Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone PAT : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2009-2010 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTPS21 PGTW 20100207 07:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7S 165.2W TO 13.1S 159.8W WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070522Z INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 164.5W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2S
164.9W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 164.5W, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-
EAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070548Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOW CURVED CONVECTION INTO A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-DEVELOPED
TROUGH. CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS NEAR THE
LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A POINT SOURCE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURAL ORGAN-
IZATION OF THE LLCC, WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080730Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100207 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070721Z FEB 10//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 10.7S 162.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 162.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.9S 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.1S 158.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.5S 157.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.7S 157.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.0S 158.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.4S 160.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.4S 163.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 161.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. A RECENT 071526Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE, IN
CONCERT WITH A 071557Z SSMIS IMAGE, SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). DESPITE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND PHFO RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM (PERHAPS CAUSING ERRONEOUSLY LOW DVORAK ESTIMATES), WHICH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WELL-DEVELOPED TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS, TC 14P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE, CURRENTLY ANCHORED EAST OF 120W, WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD WESTWARD AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH.
AROUND TAU 72, TC 14P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS IT
REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. BEYOND THE EXTENDED TAU'S, THE PASSING TROUGH MAY WEAKEN THE
STEERING RIDGE AND ENABLE TC 14P TO TURN POLEWARD. THE EARLY MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LIMITED AND A BIT SPREAD OUT, THOUGH IT HAS CONSISTENTLY
POINTED TO THE WESTWARD TURN OVER THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 070730). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z AND 082100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100208 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 12.8S 160.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 160.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.2S 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.4S 159.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.1S 160.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.8S 161.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.5S 163.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.1S 165.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.6S 168.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 160.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (PAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM EAST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS, SUPPORTING THE RECENT INCREASE TO 50
KNOTS FOR THIS FORECAST. A 080427Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHTLY
WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH A MICROWAVE EYE DIMPLE PRESENT, WHICH ALSO SUP-
PORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW INTO THE POLEWARD AND EQUA-
TORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 14P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PAT BUILDS
TO THE NORTHWEST, CAUSING A SLOW DOWN IN THE TRACK SPEED AS THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS FROM THE NER TO THE STR. THE STR
WILL CAUSE THE TRACK TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED NEAR TAU 96 AS THE
STR STRENGTHENS. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH
TAU 48 WITH THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. AS TC 14P TRACKS MORE
SOUTHWARD, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFI-
CANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND
090900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100208 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 159.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 159.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.7S 159.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.5S 159.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.3S 160.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.9S 161.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.3S 165.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.1S 169.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.8S 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 159.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (PAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST OF
PAGO-PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
A COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
TC 14P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH MINIMAL BANDING.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES
AND FROM MULTI-AGENCY FIXES INCLUDING PGTW, KNES, AND NFFN. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM
PGTW. TC PAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION AS A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ASSUMES STEERING OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, CAUSING IT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BY
TAU 120, TC 14P WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN UNISON AS FAR AS TURNING THE TRACK TO THE SOUTH THEN
TO THE SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER, THERE IS A NOTABLE SPREAD IN THE ENVELOPE
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST PAST TAU 24, WITH JGSM AND
ECMWF TO THE RIGHT OF THE PACK AND WBAR AND UKMET TO THE LEFT. THIS
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE ALONGSIDE JTWC CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100209 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 15.1S 159.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 159.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.1S 158.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.1S 159.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.2S 160.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.3S 162.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.0S 166.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.1S 169.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 25.8S 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 159.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (PAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST
OF PAGO-PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL 240
NM DIAMETER SYSTEM WITH CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION AND TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 090521Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, PHFO, KNES, AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 14P IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC
14P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK EXTENSION OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN AND BEGIN
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY BY TAU 36 AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO COOLER SSTS, REDUCED OHC, AND
INCREASED WESTERLY VWS. NEAR TAU 96 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
AND TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. BY TAU 120 TC 14P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE
INITIAL TAUS, BUT DIVERGES INTO TWO GROUPINGS IN THE LATER TAUS,
WITH GFS, ECMWF, AND JGSM INDICATING AN ERRONEOUS WESTWARD TRACK DUE
TO EXCESSIVE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION, WHILE UKMET, GFDN, TCLAPS,
WBAR, AND NOGAPS SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z AND 100900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100209 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 159.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 159.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.8S 159.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.9S 160.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.1S 162.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.1S 164.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.4S 168.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.4S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.1S 170.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 159.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (PAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH
OF RARATONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED
AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AS CONVECTIVE BANDS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED
FURTHER OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
1-KM RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE CURRENT IMAGERY IS BASED ON A T4.5
(77 KNOTS)DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST IN AN AREA OF LOW- TO MODERATE, ALBEIT INCREASING,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC PAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD
AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WILL INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES STRONG WESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. BEYOND TAU 24, TC 14P WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 96, TC
PAT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN MORE
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN THE INITIAL TAUS, BUT DIVERGES INTO TWO GROUPINGS IN THE
LATER TAUS, WITH GFS, ECMWF, AND JGSM INDICATING AN UNLIKELY
WESTWARD TRACK DUE TO EXCESSIVE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A
DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO THE WEST, WHILE UKMET, GFDN, TCLAPS, WBAR, AND
NOGAPS SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100210 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 159.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 159.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.3S 160.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.6S 162.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.9S 164.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.6S 167.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.7S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.1S 169.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 159.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (PAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH
OF RARATONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100428Z
TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A
ROUND 10 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH AXISYMMETRIC UNIFORM CONVECTION,
TYPICAL OF AN ANNULAR SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 14P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
OVER FAVORABLE SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 12,
TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
NEAR TAU 72 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT
AS IT BECOMES COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z AND 110900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100210 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 160.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 160.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.3S 161.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.3S 163.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.3S 165.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.3S 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 160.5W.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100211 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 20.8S 162.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 162.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.4S 165.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.3S 167.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.9S 169.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 163.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (PAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST
OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WESTER-
LIES HAVE COMPLETELY SHEARED THE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION FROM THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF TC 14P CONTINUES TO BUILD BUT IS QUICKLY BEING
SHEARED TO THE EAST AS WELL. DVORAK FIXES HAVE SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. THIS FORECAST REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF THE ESTIMATES, WITH 55 KNOTS, AS IMAGERY STILL INDICATES THE LLCC
IS WELL ORGANIZED. DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAKENING OBSERVED.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES THIS WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 36 WITH THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING UNFAVORABLE. DISSIPATION OF THE
LLCC IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 36 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST KEEPS TC 14P QUICKLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100211 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 21.5S 165.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 165.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.8S 168.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 166.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (PAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST
OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
COMPLETELY DECOUPLED SYSTEM WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS EXPERIENCED HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STARTED TO TRACK WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE REMANTS OF TC 14P WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_pat_jtwc_advisories.htm
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