Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone KAMBA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone KAMBA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20080307 02:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 89.1E TO 12.6S 84.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 070130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 88.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 90.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CON- VECTION BUILDING TO THE WEST OF AN INCREASINGLY CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS CONFIRMED BY SCATTER- OMETRY OBSERVATIONS WHICH SHOW 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DE- CREASE OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING AN AMPLE OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, IMPROVING CONVECTION AND MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 080200Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080307 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070200Z FEB 08// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 11.9S 87.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 87.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 12.0S 86.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 12.4S 85.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 13.0S 83.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 13.9S 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 86.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 910 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 23S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE AFTER THIS TIME AND THE STORM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY MORE STEADILY. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS THAT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 070200Z FEB 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 070200) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080308 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 87.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 87.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 12.9S 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 13.6S 84.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 14.6S 82.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 15.9S 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 86.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 915 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTH- WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 23S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS THAT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080308 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 86.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 86.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 13.5S 84.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 14.7S 82.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.1S 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.9S 78.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 86.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 23S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND UNFAVORABLE, INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AXIS OF A SYNTOPIC-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080309 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 84.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 84.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 15.0S 82.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.4S 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 18.1S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.0S 77.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 83.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 23S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080309 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 14.6S 82.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 82.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.1S 79.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 18.2S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.7S 77.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 23.5S 76.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 81.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KAMBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM SOUTH- EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 23S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES INDI- CATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND THROUGH TAU 24 AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE BUT ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DECREASES. THERAFTER, THE STORM WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. AS TC 23S CONTINUES POLEWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER, THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN BY TAU 48. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080310 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 18.0S 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.2S 76.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 22.5S 75.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 24.4S 75.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 78.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KAMBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SIGN- IFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 23S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TILL TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STORM. AS TC 23S CONTINUES POLEWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER, THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN BY TAU 48. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080310 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNING NR 007 RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 18.1S 78.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 78.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.5S 78.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 22.9S 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 25.0S 76.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 26.7S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 78.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KAMBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 23S IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED A SIGNIFICANT INTEN- SIFICATION TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUT- FLOW. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST INTRODUCES INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND SUPPRESSED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL DRIVE STEADIER WEAKENING. BY TAU 48, INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATI- TUDE TROUGH AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL INDUCE THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. THE TAU 24 THROUGH TAU 48 INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TO REFLECT A MORE PROBABLE WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 01200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080311 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 20.8S 78.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 78.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 23.6S 77.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 26.3S 77.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 28.2S 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 30.3S 74.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 78.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KAMBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 23S IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NEAR TAU 36, INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND CONTINUED PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL INDUCE THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WAR- NINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080311 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 23.1S 78.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 78.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 25.2S 77.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 27.4S 77.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 29.5S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 31.3S 75.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 78.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KAMBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 995 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCUL- ATION CENTER DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. AN 110849Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWED THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND SUPPORTED THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. TC 23S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER COOLER SST (25-26C) AND VERY LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH- WARD INTO A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WILL INTERACT WEAKLY WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH TAU 36. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER WATER PRIOR TO COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARN- INGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080312 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 25.3S 79.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 79.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 27.6S 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 30.1S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 79.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KAMBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1140 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS CRESTED THE AXIS OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO COOLER WATER AND COMES UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 23S IS NOW DETACHED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE COMPLETING EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UP-
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_kamba_jtwc_advisories.htm
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