Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone IVAN : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone IVAN Track Map and Data |
WTXS22 PGTW 20080207 01:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3S 59.4E TO 13.3S 64.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 59.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.5S 58.2E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLI- DATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING EQUATORWARD AND DEVELOPING BANDS POLEWARD OF THE CENTER. A 062121Z AMSR-E 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH THE AFORMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BANDING. PREVIOUS QUIKSCAT IMAGES DEPICTED 25 TO 30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN IMPINGING ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD, WHICH WILL CREATE AN EVEN MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRON- MENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE AND IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 080130Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080207 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070121Z FEB 08// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 001 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 12.9S 60.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 60.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.4S 63.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 13.6S 65.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 13.5S 67.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 13.2S 69.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 61.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070136Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICT A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTI- MATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGE DEPICTING 25 TO 30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH- OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 070121Z FEB 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 070130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW), AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080207 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 14.5S 62.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 62.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.1S 63.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 15.1S 64.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 14.6S 66.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 14.2S 67.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 62.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM SOUTH- WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S HAS UNDERGONE CONSIDERABLE DEVELOPMENT SINCE THE LAST WARNING FROM THIS AGENCY, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE LIKE FEATURE WHICH SUPPORTS THIS ESTIMATED WIND SPEED. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORE- CAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, THE DEVELOPMENT OF DUAL OUT-FLOW CHANNELS IS POSSIBLE AND MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080208 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 003 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 63.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 63.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 15.9S 63.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 16.4S 63.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.9S 63.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.5S 63.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 63.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM SOUTH- WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS, WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS. A 080402Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE WEST WHICH SUPPORTS THIS ESTIMATED WIND SPEED. THE TRACK OF TC 18S HAS SHIFTED FROM PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TRACKS AND THE SYSTEM NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING INFLUENCE FROM THE MID-LEVEL NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, AND THEN BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST FURTHER STRENGTHENS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE, AND THUS TC 16S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080208 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 63.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 63.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 16.3S 62.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.1S 62.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 15.9S 62.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 15.7S 62.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 63.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM SOUTH- WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. A 081447Z SSMI 85 GHZ PASS SHOWS A DEVELOPING BANDING EYE. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DUE IN PART TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST REFLECTS AN EVEN SLOWER TRACK THAN THE PREVIOUS. THE AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT; AND THEIR LARGE SPREAD IS USUALLY INDICATIVE OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WEAK STEERING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18P WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080209 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 005 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 63.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 63.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 15.6S 63.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 15.3S 63.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 15.2S 63.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 15.2S 64.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 63.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM SOUTH- WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO BE IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE AIDS IS USUALLY INDICATIVE OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WEAK STEERING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TC 18S TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080209 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 006 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 63.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 63.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 15.3S 64.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 15.1S 64.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 14.9S 64.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 14.7S 64.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 63.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTH- WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED ON THE MOST RECENT 091420Z 37 GHZ SSMI PASS, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN LOWER DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN IN A REGION OF COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 18S IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A GENERALLY EASTWARD, BUT SLOW TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY FASTER AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080210 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 007 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 64.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 64.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 14.8S 64.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 14.6S 65.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 14.5S 65.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.3S 65.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 64.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTH- WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN IN A REGION OF COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES BETWEEN THE SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 18S IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH HAS LIMITED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. A GENERALLY EASTWARD, BUT SLOW TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DUE TO WEAK- ENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. OBJECTIVE AIDS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080210 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 008 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 64.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 64.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 14.4S 65.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 14.3S 65.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.2S 65.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 14.3S 64.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 65.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM SOUTH- WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 101613Z SSMI/S 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ONCE AGAIN SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A BANDING EYE. THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR TC 18S. THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS ALL FORECAST A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE STORM, BUT DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS TURN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, THE FORECAST TRACK STAYS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, ESPECIALLY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080211 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 009 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 14.2S 65.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 65.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 14.0S 65.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 13.9S 64.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 13.9S 64.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 14.0S 64.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 65.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY REVEALS AN EYE FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY UNTIL AFTER TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS ALL FORECAST A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE STORM, BUT DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS TURN. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, ESPECIALLY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080211 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 010 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 64.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 64.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.2S 64.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 14.0S 63.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 13.7S 62.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 13.7S 61.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 64.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIR- ONMENT BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK NEAR TAU 12 AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THE STORM WILL INTESIFY VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INHIBITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 48, THE INTENSIFICATION RATE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVING IN SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080212 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 14.1S 64.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 64.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 13.9S 63.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 13.8S 62.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 13.8S 61.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.0S 60.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 64.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S IS BEGINNING TO TRACK MORE RAPIDLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS, INDUCING A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER AN AREA OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS EXPEC- TED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080212 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 012 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 63.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 63.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 13.8S 62.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 13.7S 61.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 13.9S 59.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.3S 58.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 63.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM NORTH- EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS, MAINTAINING A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM HAS FURTHER WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER AN AREA OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD, AN APPROAC- HING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080213 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 62.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 62.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 13.7S 60.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.0S 59.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.5S 57.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.2S 55.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 61.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM NORTH- EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY POLE- WARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT CONTINUES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. TC 18S HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE DUAL INFLUENCES OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. HOWEVER, THE STORM WILL CROSS OVER HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND APPROACH A REGION OF LOWER VER- TICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AFTER TAU 12. THESE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU 36. THERE- AFTER, INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW THE STORM INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080213 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 60.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 60.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 13.7S 59.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.2S 57.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 14.9S 55.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 15.5S 54.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 60.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM NORTH- EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND A BANDING EYE IS NOW EVIDENT IN A 13/1512Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTERWARDS REGARDING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF A POLEWARD TURN. