Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone CARLOS : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2010-2011 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone CARLOS Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20110215 02:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6S 113.8E TO 24.2S 108.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
150130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.9S
113.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0S
117.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
A 142135Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES OUTLINE A
WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT BROAD, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 20-25
KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AROUND THE OUTER RIM. NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING
ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND GFS ALL INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-25
KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS ID UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
160230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110215 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150721Z//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 000
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 130.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 130.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 12.0S 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.0S 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.2S 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.7S 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 13.8S 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.9S 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.5S 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 130.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM NORTHWEST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD OVER WATER AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RADAR
LOOP FROM DARWIN DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS AT DARWIN
OF 995 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15S IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
IS SLOWLY TRACKING UNDER A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AT THIS TIME, A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND REACH LAND
AROUND TAU 96. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WHILE OVER WARM WATER
AND DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH EGRR AND ECMWF LOOP THE
SYSTEM FARTHER EASTWARD IN THE INITIAL TAUS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 150721Z FEB 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 150730) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 151800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110216 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 130.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 130.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.9S 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.2S 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.7S 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.5S 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.5S 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.0S 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.9S 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 130.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM
SOUTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. AT APPROXIMATELY 06Z RADAR IMAGERY PLACED THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER LAND AND SOUTH OF DARWIN. WEST-
(SOUTHWEST) WINDS AT DARWIN CORROBORATE PLACEMENT OF THE LLCC TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE AT DARWIN, WHICH TRANSLATES TO APPROXIMATELY 35 KNOTS.
BECAUSE THE LLCC HAS DRIFTED BACK OVER LAND THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER INLAND. AS A RESULT THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BY 25 KNOTS. OBVIOUSLY IF THE LLCC DRIFTS BACK
OVER WATER THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED HIGHER.
THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
BEYOND 24 HOURS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE AN
INLAND TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN RIPE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IT IS PROBABLE CARLOS COULD INTENSIFY TO NEAR 45 OR 50
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY NEAR TAU 48, BEFORE MOVING DEEPER INLAND. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(BINGIZA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110216 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 12.8S 131.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 131.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.2S 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.9S 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.3S 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.7S 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.6S 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.8S 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.6S 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 131.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM SE
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. AT APPROXIMATELY 18Z, RADAR IMAGERY FROM DARWIN
INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WAS LOCATED OVER
LAND JUST SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
INTERPOLATION OF SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FROM DARWIN (999 MB) AND
CORRELATES TO APPROXIMATELY 35 KNOTS. DUE TO THE LLCC SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THE CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE AND FORECAST TRACK HAS ALSO SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE IN PEAK FORECAST INTENSITY AT TAU 48 WHEN
THE SYSTEM TRACKS BRIEFLY OVER WATER. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN BELOW
WARNING THRESHOLD CRITERIA AS IT REMAINS INLAND. THE NOSE OF A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE AS THE PARENT RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO REMAIN OVER LAND. FORECAST INTENSITY MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED (UP OR DOWN) IF THIS SYSTEM VEERS CLOSER TO WATER OR MOVES
FURTHER INLAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110217 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 13.7S 130.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 130.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 14.5S 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 15.0S 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.3S 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.7S 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 130.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
SOUTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. IMAGERY
DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND PERSISTING WELL NORTH
OF THE CENTER OVER WATER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MANGO FARM AT
17/06Z, APPROXIMATELY 10 NM WEST, INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20
KNOTS AND SLP NEAR 999MB. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE RADAR
IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE (NOGAPS, ECMWF, UKMO, WBAR, GFS AND
GFDN) IS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK OVER, OR JUST SOUTH OF, THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF BETWEEN TAU
12 AND 36, AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE EVENT THAT IT
REGENERATES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(BINGIZA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 20110220 14:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3S 125.3E TO 18.4S 118.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.5S 124.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) ARE
LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY 695 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
ESTIMATED TO BE OVER LAND BASED ON BROOME RADAR IMAGERY, BUT IT IS
POSITIONED TO MOVE OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS. A
LARGE AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE, BUT IS
SHEARING WESTWARD. CONSIDERING THE LLCC HAS MAINTAINED AN ESTIMATED
INTENSITY BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS OVER LAND FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS,
ONCE OVER WATER THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY INTENSIFY ABOVE 35 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD POSSIBLY MODERATE THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION ONCE OVER WATER. THE CYCLONE WILL PARALLEL THE
COASTLINE TOWARDS LEARMONTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211430Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110220 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 005//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200421Z//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 122.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 122.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.6S 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.9S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.9S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.8S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.6S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.2S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 30.0S 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 121.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A
RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM PGTW AND SYNOPTIC
PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS NEAR 996 MB INDICATE THAT TC 15S HAS
INTENSIFIED INTO A 35 KNOT CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH TC 15S HAS TRACKED
RAPIDLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, IT IS
LIKELY TO SLOW A BIT OVER THE UPCOMING SIX TO TWELVE HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP OVER WATER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF, SYNOPTIC WIND AND PRESSURE
OBSERVATIONS, AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME. TC 15S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTH PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, CARRYING THE
CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL TAU 72. THEREAFTER, THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. TC
15S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM RANGE AS
SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIMITS THE IMPACT
OF PASSAGE OVER A VERY WARM SEA SURFACE AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
ASIDE FROM THE GFDN, WHICH IS DEPICTING A NEARLY STRAIGHT WESTWARD
TRACK, THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST AND THE FORECAST TRACK LIES SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
200421Z FEB 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
200430). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(DIANNE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110221 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 121.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 121.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.7S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.0S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.2S 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.3S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.4S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.8S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 30.9S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 120.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON RECENT FIXES FROM PGTW AND
APRF AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM REPORTING STATIONS NEAR THE
AUSTRALIAN COAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM PGTW AND 3.0 FROM APRF.
FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS
THE CYCLONE REDEVELOPS OVER WATER. THIS SLOWDOWN IS EXPECTED TO BE
TEMPORARY AS THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH REMAINS STRONG. THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, CARRYING THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL TAU
72. THEREAFTER, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BY TAU 120. PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER AND STRONG WESTWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL FUEL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER, MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT
AND RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THE GFDN, NOGAPS, AND WBAR DEPICT
MORE OF A WESTWARD TRACK THAT THE UKMET, ECMWF, AND GFS MODELS. THE
UKMET, ECMWF, AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS PRESENT A BETTER
REPRESENTATION OF THE EXPECTED ORIENTATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE AND EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LATITUDE PATTERN, SO THE
TRACK FAVORS THIS MODEL GROUPING AND LIES VERY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND
FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND
220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110221 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 120.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.4S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.6S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.8S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.9S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.6S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 27.1S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 30.1S 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 119.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210622Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED
BANDING WEST WRAPPING INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT. RECENT RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A MORE DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHTER CONVECTIVE
BANDING, SUPPORTING THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES AND APRF. TC 15S HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS
AND IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 15S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
COAST OF AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 72, AND IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN
SOUTHWARD AS A SHORTWAVE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS JUST WEST
OF AUSTRALIA. MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER TAU 48 WITH NOGAPS
AND GFDN INDICATING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK, AND UKMET RE-CURVING
TC 15S SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD. THE 21/00Z ECMWF RUN IS NOW
INDICATING A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SHOWS A
SLOWER TRACK IN THE EXTENDED TAUS WITH THE SYSTEM TURNING
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 120. BASED ON THE DIFFERENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS, THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND THEN WILL WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER SST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110221 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 18.9S 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 119.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.0S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.0S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.8S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.5S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.4S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.7S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 31.3S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 118.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 211136Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE WEST QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. RADAR
IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS A BETTER ORGANIZED LLCC AND SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW, APRF AND KNES.
TC 15S IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
COAST OF AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 72. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS THROUGH TAU 48,
THEREFORE, THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRACK
SPEEDS AND A LATER CPA AT LEARMONTH. THIS IS BASED ON A WEAKER THAN
EXPECTED STEERING RIDGE DUE TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, MOVING INTO WESTERN AUSTRALIA. MODEL
GUIDANCE TO INCLUDE NOGAPS, GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A PERSISTENT
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA THROUGH AT LEAST TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 72, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH GFDN INDICATING A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK, AND UKMET RE-CURVING TC 15S SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD.
TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AT A SLOW RATE THROUGH TAU 48 DUE
TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT SHOULD REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 65-70 KNOTS, AND THEN WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR
TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110221 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 19.6S 118.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 118.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.7S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.6S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.5S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.3S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.4S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 28.7S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 33.8S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 117.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF,
SYNTOPTIC OBSERVATIONS, AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TC 15S
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE HAS TAKEN A
SLIGHT POLEWARD DIP IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE
STEERING RIDGE BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
BECAUSE OF THIS RECENT TRACK SHIFT, THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO
TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE
CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE UPCOMING 48 HOUR PERIOD AS
PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SOMEWHAT OFFSETS THE
FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER AND STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TOWARD A DEVELOPING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AFTER TAU 72 AND UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT OVER HOW MUCH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 15S WILL
MODIFY THE STEERING RIDGE IN THE DAYS AHEAD. THE CURRENT FORECAST
FAVORS A RELATIVELY CONTINUOUS STEERING FLOW PATTERN AND LIES
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN, BUT CLOSE TO, THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(DIANNE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110222 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 117.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 117.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.3S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.2S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.0S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.9S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.2S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 29.3S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 34.0S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 116.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND COMPOSITE RADAR DATA FROM BROOME AND
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT FIXES
FROM PGTW AND APRF, SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS, AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. TC 15S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE UPCOMING
24 HOUR PERIOD AS PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SOMEWHAT
NEGATES THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER AND
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TOWARD A
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AFTER TAU 72. BASED ON THE LATEST
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) UNTIL AFTER TAU 96. BECAUSE PASSAGE
OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT THE
CYCLONE AT THAT POINT IN THE FORECAST, DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE CYCLONE
COMPLETES ET. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT, WITH THE NOGAPS AND WBAR NOW STANDING ALONE AS
WESTERN OUTLIERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN,
BUT CLOSE TO, THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z
AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110222 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 20.8S 116.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 116.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.9S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.7S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.6S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.3S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.9S 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 28.0S 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 30.9S 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 116.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM PORT HEDLAND INDICATE THAT
TC 15S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY AND ITS ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH THE PRIMARY BANDING OVER WATER TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN OUTFLOW, PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
INDICATIVE OF WEAKENING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE FIXES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LEGENDRE ISLAND, 30NM
NNE OF THE CENTER, SHOWING 49G61 KNOTS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON NUMEROUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA. TC 15S
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS BUT SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
ONCE IT TRACKS WEST OF LAND. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60-65 KNOTS IS
FORECAST BETWEEN TAU 24-48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TOWARD A
DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AFTER TAU 72. BASED ON THE LATEST
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) UNTIL NEAR TAU 96. BECAUSE PASSAGE
OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT THE
CYCLONE AT THAT POINT IN THE FORECAST, DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE CYCLONE
COMPLETES ETT. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN,
BUT CLOSE TO, THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z
AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110222 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 21.3S 115.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 115.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.2S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.0S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.8S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.6S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.3S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 28.6S 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 31.6S 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 115.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 15S HAS
RECENTLY TRACKED BACK OVER WATER AND THE CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT
30NM SOUTH OF BARROW ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR IMAGERY FROM PORT HEDLAND INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS
CONSOLIDATED WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW INDICATIVE OF WEAKENING EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 221135Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK, SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED OVER
LAND. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY, SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE FIXES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE WIND RADII ARE SOUNDLY BASED ON RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MARDIE, ONSLOW AIRPORT AND BARROW ISLAND,
AND REFLECT A RELATIVELY SMALL CORE OF STRONG WINDS. TC 15S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND SHOULD PASS JUST NORTH OF LEARMONTH
NEAR 22/23Z. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BUT SHOULD EXPERIENCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS IT TRACKS WEST OF
LEARMONTH (MAY PRODUCE STRONGER NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AFTER
CPA). A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60-65 KNOTS IS FORECAST BETWEEN TAU 24-48.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STEERING RIDGE TOWARD A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AFTER
TAU 72. BASED ON THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, THE CYCLONE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) UNTIL NEAR TAU
96. BECAUSE PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL IMPACT THE CYCLONE AT THAT POINT IN THE FORECAST,
DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS COULD
OCCUR BEFORE THE CYCLONE COMPLETES ETT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z,
230900Z AND 231500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110222 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 114.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 114.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.6S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.5S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.5S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.6S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 27.9S 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 30.1S 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 32.3S 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 114.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM LEARMONTH SHOW IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
OBSERVATIONS FROM ONSLOW AIRPORT LOCATED 20 NM TO THE EAST ARE
INDICATING UP TO 49 KNOT NORTHERLY GUSTS AND A MINIMUM SURFACE LEVEL
PRESSURE OF 979 MB. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE RADAR LOOP
AND OBSERVATIONS FROM ONSLOW AIRPORT WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWER THAN THE PGTW AND APRF DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 65 KNOTS DUE TO THE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. TC 15S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND SHOULD PASS JUST NORTH OF LEARMONTH NEAR
23/00Z. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BUT SHOULD EXPERIENCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION AS IT TRACKS WEST OF LEARMONTH (MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AFTER CPA). AROUND
TAU 72, TC CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. DUE TO INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 AND BY TAU 96 BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). HOWEVER, TC 15S COULD DISSIPATE BELOW 35
