WTPS21 PGTW 20080109 13:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.6S 176.1W TO 23.7S 174.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 091200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.1S 175.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.4N
175.6W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1S 175.6W, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI. A 090940Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-ORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090528Z QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AT THE STORM CENTER. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT HAD BEEN INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE
IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101330Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080110 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/MY/091321Z JAN 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z --- NEAR 21.5S 175.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 175.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 22.6S 175.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 23.9S 174.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 24.9S 172.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 25.4S 170.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 175.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
385 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
CURRENT STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND NFFN. THESE FIXES
JUSTIFY AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. THE STORM IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM AND RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
IS CURRENTLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THIS FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE STORM TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER
WATER WITH LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS WILL PREVENT ANY
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DISSIPATION OF
TC 11P BY TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 091321Z JAN 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 091330) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080110 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELISA) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z --- NEAR 22.2S 175.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 175.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 23.5S 174.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 24.5S 173.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 25.2S 171.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 25.7S 169.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 175.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (ELISA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 11P HAS UNDERGONE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS, WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST ALLOWING THIS
DEVELOPMENT. A 100616Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS LIMITED
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST
TRACK GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL
INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM HAMPERING DEVELOP-
MENT AFTER TAU 24, AND ULTIMATELY CAUSING DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080110 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELISA) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z --- NEAR 23.6S 174.3W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 174.3W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 24.7S 172.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 25.1S 171.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 25.3S 170.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 173.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (ELISA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENT STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND NFFN WHICH INDICATE A
WEAKENING TREND AND PROVIDE JUSTIFICATION FOR AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 45 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEGRAD-
ATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH-
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, AND TC 11P WILL
ALSO BEGIN MOVING OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATER. THIS INCREASE IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INTERACTION WITH LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND DEGRADED OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF TC 11P,
AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080111 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELISA) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z --- NEAR 24.2S 172.4W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 172.4W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 25.1S 170.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 25.5S 168.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 171.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (ELISA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE WEAKENING
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS WEAKENING
TREND, RESULTING IN DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 24. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS ENCOUNTERED INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 11 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_elisa_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]