WTXS21 PGTW 20101025 23:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 9.6S 86.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 252251Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 86.4E.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S 86.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 835
NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS EASING AND CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING.
A 251943Z AMSR-E 36GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING ORGANIZING
AND EMCOMPASSING ALL BUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. THE
LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS THE LLCC DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRIVEN WESTWARD BY A BUILDING
LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AFTER TAU 24. A 251523Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWED NUMEROUS 30 KNOT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE CENTER. SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
262300Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101026 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/252251Z OCT 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z --- NEAR 10.9S 86.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 86.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 12.3S 85.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 13.1S 84.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 13.8S 83.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 14.4S 81.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 15.2S 77.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 15.5S 73.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z --- 15.0S 69.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 86.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FIRST SYSTEM OF THE 2011 SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS
RELAXED OVER THE SYSTEM AND HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO BUILD
BACK OVER THE CENTER, ELEVATING DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE
TO A T2.5 OR 35 KNOTS. A 260407Z ASCAT PASS ALSO SUGGESTS THE LLCC
HAS STRENGTHENED TO 35 KNOTS. IN ADDITION, A 261112Z SSMI 37H
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DISTINCT LLCC. CURRENTLY THE CYCLONE IS VENTING TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH ALSO
APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR BOUTS OF ELEVATED VWS. LESS THAN SIX HOURS
AGO THE LLCC HAD BEEN FULLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS VWS GRADUALLY EASES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
DOWNSTREAM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THEN
TRANSFER TO ANOTHER STEERING RIDGE FURTHER TO THE WEST AS THE MID-
LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH PASSES AROUND TAU 48. VWS IS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE NEAR DAY 4 AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AND BEGIN TO TAPER NEAR 20S. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 252251Z OCT 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 252300)MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101027 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z --- NEAR 11.7S 85.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 85.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 12.7S 84.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 13.4S 83.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 14.0S 81.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 14.7S 79.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 15.3S 75.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z --- 14.9S 71.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 14.2S 66.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 85.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 830 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND CONTINUED VENTING TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS CURRENTLY LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. TC
01S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN NEAR TAU 36 DUE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR IS FORECAST
TO REBUILD TO THE WEST AND TC 01S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
ALONG 15S. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT WILL ULTIMATELY BE LIMITED BY DECREASED SST
SOUTH OF 12S AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY TAUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR WHICH
DRIVES THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD INTO THE RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING SOME SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING
OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101027 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z --- NEAR 12.2S 85.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 85.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 13.2S 84.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 14.0S 82.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 14.8S 80.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 15.4S 78.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 16.0S 74.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 15.5S 70.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 14.5S 66.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 85.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 825 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TRACK WILL FLATTEN TO THE WEST ONCE A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES DOWNSTREAM AND THE STEERING RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND FMEE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A 35 KNOT SYSTEM. LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE HINDERED INTENSIFICATION DESPITE DUAL
OUTFLOW MECHANISMS ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL
SOUTH OF 15S AND WILL ULTIMATELY MODERATE INTENSIFICATION, ALONG
WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101027 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z --- NEAR 12.2S 85.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 85.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 13.2S 84.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 14.0S 82.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 14.8S 80.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 15.4S 78.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 16.0S 74.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 15.5S 70.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 14.5S 66.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 85.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 825 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TRACK WILL FLATTEN TO THE WEST ONCE A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES DOWNSTREAM AND THE STEERING RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND FMEE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A 35 KNOT SYSTEM. LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE HINDERED INTENSIFICATION DESPITE DUAL
OUTFLOW MECHANISMS ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL
SOUTH OF 15S AND WILL ULTIMATELY MODERATE INTENSIFICATION, ALONG
WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101027 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 83.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 83.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 13.5S 82.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 14.4S 80.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 15.1S 78.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 15.5S 76.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 15.3S 72.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z --- 14.4S 68.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 83.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES AN OVERALL WEAKENING IN THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 01S. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE HAVE INDICATED A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND CURRENTLY SUPPORT A 25 TO
35 KNOT SYSTEM. A 271621Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AND 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR) IMPROVES
TO THE SOUTH. THE TRACK WILL FLATTEN TO THE WEST ONCE A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES DOWNSTREAM ALLOWING THE STEERING RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF 15S WILL ULTIMATELY
MODERATE INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AND LEAD TO
DISSIPATION OF TC 01S AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 96.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20101028 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 81.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 81.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 13.7S 80.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 81.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS
GREATLY DECREASED AND SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST, EXPOSING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT REMAINS FAIRLY DEFINED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY TEN DEGREES TO THE NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH, AND DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN).  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 13 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_201101_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]