Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone TASHA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2010-2011 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone TASHA Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20101224 16:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3S 147.4E TO 18.8S 143.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 29 TO 34 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 241530Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 147.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 149.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 147.5E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY AND A 241021Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ARLINGTON REEF, JUST WEST OF THE CENTER, AND A 241117Z ASCAT IMAGE SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 30-35 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 998 MB. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 29 TO 34 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 251600Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20101224 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (TASHA) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241551ZDEC2010// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (TASHA) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 146.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 146.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 18.7S 144.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 20.6S 143.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 145.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (TASHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AS WELL AS CAIRNS RADAR IMAGERY AND A 241533Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATE A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ARLINGTON REEF, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF THE 24/18Z POSITION, AND A 241117Z ASCAT IMAGE SUPPORT PEAK SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AS HIGH AS 37 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF 994 MB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE RADAR AND TRMM IMAGERY. TC 04P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL, AS A 35-45 KNOT SYSTEM, SOUTH OF CAIRNS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 241551Z DEC 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 241600). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20101225 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (TASHA) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (TASHA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 19.7S 144.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 144.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 21.7S 142.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 143.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (TASHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TASHA CAME ASHORE SOUTH OF CAIRNS AROUND 24/18Z. THEREAFTER THE TC HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE INTERIOR OF QUEENSLAND IN EXCESS OF 15 KNOTS. THE TC WILL DISSIPATE BELOW 35 KNOTS WITHIN 12 HOURS OVER LAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_tasha_jtwc_advisories.htm
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