Updated: 17 June 2020
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]
| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone GELANE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2009-2010 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone GELANE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20100215 22:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6S 58.9E TO 13.2S 60.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
151800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.9S
59.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S
58.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 59.0E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND A
151318Z SSMIS SHOWS ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IN ADDITION, A 151719Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS
A WELL-ORGANIZED AND TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30
KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, FMEE, AND KNES ALSO CONFIRM A 30
KNOT SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW. A TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS WELL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29
DEGREES CELSIUS), LOW VWS, AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100216 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/152221Z FEB 10//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 11.0S 59.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 59.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 12.1S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 13.1S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.7S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.3S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.1S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.2S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.1S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 59.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A MID-LATITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO THE SOUTHWEST IS PROVIDING A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT MAY ALSO BE HINDERING INTENSIFICATION.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. IT IS BASED ON A
152131Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATION OF INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 16P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AND BY TAU
72 SHOULD BEGIN TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST BY A STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO INTENSIFY DUE TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH, BUT THEN WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY AS THE TROUGH
TRANSITS DOWNSTREAM AND/OR FILLS, REACHING A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 152230).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100216 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 60.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 60.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 13.8S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.6S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.2S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.8S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.7S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.4S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.4S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 60.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT ARE STARTING TO WRAP INTO
THE SYSTEM CENTER. CURRENT POSITIONING CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, FMEE AND KNES OF
45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NEAR A RIDGE
AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHILE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A PASSING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 16S HAS TRACKED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 48, THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND ENABLE
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, TAKE OVER AS THE
STEERING INFLUENCE AND GUIDE THE SYSTEM MORE SOUTHWESTWARD.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
START TO WANE. NEVERTHELESS, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
INTO THE EXTENDED TAU'S DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. THE MODEL AIDS ARE STILL SPREAD AT THIS
TIME AS THE MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH TO STRENGTHEN THE BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF MODELS APPEAR TO DEVELOP A
STRONG STEERING RIDGE WHILE THE GFS AND UKMO MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER
ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS A STRONGER RIDGE SCENARIO
AND SUBSQUENTLY LEANS ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND
171500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100217 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 13.4S 60.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 60.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.1S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.7S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.5S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.2S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.5S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.4S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.9S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 60.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), AND A 162143Z AMSRE IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF TC 16S IS PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AND A POINT SOURCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. CURRENTLY, TC GELANE IS TRACKING ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND BY TAU 48,
SHOULD BEGIN TO BE STEERED SOUTHWEST BY A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. DUE TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, TC
16S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EGRR MODEL, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM
EASTWARD. THIS IS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO BECAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 170000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100217 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 61.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 61.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.8S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.7S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.6S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.5S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.1S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.4S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.7S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 61.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SIX HOURS AGO, TC GELANE DEVELOPED A 15-NM
VISIBLE EYE THAT YIELDED DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
FMEE. HOWEVER, ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE HAS SINCE
ERODED. SUBSEQUENTLY, RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN TO THE
65- TO 77-KNOT RANGE. NEVERTHELESS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80
KNOTS IS BASED IN PART ON A 170957Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
REVEALS A TIGHTLY WOUND, THOUGH VERY SMALL, CYCLONE WITH A PINHOLE
MICROWAVE EYE. IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
THOUGH IT ALSO ILLUSTRATES THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE OUTFLOW-
ENHANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME, THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SYSTEM'S GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AS IT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH. THEREFORE,
TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLIGHTLY EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE GIVING WAY
TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. DUE TO
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, TC GELANE WILL CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO MODEL SOLUTION,
WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM DUE EASTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS. THIS REMAINS AN
UNLIKELY SCENARIO DUE TO THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100218 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 62.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 62.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.2S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.7S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.5S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.9S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.7S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.5S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 62.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND MAINTAINED A COMPACT SYMMETRICAL AREA
OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE 172330Z FIX FROM PGTW AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES RANGING
FROM T4.0 TO T4.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 16S IS BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS
- THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC GELANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO THE STR. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS MORE POLEWARD, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING VWS. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE TRACKS THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT WITH UKMET SKEWING THE TRACK WEST OF THE
PACK THEN ABRUPTLY MOVING IT DUE EAST AFTER TAU 48. NOGAPS IS NOTABLY
THE FASTEST OF THE GROUP. THIS FORECAST IS INITIALLY SLOWER THAN
CONSENSUS THEN CATCHES UP ON THE MID-TRACK BEFORE IT SPEEDS UP
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF CONSENSUS AT THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND
