Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Season 2009-2010 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTPS21 PGTW 20100210 05:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1S 172.3W TO 13.1S 167.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 100500Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 171.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
172.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 171.4W, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND INCREASING CONVECTION. A
100103Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PAGO
PAGO INDICATE A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1003.7 MB WITH A DECREASE OF 2
MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM ENHANCING OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110530Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100211 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100521Z FEB 10//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.3S 167.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 167.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.1S 166.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.9S 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.5S 166.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.3S 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.1S 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.6S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.1S 174.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 167.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS. INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO AS
WELL AS A 102002Z ASCAT PASS. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A WESTERLY
WIND BURST ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC 15P, WHICH IS INDICATIVE
OF THE ACTIVE PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIEN OSCILLATION. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH A POINT
SOURCE ALOFT PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY STEERING TC 15P BUT
WILL GIVE WAY TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES IN CONCERT WITH
IMPROVING OUTFLOW DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 100530). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100211 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 166.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 166.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.0S 166.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.8S 167.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.7S 168.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.5S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.6S 173.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.9S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.4S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 166.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
INCREASED IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AN 110638Z SSMIS
INDICATED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WAS DISPLACED
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. BASED ON THE TRACKING OF
FEATURES IN AN ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP, THE LLCC APPEARS TO
BE SLOWING AND STARTING TO TURN SOUTHWARD. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 15P HAS STARTED TO OVERCOME THE INFLU-
ENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AND IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SPEED
INCREASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24 THE STR WILL KEEP
RENE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND TAU 96 AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE STR TO SHIFT ALLOWING FOR THE TRACK TO
TURN SOUTHWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE LLCC AND IS PROVIDING AMPLE EQUATOR-
WARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
STEADILY BASED ON THE CONTINUED GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH AN
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS TC 15P APPROACHES STRONG UPPER
LEVEL MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES THROUGH TAU 72. INCREASING INTERACTION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CAUSING A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF TC 15P BY TAU 120. MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100211 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 12.6S 166.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 166.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.4S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.4S 167.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.3S 169.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.3S 171.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.6S 174.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.2S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.1S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 166.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TIGHT WRAPPING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND INDICATES THAT TC 15P HAS
SLOWED AND TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON A 111748Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHILE
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, NFFN AND PHFO. TC 15P CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING AS
IT IS TRANSITIONING BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC RENE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING IN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL START
TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER DAY THREE, HOWEVER,
GFDN AND NOGAPS DEPICT A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAT SIGNIFIES
THE SYSTEM MAY REMAIN EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.
INSTEAD, THIS FORECAST CONTINUES THE TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMO SOLUTION AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS PHILOSOPHY RELIES ON AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z,
120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100212 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 12.8S 166.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 166.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.5S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.6S 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.6S 169.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.8S 170.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.0S 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.2S 177.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.5S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 166.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND A 111748Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KTS
FROM PGTW AND ABRF. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
AS A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION IS OBSCURING THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH A POINT SOURCE ALOFT
SUPPORTING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 15P
IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRANSITION FROM THE NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, TC 15P IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, IT
APPEARS THAT TC RENE WILL REMAIN ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AS THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
STEERING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD MORE SOUTHWESTWARD. ALSO IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS, TC RENE WILL START TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST AND LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE AUSTRALIAN SOLUTION WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM
ERRONEOUSLY EASTWARD INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z,
121500Z, 130300Z AND 131500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100212 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 13.1S 166.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 166.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.9S 167.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.9S 168.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.0S 169.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.2S 171.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.4S 174.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.6S 178.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 23.9S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 166.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 15P
HAS LOST MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTING OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND
ABRF WERE AT 3.0/3.5, WHICH REFLECT THE RECENT DECREASE IN CONVECTION
OBSERVED. THE LLCC REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT UNDER THE POORLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, AND HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRACKING UNDER THE WEAK
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL GUID-
ANCE SHOWS THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD CAUSING A STEADY INCREASE
TO THE TRACK SPEED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES/OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 72 AS TC 15P
