Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone FAME : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone FAME Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20080125 10:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 220 NM RADIUS OF 13.9S 44.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 251000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 44.7E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9S
45.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 44.7E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250409Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATE IMPROVED
CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. RECENT ASCAT
IMAGERY DEPICTS UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS BEING AIDED BY
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, WHICH IS PROVIDING
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND THE
EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261030Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080125 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 14.1S 44.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 44.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.3S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 14.7S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.2S 44.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.9S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 44.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FAME) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. CURRENT INTENSITY AND
POSITION ARE BASED ON RECENT DVORAK FIXES RANGING FROM 2.5 TO 3.0
AND A 251644Z SSMI IMAGE. THE STORM HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TAU 24. FROM TAU 36, MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
WILL CAUSE TC 13S TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO MADAGASCAR.
TC 13S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO GOOD EQUATOR-
WARD OUTFLOW RELATED TO THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WEST OF THE
STORM. AFTER THAT, THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNDER COMPET-
ING INFLUENCES OF GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LAND INTERACTION WITH
MADAGASCAR. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND TAU 36 LEADING TO UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE
AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH MANY OF
THE NUMERICAL MODELS INITIALIZING 13S POORLY. THIS WARNING IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON GUIDANCE FROM EGRR AND ECMWF, WHICH APPEAR TO BE
INITIALIZING THE STORM BETTER. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 251021Z JAN 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 251030). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080126 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 13.9S 44.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KT
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 44.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 14.2S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.9S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.1S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.3S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 44.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13S (FAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 260000Z SSMI/S 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS
A PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERI-
PHERIES. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY SYMMETRIC AND
WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A SMALL CIRRUS CANOPY. THE LLCC CONTINUES
TO INTENSIFY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH SUSTAINING THE STRONG VORTICITY SIGNATURE.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR VALUES, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS NEARLY QUASI-
STATIONARY BUT WILL STEER ON A MORE CONSISTENT PATH AS THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH WITH A STEERING MAX THAT WILL
GUIDE THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ACROSS
MADAGASCAR. THUS, BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48 A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECT-
ED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. THE AVNI AND
EGRI TRACKERS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARD
TRACK AND REMAIN OVER WATER. IN THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO, THE STORM
WOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080126 21:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 44.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 44.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.0S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.0S 44.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.2S 45.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.8S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 44.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES A
NEARLY SYMMETRIC AND WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A SMALL CIRRUS CANOPY.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR VALUES, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM NOW APPEARS TO BE
SLOWLY DRIFTING POLEWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
MADAGASCAR. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO TAU 24. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER NORTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR JUST AFTER TAU 24. LAND INTERACTION WILL
THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE STORM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE AVNI TRACKER SUGGESTS THE STORM WILL REMAIN OVER WATER WITH A MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE REST OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS ALL INDICATE A LANDFALL
SCENARIO AND MATCH UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED FORMAT IN REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080127 09:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 44.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 44.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.6S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.2S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.5S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.8S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 44.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTH-
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLYWOUND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SUPERB
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. A 270454Z SSMI/S 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A BANDING EYE AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE INTO THE LLCC. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE REPORTING 5.0,
4.5, AND 4.0 RESPECTIVELY. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR
TAU 12. THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT IN REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080127 21:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 44.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 44.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.7S 45.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.0S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.0S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 44.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTH-
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE TIGHTLY
WOUND CIRCULATION MADE LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST MADAGASCAR AROUND 271000Z.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY RIDGING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND TRACK TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, IT WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES BELOW SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH AROUND TAU 36, THE REMNANTS OF 13S WILL BE
MONITORED AS IT IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER WATER ON THE SOUTHEASTERN
SIDE OF MADAGASCAR. THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271800Z IS18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE14S (GULA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED GRAMMAR IN REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080128 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 46.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 46.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.4S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 46.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH-
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS BEGINNING TO
DETERIORATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER CENTRAL
MADAGASCAR. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BY TAU 12. SEVERAL OBJECTIVE AIDS INDICATE
THAT THE CIRCULATION COULD RE-EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN INDIAN
OCEAN, BUT INTO A REGION OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
IF THE STORM CAN OVERCOME THE OBSTACLES OF LAND INTERACTION AND
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RE-INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS,
WARNINGS WILL RESUME. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 20080129 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.7S 48.6E TO 22.1S 51.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 290000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.9S 49.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME)
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9S 49.1E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF
2.0/2.0 FROM PGTW AND A 282159Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGEST
THAT THE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCI-
ATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED OVER WATER, AND SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR INDICATE SURFACE
