Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone GENE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTPS21 PGTW 20080126 22:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1S 179.4W TO 17.4S 176.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S
179.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: RECENT METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080127 21:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262221Z JAN 08//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 179.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 179.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.1S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.6S 177.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.4S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.4S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 179.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS NOW REACHED SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT,
GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE FIJI ISLANDS PRIOR TO TAU 12. THE
INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION BUT THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVENT THE STORM FROM
WEAKENING. AROUND TAU 24, THE STORM WILL BE POLEWARD OF THE FIJI
ISLANDS AND OVER FAVORABLE WARM WATERS. BY THIS TIME, THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL HAVE BUILT IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, SHIFTING THE TRACK
TO WESTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL, THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMICIAL AIDS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 262221Z
JAN 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 262230).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 280900Z AND 282100Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED
GRAMMAR IN REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080128 09:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 17.3S 178.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 178.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.3S 176.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.9S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.4S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.9S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 178.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DESPITE
LAND INTERACTION WITH FIJI. A SSMI 280728Z 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
PASS ALSO SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLLC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD, BUT LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TOWARD AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC).
ONLY A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE LOWER OHC VALUES AND CONTINUED
LACK OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND
290900Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: REMOVED REFERENCE TO
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080128 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 176.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 176.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.3S 173.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.4S 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.6S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.7S 168.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 175.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST OF
NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, NADI RADAR DATA AND A
281315Z AMSR-E IMAGE SUPPORT A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST INDICATED. IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
EAST WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
REMAINS GOOD OVERALL WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-
LOW NEAR 10S 155W, HOWEVER, POLEWARD FLOW IS RESTRICTED DUE TO
CONVERGENT FLOW SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FACTOR COMBINED WITH LAND
INTERACTION HAVE SERVED TO DISRUPT FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY
BUT CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE ESTIMATES PLUS RECENT SYNOPTIC OBSERV-
ATIONS FROM NADI INDICATING SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AT 35 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. DESPITE THE NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK, THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY IS LARGELY UN-
CHANGED WITH THE SYSTEM STEERING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER
TAU 24, THEREFORE, THE TRACK SPEEDS REFLECT A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM
CURRENT SPEEDS. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SLOWLY AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY TAP INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY UP TO 60
KNOTS BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080129 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 18.5S 175.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 175.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.8S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.0S 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.3S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.6S 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 174.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND A
290203Z MICROWAVE IMAGE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REV-
EALS GOOD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO AID IN GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT
RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS AND SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM. DESPITE THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH THE SYSTEM STEERING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE FORECAST, WHICH CALLS FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD, IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z AND 300900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080129 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 174.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 174.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.8S 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.1S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.9S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.8S 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 173.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED OVERALL CONSOLIDATION AND STRONGER DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 291719Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE
BANDING EYE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE INTENSE CONVECTION EAST OF THE
CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED DUE TO AN UPPER-LOW NEAR 10S 157W (ENHANCING EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW) AND ANOTHER LOW/TROUGH NEAR 30S 177W (ENHANCING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TC 15P CONTINUES TO TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 24 THEN
WILL TRACK INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS TROUGH WILL
DETERMINE THE RECURVATURE POINT. THEREFORE, THE DYNAMIC MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 BUT DIVERGE WITH EGRR THE
WESTERN-MOST SOLUTION AND NOGAPS THE EASTERN-MOST SOLUTION. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS AT TAU 36 AND 48. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT 5-10 KNOTS PER DAY DUE TO THE MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z AND 302100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080130 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 172.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 172.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.0S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.3S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.9S 168.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.8S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 172.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 300209Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICT GOOD CONSOLIDATION AND STRONG DEEP CON-
VECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING A WELL DEFINED BANDING EYE WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE INTENSE CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF CONTINUED GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 50 TO 77 KNOTS. TC 15P CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NOR-
THERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN WILL TRACK
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHICH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH THE APPROACH OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 BUT DIVERGE WITH
EGRR AS THE WESTERN-MOST SOLUTION AND GFDN AS THE EASTERN-MOST SOLU-
TION. DUE TO MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, TC 15P IS FORECAST TO INT-
