Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone JOKWE : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone JOKWE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20080304 16:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/041621ZMAR2008// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4S 55.7E TO 12.2S 49.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 55.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.4S 55.4E, APPROXIMATELY 670 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN A 041013Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE LLCC LIES NORTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE AND INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 051630Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080305 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041621ZMAR2008// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 11.9S 53.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 53.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 12.2S 51.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 12.4S 49.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 12.7S 47.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 13.3S 45.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 52.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST. THIS DISPLACEMENT IS DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LIMITING FACTOR OF THE SHEAR IS BEING OFFSET BY FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC 22S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK WILL CAUSE LAND FALL AROUND TAU 24 TO THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL AFTER WHICH LAND INTERACTION WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THE STORM WILL REMERGE INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL PRIOR TO TAU 36 AND INTENSIFY DUE TO A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 041621ZMAR2008 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 041630) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080305 15:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 002 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 11.9S 50.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 50.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 12.1S 48.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 12.5S 46.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 13.2S 44.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 14.0S 42.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 50.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY TOWARD A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 22S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO DECREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME LIMITATION IMPOSED BY LAND INTERACTION AND PERSISTENT, THOUGH MODERATE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 24, THE STORM MAY EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSI- FICATION AS IT MOVES UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND OVER VERY WARM WATER IN THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY-PACKED NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, WHICH ESTIMATES A STRONGER INTENSIFICATION TREND DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080306 03:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 12.1S 49.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 49.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 12.3S 47.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 12.5S 45.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 13.0S 43.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 13.6S 41.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 48.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTH- WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM TOWARD A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED SLI- GHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INTERACTION WI- TH LAND. AS TC 22S MOVES WEST OVER THE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOU- ND IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS IMPROVED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND MODERATE, VERTI- CAL WIND SHEAR. THIS INTENSIFICATION WILL BE AIDED BY THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WHICH WILL MOVE IN OVER THE STORM ASS- ISTING WITH OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TIGHT- LY-PACKED NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SL- IGHTLY ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEI- GHT AT 060000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080306 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 46.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 46.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 14.7S 44.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 15.6S 42.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.4S 40.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 17.3S 39.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 46.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION NEAR TAU 48. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY AFTER CROSSING OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR NEARLY 12 HOURS AGO. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM ALL AVAILABLE AGENCIES. TC 22S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG ITS TRACK. GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER THIS TIME, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE OFFSETTING INFLUENCES OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY-PACKED NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080307 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 45.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 45.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 15.8S 43.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.7S 41.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 17.5S 39.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 18.8S 39.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 44.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST- WARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION NEAR TAU 48. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 65 AND 77 KNOTS. TC 22S WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THE INLFUENCES OF AN AREA OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT NEAR TAU 24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY-PACKED NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080307 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 006 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 42.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 42.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.4S 41.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.5S 39.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 17.7S 38.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.9S 38.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 42.4E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080307 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 14.8S 42.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 42.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.6S 40.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.8S 39.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.9S 38.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 19.0S 38.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 41.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS ONCE AGAIN INTENSIFIED AND IS DISPLAYING A 07 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 TO 102 KNOTS FROM THE AVAILABLE FIX AGENCIES. TC 22S WILL MAINTAIN THIS STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE STORM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE BY TAU 36 AND MAINTAIN STRENGTH FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BELOW THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LAND INTERACTION. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES OVER THE FIRST 24 HOURS ARE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080308 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 008 RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 40.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 40.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.2S 39.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.2S 38.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.5S 38.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 19.7S 37.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 40.