Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone GUBA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone GUBA Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20071113 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7S 150.9E TO 12.7S 147.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 130100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6S 150.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9S
152.4E, HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 10.6S 150.2E, APPROXIMATELY 460
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
CONSOLIDATED AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST 06 TO 12 HOURS.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 121955Z (WINDSAT 37H) AND 121521Z (AMSR
-E) INDICATE THAT THE LLCC HAS CONSOLIDATED AND TRACKED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA, UNFORTUNATELY, SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE SPARSE. HOWEVER, A SHIP REPORT FROM THE CAPE
DENISON (10.0S 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 170NM EAST OF THE LLCC) SHOWS
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 19 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR 1007MB. THE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. LAND IS CURRENTLY HINDERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS.
THEREFORE, THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY
AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CORAL SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 140200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071113 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130151ZNOV07//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 11.5S 148.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 148.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 12.1S 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.7S 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.3S 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.9S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 148.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE T-
NUMBERS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 131200Z CIRA INTENSITY ESTIMATE
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAVE REACHED 35 KNOTS. TC 02P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN END OF THIS STEERING RIDGE AND
INDUCE A SLOW POLEWARD TURN AFTER TAU 24. FORWARD MOTION SHOULD
SLOW AS THE STORM NEARS THE RIDGE AXIS, AS REFLECTED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS
THE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES
TO CONSOLIDATE AND CONVECTION REDEVELOP IN A REGION OF MARGINAL
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. HOWEVER, GOOD POLEWARD OUTLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A MORE PRONOUNCED
INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE STEERING
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 130151Z NOV 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071114 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 11.2S 147.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 147.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 11.5S 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 12.0S 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 12.8S 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 13.6S 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 146.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPSLOPE CONVECTION ALONG THE OWEN STANLEY
RANGE OF SOUTHEASTERN PAPUA NEW GUINEA EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BANDING AND DISORGANIZED LLCC. TC 02P
IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
WESTERN END OF THIS STEERING RIDGE AND INDUCE A SLOW POLEWARD
TURN AFTER NEAR TAU 24. FORWARD MOTION SHOULD SLOW AS THE STORM
NEARS THE RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AND DISRUPTION OF INFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HOWEVER, GOOD POLEWARD OUTLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24
AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071114 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (GUBA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 10.6S 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 10.7S 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 11.0S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 11.6S 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 12.5S 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 146.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (GUBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF AND RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED
ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5/2.5 FROM PGTW AND 2.0/3.0 FROM
ABRF AND A 141200Z CIRA MULTIPLATIFORM SATELLITE WIND ESTIMATE
OF 37 KNOTS. TC 02P CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALLOWING THE STORM TO TAKE A POLE-
WARD TURN. TC 02P WILL MOVE SLOWLY FORWARD AS IT PROGRESSES
THROUGH THIS ANTICIPATED TURN. IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO OFFSET THE
LIMITING INFLUENCES OF LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR SLOW INTENSIFI-
CATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071115 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (GUBA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 10.7S 145.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 145.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 11.0S 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 11.4S 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.8S 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.1S 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 145.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (GUBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND ABRF AND RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5/2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES,
AND 3.0/3.0 FROM ABRF. TC 02P IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND DESPITE THE NOTED TRACK SPEED OF 02 KNOTS ACTUALLY
HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TO VERY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH-
WARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LIMITING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND RESTRICTED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST OF
PAPUA NEW GUINEA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071115 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (GUBA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 10.9S 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASISTATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 11.1S 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.3S 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.6S 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.9S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 146.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (GUBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
POSITION ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, ABRF, AND RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0/3.0 FROM PGTW, ABRF AND KNES.
TC 02P REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TAU 48. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER THIS TIME, RIDGING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST-
WARD MORE RAPIDLY. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND
RESTRICTED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS
REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, BUT THEN DIVERGE. THE
NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS ARE THE WESTWARD OUTLIERS, AS THEY TRACK
THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE AIDS DEPICT
MORE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE
CONSENSUS AND FAVORS A SLOWER, MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160300Z AND 161500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071116 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (GUBA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 11.0S 146.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 146.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.1S 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.4S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.9S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.4S 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 146.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (GUBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
POSITION ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, ABRF, AND RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.5/3.5 FROM PGTW, 3.0/3.0 FROM
KNES, AND 3.0/3.5 FROM ABRF. TC 02P REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WILL PERSIST IN THE EARLY PERIOD. AFTER TAU
24, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LIMITED
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND RESTRICTED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
OBJECTIVE AIDS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, BUT THEN
DIVERGE. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-
WEST, THE GFS MODEL TRACKS THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE
EGRR TRACKER REMAINING QUASISTATIONARY NEAR THE CURRENT LOCATION.
THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE CONSENSUS WITH A SLOW, GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071116 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (GUBA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 11.5S 146.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASISTATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 146.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.8S 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.2S 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.5S 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.9S 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 146.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (GUBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND ABRF, AS WELL AS A 161046Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE PRESENCE OF A 10 NM EYE
PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
4.5/4.5 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF. TC 02P REMAINS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WILL PERSIST AND THEREFORE THE STORM
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, BUT MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
THE OBJECTIVE AIDS REFLECT THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND ARE
IN POOR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF
THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071117 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (GUBA) WARNING NR 008 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (GUBA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 11.4S 147.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 147.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.7S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.1S 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.4S 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 12.8S 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 147.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (GUBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 77 KNOTS AND
A 161944Z AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND IS CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 162156Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A
MICROWAVE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF MODERATE CONVECTION. TC 02P
REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUES TO
DISPLAY ERRATIC MOVEMENT. THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE IS THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-
WESTWARD SLOW TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 02P IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE OFFSETTING
INFLUENCES OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48 BUT DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARDS DUE TO THE CONTINUED
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071117 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (GUBA) WARNING NR 008 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (GUBA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 11.8S 147.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 147.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.2S 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.7S 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.1S 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 13.4S 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 147.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (GUBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTH-
EASTWARD OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON THE AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING, BUT MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171034Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. TC 02P
REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUES TO
DISPLAY ERRATIC MOVEMENT. THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE REMAINS
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERALLY SLOW SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 02P IS FORECAST
TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE OFFSETTING
INFLUENCES OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
TWO MAJOR GROUPINGS. THE TCLAPS AND ECMWF TRACKERS REFLECT A WEAKER
STORM AND A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH TAU 48.
THE NOGAPS, GFDN, AND WBAR INDICATE A STRONGER STORM WITHIN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THEREFORE TRACK THE STORM TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH TAU 48. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071118 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (GUBA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 146.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 146.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.1S 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.5S 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.0S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 14.2S 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 146.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (GUBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A TIGHTLY-
WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS APPROXIMATELY
180NM DIAMETER WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER. TC 02P REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
AND CONTINUES TO DISPLAY ERRATIC MOVEMENT. THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE REMAINS THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A SLOW
SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 02P IS FORECAST
TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE OFFSETTING
INFLUENCES OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 181500Z AND 190300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071118 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (GUBA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 13.0S 146.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 146.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.0S 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 12.9S 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 12.6S 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 12.1S 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 146.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (GUBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTEN-
SITY ARE BASED ON RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW
AND ABRF AND A 181200Z CIRA MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE WIND
ESTIMATE. TC 02P HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERI-
PHERAL WINDS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE PAST 06
TO 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS INCREASING SHEAR, AND LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
NEAR THE STILL WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THIS WEAKENING AND CONSEQUENT SHALLOWING OF THE SYSTEM IS
LOWERING THE STEERING LEVEL, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE AND GRADUALLY TURN THE STORM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST,
WHICH ANTICIPATED A DEEPER SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY PATTERN. GOOD LOW
LEVEL VORTICITY, SUFFICIENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE TEMPERING THE EFFECTS OF
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RESULT IN AN OVERALL SLOW
WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z
AND 191500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20071119 03:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (GUBA) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTION
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 11.9S 144.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 144.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.2S 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 144.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (GUBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SMALL BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A 190011Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS A
WEAK LLCC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 25 TO 45 KNOTS. TC 02P HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION AND MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS
WEAKER SYSTEM IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES AND HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. TC 02P IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12.THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON-
ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 12 FEET. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
CORRECTED LOCATION AND MOVEMENT IN THE REMARKS SECTION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_guba_jtwc_advisories.htm
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