Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone CLEO : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2009-2010 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone CLEO Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20091206 11:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6S 84.6E TO 9.4S 78.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.6S
84.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3S
86.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 85.0E, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. THE LATEST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY (MI) (060126Z
SSMIS 91H, 060738Z TMI 85H) INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN
TOWARDS THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A 060413Z ASCAT PASS VALIDATES
THE IMPROVED LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE EVIDENT IN MI WITH 30 KNOTS
UNFLAGGED AT THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE
ALSO ASSESS A 30-KNOT SYSTEM. CENTRAL CONVECTION IS STILL FAIRLY
LIMITED AND WEAK, BUT IT HAS ALSO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AND
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
071130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091207 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 8.5S 81.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S 81.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 8.9S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 9.7S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 10.2S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 10.5S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 10.6S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 10.5S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 10.9S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 8.6S 81.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062050Z TRMM
IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 062330Z PGTW DVORAK VALUE OF 2.5 AND IMPROVING
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM IMAGE INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO THE 35 KNOT WARNING
INTENSITY THRESHOLD. TC 03S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE STEERING RIDGE, INDUCING A POLEWARD STAIRSTEP IN THE STORM TRACK
THROUGH ABOUT TAU 36. THEREAFTER, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND TC 03S WILL RESUME A
WESTWARD TRACK. TC 03S IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOODD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THESE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSIST.
THEREAFTER, THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AS ALONG TRACK
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DECREASES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES
SLIGHTLY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS STORM TRACK FORECAST, WITH ALL MODELS
FORECASTING A STEADY WESTWARD TRACK. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 061121Z DEC 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 061130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091207 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 9.1S 79.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1S 79.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 9.8S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 10.2S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 10.4S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 10.6S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 10.8S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 11.4S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.6S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 78.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. CLEO HAS STRENGTHENED 10 KNOTS SINCE THE PREVIOUS
WARNING. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND
FAVORABLE POLEWARD VENTING HAVE ALL FACILITATED THIS INTENSIFICATION.
AS OF 071200Z, PGTW AND FMEE ARE REPORTING A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 3.0, WHICH IS EQUIVALENT TO 45 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. BEYOND TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOW IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING RIDGE, AND INTENSITIES WILL BEGIN TO STEADY
AROUND 70 KNOTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120 TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091208 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 77.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 77.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 10.6S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 11.1S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 11.7S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 12.1S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 13.1S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.5S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 13.9S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 77.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
TC 03S. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM TC 03S HAS FUELED THE 10 KNOT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. FIXES FROM PGTW AND
KNES WERE AT 3.5 WITH FMEE AT A 4.0. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS FAVORS PGTW AND KNES. A RECENT 080004Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS
SHOWS AN EYE HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP. IT ALSO SHOWS THAT THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE BANDING LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED
OVER THE LLCC. THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND IS LIKELY DUE TO THE QUICKER
BREAKDOWN OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 03S. TRACK SPEEDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THE STEERING RIDGE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF TC 03S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091208 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 10.8S 76.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 76.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 11.5S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.1S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.6S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.3S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.0S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.8S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.4S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 75.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH A 10 NM PINPOINT EYE AND
EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE BANDING SUPPORTED BY VERY STRONG FEEDER BANDS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW
SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED 55 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS REFLECTS THIS INCREASING TREND AND IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON EYE FIXES.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC CLEO
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTERACT
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT QUICKLY EASTWARD WHILE THE
WESTERN STR BUILDS EASTWARD, SUPPORTING A CONTINUED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TC-LAPS WHICH RECURVES
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. TC CLEO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125
KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU
36 DUE TO MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND
090900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091208 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 11.4S 74.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 74.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.3S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.4S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.5S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.4S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.5S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.1S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 18.8S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 74.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TC 03S HAS LOST ITS VISIBLE EYE, BUT HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH A DEEP
BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF AND WRAPPING
INTO THE WESTERN HALF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH ADDITIONAL VENTING TO THE EAST. A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF TC 03S IS SHOWING INDICATIONS OF
ENHANCING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A DEVELOPING SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 03S, WHICH WILL SUPPRESS
THE TROUGH, WILL BEGIN TO HAMPER THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND IN CON-
JUNCTION WITH DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES, WILL CAUSE A
WEAKENING OF TC 03S BEYOND TAU 36. THE STR WILL ALSO BECOME THE MAJOR
STEERING INFLUENCE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. ADDITIONAL TRANSITORY MID-
LATITUDE TROUGHS WILL CAUSE A DEFORMATION OF THE STR AROUND TAU 96
AND WILL CAUSE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. MODEL
GUIDANCE PERSISTS WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, BUT REFLECTS A
WIDE SPREAD IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
PREDOMINANTLY ON THE CONCENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z AND 092100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091209 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 11.9S 73.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 73.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.7S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.5S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.1S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.7S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.8S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.1S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.6S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 72.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH RELATIVELY GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW
SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH. TC CLEO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
TAU 72 BUT WILL BEGIN TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS IT STARTS TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO
DISTINCT CLUSTERS WITH UKMO AND GFS TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AND
NOGAPS, ECMWF, GFDN, WBAR AND TC-LAPS DEPICTING A RE-CURVE SCENARIO.
THE UKMO AND GFS ERRONEOUSLY TRACK THE SYSTEM WESTWARD DESPITE A RE-
CURVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE RE-CURVE
SCENARIO AND MODELS. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS IT TRACKS OVER MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 120, TC CLEO
SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND TRACK OVER COOLER SST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091209 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 12.5S 71.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 71.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.4S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.1S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.6S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.2S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.2S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.5S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.7S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 71.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS DEVELOPED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND
HAS SUSTAINED EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENABLING CLEO TO MAINTAIN AN
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. TC 03S IS ALSO LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH CAN ALSO BE SEEN BY
A SYMMETRIC THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY THE 091730Z PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE.
