Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone EDZANI : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2009-2010 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone EDZANI Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20100105 01:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1S 88.0E TO 13.2S 82.9E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 042330Z INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 87.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3S
87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 87.1E, APPROXIMATELY 885 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS WITH THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEGINNING TO DECREASE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). VWS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW.
SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE STR. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 060130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100106 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050121ZJAN2010//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 84.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 84.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.5S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.4S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.0S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.3S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.4S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.2S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.7S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 84.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 765 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TC 07S HAS SLOWLY BEEN ORGANIZING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON 2.5 DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW
AND FMEE. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ELONGATION IN THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, WITH A 051627Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
THE ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATES THE LLCC IS STILL ORGANIZING AS COM-
PARED TO PREVIOUS ASCAT PASSES THAT INDICATED A GREATER EXTENT OF
ELONGATION IN THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS CREATING A DIVERGENT PATTERN OVER THE
SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
RELATIVE LOCATION OF THE LLCC TO THE STR, THERE IS STILL MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LLCC. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
SOUTHWEST TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SLOW INTENSIFI-
CATION AS THE VWS DECREASES AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODEL DATA. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 050121Z JAN 10
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 050130) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z AND 070300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100106 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 81.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 81.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.8S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.3S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.9S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.4S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.4S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.3S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.0S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 81.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A
061137Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
CONSOLIDATION AND AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 07S IS LOCATED
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH NO SPECIFIC OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC
EDZANI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
OVER WATER WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS EDZANI MOVES INTO THE RIDGE AXIS.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMO AND GFS
MODELS DEPICTING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK INDICATIVE OF A ZONAL MID-
LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS INDICATING A
MORE POLEWARD-DIPPING TRACK CAUSED BY A DEEPER, RIDGE-WEAKENING
TROUGH. THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE JTWC CONSENSUS WHICH
LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO EXTREMES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100107 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 80.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 80.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.3S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.8S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.3S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.9S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.2S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.4S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.1S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 79.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS IS SET BETWEEN DVORAK T-NUMBER VALUES RANGING
FROM 2.5 (PGTW) AND 4.0 (FMEE) AND IS CONSISTENT WITH IMPROVING LOW
LEVEL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA,
INCLUDING A 062257Z AMSU-B IMAGE. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW EXTENSIVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR A
FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN THE 062257Z AMSU-B AND OTHER RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGES. TC 07S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CYCLONE. GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS STEERING
RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON STORM MOTION. HOWEVER, AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING
RIDGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, INDUCING A BIT MORE POLEWARD
TRACK AFTER TAU 72. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, PERHAPS EXPERIENCING A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION STRONGER THAT REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
(OHC), AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL SUPPORT THIS
INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF
SOMEWHAT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TRACKING OVER LOWER OHC VALUES. THE
NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE UKMO AND GFS
MODELS DEPICTING A WEAKER CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE NOGAPS, GFDN,
AND ECMWF MODELS TRACKING A STRONGER SYSTEM MORE POLEWARD IN
RESPONSE TO RIDGE WEAKENING IN THE UPPER LEVELS BY MID-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVES TO THE SOUTH. THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE JTWC
CONSENSUS, WHICH LIES CLOSER TO THE NOGAPS, GFDN, AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS AND IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100107 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 14.4S 79.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 79.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.1S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.6S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.2S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.0S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.5S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.6S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.5S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 79.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AS EVIDENCED BY TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDS
AROUND A WELL-DEFINED PINHOLE EYE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL WHILE
MAINTAINING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY A
071241Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EYE FIX FROM PGTW AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED
BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM FMEE, KNES, AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 07S IS APPROACHING THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM HAS
DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD, PROVIDING AN EFFICIENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW MECHANISM. FURTHER FUELING ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
ARE THE HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ALONG THE TC'S TRACK. GIVEN
THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TC EDZANI IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING UP TO TAU 48 BEFORE IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS DUE TO
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST WITH UKMET AND GFDN ON THE FAR RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE,
FAVORING A WEAKER SYSTEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE ENSEMBLE FAVORS A
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 071200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100108 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 78.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 78.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.9S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.7S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.6S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.7S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.9S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.5S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.9S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 77.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON HIGH
CONFIDENCE SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 125 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS
OF 6.5 FROM PGTW AND 6.0 FROM FMEE. TC 07S HAS CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. A 15 NM DIAMETER EYE IS EVIDENT IN 080000Z INFRARED
IMAGERY AS WELL AS RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A
POLEWARD STAIRSTEP OCCURRING SOMETIME AROUND TAU 72 AS A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENS THE STEERING
RIDGE SLIGHTLY. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO APPROXIMATELY MAINTAIN
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT PASSES OVER HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES. AFTER TAU 24, A
SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE IN RESPONSE TO
DECREASING ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE UKMET
MODEL SOLUTION (EGRR), WHICH IS DEPICTING A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN
ANTICIPATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, IS TRACKING THE CYCLONE WITH
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AS THE SOLE WESTWARD OUTLIER. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z AND 090300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100108 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 77.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 77.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.8S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.9S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.6S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.7S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.0S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.0S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 26.9S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 76.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON DVORAK EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE
WITH A T-NUMBER OF 7.0 FROM BOTH AGENCIES. TC 07S HAS CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. A 15 NM DIAMETER EYE IS EVIDENT IN 081200Z INFRARED
IMAGERY AS WELL AS RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A POLEWARD STAIR-STEP OCCURRING SOMETIME AROUND
TAU 72 AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE SLIGHTLY. TC EDZANI WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IN
RESPONSE TO DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MOST OF
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS.