PRESSURES OF 1002 MB NEAR THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD INDUCE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, BUT THESE PROCESSES COULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE DISTURBANCE EXPERIENCES A BRIEF PERIOD
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE
TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 300200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080129 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 20.8S 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.9S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 23.2S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 24.0S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.4S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 52.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TC 13S HAS REGENERATED AND NOW HAS A DEVELOPING, SMALL CDO
OVER THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
291540Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CIMSS PRODUCTS INDICATE MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER PRIOR TO
COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS BUT IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF
THE CONSENSUS AND SLOWER DUE TO POSSIBLE FUTURE INTERACTION
WITH TC 14S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND 301500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080130 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 21.4S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.3S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 23.2S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.0S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 52.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST OF
LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 13S
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 292213Z AMSR-E
37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DECREASE IN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW RESULTING FROM AN INTRUSION OF MIDLATITUDE AIR
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ENHANCED
BY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE CENTER AND DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH
TAU 24 AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. AFTER
TAU 24, THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH TC 14S AND THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY WITH VARYING
DEGREES OF INTERACTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OVER WATER PRIOR TO COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14S (GULA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080130 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 21.8S 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 22.7S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 23.6S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.6S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 52.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 301023Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED BUT WEAKENING SYSTEM
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
THE CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DECREASE IN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW RESULTING FROM AN INTRUSION OF MIDLATITUDE AIR
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ENHANCED
BY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE CENTER AND DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INT-
ENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEER-
ING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 12 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ULTIMATELY DISSI-
PATING OVER WATER PRIOR TO COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
FORECAST IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR WHICH CONTINUES TO DEPICT
AN ERRATIC TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080131 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 22.3S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 23.2S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.1S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.1S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 26.5S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 53.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
BUT WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES HAVE SETTLED IN OVER THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
WHICH NOW APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND EXPLAINS
THE INCREASED SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS. AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ACT ON THE SYSTEM, THE
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE AND LEAD TO THE STORMS
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 48. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST OF 13S IS GOOD DUE TO THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH INTERACTION, THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL AIDS DO DIVERGE FROM EACH OTHER AND AREN\'T HANDLING
THIS SITUATION WELL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14S (GULA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080131 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 22.7S 52.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 52.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 22.6S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 23.2S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.4S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 52.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT TC 13S IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED WITH ALL CONVECTION TO ITS SOUTH-
EAST DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OUTFLOW FROM THE
MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVER TC 14S. IT IS CLEAR FROM MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AFTER 31/1200Z THAT TC 13S HAS AN EQUATORWARD COMPONENT AS
A RESULT OF ITS CLOCKWISE ROTATION WITH TC 14S. THE MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TCS 13S AND 14S. HOWEVER,
TC 14S HAS MAINTAINED SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC, WHILE 13S IS
EXPOSED. SINCE IT IS CURRENTLY DEEMED STRONGER, 14S IS FORECAST TO
BECOME THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION, WHILE 13S DISSIPATES DUE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND/OR BECOMES ABSORBED INTO 14S. THE DYNAMICAL
AIDS TRACKERS BEGIN TO FOLLOW THE SAME BROAD, MERGED VORTEX FOR BOTH
TCS 13S AND 14S AFTER ABOUT TAU 24. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHICH VORTEX WILL BE PRIMARY, THE MODELS DO CONSISTENTLY FORECAST A
REMNANT TROPICAL CIRCULATION TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR
30S AROUND TAU 36. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR TC 13S TO MOVE
BRIEFLY NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE TRAILING WEAKLY BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
FOLLOWING 14S AS IT DISSIPATES. IN ANY EVENT, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAIN-
TY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST OF BOTH 13S AND 14S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND
011500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080131 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 52.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 52.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.4S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.5S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.5S 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 52.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM WEST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS WARNING IS BEING ISSUED EARLY BECAUSE THE
TRACK FORECASTING PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY HAS
INDICATED THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF TC 13S
HAS BEGUN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS A RESULT OF DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TC 14S AND CAUSED A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 13S DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ULTIMATELY, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND CAUSE TC 13S TO TRACK
EASTWARD. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE
BOTH SYSTEMS AND STEER TC 13S SOUTHEASTWARD. OVERALL, THE DIRECT
INTERACTION OF THE TWO CYCLONES IS CREATING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERT-
AINTY IN THE FORECAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING THE INTERACTION OF THE CYCLONES AND THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF
THE OBJECTIVE AIDS. OF THOSE OBJECTIVE AIDS, NOGAPS AND GFDN APPEAR
TO BE HANDLING THE SCENARIO BEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
311800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080201 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 22.8S 54.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 54.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.2S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 54.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY ON RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY, AND
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ABSORBED INTO TC 14S. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY A
311426Z QUIKSCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LLCC WITH
20-25 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. TC 14S IS THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION AND
IS TRACKING POLEWARD TOWARD THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
DOES EXIST AS BOTH TC 13S AND 14S ARE NOW WEAK SYSTEMS AND UNDER
SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_fame_jtwc_advisories.htm
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