Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone BUNE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2010-2011 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone BUNE Track Map and Data |
WTPS22 PGTW 20110323 09:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 20.7S 178.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 230832Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 178.0W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 177.5W,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 178.1W, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KTS FROM PGTW AT 23/0832Z. 23/0000Z
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BENEATH AN ANTICYCLONE,
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED EQUATORWARD AND
EASTWARD OUTFLOW. INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC IS EVIDENT ON A 23/0708Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. DUE TO INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240930Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110323 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCENT PEARL HARBOR HI/230921ZMAR2011//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 20.8S 179.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 179.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.0S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.1S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.5S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.9S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 24.2S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 179.5W.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 230921Z
MAR 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 230930).
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUING INTENSIFICATION
AND CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 231822Z 37GHZ SSMI IMAGE REVEALS ABUNDANT CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS
SUPPRESSED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
SHOWS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ENHANCING OUTFLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WHICH WILL ACT TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM
OVER THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, THE TROUGH IS ALSO CAUSING SOME
INHIBITION OF OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT
OVERALL 19P EXISTS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 19P
IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE
TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH
IS NOT EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE LLCC, WHICH WILL RESUME A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE TROUGH PASSES AFTER TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY,
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPER MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, CURRENTLY MOVING OVER BRISBANE, WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AFTER BY TAU 72.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110324 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 179.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 179.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.7S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.2S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.8S 179.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.3S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 24.0S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 26.1S 179.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 29.6S 176.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 179.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. A 240654Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS A CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A 240538Z SSMIS AS WELL AS THE 240654Z SSMIS
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND ABRF. TC 19P IS TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. NEAR TAU 72, TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO
TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS SUPPORT
THIS TRACK TO INCLUDE UKMO, GFS, GFDN, ECMWF AND WBAR, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE
SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN UNREALISTIC WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120 THAT
SOMEHOW STEERS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD DESPITE THE DEEP TROUGH DIGGING
TO THE SYSTEM'S SOUTH. THE UKMO AND GFDN MODELS HAVE INDICATED A
WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 BUT HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THIS FORECAST IS
POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE CLOSER TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS, WHICH APPEAR MORE REALISTIC. PEAK INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE FAVORABLE SST, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 72, TC 19P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. TC 19P IS EXPECTED
TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110324 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 179.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 179.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.2S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.8S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.2S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 23.5S 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 24.7S 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.3S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 31.6S 177.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 179.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241810Z 37GHZ SSMI IMAGE REVEALS
EXTENSIVE CURVED BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS
WELL AS A PERSISTENT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE CYCLONE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST
ARE SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, SOME
SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 19P IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TAU 72. TC 19P IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER. HOWEVER,
SLOW MOVEMENT OVER A SHALLOW LAYER OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 DEGREES CELSIUS) COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INDUCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM WILL CAP THE INTENSIFICATION OF TC 19P AFTER TAU.
