Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DIANNE : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2010-2011 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone DIANNE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20110215 02:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6S 113.8E TO 24.2S 108.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 150130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 113.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 117.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 142135Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES OUTLINE A WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT BROAD, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 20-25 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AROUND THE OUTER RIM. NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND GFS ALL INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-25 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ID UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 160230Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20110216 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 19.1S 111.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 111.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 19.1S 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.2S 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.6S 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 20.5S 110.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 22.2S 110.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 25.5S 110.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 28.4S 110.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 111.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 152238Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, APRF, AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE FAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEAR TAU 36, A STEERING RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW TC 16S TO TRACK POLEWARD. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW INTO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AROUND TAU 96, LOWER SST'S AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN WEAKENING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPREAD, BUT GENERALLY TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. ECMWF IS THE WESTERLY OUTLIER AND GFS TRACKS THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 150221Z FEB 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 150230) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20110216 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 18.9S 111.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 111.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.0S 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.5S 111.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 20.3S 111.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 21.2S 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 23.2S 111.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 25.1S 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 27.4S 109.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 111.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE TC HAS BEEN NAMED DIANNE BY TCWC PERTH. DIANNE CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WHILE MODESTLY INTENSIFYING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND APRF, WHICH INDICATE A 35 TO 45 KNOT SYSTEM. THE POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WAS DETERMINED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF A 161111Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE TC WILL LIKELY MEANDER OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG STEERING MECHANISM. BEYOND 36 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD TOWARDS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH IS TRANSITING THROUGH THE MID-LATITUDES. ONCE THIS TROUGH PUSHES DOWNSTREAM OF THE CYCLONE NEAR DAY 4 OF THE FORECAST, THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRACK THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD. ALL THE WHILE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY GIVEN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL TAU 72. THEREAFTER DIANNE WILL WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND THE WATER COOLS. ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL, AND INITIALLY SLOW, POLEWARD TRACK. GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT DOES NOT SWING THE TRACK BACK TO THE WEST AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20110217 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 003 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 19.1S 111.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 111.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.6S 111.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 20.3S 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 21.1S 111.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 22.6S 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 25.1S 112.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 28.5S 113.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 34.7S 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 111.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DIANNE CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND APRF, WHICH INDICATE A 35 TO 45 KNOT SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION WAS DETERMINED FROM A 16/2246Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. DIANNE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWARD OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG STEERING MECHANISM. BEYOND 36 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD TOWARDS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH IS TRANSITING THROUGH THE MID-LATITUDES. ONCE THIS TROUGH PUSHES DOWNSTREAM OF THE CYCLONE, THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRACK THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN HIGH UNTIL TAU 72. THEREAFTER, DIANNE WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS VWS INCREASES AND SSTS RAPIDLY DROP-OFF BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL, AND INITIALLY SLOW, POLEWARD TRACK. AFTER TAU 48, MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION OFF THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20110217 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 19.0S 110.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 110.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 19.9S 110.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 20.5S 109.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 21.6S 109.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 22.9S 109.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 25.5S 109.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 28.8S 108.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 33.6S 110.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 110.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 171059Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTED A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AS WELL AS A 171217Z AMSU IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS. TC 16S IS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGES AND HAS, CONSEQUENTLY, TRACKED ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. OVERALL, TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK WITH THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS (UKMO, NOGAPS, ECMWF, GFDN, GFS, JGSM AND WBAR) IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOW SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36-48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE WESTERN STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE UKMO, WBAR AND JGSM SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU 48 BUT GENERALLY INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER COOLER SST IN THE EXTENDED TAUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72 AND SHOULD THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20110218 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 005 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 19.8S 110.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 110.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 20.5S 109.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 21.3S 109.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 22.3S 108.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 23.3S 108.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 24.9S 107.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 28.5S 105.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 35.4S 105.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 110.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 180006Z 37H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A MICROWAVE EYE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGES CAUSING SLOW MOVEMENT POLEWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY SLOW AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL HAVE PASSED , ALLOWING THE STEERING RIDGE TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD AND THE SYSTEM TO TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD. NEAR TAU 120, AN UPSTREAM MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD AGAIN. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER TAU 48, AS THE NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72 AND SHOULD THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BASED ON A MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS (ECMWF, EGRR, NGPS, GFDN, AND GFS) SHIFTING WESTWARD, BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20110218 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 21.0S 108.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 108.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 21.7S 108.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 22.3S 107.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 22.9S 106.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 23.5S 105.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 26.3S 103.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 30.3S 103.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 36.0S 105.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 108.