Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone BONGANI : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2009-2010 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone BONGANI Track Map and Data |
WTXS31 PGTW 20091123 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 8.5S 53.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S 53.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 8.7S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 9.0S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 9.3S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 9.6S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 10.1S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 10.9S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 12.2S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 8.5S 53.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP TIGHTLY INTO AN
INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
230133Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ILLUSTRATES THE CONVECTIVE BANDING
WHILE A 230523Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 40-KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LLCC. TC 02S IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HAS RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AHEAD OF MULTIPLE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS. TC 02S WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE,
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
AS IT STARTS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK SCENARIO AS THE ECMWF MODEL (AS
OBTAINED FROM THEIR PUBLIC WEB PAGE) OFFERS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK
WHILE THE UKMO SOLUTION SUGGESTS A MORE ZONAL MID-LATITUDE FLOW
PATTERN AND SUBSEQUENT WESTWARD-MOVING TRACK. THIS FORECAST LEANS
TOWARDS THE JTWC CONSENSUS, WHICH FAVORS THE SOUTHWESTWARD-TRACKING
MODELS OF GFDN AND NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091123 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 9.1S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1S 52.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 9.5S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 9.9S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 10.3S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 10.7S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 11.6S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 12.9S 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.4S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 52.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION, HOWEVER, A 231758Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 230523Z ASCAT IMAGE (25-KM) SHOWING
40-45 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THEN IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 72 AS THE STR STRENGTHENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TURN POLEWARD OVER WATER. NOGAPS IS
THE OUTLIER AND TURNS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD LATER, AS IT TRACKS OVER
MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY BUT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02S WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 96 DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091124 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 10.9S 51.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 51.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.6S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.9S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 12.3S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.8S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.4S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.5S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.0S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 51.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON A 240235Z WSAT
CORIOLIS 37H MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE
SOUTH-OF-TRACK. DESPITE THE IMPROVED LOW LEVEL MICROWAVE SIGNATURE
EVIDENCED IN THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW UNDERESTIMATE THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF WEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING EAST TO WEST. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS
BEEN DECREASED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BEND INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AS THE CYCLONE
TRACKS INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TEMPORARILY ERODE AND RE-
ORIENT THE STEERING RIDGE. IN ADDITION, THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
INCREASED POLEWARD VENTING BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ELEVATES
BEYOND TAU 72. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
FLATTEN AND THE SYSYEM WILL TRACK INLAND OVER INTERIOR MOZAMBIQUE,
AND WILL DISSIPATE. THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091124 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 11.1S 51.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 51.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.1S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 11.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.0S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 12.9S 45.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.9S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.8S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.8S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 51.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
540NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELITE IMAGERY INDICATES
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING TO THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED HIGHER THAN THE RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC. TC 02S IS
FORECASTED TO ACHIEVE A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AS IT
PASSES THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR AND TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWEST
INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
INTENSIFICATION IS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE TROUGH IS ALSO
EXPECTED INDUCE A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 96 AND WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091125 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 11.6S 50.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 50.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 12.0S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.6S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.4S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.4S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.2S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.1S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.8S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 49.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
480 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TC 02S HAS STARTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR WITH INDICATIONS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS STARTED TO DETERIORATE. CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINING LOCATED OVER THE
LLCC. LAND INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE LLCC THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER AS TC 02S MOVES INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND LESS
LAND INFLUENCE WILL HELP TO BRING THE INTENSITY UP. MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WILL BRIEFLY SUPPORT INCREASED UPPER LEVEL OUTLFOW, BUT
WILL ALSO CAUSE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEYOND TAU 72.
INCREASED VWS AND DECREASING SST VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TC
02S AFTER TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091125 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 12.0S 47.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 47.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.6S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 47.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM NORTH OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH 02S HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 10 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_bongani_jtwc_advisories.htm
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