Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone HONDO : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone HONDO Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20080204 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 80.6E TO 15.5S 78.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 032330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 80.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 81.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 80.2E, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW FLARING CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH WAS EVIDENT IN PREVIOUS MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. A 040112Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGIN- NING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A 031300Z QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMS THIS CIRCULATION CENTER AND DEPICTS AN AREA OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE DEVELOPING LLCC, WHICH IS NOW LOCATED IN A NARROW REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 050300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080204 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040251Z FEB 08// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 79.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 79.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 13.6S 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 13.8S 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 13.8S 81.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 14.0S 82.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 80.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL ORGA- NIZED SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCU- LATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTION HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS LOWERED THE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A WEAK STEERING ENVI- RONMENT FROM THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL SLOWLY CAUSE THE STORM TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW TC 16S TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 040251Z FEB 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 040300) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080205 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 80.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 80.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 13.6S 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 13.7S 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 13.8S 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 13.9S 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 80.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH- EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041955Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE EAST INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A CLEAR LOW-LEVEL CIRC- ULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER WITH IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LOW NEAR 17S 68E. TC 16S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND THE NER SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS REFLECT THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND INDICATE QUASI-STATIONARY OR VERY SLOW TRACK SPEEDS THROUGH TAU 24 THEN SLIGHT ACCELERATION THROUGH TAU 48. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12 BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE AS THE UPPER-LOW SHIFTS WEST, ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK AND THE LIKELY TRACK EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080205 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040251Z FEB 08// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 80.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 80.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 13.8S 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 13.8S 82.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 13.9S 82.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 14.1S 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 81.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTH- EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTEN- SIFICATION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM FMEE, KNES AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL MESO-ANTICYCLONE JUST EAST OF CENTER AND GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THIS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY. TC 16S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND REFLECT THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY SLOW EASTWARD TRACK SPEEDS. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THIS CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080206 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 81.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 81.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 14.2S 81.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 14.3S 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 14.5S 82.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.8S 83.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 81.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTH- EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING PINPOINT EYE. A 060046Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN EYEWALL WITH GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE HIGH-CONFIDENCE EYE POSITION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD COURSE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM BUT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT A 15 KNOT PER DAY RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080206 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 81.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 81.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 14.4S 82.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 14.6S 82.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.9S 83.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 15.3S 84.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 81.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM SOUTH- EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METSAT AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE GIVING THE INITIAL POSITION A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUT- FLOW ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080206 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 82.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 82.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 14.7S 82.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 14.9S 83.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.2S 83.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 15.7S 84.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 82.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 705 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND RESULTANT HIGHER FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE DEPARTURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW EN- HANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE MAINTAINING INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TAU 48 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080207 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 007 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 82.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 82.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 15.0S 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.4S 84.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.0S 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 16.7S 86.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 82.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16S HAS MAINTAINED A CONSISTENT INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENV- IRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TAU 48 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080207 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 008 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 82.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 82.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.2S 83.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 15.7S 84.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 16.6S 84.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.8S 85.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 83.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, AND HAS TAKEN ON ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS. TC 16S IS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A SLOW POLEWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED NEAR TAU 24 WITH ACCELERATION TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH OCCURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080208 09:00z COR MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 009A CORRECTED 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 15.1S 83.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 83.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 15.6S 84.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 16.6S 85.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.9S 86.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 19.3S 86.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 83.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 802 NM SOUTH- EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF TC 16S HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH IS SEEN IN MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WHICH DEPICT THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE STORM. TC 16S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN A POLE- WARD TURN AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST- WARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH OCCURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTI- FICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED ERROR IN WAVE HEIGHT IN REMARKS. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080208 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 010 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 84.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 84.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 16.7S 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.9S 85.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 19.3S 85.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 20.5S 85.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 84.