AROUND TAU 72, TC 19P WILL TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD TURN, TC 19P WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER A COOLER
SEA SURFACE. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120, TC 19P WILL INTERACT WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION, BECOMING A STORM FORCE LOW NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND WITH
THE SUPPORT OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT FACTORS. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK, BUT
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LAG EXPECTED CONDITIONS. PEAK
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO
ANTICIPATED FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER, AND
THE RECENT TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110325 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 22.4S 179.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 179.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.9S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.4S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 23.9S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 24.8S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 27.4S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 30.7S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 35.1S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 179.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 19P HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS REMAINED FRAGMENTED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND
CONVERGENT FLOW. A 250554Z CORIOLIS IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING, PREDOMINANTLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 170W AND EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. BASED ON
THE CORIOLIS IMAGE, TC 19P HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWARD AND IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD
OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS TRACK. TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER. HOWEVER, SLOW MOVEMENT
OVER A SHALLOW LAYER OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SST (27 DEGREES
CELSIUS) COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INDUCED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CAP THE
INTENSIFICATION OF TC 19P AFTER TAU 24. AROUND TAU 72, TC 19P WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALL OF WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
TC 19P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN AS
A 45-55 KNOT EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252100Z AND 260900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110325 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 22.9S 179.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 179.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.4S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 23.9S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 25.0S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 26.5S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 30.4S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 34.8S 175.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 179.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 251757Z
SSMIS 37H GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE
SYSTEM DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TC 19P HAS SLOWLY TURNED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) THAT HAS BUILT IN TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS FROM A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. AROUND TAU 48, TC BUNE SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 72 IT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY UNTIL TAU 48, WHEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z AND 262100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110326 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 23.0S 179.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 179.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 23.6S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 24.7S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 26.4S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.0S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 32.1S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260600Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 179.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BASED ON A 27 NM RAGGED EYE APPEARING AT
26/0532Z IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 26/0629Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE VERIFIES THIS POSITION AS WELL. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON PGTW AND PHFO DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
THE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS AHEAD OF A
MUCH STRONGER TROUGH. TC 19P IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE STR AND RESULT IN THE SYSTEM
TRACKING MORE SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36,
TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
DECREASED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 72.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THIS FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270600Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110326 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 23.8S 179.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 179.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 25.0S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 26.3S 179.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.0S 178.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 30.1S 177.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 179.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A 261653Z SSMI 37 GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE, FROM WHICH THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65
TO 77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS LOCATED
BENEATH AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MAINTAINS GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. TC BUNE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION OVER WARM WATERS
AT APPROXIMATELY 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE
STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD. BY TAU
36, TC 19P SHOULD BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. TC BUNE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY BEFORE RECURVATURE AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110327 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 24.8S 178.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S 178.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 26.2S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 27.7S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 29.7S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 32.3S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 178.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WEAKENING 40 NM CONVECTIVE BANDING EYE. ADDITIONALLY, A 270523Z SSMI
37 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
EYE, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, PHFO, AND NFFN DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 60 TO 77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS LOCATED BENEATH AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN MOST QUADRANTS. HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE FROM AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED OUTFLOW ON
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. FURTHER EVIDENCE
OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH IS APPARENT AS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TC BUNE HAS BEGUN ERODING AND IS ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS,
TC 19P SHOULD BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48. TC BUNE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS
IT INTERACTS WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110327 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 179.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 179.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.5S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 30.9S 176.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 33.5S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 179.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A DEGRADATION OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
MICROWAVE EYE, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS. CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE, TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
BUNE SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER
WATERS (< 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 19P SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FULLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY
TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110328 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 28.5S 178.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5S 178.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 31.1S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 33.9S 175.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 28.5S 178.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
NORTHEAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A CENTRAL CORE
WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONCENTRATED ON THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PERIPHERY. TC 19P IS SLOWLY TAKING ON EXTRATROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS A 28/0507Z SSMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE
INDICATES DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DECREASING OUTFLOW
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHILE INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS APPARENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 28/0507Z
IMAGE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TC 19P AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THIS STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND NUDGE TC BUNES TRACK
SLIGHTLY POLEWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. TC BUNE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 24 AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFTER ET. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110328 21:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 011A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 011A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 31.0S 176.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.0S 176.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 33.8S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 31.7S 176.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTHEAST
OF NAPIER, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DISSIPATING CONVECTION. THE UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD SYSTEM IS BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
A 281624Z 37GHZ SSMI IMAGE, HOWEVER, REVEALS ABUNDANT CURVED BANDING
PERSISTS AROUND THE LLCC. A 280908Z 25KM ASCAT IMAGE ALSO REVEALED
AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF GREATER THAN 45 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE LLCC. 19P IS COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSISTION AND
WILL TRANSITION INTO A GALE FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 18 FEET.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: REMOVED 50 KT WIND RADII FROM 281800Z
ANALYSIS.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_bune_jtwc_advisories.htm
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