Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone HELEN : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone HELEN Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20080103 15:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2S 127.3E TO 13.8S 130.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 031200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 127.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 14.2S 127.5E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE WYNDHAM RADAR SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING, CURRENTLY OVER LAND, HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE WITH A NEWLY DEVELOPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A RECENT 85 GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WRAP- PINGINTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO THE WARM WATERS OF THE TIMOR SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION AND THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OVER WATER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 041530Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080103 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 001 RMKS/ REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031521Z JAN 08// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 127.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 127.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 13.5S 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 13.1S 131.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 13.4S 133.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 14.3S 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 128.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. IMAGERY FROM THE WYNDHAM RADAR INDICATES THE WELL- DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND INTO THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF. ALSO, A 031442Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELO- PMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC TURNING SUPERIMPOSED OVER THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH HAD BEEN THE PREVIOUS WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE HAS SINCE WEAKENED DUE TO AN ADVANCING TROUGH, ALLOWING THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER WATER THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE IT CROSSES BACK OVER LAND. NEAR TAU 48 THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 13 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 031521Z JAN 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 031530). NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080104 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HELEN) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 13.2S 128.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 128.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 12.8S 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 12.8S 134.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 13.3S 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 14.5S 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 129.5E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z AND 050900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELNUS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080104 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HELEN) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 131.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 131.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 13.3S 134.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 13.7S 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 14.4S 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 15.5S 142.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 131.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (HELEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FORM PGTW AND ABRF, RADAR IMAGERY FROM DARWIN, AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE STORM. STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLU- ENCE. THIS STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN A GENERALLY EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. TC 10S WILL WEAKEN OVER LAND BEFORE REEMERGING OVER WARM WATER IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AROUND TAU 18. THE STORM IS MOVING EAST OF A SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER AND WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS A RESULT. PASSAGE OVER LAND DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE STORM FROM DEVELOPING A STRONG OUTFLOW BUFFER AGAINST THIS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT CROSSES INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE SYSTEM WILL AGAIN MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA JUST PRIOR TO TAU 48 AND BEGIN DISSIPATING THEREAFTER. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080105 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HELEN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 13.6S 133.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 133.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 13.6S 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 14.1S 138.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 15.1S 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 16.6S 142.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 134.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10S (HELEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TD 10S HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER CENTRAL ARNHEM LAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA NEAR TAU 12, AND REINTENSIFY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. AFTER CROSSING INTO THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20080105 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HELEN) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 13.5S 136.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 136.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 13.9S 139.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 14.6S 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 15.4S 141.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 16.0S 141.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 137.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (HELEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND ADRM, RADAR IMAGERY FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA, AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AREA AFFECT- ED BY THE STORM INDICATE THAT TC 10S HAS REEMERGED OVER WATER IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WEAK- ENED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TAU 36, CARRYING THE STORM EASTWARD TOWARD THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. HOWEVER, FORWARD MOTION SHOULD SLOW IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO REORGANIZE OVER WATER AND LATER IN THE FORE- CAST PERIOD AS A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO EXERT A COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE. BY TAU 48, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL BECOME WELL-ESTABLISHED, AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE STORM WEST- WARD AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. THE EXACT STORM TRACK DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE STORM. IF THIS RIDGE DEVELOPS QUICKLY, THE STORM MAY REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, TURNING WESTWARD BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. TC 10S IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLES TO REORGANIZE UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE TO HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND UNFAVORABLE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE STORM MAY EXPERI- ENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA AS IT PASSES OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OBSERVED NEAR THE COAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20080106 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HELEN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 13.6S 140.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 140.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 14.5S 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 15.6S 142.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 140.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (HELEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 10S HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS REMAINED BROAD AFTER CROSSING INTO THE GULF, AND IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO CONSOLIDATE PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL IN CAPE YORK NEAR TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON- ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 10 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_helen_jtwc_advisories.htm
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