Tropical Cyclones
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WTXS21 PGTW 20110414 21:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1S 126.9E TO 12.5S 123.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 141800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 126.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 126.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM W OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA DEPICT CURVED LOW LEVEL INFLOW WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 14/1733Z TRMM 37H MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATES CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OBSERVATIONS FROM TROUGHTON ISLAND, JUST SOUTH OF THE LLCC, INDICATE 1006.9 MB MSLP WITH MAX WINDS AT 23 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 29 KNOTS (15/0500 WST). MSLP HAS SHOWN A 2 MB PRESSURE DROP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE LLCC REMAINS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 28-32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC AND AN INCREASE IN OBSERVED WINDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 152130Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20110415 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTY-ONE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTY-ONE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 13.1S 126.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 126.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 12.8S 125.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 12.3S 124.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 11.9S 123.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 11.6S 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 11.3S 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 11.4S 116.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 11.7S 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 126.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (TWENTY-ONE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A 14/2208Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS SPIRAL BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND ADRM DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. OBSERVATIONS FROM TROUGHTON ISLAND, JUST SOUTH OF THE LLCC, INDICATE 1008.8 MB MSLP WITH MAX WINDS AT 28 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 36 KNOTS (15/00Z). MSLP AT TROUGHTON HAS SHOWN A 1.3 MB PRESSURE DROP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE LLCC REMAINS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASED POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS WITHIN 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH SST) BEFORE ENCOUNTERING A DRY, HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WEST OF 120E. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM INLAND INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS WITHIN THE AIDS ENVELOPE AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THEN CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MODEL ERROR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 142121Z APR 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20110415 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 12.3S 125.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 125.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 11.8S 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 11.6S 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 11.3S 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 11.2S 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 11.4S 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 11.8S 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 12.2S 112.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 125.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (ERROL) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL (< 200NM) LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151136Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH IMPROVEMENT IN THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALTHOUGH IR DOES NOT INDICATE THIS. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND REORIENTS, TC 21S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENCOUNTER DRY AIR AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AND WBAR AS THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTLIERS. ALSO, GFS BEGINS ERRONEOUSLY TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AROUND TAU 48. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20110416 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 11.6S 124.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 124.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 11.1S 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 10.7S 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 10.5S 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 10.7S 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 11.5S 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 12.3S 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 13.3S 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 124.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HAS DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINED ROBUST. A 152156Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE DEEPENED CONVECTION AND TIGHT WRAPPING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY OF T3.0 FROM APRF AND KNES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC 21S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND REORIENTS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 36. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT UP TO TAU 48 WHEN COLD CONTINENTAL DRY AIR ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. TC ERROL WILL REDUCE TO A 35-KT SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AND WBAR AS THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTLIERS AND ECMF AS THE NORTHERNMOST OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR GFDN AND WBAR'S INLIKELY TRACK INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20110416 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 11.5S 124.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 124.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 10.9S 123.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 10.6S 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 10.6S 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 10.9S 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 11.6S 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 12.1S 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 12.6S 109.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 124.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S, (ERROL), HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 01 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM HAS KEPT IT UNDER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TRACK IS ALSO KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER FAVORABLY WARM WATERS (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A 160127 ASCAT PASS COMBINED WITH AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, 65 KNOTS FROM ADRM, AND 45 KNOTS FROM KNES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ALTHOUGH SOME DRY AIR TO THE DISTANT SOUTHWEST IS BEGINNING TO SUPPRESS OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. EARLIER VISUAL IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A MARKED ABSENCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, AS DO TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS, WHICH SHOW A WIDE EXPANSE OF DRY AIR OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP STEADILY IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT, WHEREAS ANY MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH OF WEST SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING. DYNAMIC AIDS SHOW A WIDE DISPARITY IN TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST FAVORS ECMWF AND STAYS NORTH OF CONSENSUS, BETWEEN ECMWF AND CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PROVIDED BY A TRACK UNDER THE SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, SLOWED SOMEWHAT BY LAND INTERACTION WITH THE MARITIME CONTINENT AND THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR AND INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20110416 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 11.5S 124.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 124.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 11.1S 123.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 11.0S 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 11.1S 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 11.7S 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 12.7S 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 13.1S 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 13.2S 109.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 124.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S, (ERROL), HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC EXISTS UNDER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 160933Z 37GHZ WINDSAT PASS IN TANDEM WITH INFRARED ANIMATION VERIFIES THAT CONVECTION IS REGENERATING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS STILL RELATIVELY SPARSE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW A PRONOUNCED LACK OF MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH AUSTRALIAN BASIN, TO THE SOUTH OF TC 21S. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES SYSTEM OUTFLOW IS STILL SUPPRESSED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, BUT A WELL-DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL PERSISTS ON ITS SOUTHEASTERN FLANK. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, 55 KNOTS FROM ADRM, A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 56 KTS, AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS. DYNAMIC AIDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE DISPARITY IN TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST FAVORS ECMWF AND STAYS BETWEEN ECMWF AND CONSENSUS, TO THE NORTH OF CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS PROVIDED BY A TRACK UNDER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, DAMPENED SOMEWHAT BY LAND INTERACTION WITH THE LESSER SUNDA ISLANDS AND THE ANTICIPATED EFFECTS OF DRY AIR AND SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20110416 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 124.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 124.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 10.9S 123.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 11.0S 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 11.4S 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 12.1S 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 13.1S 116.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 13.7S 113.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 14.5S 109.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 124.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S, (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL (< 200 NM) LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THERE WAS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON THE IR AND AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC IN A 161733Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD ON THE HIGHER END OF THE PGTW, APRF, AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC ERROL IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ON THIS SIDE. DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 21S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC ERROL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. BASED ON THIS, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SPREAD BUT IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK EXCEPT FOR GFS, WHICH CURVES THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, GFDN AND WBAR PULL THE SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER AND TO THE NORTH OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE ERRORS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20110417 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 11.1S 124.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 124.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 11.0S 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 11.0S 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 11.2S 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 11.6S 120.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 12.3S 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 123.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S, (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE WRAP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS LOOSENED AND HAS BECOME MORE FRAGMENTED. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS OUTFLOW HAS REDUCED AS COOL DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ADVECTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN CIMSS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 162143Z MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO TURN ON A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST REORIENTS AND BUILDS. INSPITE THE FAVORABLE VWS, THE DRY AIR INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG ITS TRACK AND EVENTUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST WHICH IS INITIALLY TO THE SOUTH AND AHEAD OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR A DRASTIC NORTHWARD AND SLOW GFS TRACK. AFTER TAU 24, THIS TRACK IS MORE TO THE NORTH OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR AND GFDN THAT ARE UNREALISTICALLY TRACKING THE TC SOUTH INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20110417 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 10.1S 125.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S 125.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 10.1S 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 10.2S 123.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 10.3S 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 10.5S 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 10.7S 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 124.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S, (ERROL),LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. PRIOR TO ITS RECENT MOVEMENT, 21S HAD REVERSED COURSE AND TRACKED NORTHEAST FOR APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE COURSE CHANGE SHOWED THE TWO MAJOR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)CONVERGE AND PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL BURST OF CONVECTION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM AL TARI AIRPORT (WATT) DURING THE PROCESS REVEAL A SURGE OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATED. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 170633Z AND 170903Z INDICATE POOR ORGANIZATION AND A LACK OF BANDING IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD STRUCTURE BUT AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. THE RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHEAST ACTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM UNDER MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, DIRECTLY UNDER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING FIELD OF DEEP MOISTURE AROUND THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. ALSO IMPEDING INTENSITY ARE SOUTHEASTERLIES FLOWING OFF-SHORE OF AUSTRALIA, WHICH ARE PUMPING DRY AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY AND MID-LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM. AN UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA SHOWED A PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR 10KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION. UNTIL THE RECENT SURGE IN CONVECTION, THE DRY AIR WAS CLEARLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND A CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF 21S WILL ACT TO KEEP IT OVER WARM WATERS AND UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, BUT THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE COUNTERED BY THE WEAKENING INFLUENCES OF LAND INTERACTION WITH TIMOR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE MID-LEVELS. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC AIDS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DISPARITY THEM. THE FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE WESTWARD SOLUTION OF ECMWF, STAYING BETWEEN ECMWF AND CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20110418 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 10.6S 123.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 123.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 10.7S 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 10.8S 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 10.8S 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 123.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) TWENTY-ONE (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST OF SUMBA, INDONESIA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT WAS SUSTAINING THE TC IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS HAS DIMINISHED. ALSO, COLD DRY CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS NOW SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 18/0002Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A BROAD WARM NOTCH OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC ERROL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO DRY AIR INTRUSION AND PROLONGED VWS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFS TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE AND WBAR AND GFDN TO THE LEFT. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20110418 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 9.9S 123.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 123.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 10.2S 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 122.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S, (ERROL),LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF KUPANG, WEST TIMOR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE OVER-LAND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COUPLED WITH 15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE WEAKENED THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NEAREST WEATHER STATION (KUPANG, INDONESIA) SHOW LIGHT WINDS AND RISING PRESSURE. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS AND A PRONOUNCED TREND TOWARD DISORGANIZATION. AN 181008Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES COMPLETE DISINTEGRATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDING AND THE 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS ALMOST NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF 15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRIER AIR UPSTREAM, AND TOPOGRAPHICAL INTERFERENCE FROM THE LESSER SUNDAS WILL PREVENT 21S FROM RE-INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD ALONG 10 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 10 FEET.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_errol_jtwc_advisories.htm
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