Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone BINGIZA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2010-2011 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone BINGIZA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20110209 14:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S 56.0E TO 15.5S 53.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.9S 55.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9S
55.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 55.1E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM NORTH
OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 091014Z AMSR-E 36H IMAGE INDICATES A
WELL-DEFINED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE WEST INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT. A 090558Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED NUMEROUS 25-30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE WITH WEAK, EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SUBSEQUENTLY, OVERALL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EAST QUADRANT. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED DUE TO A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS VIGOROUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 101430Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20110209 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091421Z FEB 11//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 13.6S 54.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 54.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.5S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.6S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 13.7S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 13.8S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.3S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.2S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.8S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 54.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. A 091612Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH SOME SUPPRESSION OF OUTFLOW IS
OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEVELOPED ON
THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 13S IS DRIFTING SLOWLY
WESTWARD UNDER WEAK STEERING FLOW. IT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER AND
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT. SATELLITE-DERIVED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 29 TO 31
DEGREES CELSIUS. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO
THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH SOME WEIGHTING TOWARDS THE NOGAPS AND GFDN SOLUTIONS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE HIGHER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
BECAUSE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID
STRENGTHENING. A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
MADAGASCAR BETWEEN TAU 60 AND TAU 84 WILL AGAIN STRENGTHEN POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF TC
13S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 091421Z FEB 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 091430).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20110210 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 13.6S 54.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 54.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.5S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 13.5S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 13.6S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.7S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.0S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.8S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.7S 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 54.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 100316Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
WEAKENED. TC 13S IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 48
TO 72 HOURS. A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO RE-
BUILD TO THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH TRACKS FARTHER EASTWARD. TC BINGIZA IS EXPECTED
TO THEN INCREASE IN SPEED AND TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TC 13S SHOULD INTENSIFY UNDER A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
NORTHWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. NOGAPS, GFDN, AND WBAR ERRONEOUSLY TRACK
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. THIS FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW INITIAL TRACK SPEED AND THEN THE LATER
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 003
WTXS31 PGTW 102100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.0S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.0S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.7S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.6S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.3S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.7S 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.3S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 53.7E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S
(BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHEAST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. BINGIZA REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO WEAKENED
MID-LAYER STEERING RIDGES IN A WEAK AND AMBIGUOUS STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED LITTLE OVER THE PAST DAY.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH PASSES DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER, ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH IS
POSITIONED TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND CREATE ANOTHER MEANS FOR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS HAS ALIGNED ATOP THE SYSTEM AND HAS HELPED TO RELAX
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE LOWER SHEAR CONVECTION IS SHALLOW
AND YIELDS A 3.0 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND FMEE.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IS POOR AND IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION TO ACCOUNT FOR DISPLACEMENT OF HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE WEST. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM
THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE TC WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FIRST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE CENTER
OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THIS
STRENGTHENED STEERING RIDGE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A PEAK INTENSITY EXPECTED
NEAR TAU 72. BY DAY 5 THE SYSTEM WILL BE NEARLY DISSIPATED OVER
MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20110211 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 14.2S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.4S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.5S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.6S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.8S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.5S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 20.2S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 53.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S
(BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS NOT INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST DAY AND
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED, BUT STILL WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND
FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM HAS CAUSED AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE. TC 13S REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS THE MID-LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH MOVES FARTHER EASTWARD, A STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
IN TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC BINGIZA WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED
AND GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST FILLS AND WIND SHEAR DECREASES.
ADDITIONALLY, IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE SOUTH SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 96, TC
13S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR AND DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THIS STRENGTHENED
STEERING RIDGE. THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS DECREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE HINDERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
EAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20110211 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 53.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 53.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.1S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.3S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.4S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.5S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.1S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.3S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.4S 46.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 53.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MEANDERED SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 111425Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE ENHANCED
DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 2.5 TO 3.0 FROM KNES, FMEE, AND PGTW.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TC 13S IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO RELAX, OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE, AND ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE.
