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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone BIANCA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2010-2011 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone BIANCA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20110124 12:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5S 126.5E TO 18.1S 120.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AND RADAR DATA AT 241200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 126.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S
126.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 126.1E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA DEPICT A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
AUSTRALIA. AT 24/06Z, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM TRUSCOTT SHOWED A
DECREASE IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (SLP) OF ALMOST 4 MB IN THE LAST 24
HOURS AND A MINIMUM SLP OF 999 MB WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. MORE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS REVEAL INCREASING PRESSURE NEAR TRUSCOTT (1002
MB) AND DECREASING PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR DOONGAN (999 MB),
SUGGESTING THE LLCC IS DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN A REGION OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND OBSERVED PRESSURE
FALLS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
251230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110125 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241221JAN2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.2S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.0S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.7S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.1S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.4S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 27.9S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 31.2S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 121.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFF THE
COASTLINE INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN OFF BROOME. THE SAME ANIMATION
SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A SURFACE OBSERVATION OF 30 KTS/996
MB JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A POINT SOURCE AND TO THE NORTH
OF A RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED WEST-EAST ALONG 23S LATITUDE. TC 10S IS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. IT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES TOWARDS THE RIDGE
AXIS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, WHICH UNREALISTICALLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM
INLAND INTO THE RIDGE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 241221Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110126 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.9S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.1S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.3S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 24.0S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 29.2S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 33.5S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 119.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BIANCA). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH RESULTING
IN A CLOSER CPA TO LEARMONTH (36 NM NORTH AT 27/07Z); THE TIMING
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNING. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND
A WELL DEFINED CENTER. A 260109Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A LOW-LEVEL SYMMETRIC RING SIGNATURE
TYPICAL OF RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEMS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS AS WELL AS ON
26/00-01Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BEDOUT ISLAND, LOCATED 60 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER, INDICATE SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 39-47
KNOTS WITH 995 MB SLP. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL RE-CURVE SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF
A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY
TRACKS THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD INTO THE STR AND RAPIDLY WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM OVER LAND. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS (NOGAPS, GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, WBAR AND GFDN) DUE TO THE
POOR GFDN TRACK WHICH IS WELL EAST AND OUTSIDE THE AIDS ENVELOPE.
BASED ON THE HIGH SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES, AND EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 36, TC 10S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT 30 KNOT
PER DAY RATE WITH A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTER HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TC 10S
WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72 AND COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110126 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 118.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.5S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.7S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.2S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 25.4S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 30.3S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 34.4S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 117.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BIANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AS
RADIAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, DEPICTING A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SURROUNDED BY HIGHLY
REFLECTIVE CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 50 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING TOWARDS A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 10S IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS TRACK AND FURTHER
INTENSIFY UP TO TAU 36 BEFORE IT BEGINS TO RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AT THAT POINT,
HIGHER VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE SYSTEM AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET).
CONCURRENTLY, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. TC BIANCA WILL COMPLETE ET BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GFDN ERRONEOUSLY REVERSING TRACK AT TAU 48 AND
CONSEQUENTLY SKEWING THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND
270900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110126 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 19.5S 116.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 116.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.5S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.9S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.7S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 26.0S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 32.6S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 116.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BIANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AS RADIAL OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY FROM PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, DEPICTING A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SURROUNDED BY HIGHLY REFLECTIVE
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 50 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING TOWARDS A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 10S IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS TRACK AND FURTHER
INTENSIFY UP TO TAU 36 BEFORE IT BEGINS TO RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AT THAT POINT,
HIGHER VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE SYSTEM AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET).
ADDITIONALLY, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. TC BIANCA WILL COMPLETE ET BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN ERRONEOUSLY REVERSING TRACK AT TAU 36 AND
CONSEQUENTLY SKEWING THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 261200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110126 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 19.4S 115.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 115.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.7S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.2S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.2S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 26.6S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 33.9S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 115.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BIANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RADAR FROM DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA AND
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A TIGHTLY WRAPPED, WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 261806Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS AN EYE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION, WHICH WAS BASED ON THE RADAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND APRF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER
AUSTRALIA. AROUND TAU 36, AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO THEN RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST. TC BIANCA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER
IMPROVED OUFTLOW AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW 26
DEGREES CELSIUS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110127 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 19.8S 115.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 115.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.8S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.8S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.2S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.9S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 35.1S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 114.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BIANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RADAR FROM DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA AND
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A TIGHTLY WRAPPED,
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
BASED ON THE RADAR WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND APRF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES BOTH FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA.