190300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100218 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 62.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 62.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.2S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.2S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.0S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.9S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.6S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.4S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 24.2S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A MIDGET-LIKE SYSTEM WITH A 10 NM DIAMETER EYE AND
WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. A 180935Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
CONFIRMS A TIGHTLY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SMALL EYE FEATURE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 16S IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH
IS HINDERING OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HOWEVER, AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR 28S 87E AND TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS
ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH. TC GELANE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TURNING SOUTHWARD
THEN BEGIN TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24 AS THE STR
BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE STR IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST ALLOWING TC 16S TO TRACK ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY IN A
POLEWARD DIRECTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET, WHICH
CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WESTWARD. TC 16S
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 72
LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
TAU 72 DUE TO COOLER SST AND MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100218 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.7S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.7S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.6S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.5S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.0S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.3S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.4S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
COMPACT SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON THE 182330Z DVORAK FIX FROM PGTW OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 16S IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK,
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 16S IS
TRACKING ON A MORE SOUTHWARD DIRECTION AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTH GAINS STEERING CONTROL OVER THE SYSTEM. TC GELANE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STR
BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET,
WHICH CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY TRACK THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100219 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 16.3S 62.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 62.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.2S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.1S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.0S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.9S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.3S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.7S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.2S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 62.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT
SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM AN
182131Z 37 GHZ AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 182330Z DVORAK FIX
FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 16S IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TC 16S IS HAS BEGUN TO TRACKING ON
A SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH
ASSUMES STEERING OVER THE SYSTEM. TC GELANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, PEAKING AT 105
KNOTS BEFORE IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET,
WHICH CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY TRACK THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100219 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 62.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 62.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.4S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.4S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.3S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.3S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.9S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 23.5S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.9S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 62.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SMALL, APPROXIMATELY 120-150 NM DIAMETER SYSTEM, WITH
A SMALL 8-NM ROUND EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AS WELL AS THE 6-HOUR MOTION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TURNING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A
RELATIVELY SLOW TRACK SPEED OF 05-06 KNOTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE MAJORITY OF AIDS SUPPORTING THIS
TRACK TO INCLUDE GFDN, ECMWF, WBAR, AND NOGAPS. THE UKMET
AND GFS TRACKERS REMAIN OUTLIERS AND APPEAR TO BE ERRONEOUS.
THE UKMET, WHICH INDICATES A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD CENTRAL
MADAGASCAR, TRACKS THE SYSTEM INTO WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER MADAGASCAR. THE GFS TRACKS THE
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE STR. THIS
FORECAST FAVORS A TRACK CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS, ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY FASTER AT THE EXTENDED TAUS, WITH GFS AND UKMET OFF-SETTING
EACH OTHER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100219 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 17.3S 62.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 62.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.0S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.0S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.9S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.8S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.4S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 24.0S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.3S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 62.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SMALL, APPROXIMATELY 120-150 NM DIAMETER SYSTEM, WITH
A SMALL 10-NM ROUND EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AS WELL AS THE 6-HOUR MOTION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY SLOW TRACK SPEED
OF 05-06 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE
MAJORITY OF AIDS SUPPORTING THIS TRACK TO INCLUDE GFDN, ECMWF,
UKMET, WBAR, AND NOGAPS. HOWEVER, UKMET AND ECMWF INDICATE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM (LESS THAN 50 KNOTS) STEERING UNDER THE
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARD CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. THE GFS
TRACKER REMAINS AN OUTLIER AND APPEARS TO BE ERRONEOUS, TRACKING
THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LEVEL STR.
BASED ON THE MID-LEVEL STEERING PATTERN AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM, THIS FORECAST FAVORS A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK JUST WEST OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z
IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND
201500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100219 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 62.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 62.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.9S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.0S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.9S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.0S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 23.5S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.8S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.9S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 61.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND HAS WARMED, INDICATING SLIGHT WEAKENING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BECAUSE IT IS BASED
ON THE EYE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND FMEE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 127 KNOTS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION, BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST IS SUPPORTING MODERATE OUTFLOW. TC 16S
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD AND TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS
FARTHER SOUTH AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CAUSED BY A TRANSITORY TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK, EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND EGRR
MODELS, WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERESTIMATE CURRENT INTENSITIES AND
TRACK TC GELANE WESTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z, AND 202100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100220 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 61.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 61.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.3S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.3S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.3S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.2S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.7S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.8S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.3S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 61.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. GELANE HAS WEAKENED AN ADDITIONAL 10 KNOTS
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE EYE HAS BECOME IRREGULAR AND CLOUD-
