Updated: 17 June 2020
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]
| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DAVID : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2009-2010 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone DAVID Track Map and Data |
WTXS22 PGTW 20091212 21:00z
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/112151Z DEC 09//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 112200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7S 85.3E TO 10.6S 80.2E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
122030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.2S
84.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6S
84.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVEC-
TION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 121625Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED
THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN HALF WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM 15 TO 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LLCC
IS STILL IN TRYING TO ORGANIZE INTO A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
THROUGHOUT THE SURROUNDING AREA FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
132100Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 131.0E.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20091213 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 10.4S 83.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 83.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 11.7S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.7S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.4S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.3S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.0S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.2S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 15.3S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 83.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE BUT LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING LIKELY DUE TO DIURNAL TRENDS. A 130138Z
SSMIS 37H IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. A 130330Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED
ONLY 20-25 KNOT WINDS, HOWEVER, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
HIGHER THAN ASCAT AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIR
OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SST IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED EAST TO
THE STR BUILDING SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT SUPPORTS
THE TRACK WESTWARD. TC 05S SHOULD MAINTAIN A 30-35 KNOT INTENSITY
AS IT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH TAU 24 BUT IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65-70 KNOTS BY TAU 120 UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 122052Z DEC 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 122100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 130600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20091213 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 11.4S 82.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 82.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.5S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.8S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.0S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.8S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.2S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.3S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.3S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 82.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS LOST MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION, BUT HAS A DEEP BAND DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN HALF.
A 131604Z SSMI PASS SHOWS THAT WEAK BANDING AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, AND SUPPORTS THE LLCC BEING LOCATED TO THE
WEST OF THE MAJOR BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW FOR TC 05S HAS BEEN SLOWLY
INCREASING AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH
EXTENSION THAT IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH HAVE INTERACTED WITH TC 05S
AND HAVE HELPED TO INCREASE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05S IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS WITH LOW VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OVER THE REGION. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL STR POSITIONED EAST TO THE STR BUILDING SOUTH. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT SUPPORTS THE TRACK WESTWARD. TC 05S SHOULD
MAINTAIN A 30-35 KNOT INTENSITY AS IT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH TAU
24 BUT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65-70 KNOTS BY
TAU 120 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 131800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20091214 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 12.6S 81.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 81.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.7S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 81.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
DISORGANIZED WITH MINIMAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
A 140127Z SSMIS 37V GHZ IMAGE INDICATES WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
POORLY DEFINED LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW FOR TC 05S IS POOR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. TC
05S IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
COMPLETELY BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(CLEO) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(LAURENCE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20091220 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 62.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 62.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 11.1S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.2S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.5S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.0S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.2S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.6S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.2S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 62.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. JTWC IS RESUMING WARNINGS ON TC 05S. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES (2.5/2.5) FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATE THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS RE-INTENSIFIED TO 35 KNOTS.
WITHIN THE PAST THREE HOURS THE LLCC HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF DIURNALLY-FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. NONETHELESS,
A 200138Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD AND VERTICAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTIONS, PROVIDED
BY CIRA-RAMMB, INDICATE A DEVELOPING WARM CORE ALOFT. DESPITE
EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SLOW TO
STEADY OVER THE NEXT DAY DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LIMITED OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY POLEWARD AS THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHALLOW MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. INSTEAD OF RECURVING INTO THE
WESTERLIES, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
STRENGTHEN AND TURN THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARDS THE WEST BETWEEN TAU 96
AND 120. INCREASED OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROMOTE A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS OR
GREATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(LAURENCE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20091220 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 11.1S 62.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 62.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.1S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.4S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.1S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.2S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.3S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.5S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.3S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 61.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED DESPITE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON A 201659Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35-KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 05S IS JUST SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TWO
STEERING MECHANISMS, A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST ARE COMPETING FOR CONTROL OVER THE SYSTEM. THE TC IS
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH AS THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WEAKENS AND RECEDES TO THE WEST. IT WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RELAXES WITH THE RECEDING RIDGE AND THE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT REMAINS HIGH ALONG THE TRACK. THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
BUT HAS A WIDE ENVELOPE WITH GFDN TO THE FAR LEFT AND WBAR TO THE FAR
RIGHT. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE JTWC
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20091221 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 10.7S 62.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 62.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.0S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.4S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.0S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.7S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.2S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.4S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.3S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. FIVE REMAINS A MINIMAL CYCLONE AND HAS BEEN UNABLE
TO INTENSIFY TO MORE THAN 35 KNOT KNOTS DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY
SHEAR. DESPITE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE ONLY
INDICATING A 30 KNOT SYSTEM, THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN
SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FLARING NATURE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. MORE RECENTLY CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN NEAR THE
CENTER, BUT IS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED WITHIN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS OF
THE CIRCULATION. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)IS PARTIALLY
EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CORE CONVECTION, WHICH IS
CONFIRMED BY AN EARLIER 202106Z AMSRE IMAGE. THE LLCC HAS MOVED
LITTLE SINCE THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM IS WEDGED BETWEEN A NEAR
EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
EVENTUALLY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH
WHILE PUSHING POLEWARD AND WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WHILE ACCELERATING TOWARDS A
TROUGH-INDUCED WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ONCE THE
TROUGH IS SUFFICIENTLY DOWNSTREAM, NEAR TAU 96, THE RIDGE WILL
REBUILD TO THE SOUTH, RETARDING POLEWARD MOTION AND BENDING THE
FORECAST TRACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS NOW
EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 50 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72 (10 KNOTS LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST). MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HINDER
AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKERS, BUT IN GENERAL THEY BRING THE
SYSTEM BACK TO THE (SOUTH)EAST. GIVEN THE CURRENTLY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS.