KNOTS PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110223 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 22.1S 114.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 114.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.9S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.8S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.9S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.1S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 28.7S 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 30.8S 102.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 33.0S 102.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 113.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM LEARMONTH BOTH SHOW DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. OBSERVATIONS FROM
LEARMONTH INDICATE A MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE OF 980 MB WITH
EASTERLY SURFACE GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE RADAR LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS FROM LEARMONTH WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWER THAN THE PGTW AND APRF
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS DUE TO THE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. TC 15S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TC 15S SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO TURN POLEWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STEERING RIDGE. INITIALLY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
AFTER MOVING BACK OVER WARM WATER AND WITH INCREASED OUTFLOW INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24, TC CARLOS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO DECREASED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BELOW 35 KNOTS AROUND TAU 120, PRIOR TO COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE
THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z,
231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110223 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.9S 112.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 112.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.8S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.9S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.2S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.7S 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 30.6S 103.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 33.5S 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 112.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A RADAR LOOP FROM LEARMONTH INDICATE THAT TC 15S HAS MOVED BACK
OUT OVER WATER AND RE-INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES
(231121Z TRMM AND A 231123Z SSMIS) DEPICT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
RE-FORMING AND WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM
THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE RADAR SIGNATURE AND MICROWAVE EYE FEATURES IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 15S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND WILL
CONTINUE ALONG A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, AT
WHICH POINT A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL INCITE A POLEWARD
TURN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS ENHANCED BY THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE SYSTEM CROSSES 110
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE AS SSTS STEADILY DROP OFF AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES. TC 15S WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110224 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 24.0S 110.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 110.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.2S 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.6S 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 28.1S 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 29.7S 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 32.7S 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 109.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
ALTHOUGH OVERALL DEPTH HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND RADIAL OUTFLOW,
MORE RESTRAINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGES WITH CLEARLY-DEFINED CENTRAL FEATURES AND EDGE-OF-SWATH RADAR
LOOP FROM LEARMONTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 15S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO
THE SOUTHEAST NEAR PERTH. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
WEAK TO MODERATE, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECLINE. BY TAU 36,
TC CARLOS WILL MOVE MORE POLEWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY TAU 72, CARLOS WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36 BEFORE IT FANS OUT SLIGHTLY WITH GFS
AS THE LEFTMOST AND GFDN AS THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIERS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110224 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 24.8S 108.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S 108.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.4S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 28.0S 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 29.5S 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 30.9S 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 33.1S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 36.5S 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 25.2S 108.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO FORM A LARGE EYE FEATURE WITH A DEEP
RING OF CONVECTION AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
VERY LITTLE BANDING. ALSO EVIDENT IS REDUCED OUTFLOW FROM THE SYSTEM
WITH ONLY WEAK OUTFLOW SEEN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
LOOK COMPLETELY ANNULAR AND HAS RETAINED SOME WEAK BANDING TO THE
NORTHWEST. A 241203Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS A DEEP RING OF CONVECTION OPEN
ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LLCC AROUND A LARGE, WELL DEFINED EYE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (15-20KTS), AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM. THE LAST 24
HOURS HAS SEEN THE SYSTEM INTENSIFY AS IT MOVED AWAY FROM LAND AND
CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
AT TAU 72 AND MOVE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. VWS IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, BUT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL DECREASE INTO HOSTILE TERRITORY. THIS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 AND STARTS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING OF A PASSING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS
THE CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AFTER
TAU 72. THE FORECASTED INTENSITY HAS BEEN CHANGED FROM THE LAST
WARNING TO DECREASE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIED FASTER THAN EXPECTED, AND ITS ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DESPITE THE
UPCOMING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z AND 251500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110225 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 25.6S 107.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 107.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.1S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 29.0S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 30.8S 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 32.3S 104.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 107.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS LAGGED AND PARTIALLY
DECOUPLED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SHALLOWED AND SHRUNK. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MULTISPECTRAL ANIMATION AND THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. TC 15S HAS SLOWED DOWN AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK ON A MORE
POLEWARD DIRECTION WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) DECREASE. BY TAU 36, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, AND IN ADDITION TO THE LOW SST'S, TC CARLOS
WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110225 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 27.9S 105.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S 105.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 29.5S 104.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 31.2S 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 32.8S 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 28.3S 105.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION WANING WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS BUT
REMAINING FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. A 250949Z SSMI PASS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM ONLY HAS A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA, AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
HAS TRACKED DEEP INTO UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AT A RAPID PACE. NEAR 32 DEGREES SOUTH, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE GREATLY AND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME
DECOUPLED. THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE PICKED UP IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
RAPIDLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, AFTER WHICH MANY OF THE TRACKERS
START TO MOVE ERRATICALLY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTH WEST, A COMMON
INDICATOR OF DECOUPLING. THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE, AND ENDS ONCE THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
DECOUPLED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110226 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 29.2S 104.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2S 104.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 31.0S 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 29.6S 104.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
WEST OF PERTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(< 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 15S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING BELOW 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260000Z IS 20 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_carlos_jtwc_advisories.htm
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