THE UKMET SOLUTION, WHICH IS DEPICTING A WEAKER SYSTEM, IS TRACKING
THE CYCLONE WITH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AS THE SOLE WESTWARD
OUTLIER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100109 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 75.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 75.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.0S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.5S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.1S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.6S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.1S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.4S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.6S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 75.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1155 NM
EAST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY SPEED AND
DIRECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE HAS
BECOME BEEN ON A STEADY WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS
WELL, BECOMING CLOUD FILLED AROUND 082200Z. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 07S AND WILL CAUSE A MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 96. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING THE STR TO BEGIN BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF TC
07S AROUND TAU 96, PUSHING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. A SECONDARY
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07S WILL BEGIN TO
CAPTURE THE LLCC KEEPING IT ON A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWARD TRACK EVEN
AS THE STR RE-DEVELOPS. COMPLETE CAPTURE OF THE LLCC IS NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL AFTER TAU 120. DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BEYOND TAU 60 WILL CAUSE TC
07S TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND
100300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100109 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 73.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 73.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.7S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.4S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.0S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.3S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.1S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 29.0S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 34.0S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 73.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1030 NM
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A WELL-DEFINED, 12-NM EYE AND A 091239Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DIFFUSE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WANING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH HAS CAUSED TC 07S TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC EDZANI WILL START TO
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH RE-ORIENTS
THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY
TAU 96, TC 07S IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF ANOTHER PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WITH DECREASING OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT VALUES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SYSTEM
INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
DESPITE PERIODS OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THIS FORECAST WAS
BASED ON THE JTWC CONSENSUS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF, GFS,
GFDN AND NOGAPS MODEL AIDS. THE UKMO SOLUTION IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER
TO THE WEST AS IT CALLS FOR A MORE ZONAL MID-LATITUDE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100110 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 72.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 72.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.8S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.2S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.6S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.6S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.0S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.0S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 34.9S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 72.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER VISIBLE IN
INFRARED IMAGERY, BUT WAS IDENTIFIABLE IN A 102043Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE
PASS. THE MOST RECENT DVORAK FIX FROM PGTW INDICATED THE EYE FEATURE
HAD WEAKENED TO SPIRAL BAND CURVATURE. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AS TC 07S TRACKS SOUTHWARD SEA SURFACE TEMP-
ERATURES (SST) ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF
DECREASING OUTFLOW AND COOLER SST VALUES HAVE CAUSED THE CURRENT
WEAKENING TREND IN THE INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SST
VALUES DECREASE FURTHER AND INCREASED INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES CAUSES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES TO INCREASE.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THE DOMINANT
STEERING SOURCE, HOWEVER, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS
GOING TO CAUSE TC 07S TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND ITS INFLUENCE IS LOST.
