WTXS21 PGTW 20110210 22:30z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.0S 108.4E TO 20.6S 101.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 101800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.1S 107.9E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0S
106.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1S 107.9E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. MODERATELY SHEARED DEEP
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED DOWNWIND OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
EASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NORTH. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT IMAGE (101448Z)
INDICATES THE LLCC HAS STRENGTHENED WHEN COMPARED WITH EARLIER
IMAGES. HOWEVER, THE LLCC IS STILL SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND WINDS
AT THE CORE ARE GENERALLY LIGHTER THAN THOSE NEARING GALE FORCE
ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY. SEA SUFACE TEMPERATUES COOL DRAMATICALLY
BEYOND 20S LATITUDE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 112230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110211 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//102221Z FEB 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 103.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 103.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 21.3S 100.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 21.7S 98.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 21.9S 96.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 22.1S 94.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 22.5S 90.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 22.9S 86.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 102.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 111059Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE SSMIS
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND APRF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), WHICH HAS RELATIVELY DECREASED WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE EAST IS CAUSING INCREASED VWS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM MAINTAINS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE VWS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
102230Z FEB 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
102230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(BINGIZA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110212 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z --- NEAR 20.9S 100.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 100.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 21.1S 98.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 21.4S 95.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 21.5S 93.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 21.5S 91.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 99.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OF THE CLOUD
TOPS AND CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). AN 112215Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC
AND LITTLE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED MULT-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DRIER SOUTHEASTERLIES BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, APRF, AND KNES. TC 14S IS BEING STEERED STEADILY TO THE WEST BY A
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO TRACK WESTWARD, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND RESTRICTED OUTFLOW
WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD CRITERIA FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN BASIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_201114_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]