Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ELNUS : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone ELNUS Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20071230 17:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 220 NM RADIUS OF 18.3S 41.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY- CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 41.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7S 42.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 41.6E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301107Z AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATE IMPROVED CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A 301459Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS BEING AIDED BY AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, WHICH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND THE EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 311730Z. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20071231 15:00z COR MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301721Z DEC 07// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 41.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASISTATIONARY POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 41.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 18.4S 40.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 19.0S 40.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 19.6S 40.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 20.4S 40.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 311500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 41.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED TO A SIGNIFICANT TC DUE TO FAVORABLE SST AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH HAS PROVIDED GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE STORM IS CAUGHT IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES TO THE WEST AND EAST. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST OF TC 09S TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OF TC 09S. THE GRADUAL TRANSITION WILL CAUSE A SLOW SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REL- ATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT POLEWARD WILL KEEP THE STORM OVER WATERS WITH FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS COUPLED WITH CONTINUED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO INTENSIFY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL, DYNAMICAL AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE HISTORICAL TRENDS OF THE REGION AND THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THIS STORM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ERRATIC MOVE- MENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 301721Z DEC 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 301730). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPELLING AND GRAMMAR IN THE REMARKS SECTION.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080101 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 19.0S 41.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 41.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 19.4S 40.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 20.0S 40.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 20.7S 40.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.6S 40.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 40.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 312202Z TRMM 37H IMAGE DEP- ICTED A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING AND IMPROVED SBC WITH A CLEAR CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER SOUTH AFRICA. TC 09S IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIR- ONMENT WITH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT 10 KNOTS PER DAY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080101 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 19.6S 40.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 40.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 20.3S 39.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 20.8S 39.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.6S 39.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 22.4S 40.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 40.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELNUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 011057Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND SHOWS THE LLCC OFFSET TO THE NORTH- WEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. TC 09S REMAINS LOCATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. TC 09S WILL REMAIN IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MELANIE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080102 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 20.1S 40.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 40.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 20.6S 39.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.4S 39.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 22.2S 39.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 22.9S 40.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 40.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELNUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON INFRA- RED IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 012319Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A WEAK, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE LLCC REMAINED DIFFICULT TO LO- CATE, THEREFORE, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN POSITIONING AND MOTION AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. TC 09S IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST REMAINING THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH NEAR THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POINT AND TC 09S SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 45 KNOTS AFTER TAU 24. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAMPER SIGNIF- CANT CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080102 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 20.5S 40.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 40.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.2S 40.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 22.2S 40.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.0S 40.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OU 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 23.7S 41.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 40.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELNUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A WEAK, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE LLCC REMAINED DIFFICULT TO LOCATE CAUSING UNCERTAINTY IN POSITIONING AND MOTION AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. TC 09S IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LOW- TO MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST REMAINING THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH NEAR THE 12-HOUR FORECAST POINT AND TC 09S SHOULD SLIGHTLY ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 45 KNOTS AFTER TAU 24. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAMPER SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080103 03:00z COR MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNING NR 006 RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNING NR 006A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 21.3S 40.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 40.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 22.1S 40.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 22.9S 41.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 23.7S 41.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 24.4S 42.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 40.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELNUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST- WARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS FAIRLY IN TACT DESPITE A TEMPORARY WEAKENING TREND. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE. RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY CONFIRMS HIGH SHEAR VALUES AS CON- VECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 021929Z ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS THE LLCC WITH WEAKER WINDS AT THE CORE AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER (35 KTS). THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY AN EQUATORWARD EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MADAGASCAR. THE STORM WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TAU 24, AND WILL CONTINUED TO BE STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 24, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT, LOWERING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z AND 040300Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SENTENCE STRUCTURE IN REMARKS.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080103 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 23.3S 41.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 41.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 24.7S 43.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 25.9S 44.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 27.0S 46.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 42.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELNUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTH- WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS A COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED OVER IT SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS ALSO CAUSED THE STORM TO TRANSITION TO A SHALLOW WARM CORE SYSTEM, OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE TRACK SPEED HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH- EAST. THE INITIAL WARNING INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED A 020646Z ASCAT PASS INDICATING 35 KNOTS OF WIND NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD BY AN EQUATORWARD EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MADAGASCAR. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT DISSIPATES OVER WATER. THE DISSIPATION WILL BE CAUSED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HINDERING OUTFLOW AND TRACK WATERS WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z AND 041500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080104 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNING NR 008 RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 25.5S 42.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 42.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.5S 43.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 42.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELNUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A DIS- ORGANIZED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 031451Z QUIK- SCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25 KNOTS AT THE CORE WITH HIGHER WINDS INDUCED BY GRADIENT FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SYSTEM PRODUCING HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE REMNANTS TO REINTENSIFY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 13 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_elnus_jtwc_advisories.htm
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