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO CAPTURE TC 07S,
RATHER AN EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL BUILD BACK IN TO THE SOUTH OF TC
07S AND CAUSE A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND TAU 36. A SECOND MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07S BETWEEN TAU 72 AND
96 AND IS EXPECTED TO CAPTURE EDZANI. THIS WILL LEAD TO TC 07S
STARTING TO MAKE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AROUND TAU 96,
WITH FULL ET EXPECTED BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100110 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 22.1S 71.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 71.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.2S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 25.4S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 26.1S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.6S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 28.9S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 32.9S 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 37.4S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 71.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE BANDING AND SHOWS THE EYE HAS FILLED WITHIN
THE LAST 12 HOURS. THEREFORE THE CURRENT POSITION WAS DETERMINED
USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER TECHNIQUE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 101226Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. AS THE EYE HAS FILLED, THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO
WEAKENED BY 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. BUOYS IN THE VICINITY
OF TC 07S ARE REPORTING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 26
DEGREES CELSIUS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW SINCE THE LAST FORECAST, THOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
RECENTLY IMPROVED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PASSING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO HELPING TO RE-ORIENT
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IT WILL
ENABLE TC 07S TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY. AS THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES, TC 07S IS STILL EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN
TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. AFTER TAU 72
ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A STEERING
INFLUENCE AS IT WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND ALLOWS TC 07S TO TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD, ACCELERATE, AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO WITH THE UKMO MODEL
SOLUTION (EGRR) BEING THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z AND 111500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100111 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 24.2S 71.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 71.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 25.7S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 26.4S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 27.1S 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.9S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.6S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 34.6S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 24.6S 71.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 900 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IMPINGING THE OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SYSTEM, AND HAS CAUSED CONVECTION ON THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT TO DISSIPATE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) CONTINUE TO
DROP AS TC 07S TRACKS MORE SOUTHWARD. THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED OVER THE
LAST 06 HOURS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST HAS WEAKENED DUE TO THE EASTWARD PASSAGE OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STR RE-DEVELOPS TO THE
SOUTH OF TC 07S. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 48 WHEN ANOTHER TRANS-
ITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF EDZANI
AND CAPTURE THE WEAKENING LLCC. FURTHER INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH, DECREASING SST VALUES OF THE SYSTEM, AND STIFLED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET)
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, WITH THE COMPLETION OF THE ET PROCESS BY TAU
96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100111 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 25.8S 72.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S 72.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 26.5S 72.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 27.1S 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.9S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 29.5S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 72.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 970 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DECREASING
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, INDICATING
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FOR
THE PAST 12 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, TC 07S HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED DUE TO BOTH LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) VALUES (LESS
THAN 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VWS.
CURRENTLY, AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS PASSING TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, WEAKENING THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE A
SECOND RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF TC 07S SHOULD CONTINUE PUSHING
EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE
AXIS AND TURN BACK TO THE SOUTWEST. TC 07S SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT FURTHER ENCOUNTERS LOW SSTS AND HIGH VWS. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST AND IT
ALSO INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM COULD STILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 96 IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPSTREAM
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100112 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 26.1S 72.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1S 72.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.8S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 28.2S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 72.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 975 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK FRONTAL SIGNATURE WITH COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS
WRAPPING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY ERODED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH SOME
WEAK CONVECTION REMAINING ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT WITHIN THE
WARM FRONTAL ZONE. AN 11/1738Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATED AN EXPANDING
WIND FIELD TYPICAL OF A SYSTEM UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) WITH 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. AN 11/21Z
AMSU CROSS-SECTION DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY, TYPICAL OF ETT,
WITH A RAPIDLY DECAYING MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL MIDLATITUDE LOW OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS, THE
LLCC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND IS
CONTINUING TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AS WELL AS THE ASCAT
DATA. TC 07S HAS SLOWED AND TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING WESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT REMAINS CUT OFF, TEMPORARILY, FROM THE UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY JET. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS TRACK. TC 07S SHOULD CONTINUE ETT AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 12. TC O7S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 40 KNOT INTENSITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM SST, AIDED BY WEAK
BAROCLINICITY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE ETT PROCESS IS UNUSUAL
AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE EVENT DEEP CONVECTION RE-
DEVELOPS OVER THE LLCC BUT THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY. BASED ON