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 181115Z CORIOLIS 37H IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF. TC 16S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TRACK SPEED IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THIS RIDGE WEAKENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN AFTER TAU 36 AND SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEPER MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 72. DUE TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND TRACK SPEEDS BETWEEN TAU 12-72. MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS COMPLEX PATTERN WITH INCREASING SPREAD AND SOLUTIONS VARYING FROM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IMPROVES AND IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO THE RELATIVELY STRAIGHT FORWARD TRACK FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP TROUGH. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE SST AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST. BY TAU 72- 96, TC 16S SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS WELL. DIANNE SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 96 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. THE SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AND WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20110219 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 21.5S 108.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 108.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 22.2S 107.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 22.8S 106.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 23.4S 105.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 24.3S 104.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 27.6S 102.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 32.5S 104.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 107.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 182112Z SSMI PASS CONFIRMS INCREASED ORGANIZING, SHOWING TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTION BANDING AND A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON RECENT POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T- NUMBER ESTIMATES OF 4.5 FROM PGTW AND APRF. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA. AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO THE SOUTH OF TC 16S TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, A SECOND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF TC 16S AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. BY TAU 72 ANOTHER MID- LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, INDUCING POLEWARD RECURVATURE. PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW TC 16S TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, PASSAGE OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATER AND RESTRICTION OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BECOME MORE RAPID AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COMMENCE BY TAU 72 AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ENTRAINS DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDLATITUDES, AND PASSES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE BY TAU 120. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD PRIOR TO BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20110219 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 21.5S 108.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 108.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 22.2S 107.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 22.8S 106.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 23.4S 105.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 24.3S 104.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 27.6S 102.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 32.5S 104.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 107.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 182112Z SSMI PASS CONFIRMS INCREASED ORGANIZATION, SHOWING TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTION BANDING AND A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON RECENT POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES OF 4.5 FROM PGTW AND APRF. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA. AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO THE SOUTH OF TC 16S TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, A SECOND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF TC 16S AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. BY TAU 72 ANOTHER MID- LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, INDUCING POLEWARD RECURVATURE. PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW TC 16S TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, PASSAGE OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATER AND RESTRICTION OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BECOME MORE RAPID AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COMMENCE BY TAU 72 AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ENTRAINS DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDLATITUDES, AND PASSES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE BY TAU 120. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD PRIOR TO BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20110219 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 22.7S 107.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 107.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 23.7S 107.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 24.7S 105.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 25.7S 104.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 27.0S 103.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 30.8S 103.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 35.7S 104.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 107.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A 20 NM EYE, BUT DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT VANISHED NEAR THE CENTER. LIKELY THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH IS TOO VIGOROUS. THE TC IS FAST-APPROACHING COOLER WATERS, AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS ALREADY VERY LOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CONDITIONS. IT IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ONCE THE TROUGH PUSHES DOWNSTREAM OF THE TC IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD BACK SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, PROMOTING A MORE WEST OF SOUTH TRACK UNTIL ANOTHER TROUGH PASSES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO TEMPORARILY RELAX. THIS NEXT TROUGH WILL INCITE POLEWARD ACCELERATION AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 72. THIS TRANSITION WILL COMPLETE NEAR TAU 96. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY DUE TO HEIGHTENED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SECOND TROUGH AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20110220 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 23.7S 107.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 107.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 24.7S 106.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 25.9S 104.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 27.4S 103.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 29.6S 103.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 33.4S 104.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 107.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AND DRY AIR STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WHILE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS ENHANCED AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY TRACKING OVER COOLER SSTS AND LOW OHC WHICH HAS PROMOTED THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING TREND. THESE FACTORS ALL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY FROM THE 19/12Z WARNING. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. AFTER TAU 36, A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO RE-CURVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SSTS AND IS NOW FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20110220 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 24.6S 106.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 106.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 26.0S 104.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 28.0S 103.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 30.6S 103.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 33.5S 104.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 201500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9S 105.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DIANNE WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. DIANNE'S EYE IS QUICKLY FILLING AND ENLARGING AS SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS WARM. IN FACT, VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS. NONETHELESS THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE IS AT LEAST 65 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ELEVATE ALONG TRACK AHEAD OF A TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20110221 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 25.4S 104.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 104.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 27.2S 102.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 29.4S 102.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 31.9S 103.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 103.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF AND A 202039Z TRMM IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.0/4.5 FROM APRF AND 3.5/4.5 FROM PGTW. TC 17S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 36. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20110221 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 26.6S 102.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 102.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 28.5S 102.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 30.4S 102.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 102.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211147Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING, ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AND THE LATEST FIXES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS FROM KNES, PGTW AND ABRF. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER COOL SST WHILE DISSIPATING BY TAU 24. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS33 PGTW 20110222 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 28.5S 102.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.5S 102.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 30.4S 102.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 29.0S 102.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME THREE REPORTING AGENCIES. PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE CAUSED TC 16S TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS IT TRACKED POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_dianne_jtwc_advisories.htm
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