Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone NISHA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2009-2010 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone NISHA Track Map and Data |
WTPS31 PGTW 20100127 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 169.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 169.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.1S 168.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.8S 167.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.9S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.5S 165.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.1S 161.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.5S 156.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.5S 151.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 169.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND DEEPENING OF THE
CYCLONE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 30 (PHFO) TO 35 KNOTS (PGTW AND NFFN). OBSERVATIONS FROM
TA'U AIRPORT, AMERICAN SAMOA, FURTHER SUPPORT A 35 KNOT SYSTEM WITH
SUSTAINED NORTH-NORTHWESTERLIES OF 33 KNOTS AS OF 1254Z, GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 46 KNOTS. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (SLP) HAS ALSO DROPPED 11.3 MB
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AT THIS SITE. NEARBY PAGO PAGO IS ALSO
REPORTING SLP AT 997.5 MB WITH 16 KNOT SUSTAINED WEST-
NORTHWESTERLIES AND SIMILAR 24 HOUR PRESSURE TRENDS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY BENEATH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT,
TO INCLUDE: LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED RADIAL VENTING,
WHILE TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS WELL. THIS FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND 281500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100128 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 167.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 167.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.4S 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.7S 163.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.9S 161.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.7S 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.3S 155.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.9S 151.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.4S 146.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 167.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (NISHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 10P HAS RAPIDLY ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING TO
A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT
272042Z TRMM PASS INDICATED THAT AN ELONGATED MICROWAVE EYE WAS
STARTING TO DEVELOP. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM OTHER AGENCIES, WHICH
INCLUDED A 2.5/2.5 DVORAK FIX FROM NFFN AND PHFO, DID NOT APPEAR TO
REPRESENT THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, SINCE OBSERVATIONS FROM TAU AIRPORT ON MANUA ISLAND BETWEEN
1054Z AND 1654Z INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 PLUS KNOTS WITH A
MAXIMUM OF 43 KNOTS OBSERVED AT 1654Z. CONSIDERING THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION SINCE 1654Z, A 2.5/3.0 DVORAK FIX FROM PGTW, AND A
3.0/3.0 DVORAK FROM KNES, THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
45 KNOTS. TC 10P IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE IN THE MID-LEVEL, BUT IS EXPECTED TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND TAU 72.
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
STR, AND LEAD TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK BEYOND TAU 96. A FAVOR-
ABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, BUT INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FROM TAU 72 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 290300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
09P (OLGA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100128 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 164.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 164.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.0S 163.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.3S 161.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.3S 159.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.1S 158.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.4S 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.4S 151.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.9S 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 164.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (NISHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 281136Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS AS WELL AS DEEP,
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) FROM THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS, CAUSING
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THAT A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY STEERING TC 10P AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH TAU 96 WHEN NISHA WILL TRACK MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
DUE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT REORIENTATION OF
THE RIDGE. ADDITIONALLY, TC NISHA WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS (>28
DEGREES CELSIUS) AND IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDN MODEL WHICH
TAKES THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD DUE TO A FORECAST OF WEAKER INTENSITIES.
THIS FORECAST FOLLOWED THE JTWC MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION. THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100129 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 20.4S 163.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 163.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.2S 161.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.9S 159.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.6S 157.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.1S 155.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.9S 153.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.5S 151.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.4S 149.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 163.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (NISHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IS BEING IMPACTED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE BY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CREATING MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). OUTFLOW FROM TC 10P WILL BE MAINTAINED BY THE GOOD WESTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE NER, ALLOWING TC 10P TO PERSIST AS A 45 KNOT SYSTEM
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AS THE NER IS FORE-
CAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE, CREATING A SIMILAR VWS AND OUTFLOW PATTERN.
THE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH NEAR EQUA-
TORIAL WESTERLIES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH, AND EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND A SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC
FROM THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE (BETWEEN 26 AND 28 CELSIUS) THROUGH TAU 120. THE TRACK WILL
REMAIN STEADY THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
NER, TRACKING TO THE EAST, BUT WILL SLOW AFTER TAU 72 AS AN EXTENSION
OF THE STR BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE TRACK, CAUSING A MORE SOUTH-
EASTWARD TURN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED BEYOND
TAU 72 AS TC 10P TRANSITIONS TO THE STR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST, BUT DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND, WITH THE FORECAST BASED PREDOMINANTLY ON
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100129 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 19.8S 162.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 162.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.8S 161.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.7S 160.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.3S 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.5S 159.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 161.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (NISHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10P IS POLEWARD OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER), IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ACCORDINGLY, ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 291204Z AMSR-E
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
LOCATED 150 NM WEST OF THE WEAKENED DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE, THE
SYSTEM'S INITIAL INTENSITY HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP ON A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT CAUSED BY THE DUAL
STEERING INFLUENCES OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE NER TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH, THERE IS NOW A LARGE
SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS STARTING FROM TAU 0. THEREFORE, TC 10P
IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHWEST, EXCEPT
FOR THE ECMWF AND WBAR SOLUTIONS WHICH MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT,
EASTWARD TRACK. IT APPEARS THAT A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE TAKING
NISHA TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW DUE TO ITS
DRASTICALLY WEAKENED STATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND 301500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100130 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 18.5S 162.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 162.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.2S 161.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 162.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (NISHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 291613Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS FULLY EXPOSED AND SHEARED APPROXIMATELY
280 NM WEST OF THE CONVECTION. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW
LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT, WITH UKMET, GFDN, AND NOGAPS TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND ECMWF AND GFS TRACKING THE SYSTEM EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 300000Z IS 17 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) FINAL
WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW).//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_nisha_jtwc_advisories.htm
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