AROUND TAU 36, AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. TC BIANCA
IS EXPECTED TO THEN RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. TC BIANCA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER IMPROVED OUFTLOW AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS. AROUND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110127 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 113.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 113.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.8S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.0S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 26.5S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 29.4S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 37.0S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 113.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BIANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM LEARMONTH DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 20 NM VISIBLE EYE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE VISIBLE EYE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77
KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 270205Z
ASCAT PASS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM LEARMONTH INDICATING WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 10S IS LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MODERATE (20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC BIANCA IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA. NEAR TAU 36, TC 10S IS
FORECAST TO SLOW AND BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC BIANCA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AND IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE ET PRIOR TO TAU 72. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU
36 AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING TO DROP OFF AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF NGPS AND GFDN WHICH INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK AFTER
TAU 72, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48,
BUT IS FASTER AT TAU 72 TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MODEL OUTLIERS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z AND 280900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110127 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 20.8S 113.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 113.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.4S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.5S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.4S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 30.5S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 34.2S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 112.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BIANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, A RADAR LOOP FROM LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND A
271102Z CORIOLIS 37H MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WITH A CONCENTRIC EYE-WALL AND MICROWAVE EYE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 55 TO 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH IMPROVED OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE. TC BIANCA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
BY 29/00Z AND WILL BE FULLY ABSORBED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
BY 20/12Z. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NGPS AND GFDN WHICH CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BASED ON
THESE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES, THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY
LEFT AND FASTER THEN MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND 281500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110127 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 22.2S 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 111.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.7S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.3S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 29.8S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 31.9S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 111.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BIANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A RADAR LOOP FROM LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA SHOW SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON
THE RADAR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED
ON PGTW, KNES, AND APRF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC
10S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD AND RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES BY TAU 48.
TC BIANCA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO
THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 12, IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE
TO LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. THE PREVIOUS
INTENSITY WAS RE-ANALYZED TO 75 KNOTS AND THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED WITHIN THE PAST 6 HOURS, THEREFORE, THE CURRENT FORECAST
INTENSITY IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH
CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BASED ON THESE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES, THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY LEFT AND FASTER THEN MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110128 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 23.8S 108.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 108.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 26.3S 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 29.1S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 30.9S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 32.5S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 108.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BIANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES TC 10S HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS AND HAS DEVELOPED A ROUND 9 NM EYE WITH A
CONCENTRIC EYE WALL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON A 28/0532Z PGTW EYE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS FROM APRF
AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC BIANCA IS LOCATED UNDER
THE RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AHEAD OF TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS, TC BIANCA SHOULD EXPERIENCE GRADUAL WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO
ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. AS AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STEERING RIDGE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD BY TAU 24,
AND BE COMPLETELY ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BEFORE
LANDFALL WITH SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND
NGPS WHICH DEPICT A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 48. THIS TRACK
SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH; THEREFORE
THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY INSIDE AND FASTER THEN MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110128 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 107.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 107.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 28.9S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 30.6S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 31.6S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 108.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BIANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
NORTHWEST OF PERTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY ERODING DEEP CONVECTION RESULTING FROM THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK OVER COOL SST (24-25C). TC 10S, HOWEVER, HAS
MAINTAINED A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST, WHICH IS OFF-
SETTING THE COOL SST AND ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A 20 NM EYE.
A 281747Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIAL EYEWALL OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE AND TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 75 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND APRF OF 77 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO RE-
CURVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SST (< 24C). THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL COMPLETE
ETT BETWEEN TAU 24-36. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANTS
OF TC 10S WILL STALL NEAR TAU 36 OR TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST
TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. REGARDLESS, TC 10S IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND
292100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110129 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 29.4S 108.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.4S 108.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 31.1S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 31.8S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 29.8S 109.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BIANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PERTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AND BECOME ELONGATED AS THE MAIN
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SAME
ANIMATION SHOWS EXCESSIVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 10S IS NOW ENTRENCHED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, EXPOSING THE SYSTEM TO
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO DECREASED TO BELOW
25C. TC BIANCA IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECAY, GIVEN THE HARSH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, AND BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 24. ITS
REMNANTS MAY STALL AND EVEN RECURVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THIS TIME
FRAME AS A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST ASSUMES STEERING. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INCREASINGLY SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. REGARDLESS, TC 10S
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO BELOW 30 KNOTS BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110129 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 31.1S 110.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.1S 110.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 32.3S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 31.4S 111.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BIANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
WEST OF PERTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY COMMENCED EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECAYING OVER
VERY COOL SST (< 22C) AND SHEARING SOUTHEAST OF THE DE-COUPLED
LLCC. TC 10S IS INTERACTING WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS AND A 291350Z ASCAT
IMAGE SUPPORTING 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-
EASTWARD AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_bianca_jtwc_advisories.htm
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