Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone LOLA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone LOLA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20080321 14:00z RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 60.5E TO 16.4S 56.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 211230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 59.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 221400Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080321 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351Z MAR 08// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 59.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 59.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 16.3S 58.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 16.8S 57.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 16.8S 56.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.5S 55.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 59.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN ADVANCE OF A TRANSITORY MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. A 211418Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON PGTW DVORAK ANALYSIS AND 211422Z QUIKSCAT DATA. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE AND FURTHER INTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO SUSTAINABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL AID, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 211351Z MAR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 211400) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080322 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LOLA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 58.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 58.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 16.4S 57.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 16.3S 56.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.0S 54.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 15.8S 54.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 58.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 25S IS TRACKING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE INDUCED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, A PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUIDLING IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE STORM WILL INFLUENCE STORM MOTION, INDUCING AN EQUATOR- WARD COMPONENT IN THE STORM TRACK. OVERALL STORM MOTION WILL REMAIN SLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE WEAKENED STEERING FLOW. TC 25S HAS INTENSIFIED ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND UNFAVOR- ABLE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL FLOW OF AN UPPER-LEVEL, MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH- EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 220328Z TRMM PASS SHOW THAT THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC HAS BECOME PARTIALLY-EXPOSED IN RESPONSE TO THIS SHEAR. THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN RESPONSE TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LESS-THAN-FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080322 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LOLA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 58.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 58.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 16.0S 57.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.0S 56.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.0S 55.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.1S 54.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 58.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 25S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, THE STORM HAS NOT INTENSIFIED AS ANTICIPATED DUE TO A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A POOL OF UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY TILL TAU 24. BY TAU 24, THE FORECAST TAKES THE STORM BACK OVER FAVORABLE WARM WATER. THE WARM WATER AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080323 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LOLA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 57.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 57.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.2S 56.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.2S 56.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.2S 55.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.4S 54.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 57.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 25S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE STORM APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE INDUCED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BY TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL SLOW AND BEGIN TURNING POLE- WARD. TC 25S HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL FLOW OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DIS- PLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, THE STORM HAS ENCOUNTERED AN AREA OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DURING THE SAME PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE STORM SHOULD ALSO ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE ALONG- TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THUS, THE CURRENT FORECAST ANTICIPATES SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. AS THE STORM ENTERS THE STEERING WEAKNESS NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DROP AND DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW MAY DEVELOP. THEREFORE, THE INTENSIFICATION RATE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 36. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080323 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LOLA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 56.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 56.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.4S 55.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.5S 54.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 17.1S 53.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 18.0S 54.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 56.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 25S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THIS GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL IT BEGINS A RECURVATURE POLEWARD BY TAU 24. THE RECURVE IS DUE TO THE STORM ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS INDUCED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 25S HAS MAINTAIN STRENGTH BUT NOT INTENSIFIED AS ANTICIPATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS KEPT THE STRONG FROM INTENSIFYING OR WEAKENING. AS THE STORM TRACKS WESTWARD INTO WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS IMPROVE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20080324 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LOLA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 55.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 55.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 15.2S 55.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 55.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 50NM SOUTH. IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATION AND WEAKENING OF THE LLCC WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS. A 24/0201Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATED 30-KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES AND A DRIFTING BUOY REPORT (#14903) OF 999MB. THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN BOTH POSITIONING AND INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 25-30 KNOT EASTERLIES OVER THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FUELING AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS DISPLACED ABOUT 100NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCOUPLING OF THE LLCC FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION RESULTING IN SLOW, ERRATIC MOTION AND A POSSIBLE LOOP AT THIS TIME. THE LLCC SHOULD TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY RE-INTENSIFY WITH THE MODELS SPLIT AND MAINLY INDIC- ATING RE-DEVELOPMENT AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AFTER TAU 72. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 15 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_lola_jtwc_advisories.htm
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