BY TAU 72, TC BINGIZA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20110212 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 53.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 53.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.1S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.5S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.9S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.2S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.7S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 53.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A MAJOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER MADAGASCAR IS DEVELOPING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND
AIDING INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. A 120213Z 37GHZ CORIOLIS IMAGE
REVEALS EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEEDING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER AND A MICROWAVE EYE. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS A WEAK STEERING RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE
SOUTH. DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK TAKING 13S ONSHORE OF
NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR NEAR TAU 48. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY NEAR 80 KNOTS BEFORE TRACKING ASHORE. THE SYSTEM EXISTS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UNDER 15
KNOTS. TC 13S WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
MADAGASCAR BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE REMNANTS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE LONG RANGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 101800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z
AND 130900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20110212 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.8S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.0S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.3S 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.7S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.1S 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
420 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121716Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEEDING INTO A 28 NM CONCENTRIC
EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>28 DEGREES
CELSIUS) AND AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ASSOCIATED WITH A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, HAS ALLOWED FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 13S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK STEERING RIDGE BUILDING
TO THE SOUTH. TC BINGIZA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING IN A
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR NEAR TAU
36. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
MADAGASCAR, BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR REMNANTS TO RE-DEVELOP IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE LATER TAUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130900Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20110213 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 52.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 52.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.1S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.3S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.7S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.5S 46.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 52.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS ACCELERATED WESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 130239Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM
GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INNER EYE HAS
CONTRACTED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS FROM 25NM TO 15NM EYE WHILE AN
OUTER EYEWALL APPEARS TO BE FORMING WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT
MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. TC 13S IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE, WHICH HAS BEGUN TO BUILD AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FILLS AND SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM MADAGASCAR. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 24 AND DISSIPATE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN BETWEEN
TAU 36 AND 48. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE (NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMO, ECMWF
AND GFS) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST,
WHICH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 13S SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITY CLOSE TO 100 KNOTS UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL. THE BULK OF
THE DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE REMNANTS (WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT RE-DEVELOPMENT) OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BEFORE
RE-CURVING THE SYSTEM BACK SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND
140900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20110213 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 51.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 51.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.2S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.6S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.2S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.9S 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.5S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.5S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.7S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 51.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 131704Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 14 NM CONCENTRIC
EYE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE INFRARED EYE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
90 TO 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 13S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MADAGASCAR
IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY (<30 KNOTS). HOWEVER, BASED
ON THE FACT THAT TC BINGIZA REACHED A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THEN
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED AND DUE TO RECENT MODEL DEVELOPMENT, REMNANT
ENERGY FROM THE TC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
AND RE-DEVELOP WITHIN 72 HOURS. HIGHLY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(>30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE CHANNEL BEFORE TC 13S
RECURVES SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE (NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, EGRR,
AND ECMWF) IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z AND 142100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 15.9S 49.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 49.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.3S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.8S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.6S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.6S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.6S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 23.2S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 25.9S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 49.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 13S REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL AT 14/06Z AFTER
TRACKING ACROSS THE MASOALA PENINSULA AND SKIRTING ANTONGIL BAY.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
77 TO 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 13S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER LAND THROUGH TAU 36 WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 48 IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. AFTER TAU 48,
TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO REGENERATE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 96
DUE TO FAVORABLE SST >30 DEGREES CELSIUS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT VALUES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE (NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, UKMO,
WBAR AND ECMWF) IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AND ECMWF TRACKING
THE SYSTEM OVER WATER THROUGH TAU 120. NOGAPS, UKMO AND GFS TRACK
THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR DESPITE A DEVELOPING STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THE ECMWF APPEARS MORE REALISTIC,
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE OVER-WATER SOLUTIONS AND IS
POSITIONED WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20110214 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 47.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 47.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.4S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.0S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.2S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.9S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.5S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 24.5S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 47.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S
(BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANA-
NARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS LOST OVER 75 PERCENT OF ITS CONVECTION AS IT DRAGGED
ACROSS THE ISLAND'S MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION DEPICTING A CLEAR AREA OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 141652Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S IS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND DIVERGENCE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. IT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AS THE STR ADJUSTS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 13S WILL EMERGE OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY TAU 36 AND MOMENTARILY INTENSIFY, FUELED BY THE
WARM WATERS AND ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, BY TAU 72, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL STEER THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEASTWARD BACK INTO THE ISLAND. TC BINGIZA WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU
96, DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR'S RUGGED TERRAIN AND EXPOSURE
TO STRONG WESTERLY VWS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH ECMWF ON THE RIGHT OF
AND GFS ON THE LEFT OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. THE FORMER ANTICIPATES THE
STEERING STR TO REMAIN STRONG ALL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE
THE LATTER UNREALISTICALLY TRACKS THE VORTEX DIRECTLY INTO THE RIDGE.