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AT 08/06Z, THE STORM EXHIBITED A SMALL, 7 NM DIAMETER EYE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE PRESENT STEERING RIDGE TOWARD THE BASE OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM CENTER ACROSS LAND IN NORTHEASTERN MOZAMBIQUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL REEMERGE OVER WATER, WHERE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL COMPETE WITH FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW TO HOLD STORM INTENSITY NEARLY STEADY. THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO DIVERGE, WITH NOGAPS AND GFDN PREDICTING WEST-SOUTH- WESTWARD TRACK AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER LAND AND THE OTHER MODELS PREDICTING AN EVENTUAL POLEWARD RECURVATURE. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO DUE TO THE PREDICTED INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE BASED ON THE ANTICIPATION OF HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE LAND INTERACTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080308 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 008 RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 39.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 39.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.4S 39.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.5S 38.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 19.6S 38.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 20.5S 38.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 39.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TOWARD A RECENTLY DEVELOPED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM CENTER BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE IN THE NEXT 06 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION. ONCE BACK OVER THE FAVORABLE WATERS OF THE CHANNEL, INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE AID OF THE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW SUPPLIED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW. AFTER TAU 24, THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL OFFSET THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WARM WATERS AS THE STORM BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF THE STORM WHILE OVER LAND. OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080309 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 39.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 39.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.5S 39.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 19.8S 38.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 21.0S 38.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 22.1S 37.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 39.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST- WARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STORM CENTER HAS REEMERGED OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER MOVING OVER NORTHEASTERN MOZAMBIQUE FOR ABOUT 18 HOURS. PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOP- ING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST HAVE ALLOWED THE STORM TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY DESPITE THE CONTINUED INTERACTION OF LAND WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE TOWARD A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO CUTOFF FROM THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND LOITER IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TC 22S WILL GRADUALLY MOVE CLOSER TO THIS LOW DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SOME CYCLONIC MOVE- MENT IN THE STORM TRACK AFTER TAU 24 AS THE TWO CIRCULATIONS INTERACT. GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO INTENSIFY A BIT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND NON- TROPICAL CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY LEAD TO EVENTUAL MERGER OF THE TWO CIRCULATIONS, WHICH SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER, THIS MERGER WILL PROBABLY NOT BE COMPLETE UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK AND INTENITY FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080309 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 39.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 39.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 20.4S 39.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 21.9S 39.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 23.1S 39.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 24.0S 38.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 39.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S HAS TRACKED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. WARM WATER AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM HAS ALLOWED FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CUTOFF FROM THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND WILL LOITER IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TC 22S WILL GRADUALLY MOVE CLOSER TO THIS LOW DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTERACTION OF THE TWO CIRCULATIONS WILL BEGIN AFTER TAU 24 AS THE TRACK OF TC 22S SLOWS AND TURNS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TC AND THE NON-TROPICAL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL MERGER OF THE TWO CIRCULATIONS, WHICH SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN THE TC. HOWEVER, THIS MERGER WILL PROBABLY NOT BE COMPLETE UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080310 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 39.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 39.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 21.9S 40.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 23.3S 40.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 24.2S 39.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 24.8S 39.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 39.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST- WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE STORM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND UNFAVORABLE, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY TOWARD THE BASE OF THE AFOREMEN- TIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED CUTOFF, UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE STORM TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO MID-LEVEL INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STORM AND TROUGH CIRCULATIONS. AS THE STORM NEARS THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE INTRODUCTION OF DRIER, SUBSIDENT AIR WILL WEAKEN TC 22S. AS THIS INTERACTION PROGRESSES, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO MAINTAIN ITS WARM CORE STRUCTURE AND REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND A SECOND RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE STORM MAY DEVELOP, ALLOWING THE STORM TO LOITER IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080310 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 21.9S 40.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 40.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 23.3S 40.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 24.5S 40.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 25.2S 39.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 25.4S 39.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 40.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST- WARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE STORM HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY TOWARD THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WILL INDUCE SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE STORM TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO MID-LEVEL INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STORM AND TROUGH CIRCULATIONS. AS THE STORM NEARS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, IN- CREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE INTRODUCTION OF DRIER, SUBSIDENT AIR WILL WEAKEN TC 22S. AS THIS INTERACTION PROGRESSES, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY THE ENVI- RONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO MAINTAIN ITS WARM CORE STRUCTURE AND REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRON- MENT BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND A SECOND RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST OF THE STORM MAY DEVELOP, ALLOWING THE STORM TO LOITER IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080311 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 41.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 41.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 24.8S 41.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 25.5S 40.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 25.7S 39.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 25.7S 39.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 41.