ENSIFY GRADUALLY REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND 310900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080130 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 172.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 172.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.5S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.2S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.9S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.8S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 171.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST WARNING. MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL
DEFINED EYE FEATURE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF
CONTINUED GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 15P CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 12. THIS SOUTH-
WESTWARD TRACK IS DUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY
AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST, IT WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
FURTHER STRENGTHEN 15P. THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DYNAMICAL AIDS. THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
SINCE THE LAST FORECAST DUE TO BETTER THAN EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL EN-
VIRONMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ALSO SHIFTED TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST-
WARD TRACK WHICH IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGN-
IFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z AND
312100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080131 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 171.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 171.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.0S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.8S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.6S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 22.8S 169.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 170.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 310537Z 85 GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION, SPECIFICALLY IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH-
EAST QUADRANTS, WRAPPING INTO A BANDING EYE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON 80 TO 85-KNOT DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY REVEALS A MATURE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH AN ESTABLISHED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT-
LIVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED BY A TRANSITORY MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, CORRESPONDING WITH AN INCREASE IN
STORM INTENSITY. THIS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS BEGUN TO WANE OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS, AND THEREFORE, ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST THRU TAU 24. THE STORM IS NOW BEING STEERED ON A SLIGHTLY
MORE POLEWARD TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVIOUSLY INDUCING THE
WESTWARD TRACK HAS BEGUN TO TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. THE STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHER
WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND THE STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY TAU 36.
THE AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF GFS, WHICH KEEPS THE STORM MOVING WESTWARD LONGER BEFORE TURNING
SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 312100Z AND 010900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080131 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 170.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 170.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.4S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.1S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.9S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.9S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 170.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION, SPECIFICALLY IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS,
WRAPPING INTO A BANDING EYE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS
A MATURE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON 100 TO 105 KNOT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND NFFN. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT UNTIL TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24,
TC 15P WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WEAKENING OF THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE STORM
IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL,
THE AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080201 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 20.1S 170.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 170.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.9S 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.7S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.9S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.4S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 170.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT INFRARED ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS A
MATURE SYSTEM WITH A BANDING EYE AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A
012149Z 85 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE
37 GHZ IMAGE FROM THE SAME MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL IS
APPROXIMATELY HALF A DEGREE TO THE EAST OF THE DISCERNABLE UPPER LEVEL
CENTER. THIS DISPLACEMENT BETWEEN LEVELS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERING HIGHER SHEAR VALUES AND WILL ACCOUNT FOR
MARGINALLY LOWER INTENSITIES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BROAD RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL
ACT TO STEER THE SYSTEM ON MORE OF AN INITIAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
UNTIL THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AROUND TAU 12. OBJECTIVE MODEL AIDS HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION
REFLECTS THAT SHIFT. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z
AND 020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080201 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 20.8S 170.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 170.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.7S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.7S 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.9S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 25.1S 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 170.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MATURE SYSTEM WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. A 011728Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS MOST OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. THE STORM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND WILL PRODUCE A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 15P WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER THIS TIME, THE STORM WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY ACCELERATE. THE OBJECTIVE MODEL AIDS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE TRACK EASTWARD.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THESE OBJECTIVE AIDS
AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT IS REFLECTED IN THE TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080202 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/WTPS31 PGTW 020900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 21.8S 171.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 171.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.9S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.2S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 25.6S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 27.0S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 171.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 020504Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A MATURE SYSTEM WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH WRAPPING INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STORM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 15P WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 36, AND THEN WILL BEGIN TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CRESTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY ACCEL-
ERATING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. THE FOR-
ECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS WHICH
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080202 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 22.5S 171.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 171.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.7S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 25.2S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 26.6S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.7S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 171.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
EAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT INFRARED AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A REDUCTION IN DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKER
OUTFLOW ALOFT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
MARGINAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEREFORE A SLOW
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. TC 15P WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN WILL BEGIN