THIS TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20110215 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 45.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 45.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.7S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.5S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.3S 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.9S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.9S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 24.5S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 45.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S
(BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANA-
NARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS STILL OVER LAND.
MORE RECENTLY A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FORM WEST
OF THE LLCC IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF LEE SIDE LOW GENESIS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 15/06Z OBSERVATION FROM
NEARBY MAJUNGA MAHAJANGA, MADAGASCAR (FMNM), WHERE WINDS ARE OUT OF
THE NORTH AT 17 KNOTS AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS APPROXIMATELY 997
MB. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK WEST INTO THE EASTERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER
TIME AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A MORE POLEWARD TRACK, WHICH WILL PARALLEL THE WESTERN COASTLINE.
THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSITY DURING THIS PERIOD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS MORE MODEST THAN SOME OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS, THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DISPARITY. BY TAU 72 THE
TC WILL TURN BACK INLAND AS THE STEERING RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE
EAST WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THE ARRIVAL
OF YET ANOTHER. DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR OVER LAND BEFORE PASSAGE BACK
OVER WATER. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20110215 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 44.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 44.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.9S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.6S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.1S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.8S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.6S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.5S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 44.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY CONFIRMS
TC 13S HAS MOVED INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND HAS STARTED TO
CONSOLIDATE. A 151511Z SSMIS SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
ORGANIZING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON FMEE AND PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEVELOPED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND A WEAKER POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
TURN SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS AND ALLOWS THE STORM TO TURN
POLEWARD. THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS AND ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL CAUSE TC 13S TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AGAIN AFTER TAU 48. ONCE
OVER THE RUGGED TRAIN OF SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, TC 13S WILL DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF AN OVER-WATER TRACK WITH A SUBSEQUENT TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS,
FAVORING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20110216 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 015
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 43.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 43.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.3S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.9S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.7S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.7S 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.1S 45.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 23.5S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 43.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS PARTLY OVER LAND. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS
REMAINED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION EXTENDING FAR WEST
INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MORE RECENTLY THIS CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED AND BECOME FRAGMENTED. THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS NEARLY
DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS A
REFLECTION OF THE POOR STATE OF CONVECTION AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A
151807Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWS 30 KNOTS ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE LLCC. BECAUSE THIS FORECAST BRINGS THE CYCLONE
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THE PEAK
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 55 KNOTS. MORE RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY EVEN SUGGESTS THAT THE LLCC MAY HAVE MOVED
COMPLETELY OVER LAND. NONETHELESS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ERODE OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LONGWAVE, DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM,
STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY, AND WILL FORCE THE TC BACK INLAND AROUND DAY
2 OF THE FORECAST. THE TC WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20110216 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 016
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 44.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 44.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.5S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.2S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.2S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.2S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 44.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 161617Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS FRAGMENTED AND CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY (35 KNOTS) IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THEN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE OF 30 KNOTS BASED ON
THE RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL BANDING STRUCTURE IN
MICROWAVE. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS (WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR) FOR DEVELOPMENT,
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE COAST, RESULTING IN LESS
TIME FOR THE SYSTEM TO RE-ORGANIZE AND RE-INTENSIFY. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH INDICATES A LOWER PEAK
INTENSITY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL, THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC
13S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WITHIN 24 HOURS WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR THE
SYSTEM TO TURN INLAND AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK; THEREFORE THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20110217 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 20.9S 43.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 43.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.4S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.9S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.6S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 43.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 170523Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO
45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. TC 13S IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
MADAGASCAR WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE AN ERRATIC,
NEAR-QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION THROUGH TAU 24 (NOGAPS, GFDN AND WBAR).
THIS UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO A SHALLOW, WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.
THEREFORE, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MAY REMAIN
OVER WATER UNTIL THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AS INDICATED IN THE
NOGAPS FIELDS, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAND.
REGARDLESS, TC 13S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO
LAND AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND
180900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20110217 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 21.2S 44.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 44.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.4S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 44.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TRACKED
INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY. AS TC BINGIZA CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND, MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171800Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_bingiza_jtwc_advisories.htm
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