TRACKS TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MID-LATITUDES WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW INITIALLY
THROUGH TAU 72, HOWEVER AS TC 15P TRACKS FURTHER SOUTHWARD, THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE VWS TO INCREASE, LEADING TO A STEADY WEAK-
ENING THROUGH TAU 120. IN ADDITION, THE SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE HELPING TO WEAKEN TC 15P BEYOND TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100212 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 167.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 167.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.5S 168.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.6S 169.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.7S 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.8S 172.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.4S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.8S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 27.6S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 167.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BEEN
RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FOR THE
LAST SIX HOURS, WITH BANDING CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED
AROUND THE LLCC. THE LLCC STILL REMAINS HIDDEN BY THE LARGE CONVEC-
TIVE MASS OVER THE AREA, HOWEVER, BY TRACKING FEATURES OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS, IT APPEARS TC 15P HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTH-
WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST. INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 60 KNOTS
BASED ON THE MARGINAL IMPROVEMENTS OBSERVED IN THE CONVECTION AND
ORGANIZATION. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LESS FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS START TO WEAKEN RENE. THE MAJOR
STEERING INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN THE STR THROUGH TAU 120, HOWEVER,
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS TC 15P TAKING A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK
BEYOND TAU 72 THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z,
130900Z AND 131500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100212 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 168.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 168.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.2S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.3S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.5S 173.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.2S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.3S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 26.4S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 30.4S 176.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 169.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST
OF PAGO-PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW AS CONVECTION REMAINED DEEP
NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 121636Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A
WELL-DEFINED CURVED HIGH-REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURE ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INTERPOLATED BETWEEN DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, NFFN, AND ABRF RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T4.0.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15P IS JUST TO THE WEST OF A POINT
SOURCE IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 AS VWS INCREASES. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MAY DEFLECT THE
SYSTEM TO A MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE
IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST EXCEPT TOWARDS THE
EXTENDED HOURS WHERE UKMET ATTEMPTS TO STEER THE VORTEX MORE EASTWARD
OF THE PACK IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SYSTEM LOCKING ON TO THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WHILE GFS IS ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAKER SYSTEM. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
CONSENSUS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z,
131500Z AND 132100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100213 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 14.4S 169.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 169.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.0S 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.8S 172.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.5S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.4S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.9S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 27.0S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 30.8S 177.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 169.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM EAST
OF PAGO-PAGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS CONVECTION DEEPENED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
A 122101Z METOPA MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A CURVED HIGH-REFLECTIVITY
SIGNATURE NEAR THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INTERPOLATED
BETWEEN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, NFFN, AND ABRF RANGING FROM
T4.0 TO T4.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15P IS JUST TO THE
WEST OF A POINT SOURCE IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTH-
WEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 120 HOURS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 AS VWS INCREASES.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MAY DEFLECT THE SYSTEM TO A MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST
EXCEPT TOWARDS THE EXTENDED HOURS WHERE UKMET STEERS THE VORTEX MORE
EASTWARD OF THE PACK IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WHILE GFS AND GFDN ARE ON A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER SYSTEM. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN LINE
WITH CONSENSUS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z,
132100Z AND 140300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100213 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 169.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 169.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.4S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.3S 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.9S 173.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.9S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.7S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 26.5S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.1S 176.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 169.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO-PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON A 130317Z TRMM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
SHOWING A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, THE 13/00Z POSITION
WAS SHIFTED 53 NM EAST-NORTHEAST. SUBSEQUENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
(130444Z SSMI, 130513Z SSMIS, 130612Z SSMIS) SUPPORT THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS ASSESSMENT, ALONG
WITH RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY, INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
CONSOLIDATED AND SLOWED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
TRACK AND TRACK PHILOSOPHY HAVE NOT CHANGED, TRACK SPEEDS THROUGH
TAU 48 HAVE BEEN DECREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE 13/00Z REPOSITIONING
AND CURRENT MOTION. ADDITIONALLY, THE TRACK WAS SHIFTED ABOUT 25 NM
CLOSER TO PAGO-PAGO. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.0 TO 5.O FROM ABRF, NFFN, PGTW, AND
PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD OVERALL
OUTFLOW. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FAVORABLE SST AND OHC CONDITIONS WITH IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM WHICH IS EAST OF THE MAIN
ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 60 NM SPREAD IN THE MODELS AT TAU 12
CENTERED OVER PAGO-PAGO. AFTER TAU 12, THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BUT DIVERGE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING (COOLER SST AND HIGH VWS) AND DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING WESTERN STR. NEAR TAU 120 THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TURNING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100213 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 14.7S 169.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 169.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.6S 171.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.1S 172.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.0S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.9S 174.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.0S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 26.3S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 30.1S 176.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 170.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO-PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TC 15P HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH INCREASED CONVECTION AND TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A 131228Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATING TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND PHFO. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IN A
REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
FAVORABLE SST AND OHC CONDITIONS WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM WHICH IS EAST OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE. IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING (COOLER SST AND HIGH VWS) AND DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH
OF A DEVELOPING WESTERN STR. NEAR TAU 120 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TURNING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100213 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 170.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 170.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.1S 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.7S 173.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.5S 175.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.4S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.3S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 28.0S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 31.8S 176.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 170.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO-PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TC 15P HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEPENED CONVECTION AND
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 13180OZ 1-KM RESOLUTION
VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWING OVERSHOOTING TOPS OVER THE LLCC. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 100 KNOTS FROM PGTW.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IN A
REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TC RENE IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
FAVORABLE SST AND OHC CONDITIONS WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING (COOLER SST AND HIGH VWS) AND DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH
OF A DEVELOPING WESTERN STR. NEAR TAU 120 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TURNING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TOWARDS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100214 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 172.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 172.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.9S 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.7S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.5S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 24.3S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 27.1S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.9S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 172.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO-PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
DECREASED CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A 140459Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH INDICATES A WEAKENING MICROWAVE EYE WITH EYEWALL EROSION
IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 15P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH
AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DUE TO AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 36, TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A SHARPER DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS CONVERGENCE ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE WEST, HIGH VWS (50-70 KNOTS), AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 24
DEGREES C). BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100214 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 174.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 174.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.9S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.7S 177.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.4S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.6S 177.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 30.7S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 174.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST
OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
EVEN AS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRICAL DUE TO ITS EXPOSURE
TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 141538Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTING A SEMI-CIRCLE HIGH-REFLECTIVITY PATTERN AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T5.0 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 15P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A SHARPER DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS CONVERGENCE ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO THE WEST, HIGH VWS (50-70 KNOTS), AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 24
DEGREES C). BY TAU 72, TC RENE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN SOLID AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND
152100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100215 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 20.6S 174.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 174.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.3S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.8S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.4S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 27.3S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 175.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
150557Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC
WITH EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
THE HOSTILE EFFECTS OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 15P IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS
MAINTAINED GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE LOWER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND RAPIDLY
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SST (LESS THAN 24
DEGREES C), HIGH VWS (50-70 KNOTS), AND UNFAVORABLE CONVERGENCE
ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. NEAR TAU 48,
TC RENE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
152100Z AND 160900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100215 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 22.7S 177.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 177.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 24.1S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.6S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 27.6S 176.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 177.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TC 15P HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC THAN TWELVE HOURS AGO DUE TO
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE WEST IS ALSO MORPHING THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND IS LIMITING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION.
ACCORDING TO A 151841Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE, THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, PHFO, AND ABRF, RANGING FROM 55 TO 77 KNOTS, DUE TO
THE MODERATE TO AGGRESSIVE DEPLETION OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS RENE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE WITH DECLINING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND INCREASING VWS.
BY TAU 36, TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER WATER. THE FORECAST POSITIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100216 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 24.7S 179.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 179.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 26.0S 177.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 27.4S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 29.3S 174.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 179.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THOUGH DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO AND ABRF INDICATE THE SYSTEM MAY ONLY BE
35 KNOTS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED THE PRINCIPLE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WIND DOWN SLOWER THAN THE CONVECTION
DISSIPATES. TC RENE IS NOW TRACKING OVER UNFAVORABLY COOL WATERS
WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
TC 15P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
APPROACHES THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, TC RENE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 160600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100216 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 25.9S 178.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 178.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 27.4S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 29.4S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 177.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO REMAINING CENTRAL CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE FALLEN TO A 2.0/3.0,
SUGGESTING A SYSTEM AS WEAK AS 30 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES DUE TO THE
EXPOSED NATURE OF THE LLCC AND THE LACK OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE
EXPOSED LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHILE DISSIPATING BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 16
FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_rene_jtwc_advisories.htm
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