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST- WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BANDING EYE WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. AN 110406Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED MORE SOUTHEASTWARD THAN EXPECTED POSSIBLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW POSITIONED SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 12, TC 22S WILL TURN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AND SLOW AS A WEAK STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS SOUTH. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE STORM WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH SLOW OR QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AFTER TAU 24. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080311 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 25.1S 41.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S 41.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 26.1S 41.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 26.6S 40.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 26.7S 40.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 26.5S 40.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 41.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST- WARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW POSITIONED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ALLOWING A WEAK STEERING RIDGE TO BUILD IN SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE AND ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE FORMING TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE TC 22S TO PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE TURNING MORE WESTWARD AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR TAU 36. TC 22S WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080312 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 25.2S 40.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 40.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 25.4S 40.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 25.5S 39.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 25.4S 39.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 25.2S 39.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 25.2S 40.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM SOUTH- WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RENEWED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. A 120352Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS A DEVELOPING BANDING EYE WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION ARE BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS DUE IN LARGE PART TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC ON THE 120347Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS BUILT IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO RE- MAIN SITUATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SLOW, QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION UNTIL AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH INDUCES A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE AFTER TAU 72. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS BUT IS SLOWER AFTER TAU 24. TC 22S IS TRACKING OVER GENERALLY FAVORABLE SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LOW NEAR 30S 55E. HOWEVER, INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TREND BEARS WATCHING CONSIDERING THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND CONTINUED ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080312 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 25.7S 40.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 40.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 25.8S 39.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 25.5S 39.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 25.0S 39.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 24.6S 38.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 40.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH- WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 1733Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS THAT SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE STORM. THIS IMPLIES THAT THE STORM IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE STORM HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE ALONG WITH QUIKSCAT. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE MODELS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW EQUATORWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, AS AN ANTICYCLONE WEST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THE POLEWARD TRACK. SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION IF THE STORM MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ENCOUNTER LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION IS BEYOND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080313 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 25.1S 40.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S 40.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 25.0S 40.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 24.9S 40.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 24.9S 40.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 25.0S 40.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 40.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTH- WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 22S PEAKED IN INTENSITY NEAR 13/03Z WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES JUMPING TO 77 KNOTS (PGTW, KNES AND FMEE). OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED WITH THE EYE BECOMING CLOUD- FILLED AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON A 130520Z SSMIS IMAGE, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION. TC 22S IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WEST, NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, THEREFORE, THE AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS SHIFTED TO A SLOWER, MORE EASTWARD TRACK THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE CURRENT LOOP AND THE CONTINUED WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE. MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT REMAINS WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080313 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 25.4S 40.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 40.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 25.4S 40.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 25.3S 40.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 25.2S 40.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 25.1S 39.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 40.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS REMAINED QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE INDICATE THAT TC 22S HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE DROP IN INTENSITY WAS DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACTING ON THE SYSTEM. WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTH- EAST, THE STORM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT HAS LEAD TO POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKEN THE STORM FURTHER, UNTIL IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY BEING LOWER THAN EXPECTED, THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080314 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 020 RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 40.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 40.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 25.2S 40.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 25.0S 39.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 40.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST IS EXERTING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER STEERING INFLUENCE, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE STORM SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 22S IS STEADILY WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS NOW EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24 UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THIS DESTRUCTIVE SHEAR. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT STEADY WEAKENING TREND, BUT THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20080314 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 25.3S 40.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 40.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 25.3S 40.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 40.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH RE- MAINING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. TC 22S REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 22S CONTINUES TO STEADILY WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND IS NOW EX- PECTED TO DROP BELOW 30 KNOTS BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14 FEET.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_jokwe_jtwc_advisories.htm
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