FILLED, HOWEVER TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IS STILL EVIDENT IN ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND HAS HELPED WITH IDENTIFYING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED ON THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW INDICATE A 90 TO 115
KNOT SYSTEM, HOWEVER FIXES FROM FMEE ESTIMATE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD
BE AS WEAK AS 80 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTH-SOUTWESTWARD ALONG THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED VENTING ALOFT. ONCE THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS TO ABOUT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, NEAR TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK PROGRESSIVELY WESTWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO HAVE STABILIZED NEAR
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, ECMWF AND EGRR CONTINUE TO
INITIALIZE A MUCH WEAKER CYCLONE AND PREMATURELY DRIVE THE SYSTEM
WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100220 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 18.9S 61.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 61.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.7S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.8S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.8S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.8S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 24.2S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.3S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.9S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 61.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND WEAKEND BY 10 KNOTS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS COMPLETELY FILLED
AND INRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED DUE TO
SUPPRESSION BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DIMINISHING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE LOW TO THE EAST. THE
CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTWESTWARD
ALONG THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND LIMITED VENTING ALOFT. ONCE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO ABOUT
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, NEAR TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
PROGRESSIVELY WESTWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS APPEARS TO HAVE STABILIZED NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK. HOWEVER, ECMWF AND EGRR CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE A MUCH WEAKER
CYCLONE AND PREMATURELY DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100220 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 19.4S 61.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 61.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.5S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.7S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.7S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 23.7S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.0S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.9S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS LOOSELY
BASED ON A BROAD RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OFFERED BY KNES (65-90
KNOTS), PGTW (77-102 KNOTS) AND FMEE (55-65 KNOTS). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE FROM A 200919Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST HAS CUT OFF GELANE'S OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO
THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE LOW FURTHER TO THE EAST. THE FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS WARNING MESSAGES THOUGH THE
SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 96. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS THOUGH THE ECMWF, GFS, AND WBAR SOLUTIONS
HINT AT A POLEWARD TURN TOWARDS THE EXTENDED TAU'S. INSTEAD, THIS
FORECAST REFLECTS A MORE WESTWARD TURN AS THE DRASTICALLY-WEAKENED
SYSTEM STARTS TO TURN WITH THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100220 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 20.0S 61.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 61.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.0S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.1S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 23.1S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 24.0S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 25.4S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 61.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE 12 TO 24 HOURS SOONER
THAN INDICATED IN WARNING NUMBER 14. IN ADDITION, THAT INITIAL
FORECAST INTENSITY WAS RE-EVALUATED AND ASSESSED AS BEING SLIGHTLY
HIGH GIVEN THE TOLL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DETRIMENTAL PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH HAS HAD ON THE STRUCTURE AND ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM. A 200442Z ASCAT IMAGE ALSO CONFIRMED A MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AT THIS TIME ONLY WEAK AND LIMITED
BANDING REMAINS, PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE LLCC, AND THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE LLCC IS HIDDEN
BENEATH AN OBLONG AND EXPANSIVE FLARE OF CENTRAL CONVECTION MAKING
PINPOINTING THE LLCC DIFFICULT. BASED ON A WIDE RANGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE, THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS, AND CONTINUES TO STEADILY WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT TAU 48 AND WILL
TRACK INCREASINGLY WEST THEREAFTER AS THE LLCC IS PICKED UP BY THE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. IF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS FASTER THAN FORECAST
THEN IT IS PROBABLE THAT THE LLCC WILL TURN WESTWARD SOONER. THIS
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z,
210900Z, 211500Z, AND 212100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100221 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 61.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 61.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.8S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.8S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 23.8S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.7S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.6S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 61.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
STEADILY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GREATER WEAKENING OCCURRING
AT THE LATER FORECAST TAUS. MORE RECENTLY A MICROWAVE EYE HAS FORMED
(202120Z AMSRE), COINCIDING WITH THE FILLING OF THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND A RELAXATION OF PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. REGARDLESS THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEGRADE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE ARE ALSO INHIBITING EQUATORWARD VENTING AND ADVERSELY
AFFECTING THE SYMMETRY OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. BECAUSE OF THE
MICROWAVE EYE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE
STEADYING AROUND 65 KNOTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BENEFIT
FROM AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS INCREASE IN OUTFLOW SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN
A 60 KNOT CIRCULATION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS LONG AS VWS DOES NOT
ELEVATE TOO QUICKLY. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN INTERPOLATED FROM
THE ABOVE AMSRE IMAGE WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE FORECAST
TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. AS THE STORM WEAKENS DUE TO
ELEVATED VWS IT WILL SHALLOW AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SUBJECT TO THE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES THAT WILL TREND THE SYSTEM WEST OVER TIME.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100221 09:00z AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 017A AMENDED AND
RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 017A AMENDED AND
RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 20.9S 61.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 61.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.8S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.8S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 61.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED MORE RAPIDLY THAN
EXPECTED AND IS NOW FULLY-EXPOSED WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED 160 NM EAST. THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED,
HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS WELL-DEFINED.
BASED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY, THE 21/06Z POSITION WAS RELOCATED
50 NM NORTHWEST OF THE ORIGINAL WARNING POSITION OF 21.6S 62.0E.
TC 16S IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH AND IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-45 KNOTS FROM KNES AND
PGTW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. THIS WARNING WAS AMENDED DUE
TO THE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE LLCC AND THE SIGNIFICANT TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECAST CHANGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100221 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 20.2S 60.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 60.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.0S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 60.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IS DECOUPLED MORE THAN 200 NM FROM ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND IS
RAPIDLY WEAKENING. BASED ON 1730Z DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW
AND FMEE THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35
KNOTS. THE LLCC WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TOWARDS MAURITIUS, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE IN A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211800Z IS 14 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
|
Document: tropical_cyclone_gelane_jtwc_advisories.htm
Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]
|