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080214 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 59.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 59.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 13.9S 57.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 14.6S 56.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 15.2S 54.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 15.6S 53.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 59.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PGTW AND KNES INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE TC 18S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND MOVEMENT OVER WATER WITH HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080214 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 57.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 57.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.0S 55.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 15.5S 54.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 15.8S 53.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.0S 52.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 57.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH SUPERB RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WELL TO THE EAST APPEARS TO BE ACTING AS AN ADDITIONAL MASS SINK. A 14/1450Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A BANDING EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080215 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 55.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 55.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.0S 54.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.4S 52.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.6S 51.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.8S 50.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 55.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MESAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED INTENS- IFICATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE A BANDING EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTH- WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080215 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 53.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 53.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.6S 52.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.8S 51.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.8S 49.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 16.9S 48.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 53.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONT- INUED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A BANDING EYE DEVELOPING WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONF- INED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICA- TION THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN NEAR TAU 36 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080216 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/ RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 16.4S 53.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 53.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.8S 51.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.1S 50.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.5S 49.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.9S 48.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 19.0S 46.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 52.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFI- CATION THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080216 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 52.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 52.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.3S 51.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.5S 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 16.8S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 17.4S 47.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 19.1S 46.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 52.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORE- CAST PERIOD, TURNING POLEWARD OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR AFTER TAU 36. TC 18S CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO FAVORABLY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND EXCELLENT, RADIAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW DRIVEN BY A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24 AND STEADILY WEAKENING OVER LAND THERAFTER. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANGE IN THE ANTICIPATED EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080216 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 51.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 51.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.7S 50.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 16.8S 48.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.3S 47.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 18.0S 47.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 19.7S 46.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 51.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TURNING POLEWARD OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR AFTER TAU 24. TC 18S HAS RAPIDLY INTEN- SIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO FAVORABLY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND EXCELLENT, RADIAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW DRIVEN BY A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24 AND STEADILY WEAKEN OVER LAND THERAFTER. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080216 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 022 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 51.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 51.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.0S 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.3S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 17.7S 47.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 18.4S 46.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 20.2S 46.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 50.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S CONT- INUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PER- IPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED AROUND TAU 12. AFTER THAT, TC 18S WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER MADAGASCAR WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED AROUND TAU 72. THIS FORECASTIS SUPPORTED BY THE OBJECTIVE AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080217 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 023 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 50.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 50.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.3S 49.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.9S 47.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 18.6S 45.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 19.3S 44.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 20.0S 44.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 50.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S CONT- INUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PER- IPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED BEFORE TAU 12. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STORM WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, WEAKEN OVER MADAGASCAR, AND ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AROUND TAU 72. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS. THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080217 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 024 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 49.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 49.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.4S 48.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.1S 46.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 19.1S 45.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.0S 44.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.4S 43.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 49.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTH- WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL ON NOSY SAINTE MARIE ISLAND AND IS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST OF MAINLAND MADAGASCAR NEAR THE TOWN OF SOANIERANA-IVONGO. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE STORM MAY REEMERGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO LAND AND SHOULD THEREFORE WEAKEN BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS. THUS, THE CURRENT WARNING CALLS FOR DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48 BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION AFTER PASSAGE ACROSS THE ISLAND REMAINS. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080217 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 025 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 48.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 48.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.6S 47.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 18.5S 45.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 19.2S 45.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 20.1S 44.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 48.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER LAND. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TAKES AN UNANTICIPATED TRACK AND REEMERGES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SOME REGENERATION MAY OCCUR. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL VERY LIKELY REMAIN OVER LAND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080217 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 026 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 48.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 48.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.3S 46.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 19.1S 45.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.0S 44.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 20.7S 44.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 47.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STORM. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER LAND AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WEAKENING BELOW 35 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36 AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING OVER LAND SHORTLY NEAR TAU 48. WHILE ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER LAND, SHOULD THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TAKE AN UNANTICIPATED TRACK AND REEMERGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SOME REGENERATION MAY OCCUR. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080218 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 027 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 47.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 47.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 19.1S 45.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 20.3S 44.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 21.2S 44.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 46.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STORM. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER LAND AND CONTINUE TO DEGRADE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WEAKENING BELOW 35 KNOTS AFTER TAU 24 AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING OVER LAND NEAR TAU 36. WHILE ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER LAND, SHOULD THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TAKE AN UNANTICIPATED TRACK AND REEMERGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SOME REGENERATION MAY OCCUR. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080218 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 028 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 18.6S 46.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 46.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 19.6S 45.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.6S 44.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 46.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PER- IPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER LAND AND CONTINUE TO DEGRADE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WEAKENING BELOW 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO TAU 12 AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING OVER LAND NEAR TAU 24. AFTER THE ANTICIPATED DISSIPATION, THE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL EMERGENCE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND REGENERATION MAY OCCUR. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080218 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 029 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 46.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 46.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 20.1S 45.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 46.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN. THE FORECAST IS BASED UPON AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LAND AS IT WEAKENS BELOW SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BY TAU 12. AFTER THE ANTICIPATED DISSIPATION, THE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR REGENERATION AS THE POTENTIAL FOR EMERGENCE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL STILL REMAINS. NEXT WARNING AT 182100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20080218 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 030 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 45.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 45.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.5S 44.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 45.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IVAN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT SURFACE SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED BELOW 35 KNOTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ANTANANARIVO AT CPA (ABOUT 40 NM) INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 43 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP NEAR 1003 MB. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGHLY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH FLARING CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS TRACK THE REMNANTS OF TC 18S INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL NEAR TAU 24, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_ivan_jtwc_advisories.htm
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