THE LLCC SIGNATURE, THE PREVIOUS DISSIPATION SCENARIO WAS ASSESSED
AS UNLIKELY AS WELL WITH EVENTUAL RE-INTENSIFICATION AS A EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM LIKELY AFTER TAU 48. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 15 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100112 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 26.7S 70.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 70.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.1S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 29.7S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 32.3S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 34.3S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 69.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND HAS WRAPPED INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. THIS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE AMSU
CROSS-SECTIONS, WHICH SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED MID-LEVEL WARM
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY. BOTH THE 12/0454Z AND 12/1717Z ASCAT IMAGES AND
850MB VORTICITY PRODUCTS INDICATE A SYMMETRIC, 40-45 KNOT TROPICAL
SYSTEM. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS ALSO SHOW A
STRENGTHENING, SYMMETRIC DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE. THE LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW ALSO SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE LLCC, HOWEVER, ANTICYCLONIC POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM (WITH WESTERLY FLOW INHIBITING OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT) POSSIBLY HINTING AT WEAKENING OF THE UPPER-LOW. RE-ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM BEGAN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
PROCESS BUT DID NOT COMPLETE ETT AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED DUE TO A
TRANSITORY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH IS PRODUCING A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. TC 07S HAS MAINTAINED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
DESPITE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTER AND HAS SLOWLY RE-
CONSOLIDATED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT HAVE SEPARATED AND TRACKED AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM. EARLIER
INDICATIONS OF COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENED
ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVERALL, THE PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE
SUPPORTS THE TROPICAL (WARM CORE) ASSESSMENT AND REISSUANCE OF
WARNINGS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT TRACK AS WELL AS THE FORECAST AND TIMING OF ETT. TC 07S
SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE TRANSITORY RIDGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-
CURVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AFTER TAU 24 AND
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER
COOLER, INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SST (25-20C) DUE PRIMARILY TO THE
GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100113 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 28.1S 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1S 68.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 29.9S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 32.1S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 28.5S 67.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT REMNANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ASYMMETRICAL AS IT GOT CAUGHT IN THE STRONG
WESTERLIES. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST AMSU CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHENED MID-LEVEL WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALY, ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A RAPID INFLUX OF COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BANDS INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM
PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RESUMED
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET). TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RECURVING
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TAU 12 AND COMPLETE ET BY TAU 24. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 13 FEET.NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100113 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 30.3S 67.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3S 67.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 32.8S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 35.2S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 30.9S 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840 NM SOUTHEAST
OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FOR TC 07S REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED
BUT IS COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD. THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED,
WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LLCC. A 131656Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE LLCC STILL HAS WINDS BETWEEN 35
TO 45 KNOTS AND IS SYMMETRIC IN SHAPE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
ARE HELPING TO VENT THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPER-
ATURES (SST) ARE AROUND 24 CELSIUS WITH COOLER AIR STARTING TO
ISOLATE THE SYSTEM FROM WARMER EQUATORIAL INFLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
HALF. AMSU CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE TC 07S IS STILL MAINTAINING
TROPICAL WARM-CORE CHARACTERISTICS. INCREASING INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST, IS
LEADING TO TC 07S UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET). THE
CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES THAT TC 07S WILL BE FULLY ET BY TAU 24 AS
VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST, WHICH IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100114 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 33.2S 68.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.2S 68.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 36.0S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 39.7S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 33.9S 69.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 980 NM SOUTHEAST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THOUGH OVERALL CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASED AND SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM,
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140554Z TRMM IMAGE
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RESIDUAL CENTRAL CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, A
140413Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS FAIRLY SYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 35-40 KTS
CLOSEST TO THE SYSTEM CENTER. FINALLY, A 140001Z AMSU RADIAL CROSS-
SECTION STILL DEPICTS A WARM CORE TEMPERATURE ANOMALLY ALOFT, THOUGH
IT IS ON A DECLINING TREND WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ELEVATION,
SIGNALING THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DUE TO THESE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND ORGANIZATION OF TC 07S, THE COMPLETION
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) INTO A JET-SUPPORTED BAROCLINIC
SYSTEM HAS BEEN DELAYED BY 12 HOURS. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY POLEWARD OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT COMPLETES ET BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST, WHICH IS BASED ON THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100114 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 36.4S 72.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 36.4S 72.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 39.7S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 37.2S 74.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1265 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE TRACK SPEED FOR TC 07S HAS INCREASED SIGNIFI-
CANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AS THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW HAS BECOME
THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. INTENSITY REMAINS HIGH AT 35 KNOTS,
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 12
FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_edzani_jtwc_advisories.htm
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