Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone TOMAS : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2009-2010 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone TOMAS Track Map and Data |
WTPS22 PGTW 20100310 22:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1S 172.8W TO 12.4S 176.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 101800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 173.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 172.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 173.4W, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE SAMOAN ISLANDS GENERALLY RANGES FROM 1006 TO 1007 MB WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 24-HOUR PRESSURE TRENDS. THE DISTURBANCE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE MARGINAL CONDITIONS ALOFT. A TROUGH THAT HAD BUILT INTO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LESS THAN 12 HOURS AGO IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSING CLOUD GROWTH IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, A DIFFLUENT SOURCE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 112230Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20100311 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102221ZMAR10// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 11.0S 175.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 175.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 11.1S 176.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 11.7S 177.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 12.6S 178.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 13.8S 179.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 17.0S 180.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 21.3S 178.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 28.5S 173.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 175.6W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 110655Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BAND OF 30-KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE THAT IS STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS A POINT-SOURCE ALOFT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW THOUGH IT HAS ALSO SUPPRESSED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, PHFO AND NFFN. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 19P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. BY TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO RE-CURVE AFTER TAU 72. BY TAU 120, TC 19P SHOULD START TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST, TC 19P WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS DUE TO VERY GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE JETSTREAM. AFTER THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS, IT WILL START TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 102230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20100312 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 10.6S 177.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 177.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 11.0S 178.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 11.5S 178.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 12.3S 179.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 13.4S 179.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 16.1S 179.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 20.2S 179.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 25.5S 176.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 177.4W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BENEATH BUDDING CENTRAL CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED IN NEARLY ALL QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION, THOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL LIMITED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, WHICH BOTH INDICATE A 35 KNOT SYSTEM. NFFN IS ASSESSING THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 40 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TRACK WILL BEND TOWARDS FIJI AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS EQUATORWARD AND WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. BEYOND FIJI THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE WITH THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE MID- LATITUDES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR 30C AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT THIS INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES/OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLOWED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO THE ADDITION OF THE ECMWF TRACKER TO THE CONSENSUS (WHICH IS NOW THE SLOWEST MEMBER AVAILABLE) AND A SLOWER GFS RUN. EGRR REMAINS MUCH FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODEL PACKING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED TO REFLECT THE CONSENSUS. BECAUSE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS BEEN DELAYED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z AND 130300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20100312 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 11.4S 177.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 177.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 12.0S 177.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 12.9S 178.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 13.9S 179.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.1S 179.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.3S 179.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 20.3S 179.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 25.1S 176.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 177.2W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120716Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING AS WELL AS CONTINUED SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DIRECTLY ALOFT OF TC 19P, HOWEVER, AN ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ACCORDINGLY, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED BY 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND PHFO. TC TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES. AROUND TAU 72, TOMAS SHOULD ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AS A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE AND ENABLES A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. AT THE SAME TIME, TOMAS SHOULD ALSO REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDES INCREASES. BEYOND TAU 72, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS OHC VALUES FALL OFF AND UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE NOGAPS, GFDN AND UKMO MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST BEFORE THE SYSTEM RE-CURVES. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PUSHING QUICKLY EASTWARD, ENABLING THE RIDGE TO TEMPORARILY BUILD BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE A SECOND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PULLS THE SYSTEM INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. THE FORECAST COMPENSATES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY BY KEEPING THE SYSTEM SLOW AS IT APPROACHES AND ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20100313 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 11.7S 178.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 178.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 12.9S 179.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 13.9S 179.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.2S 179.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 16.6S 179.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 19.3S 179.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 21.4S 179.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 24.6S 177.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 178.4W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE THAT IS ENHANCING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED IN SATELLITE ANIMATION WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND PHFO. TC TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES. AFTER TAU 48, TOMAS SHOULD ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AS A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE AND ENABLES A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDES INCREASES. BEYOND TAU 72, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS OHC VALUES DECREASE AND WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE NOGAPS, GFDN AND UKMO MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST BEFORE THE SYSTEM RE-CURVES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20100313 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 12.4S 178.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 178.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 13.3S 179.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.2S 179.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.2S 179.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.2S 179.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 18.4S 179.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 21.3S 179.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 24.8S 176.