Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone MAGDA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2009-2010 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 20100119 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S 122.1E TO 15.7S 123.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 191730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9S 122.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
121.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 122.3E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. A 191315Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT WINDS
EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM ARE AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH SOME 30 KNOT
WINDS IDENTIFIED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 191751Z AMSU-B PASS
INDICATES SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, WITH
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A STR AXIS WHICH IS PROVIDING
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AT A LOW
LEVEL OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
202100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100120 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.7S 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.1S 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.9S 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.7S 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.4S 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.2S 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.9S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 122.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MAGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A
201705Z AMSR-E IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
AND HINTS AT POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH A FORMATIVE
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THIS AMSR-E IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND APRF OF 45 KNOTS (PGTW IS AT 35 KNOTS)
BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE SIGNATURE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
HAS ALSO IMPROVED WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY, HOWEVER, DOES INDICATE SLIGHT PRESSURE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO WEAK EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. TC 08S IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, PROVIDING A WESTWARD
TO SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A 15 KNOT PER DAY RATE BUT THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE OCCURRING IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 192051Z JAN 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 192100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND
212100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100121 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 123.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 123.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.1S 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 15.8S 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.5S 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.1S 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.8S 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.6S 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 123.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MAGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEADLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE
SAME ANIMATION SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM,
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA. TC 08S
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN CAPTURED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT ENJOYS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TC MAGDA
WILL MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 36 THEN CROSS KING SOUND BEFORE IT MAKES
ANOTHER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE AS SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
GREAT SANDY DESERT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100121 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 15.1S 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.0S 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.8S 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.5S 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.3S 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.6S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 124.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MAGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 211731Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION
AND TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION BASED ON CORROBORATING DATA
BETWEEN THE 211731Z AMSU IMAGE AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE BROOME
RADAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROUGHING ALONG THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM WEAKENING OUTFLOW TO THE WEST, WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW STILL
REMAINS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS TC MAGDA MAKES LANDFALL IN THE LATER
TAUS IT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU
72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220900Z AND 222100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100122 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 124.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 124.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.6S 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.5S 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 124.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MAGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEADLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL VIA COLLIER BAY AND IS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY A COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RADAR
LOOP FROM BROOME SHOWING THE HEAVY RAINSHOWERS, MOSTLY ON THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SYSTEM, FAST DECAYING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATIONS AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FROM THE CLOUD SIGNATURE ON A 220339Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
BY TAU 24. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNING AT 222100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100122 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.0S 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 124.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MAGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 08S HAS TRACKED OVER LAND AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER LAND UNTIL IT HAS DISSIPATED. HOWEVER, THERE WERE A FEW MODELS
THAT INDICATED TC 08S COULD TURN BACK TOWARDS THE COAST AND POSSIBLY
REDEVELOP. THE CURRENT FORECAST REASONING DOES NOT FAVOR THIS
SCENARIO, BUT INSTEAD FAVORS A CONTINUED TRACK INLAND AS DEPICTED BY
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_magda_jtwc_advisories.htm
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