TRACKING MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THIS TIME, THE STORM WILL
SLOWLY ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
FLOW. TC 15P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION JUST AFTER
TAU 36 AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS
WHICH REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080203 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 23.6S 171.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 171.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 25.0S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 26.3S 173.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.2S 174.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 27.9S 176.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 171.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A REDUCTION IN DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKER
OUTFLOW ALOFT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
MARGINAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEREFORE A SLOW
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. TC 15P WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN WILL BEGIN
TRACKING MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THIS TIME, THE STORM WILL
SLOWLY ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
FLOW. TC 15P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 36 AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS WHICH REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080203 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 25.4S 172.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 172.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 26.9S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 28.1S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.7S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 29.0S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 172.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
375 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
RECENT INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS,
BUT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM 12 HOURS AGO. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS FROM
12 HOURS AGO HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. THIS IS DUE TO A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
TO THE EAST. THE STORM WILL BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE
NEXT 06 HOURS, AS IT BEGINS TO PASS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER HIGHER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
TC 15P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN BY TAU 24 AND THE STORM WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL
PRIOR TO TAU 48. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY ACCELERATE AS IT
BEGINS AND THEN COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE
AIDS, WHICH REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z
AND 042100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080204 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 27.4S 173.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 173.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 28.5S 175.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 29.0S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 29.2S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 29.9S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 27.7S 174.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT GOOD ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM, HOWEVER DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO GRADUALLY ABATE OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS.
THE INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS AND RECENT SCATTEROMETRY OBSER-
VATIONS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOC-
IATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED NEAR TAU 24 AND THE STORM WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL PRIOR
TO TAU 48. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS AND THEN
COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CON-
SENSUS OF AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS, WHICH REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z AND 050900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080204 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 28.0S 175.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.0S 175.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.3S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 28.4S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 175.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELL-
ITE IMAGERY DEPICT RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO SIGNIFI-
CANT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A 041818Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WEAK CONVECTION TWO DEGREES SOUTH. A 040939Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATED
40-45 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT
WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND HAS CLEARLY STARTED TO UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A FASTER ETT
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED WITH TC 15P EXPECTED TO COM-
PLETE ETT BY TAU 24. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED
BY MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS AND
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY OBSERVATIONS. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER VERY COOL SST (NEAR 24C) UNDER HIGHER SHEAR
VALUES. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080205 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 28.8S 176.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.8S 176.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 29.5S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 31.0S 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 29.0S 177.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF AUCKAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECAY-
ING SYSTEM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 050530Z QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED 40 TO
45 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS INTERACTING WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND CONTINUES TO UNDERGO EX-
TRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THIS TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU
12. THE TIMING OF THE ETT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER VERY COOL SST (NEAR
24C) UNDER HIGHER SHEAR VALUES. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS
OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080205 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 28.3S 179.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3S 179.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 28.9S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 30.5S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 28.5S 179.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
051803Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICT A DEFINED, BROADENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCUL-
ATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH-
EASTERN QUADRANT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT
THIS DRIER, COOLER AIR IS ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM CORE, AND THE
TPW AND AMSU PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CORE OF WARM, MOIST AIR
SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 050529Z
QUIKSCAT IMAGE WHICH INDICATES 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 35 KNOTS BUT APPEAR TO
BE TOO LOW DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND IS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
THIS TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24. ETT HAS
BEEN SLOW WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE UNDER WEAK MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW BUT TC 15P IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24. THE DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AFTER TAU 12 AND WILL
BE FULLY CAPTURED BY THE MIDLATIUDE TROUGH. TC 15P WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD OVER VERY COOL SST (NEAR 24C). THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 051800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20080206 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (GENE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 30.2S 175.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2S 175.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 32.7S 171.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 30.8S 174.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM NORTH-
EAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO
THE CENTER AS THE SYSTEM IS NOW FULLY EMBEDDED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LOST ALL TROPICAL CHARACTERISTIC AND BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP INTO A SIG-
NIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON TRACK AND INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_gene_jtwc_advisories.htm
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