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 179.0W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND A 130703Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INTENSITY HAS NOT INCREASED AS EXPECTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW, ABRF, AND CPHC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 19P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), BENEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 19P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THAT IS WEAKENING DUE TO A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW TOMAS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 72 AND THEN BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE AND VWS WILL INCREASE AS TOMAS BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO, HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. THE GFS MODEL IS AN OUTLIER WITH A SHARPER TURN AND A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TRACK SPEED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHICH INDICATES A TRACK OVER VANUA LEVU, FIJI WITH SPEEDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS AT THE EXTENDED TAUS TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20100314 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 179.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 179.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.6S 179.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.5S 179.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.3S 179.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.4S 179.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 20.0S 179.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 23.1S 178.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 27.8S 173.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 179.5W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 19P HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE THAT IS ENHANCING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 19P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THAT IS WEAKENING DUE TO A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW TOMAS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 48 AND THEN BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE AND VWS WILL INCREASE AS TOMAS BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO, HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. THE GFS MODEL IS AN OUTLIER WITH A SHARPER TURN AND A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TRACK SPEED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHICH INDICATES A TRACK OVER VANUA LEVU, FIJI. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20100314 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 179.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 179.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.6S 179.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.7S 179.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 18.2S 179.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 20.0S 179.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 24.3S 176.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 28.1S 170.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 33.3S 161.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 179.4W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THIS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND PHFO DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 100 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TOMAS IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AT THAT TIME, TC 19P WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE STR, INTENSITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH LOW VWS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). AFTER TAU 48, TC 19P WILL ENCOUNTER HIGHER VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL MID- LATITUDE TROUGH AND DECREASING OHC, WHICH WILL CAUSE INTENSITIES TO DECREASE. BY TAU 96, TOMAS WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THEN BY TAU 120 WILL TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20100315 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 179.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 179.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.7S 179.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 18.2S 179.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 20.0S 179.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 22.6S 178.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 28.2S 171.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 179.3W. ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20100315 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 179.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 179.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 18.2S 179.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 20.0S 179.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 23.0S 178.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 26 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 26.6S 174.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 33.6S 164.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 179.7W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A 10 NM EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, PHFO, KNES, AND ABRF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TOMAS IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDE (STR) IN AN AREA OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>27 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 19P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AFTER TAU 24 WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 48 AND FULLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72 AS TOMAS INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. INTENSITIES WILL WEAKEN AS TC 19P APPROACHES THE WESTERLIES WITH INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING OHC. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20100316 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 179.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 179.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 20.5S 179.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 23.3S 178.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 27.2S 174.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 31 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 31.4S 169.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 38 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 41.4S 155.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 179.4W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A 20-NM RAGGED EYE. TC TOMAS IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND MAY BE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD AND STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 36 THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20100316 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 179.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 179.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 21.9S 178.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 25.2S 176.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 30 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 29.6S 171.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 39 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 34.6S 164.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 179.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TOMAS HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN PREPARATION FOR ENTRANCE INTO THE MID- LATITUDES. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISTORTED AND ALIGNED NORTH-TO-SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED, ASYMMETRIC AND CLOUD-FILLED AS WELL. ACCORDINGLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN WEAKENED TO REFLECT A DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ELEVATE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DRAMATICALLY FALL NEAR 25S, OR TAU 24, ALLOWING FOR RAPID DECAY PRIOR TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET). ET WILL BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT UPSTREAM TROUGH. ET WITH WILL BE COMPLETE NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20100316 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 23.0S 177.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 177.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 27.2S 174.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 36 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 32.2S 168.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 177.0W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161637Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW TC TOMAS HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HAS RE-ESTABLISHED A PARTIAL EYEWALL THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO HAVE COME UP TO 115 KNOTS. TC TOMAS HAS INTENSIFIED DUE TO AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST CAUSED BY A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC TOMAS IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ACCELERATING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENCOUNTERS HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE JETSTREAM, TRACKS OVER UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STARTS TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20100317 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 27.0S 174.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 27 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 174.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 32.5S 168.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 28.4S 173.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TOMAS HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS ACCELERATING POLEWARD. CONVECTION IS BECOMING BIASED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A JET RUNNING ALONG 30S. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW SUSTAINABLE LEVELS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE PLUMMETED TO A 3.5/4.5 (55-77 KNOTS) FROM A 5.0/6.0 (90-115 KNOTS) APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS AGO. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 23 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_tomas_jtwc_advisories.htm
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