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN NEAR DAY 5 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
FURTHER ELEVATES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20091221 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 63.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 63.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.5S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 11.8S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.4S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.2S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.1S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.5S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.4S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 63.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DAVID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DESPITE MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 211504Z TRMM 37V IMAGE
DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE SOUTH
QUADRANT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE IMPROVED MICROWAVE SIGNATURE HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER APPEARS TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS WESTERLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM, PRODUCING FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOCATED JUST WEST OF AUSTRALIA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35-45 KNOTS. TC 05S IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS, TC DAVID IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMO, ECMWF, WBAR, AND GFS SUPPORT THE SHARP
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE
ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN AS WELL AS THE
ORIENTATION OF THE NER. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE UKMO, ECMWF, AND
GFDN SOLUTIONS, WHICH INDICATE A CONTINUED EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 48 FOLLOWED BY THE TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DUE TO FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE
VWS AND MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AFTER TAU 72, TC 05S SHOULD
WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER SST AS WELL AS MODERATE VWS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220900Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) FINAL
WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20091222 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 11.9S 64.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 64.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.5S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.3S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.2S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.2S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.4S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.5S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.9S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 65.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DAVID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TC 05S HAS NOT SEEN A LARGE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THERE IS
CURRENTLY LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CAUSING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO BE
SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A
220308Z SSMIS PASS THAT ALSO INDICATED THE LLCC WAS SLIGHTLY DIS-
LOCATED FROM THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. POLEWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS AND
IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS, WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY A 3.0 DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. THIS FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED TO THE WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BASED ON A MORE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
ALSO SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST AS WELL, HOWEVER THIS FORECAST REMAINS
TO THE EAST OF CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE. TC 05S IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS,
TC DAVID IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
DUE TO FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS AND MARGINAL
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AFTER TAU 72, TC 05S SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS INCREASING VWS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z AND 230900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20091222 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 67.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 67.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.1S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.0S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.7S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.3S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.6S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.7S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.1S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 67.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DAVID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
221409Z 37H TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
LOWER END OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS AND A
WEAK MICROWAVE EYE SIGNATURE. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE TCB EVIDENT IN IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM WAS
RELOCATED 80 NM EAST BASED ON THE HIGH CONFIDENCE TRMM IMAGE.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH CONTINUED GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 05S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD
BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TRACK SOUTHWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, TC 05S SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, ACCELERATE
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENTERS AN AREA OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORECAST HOWEVER, THERE
ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND
TRACK SPEEDS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS
COMPRISED OF GFS, NOGAPS, TC-LAPS, ECMWF, EGRR, GFDN AND WBAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20091223 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 68.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 68.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.6S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.3S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.2S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.8S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.4S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.0S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.5S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 68.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DAVID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED IN
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF TC 05S. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW HAVE REMAINS STEADY AT 3.5 (55 KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A
230356Z SSMIS PASS INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE OVERALL SIZE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE 12 HOURS AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05S IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF TC 05S. THIS TROUGH IS CREATING A WEAK CONVERGENT REGION OVER TC
05S, WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH IS IMPACTING
OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT REMAINS FAVORABLE ALLOWING TC 05S TO PERSIST AT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES ARE MARGINAL NOW, AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO UNFAVORABLE VALUES BY TAU 36. TC 05S IS
TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL NER
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36 TC 05S
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WHICH WILL CAUSE TC 05S TO START TRACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD ON THE TRACK OF TC 05S,