TC CLEO WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 72,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TO TURN POLEWARD AS AN UPSTREAM MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT WITH UKMO TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD WHILE
THE REST OF THE AIDS IN THE JTWC CONSENSUS DEPICT A RE-CURVE
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR A RECURVATURE AFTER TAU
72. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS
AS IT TRACKS OVER WATER WITH MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES AND
UNDER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 96, TC
CLEO SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z AND 102100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091210 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 70.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 70.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.9S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.5S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.2S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.0S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.2S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.8S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.2S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 70.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 100530Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS
CONFIRMS THE POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE, AND ALSO SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS
BECOMING EXPOSED TO THE NORTH. CLEO HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DROPPED TO 60
KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) OF
4.0 FROM PGTW, AND AN LLCC THAT IS BECOMING EXPOSED. FMEE IS
ASSESSING AN EVEN WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A CI OF 3.5 OR 55 KNOTS. THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS CONTRACTED TOWARDS THE CENTER AND HAS
SHALLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO DIG EQUATORWARD.
AS A RESULT, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED UPSTREAM AND IS
POSITIONED TO ELEVATE TO UNFAVORABLE LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
CURRENTLY VWS IS LOW TO MODERATE (BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS). DESPITE
THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE THERE APPEARS TO BE A 24-HOUR
WINDOW IN WHICH VWS WILL REMAIN NEITHER FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE
WHERE CLEO COULD MAINTAIN A 55 TO 60 KNOT LLCC. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU
24, VWS WILL ELEVATE CONSIDERABLY, AND THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AT AN
ACCELERATED RATE. DECREASED OCEAN HEAT AND ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT, SPECIFICALLY BEYOND TAU 72, WILL ENHANCE WEAKENING
WHILE PROMOTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (XT). THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL ERODE THIS RIDGE, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO CREST THE AXIS AND TURN POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
DECAY AS IT BEGINS XT NEAR TAU 96. CLEO WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL
AT TAU 120. ANOTHER FORECAST SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
DISSIPATE FASTER THAN THE FORECAST, DECOUPLE FROM ITS DEEP
CONVECTION, THEN TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE SURFACE
EASTERLIES AS EGRR, ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEGUN TO INDICATE. BECAUSE OF
THE LARGE SPREAD IN FORECAST TRACKERS THIS FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091210 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 69.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 69.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.5S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.2S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.7S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.4S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.2S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 68.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATLEY 880 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONTINUED FLARING OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS WAS BASED
ON AGENCY FIXES UTILIZING THE SHEAR TECHNIQUE, INDICATING THAT THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. TC 03S
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, UNDER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND FURTHER ENTRAINS DRY AIR (CURRENTLY SEEN IN BOTH RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS). THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 72 BEFORE RE-CURVING INTO THE MID-LATITUDES AND GOING
EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST REFLECTS A
PHILOSOPHY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO SHOW THAT CLEO WILL
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE
TO RE-CURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091211 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 13.9S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.0S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.5S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 67.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED, AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS NEARLY
DEPLETED. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE CENTER DUE
TO THE CONTINUED EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR. PGTW
AND KNES INTENSITY FIXES CONCUR THAT THE SYSTEM IS 35 KNOTS OR LESS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI-
TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z IS 14 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091213 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 62.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 62.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.8S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.4S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.1S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.9S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.2S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 61.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM NORTH-
EAST NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. JTWC HAS COMMENCED WARNINGS FOR TC 03S
BASED ON INCREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW SHOWING AT LEAST 30 TO
35 KNOTS AT 122330Z, WITH ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC HAS
BEEN SLOWLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH ONLY
BRIEF PERIODS OF CONVECTION, HOWEVER RECENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 03S HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THIS INCREASE IN OUTFLOW HAS HELPED TO
INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM OVER THE SHORT TERM. A 121803Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED
THE LLCC HAD AT LEAST 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS, WITH AT LEAST ONE EDGE OF
SWATH WIND BARB SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOTS. BASED ON THE PARTIAL HIT, THE
INTENSITY FOR THE 00Z POSITION WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. THIS WAS
SUPPORTED BY A 2.0 DVORAK FIX FROM PGTW. THE FORECAST HAS THE LLCC
STARTING TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW. BEYOND TAU
24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF TC 03S,
THAT IS STEERING THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, AS TC 03S MOVES TO THE
SOUTH, THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL CAUSE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) TO INCREASE TO HIGH VALUES BY TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36 INCREASING
VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) TO BEGIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
ET PROCESS WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091213 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 61.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 61.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.5S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.0S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.6S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.5S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 26.8S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 61.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED
BY AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND FMEE. TC 03S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY POLEWARD
ORIENTATED. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD
AND SHOULD RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT TRACK.
TC CLEO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS DUE TO IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AND
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND
141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091214 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 17.7S 61.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 61.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.6S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.8S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 24.2S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 61.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BRIEF
PERIODS OF CONVECTION FLARING OVER A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC HAS STARTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
GENEROUS BASED ON A 1.5 DVORAK FROM PGTW. A RECENT ASCAT PASS HAD
WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS FLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY. BASED ON PREVIOUS PASSES THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE
ON A DOWNWARD TREND FOR INTENSITY. GIVEN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT AND
THE PROGRESSIVE DETERIORATION OF THE LLCC, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_cleo_jtwc_advisories.htm
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