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM SOUTH- EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A SYMMETRIC AND MATURE SYSTEM WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. A 081456Z 85 GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE WELL-DEFINED EYE. HOWEVER, RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REFLECTED A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE MODEL AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON STIPS, WHICH FORECASTS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE STORM TRACKS TOWARD LOWER, BUT STILL ADEQUATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080209 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 011 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 85.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 85.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.1S 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 19.6S 86.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 21.1S 86.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 22.1S 85.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 85.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 940 NM SOUTH- EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY REVEALS A SYMMETRIC AND MATURE SYSTEM WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE. HOWEVER, RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REFLECTED A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLER WATERS AND THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DECREASES. THIS FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE MODEL AIDS, WHICH REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OVERALL THE FORECAST HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080209 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/WTXS31 PGTW 092100 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 012 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 86.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 86.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 19.6S 86.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 20.8S 86.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 21.8S 85.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 22.5S 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 86.5E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 40 FEET. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL, IRREGULAR AND RAGGED EYE WITH DECREASED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND CONTINUED GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A 091443Z SSMI/S PASS REVEALS A SLIGHT DISPLACEMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE EYE DUE TO THE HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ON A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AND THEN TO BEGIN TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AROUND TAU 36. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IN A CONTINUED MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080210 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 013 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 86.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 86.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 21.9S 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 23.0S 85.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 23.7S 84.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 23.9S 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 86.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1130 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED EYE WITH DECREASED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND CONTINUED GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A 100156Z SSMIS PASS REVEALS A SLIGHT SOUTH- WARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE EYE-WALL DUE TO THE HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWEST THEN WEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. THE STORM WILL WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS OVER MARGINAL WATERS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO INCREASE. OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080210 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 014 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 86.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 86.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 22.8S 85.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 23.5S 84.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 23.6S 83.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 23.5S 82.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 86.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1200 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION NOW SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, A 101429Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE STILL INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI- CYCLONE SITUATED ITS EAST. WITHIN THE FIRST 12 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTHWEST INDUCING A MORE WESTWARD STEERING COMPONENT. TC 16S HAS ALREADY WEAKENED MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS IT TRACKS THROUGH LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A REGION OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080211 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 015 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 23.0S 86.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 86.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 24.0S 85.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 24.2S 84.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 24.0S 83.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 86.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1220 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED TO ITS EAST. WITHIN THE FIRST 12 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH- WEST INDUCING A MORE WESTWARD STEERING COMPONENT. TC 16S HAS WEAK- ENED MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A REGION OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080211 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 016 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 24.4S 85.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 85.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 24.5S 84.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 23.8S 83.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 23.0S 82.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 85.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1310 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ALL AVAILABLE DATA CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER STILL REMAINS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING POLEWARD, BUT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST IS BEGINNING TO INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD STEERING COMPO- NENT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A REGION OF HIGH VERT- ICAL WIND SHEAR. NEAR TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080212 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 24.6S 85.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 85.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 24.1S 84.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 84.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1255 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRC- ULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 16S CONTINUES TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AFFECTS THE LLCC. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS21 PGTW 20080222 08:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210821Z FEB 08// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 210830)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5S 59.7E TO 21.5S 57.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 220530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 59.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 60.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 59.7E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT IMAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC AND FLARING CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 230830Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080223 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 58.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 58.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 21.0S 56.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.5S 54.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 24.7S 52.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 27.3S 51.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 57.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SMALL SYSTEM REGAINED WARNING STATUS AFTER A FLARE OF CONVECTION FORMED (AND PERSISTED) NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 30 KNOTS AND 40 KNOTS, AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, A 230100Z OBSERVATION FROM FIMP (APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE TC CENTER) RECORDED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 27 KNOTS (GUSTING TO 41 KNOTS). THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE EAST OF TC 16S. ONLY MODEST SHORT- TERM INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BUT WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING (WHICH HAS LIMITED SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS). TC 16S WILL ENCOUNTER A SHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AFTER TAU 36 AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080223 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 55.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 55.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 21.9S 53.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 23.8S 51.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 25.8S 50.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 55.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SMALL SYSTEM INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVELS ARE NOW BEING DISTORTED BY THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION HAS WANED. SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 40 TO 50 KNOTS, AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MOVEMENT OVER COOLER WATER WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 36. OVERALL, THE OBJECTIVE AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080224 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 22.8S 54.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 54.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 25.1S 52.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 27.6S 51.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 53.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT TC 16S TRACKED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE LA REUNION. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ISLAND. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD TOWARD UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, MAKING RE-INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12 FEET.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_hondo_jtwc_advisories.htm
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