WITH GFDN, NGPS, AND UKMO SHOWING AN ABRUPT WESTWARD TURN IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. GFS, WBAR, AND ECMF SHOW A MORE GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS AND WBAR SOLUTION. INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA, AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW ALLOWS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 24
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING OHC/SST VALUES WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
BEGIN WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20091223 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 69.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 69.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.6S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.9S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.5S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.9S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.6S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.3S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DAVID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 231320Z 37H GHZ CORIOLIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS LESS ORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION WAS BASED ON ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY IN THE CENTER OF THE DENSE OVERCAST AREA. INTENSITY
IS BASE ON CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS, WHICH
APPEARS TO BE CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN. TC 05S WILL BEGIN
TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SLOW AS THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TURN SOUTHWEST-
WARD DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTH. DUE TO THE HIGH SHEAR AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, TC 05S
SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING BY TAU 72 AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 16 FEET. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS SPREAD ON WHEN EXACTY THE SYSTEM WILL TURN, HOWEVER THIS
FORECAST REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF MODEL CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z AND 242100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20091224 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 14.5S 70.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 70.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.8S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.3S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.7S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.3S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.5S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.0S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 70.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DAVID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DAVID HAS INTENSIFIED TO 55 KNOTS
DESPITE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THIS INTENSITY IS BASED
ON 3.5 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH PGTW AND FMEE. THE TC IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER A WEAKENED STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND SLOW UNTIL MID-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS RIDGE WILL
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND BEGIN TO TRACK THE TC
WESTWARD. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS NOT UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT
THE STRONGEST VWS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE UNTIL THE TROUGH PASSES. BY TAU 72, HOWEVER, VWS WILL
ELEVATE AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 96.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A TURN TO THE WEST
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO
WEAKENING. THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE EAST OF, AND SLOWER THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE GRADUAL SLOW DOWN (AND TURN)
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20091224 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 15.1S 71.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 71.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.7S 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.4S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.0S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.6S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.4S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 71.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DAVID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DECREASED AND
BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THAT IS ERODING SOME OF THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE REMAINS SOLID AS INDICATED BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE SUPPORTED BY DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES
AND FMEE. TC DAVID IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN TO THE SOUTH THEN VEER
WESTWARD AS A LOW-TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
ASSUMES STEERING OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS TC
05S BECOMES EXPOSED TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, IT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THEN DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TC OVER WATER BY TAU
72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN UNISON WITH THE WESTWARD
TURN BUT SPREAD WIDE OVER THE DEGREE OF TURN WITH EGRR TO THE FAR
RIGHT AND TCLP TO THE FAR LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST
IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20091225 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 70.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 70.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.7S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.2S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 14.9S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 70.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DAVID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK AND
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE NORTH OF
MODERATELY SHEARED CONVECTION. SHORTLY AFTER 24/1200Z THE LLCC
DECOUPLED FROM ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BEGAN DRIFTING TO THE NORTH
(CONFIRMED BY COMPARING A 241241Z SSMIS AND A 242042Z AMSRE
MICROWAVE IMAGE), INSTEAD OF WITH ITS CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ACCORDINGLY THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE LAT LON OF THE
EXPOSED LLCC. THIS FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION WITHIN 48 HOURS
DUE TO THE DECOUPLING OF THE LLCC AND SUSTAINED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE LLCC WILL TRACK WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
PRIOR TO DISSIPATING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS
11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20091225 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 71.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 71.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.1S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.9S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 71.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DAVID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A PARTIAL 251507Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED 60 NM NORTH OF ISOLATED
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. IMAGERY ALSO CLEARLY SHOWS LIMITED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. BOTH THE 251302Z TRMM WIND PRODUCT AND THE
250421Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATE 25-30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
SUPPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE ALONG WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25-30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. TC 05S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ERRATICALLY WITHIN A WEAK, LOW-LEVEL STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD UNDER THE STR STEERING INFLUENCE AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 35 KNOT INTENSITY FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER TAU 72, AS SEVERAL
MODELS INDICATE, DUE TO IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 11 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
|
Document: tropical_cyclone_david_jtwc_advisories.htm
Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]
|