Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone PANCHO : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone PANCHO Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20080324 02:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
225 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6S 102.0E TO 13.3S 97.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 240000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8S 101.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 11.8S 101.6E, APPROXIMATELY
275 NM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEGUN
TO CONSOLIDATE UNDER A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
CONTINUED LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW THE DISTURBANCE TO STRENGTHEN INTO A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25-30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 250230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080324 15:00z
SGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240221Z MAR 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 13.0S 103.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 103.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.4S 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.9S 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.5S 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.3S 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 103.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECT-
IVE BANDING AND CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 240822Z TRMM
37GHZ IMAGE AND A 241042Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED SLIGHTLY EAST OF A
DEVELOPING CDO FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM AND A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KNOTS. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE STEERING RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES,
THEREFORE, TRACK SPEEDS ARE SLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS DUE TO POOR INITIAL-
IZATION OF THE GFNI TRACKER AND INITIAL ERRONEOUS EQUATORWARD TRACK.
TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A 10-15 KNOT PER DAY RATE DUE
TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND SST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 240221Z MAR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 240230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LOLA) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW
240300).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080325 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 104.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 104.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.8S 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.8S 104.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.9S 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.3S 105.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 104.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 242313Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, WHICH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY EAST
OF THE IMPROVED CDO FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
30-45 KNOTS. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AIDS, WHICH REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DUE TO THE
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080325 15:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (PANCHO) WARNING NR 003
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (PANCHO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 14.7S 104.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 104.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.9S 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.2S 104.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.7S 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.4S 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 104.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (PANCHO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM
HAS TURNED INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD AND ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WITH A CDO FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER. A
251158Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODER-
ATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION DUE TO THE BETTER ORGANIZED LLCC. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AIDS, WHICH REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, THEREFORE, TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24. AS TC 26S TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE SYSTEM IS FORE-
CAST TO WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080325 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (PANCHO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 104.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 104.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.5S 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.9S 104.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.3S 105.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.6S 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 104.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (PANCHO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
460NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED
SYSTEM WITH PRONOUNCED SPIRAL BANDING. POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY A MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. A
251526Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS OVERALL IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE LLCC.
THE SYSTEM IS UNDER AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
BASED ON PGTW, ABRF AND KNES DVORAK ANALYSES. THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER HIGHER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DECREASED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
TAU 36 AND TAU 48 WHICH WILL HINDER FURTHER INTENSIFI-
CATION. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE
NUMERICAL AIDS BUT IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE LATER TAUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080326 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (PANCHO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 104.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 104.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.4S 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.1S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.0S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.0S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 104.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (PANCHO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A BANDING EYE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW WITH POLEWARD FLOW
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH AN ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. TC 26S
IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND HAS INTENSIFIED FASTER THAN EXPECTED BUT FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. TC 26S WILL TRACK OVER COOLER SST
AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AFTER TAU 24 AND WILL WEAKEN SIGNIF-
ICANTLY BY TAU 48 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
262100Z AND 270900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080326 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (PANCHO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 18.5S 105.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 105.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.9S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.8S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.6S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 26.3S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 105.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (PANCHO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A MATURE SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED EYE FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL MESO-
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED AND BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, APRF, AND KNES. AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS
A REGION OF UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL
MODEL AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080327 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (PANCHO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 106.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 106.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.8S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.7S 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 26.1S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 27.5S 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 106.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (PANCHO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE STORM HAS INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RAGGED, 18 NM
DIAMETER EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER, THE STORM HAS ALSO SHOWN SOME
SIGNS OF WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 26S IS TRACKING
POLEWARD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN EXTENSIVE STEERING RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE STORM AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME SLOWING OCCURING
AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STORM CIRULATION AND
THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE. THE STORM WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH INTRODUCES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DRIER, SUBSIDENT AIR FROM UPPER LEVELS. THIS INTER-
ACTION WILL ALSO INDUCE THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO BOTH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL
MODEL AIDS. INTENSITY FORECAST VALUES HAVE BEEN REDUCED SLIGHTLY,
BUT ARE CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z AND 280900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080327 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (PANCHO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 22.7S 107.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 107.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.7S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 26.2S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 27.8S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 29.3S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 107.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (PANCHO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT
IMAGERY REVEALS THE ONSET OF DECAYING WITH A RAGGED EYE FEATURE
AND WANING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. A 271310 SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWS ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM.
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS
THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 36. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE UNTIL AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER AND TO THE EAST
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL AIDS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN ORDER TO BEST REFLECT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080328 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (PANCHO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 24.2S 108.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 108.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 25.5S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 26.8S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 28.3S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 30.0S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 109.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (PANCHO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 26S CONTINUES TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE STORM. THE SYSTEM HAS STEADILY WEAKENED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE MAJORITY OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SHEARED TO
THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO PERSISTENT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL DRAW DRIER, SUBSIDENT AIR FROM UPPER-LEVELS
TOWARD THE STORM CIRCULATION. THESE COMBINED INFLUENCES WILL
PRODUCE A SHALLOWER STORM STRUCTURE TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA BY TAU 48. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
FASTER AND TO THE EAST OF THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL
MODEL AIDS, WHICH APPEAR TO DEPICT EXCESSIVE DIRECT INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TO THE WEST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND
290900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080328 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (PANCHO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 25.0S 109.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 109.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 25.7S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 26.5S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 27.3S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 25.2S 109.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (PANCHO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER HIGH SOUTH-
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IN COOL AND UNSUSTAINABLE
WATERS. THERE IS DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
OF THE SYSTEM AS THE LLCC WEAKENS AND BROADENS. INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. GIVEN THE CURRENT
WEAKENING TREND OF 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND POOR
ENVIRONMENT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE STORM IS NOW EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE
OVER WATER BY TAU 36 PRIOR TO COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE STORM WILL GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MERIDIONALLY-AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC SCALE
RIDGE, BUT AT A MUCH SLOWER SPEED THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
THE DECREASE IN SPEED IS A FACTOR OF THE LOW LEVEL STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING A GREATER CONTRIBUTOR TO TRACK SPEED AS THE
STORM WEAKENS DUE TO HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO TO BE SLIGHTLY
EAST OF THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20080329 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (PANCHO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 111.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 25.5S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 111.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (PANCHO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE UNDER THE
COMBINED INFLUENCES OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW SEA SUR-
FACE TEMPERATURES. THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, DRIVING
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF
35 KNOTS BY TAU 12. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 14 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_pancho_jtwc_advisories.htm
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