Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone VANIA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2010-2011 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone VANIA Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20110111 02:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 205 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2S 171.3E TO 24.6S 166.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 100100Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 170.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 170.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 170.2E, APPROXIMATELY 125NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 102130Z ASCAT PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC SHOWS 30-KT UNFLAGGED WIND BARBS ALONG THE EASTERN RIM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A POINT SOURCE THAT IS ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND INTENSIFYING IT TO A MINIMUM 35-KT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996MB. DUE TO THE RAPID CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED BY 110200Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20110111 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 168.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 168.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.2S 168.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.6S 167.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.2S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 20.9S 165.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 22.9S 164.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 24.9S 163.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 27.8S 163.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 168.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NE OF NOUMEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, PHFO, NFFN, AND ABRF. AN 111003Z ASCAT PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC SHOWS 30-KT UNFLAGGED WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A POINT SOURCE THAT IS ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND INTENSIFYING IT TO A MINIMUM 60-KT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS 05P IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY TAU 96 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AND SSTS BEGIN TO DECREASE. THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH IS BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE AFTER TAU 36. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 110151Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20110112 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 19.1S 169.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 169.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.5S 169.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.0S 168.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 20.7S 167.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 21.6S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 24.1S 165.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 27.0S 166.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 29.5S 169.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 169.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NE OF NOUMEA, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE AND WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ALSO EVIDENT IN THE IMAGERY IS A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO, WITH INTENSITY BASED ON INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES, PGTW AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW IN ADDITION TO THE WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A CONFLICTING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ERRATICALLY, IF AT ALL. AFTER TAU 24 THE STR WILL START TO WEAKEN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DRIFT MORE SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE EVENTUALLY RECURVING AHEAD OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY, BUT THERE IS VARIANCE IN THE ULTIMATE EAST/WEST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, WITH GFDN BRINGING THE SYSTEM WEST OF NEW CALEDONIA, GFS AND EGRR BRINGING IT EAST, AND CONSENSUS, NOGAPS AND WBAR IN THE MIDDLE. THIS FORECAST CLOSELY APPROXIMATES THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z. ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20110112 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 19.6S 168.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 168.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.4S 168.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 21.3S 167.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 22.3S 167.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 23.5S 167.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 26.4S 167.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 30.4S 169.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 34.8S 171.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 168.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NE OF NOUMEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121717Z 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM KNES, PGTW, AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF TC 05P, WHILE OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BOTH OF THESE OUTFLOW ENHANCING FEATURES HAVE ENABLED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP MORE RAPIDLY THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TC 05P IS SLOWLY TRACKING IN A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN DIRECTION WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC VANIA IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE VERY EASTERN TIP OF NEW CALEDONIA IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY SPEED UP AND RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 72 AND WILL COMPLETE ET AS A STRONG STORM FORCE LOW BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, TO INCLUDE GFDN, WHICH HAS STEADILY SHIFTED TO THE EAST. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST AND FASTER THEN CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MODEL ERROR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20110113 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 20.2S 167.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 167.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 20.9S 167.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 21.7S 166.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 23.0S 166.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 24.7S 167.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 28.1S 167.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 31.2S 168.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 167.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 130659Z 37 GHZ AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF TC 05P, WITH LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SUPPRESSION OF OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM BUT GOOD OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, ABRF, PHFO, AND KNES. TC 05P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH IS INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING IN 27-29 DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS BUT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SST AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL ACT TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 05P WILL MOVE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR TAU 72 AND TRANSITION TO A HIGH- GALE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20110113 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 21.0S 167.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 167.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 21.8S 167.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 23.5S 167.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 25.0S 167.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 27.2S 167.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 31.6S 169.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 167.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131814Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO DUE TO THE OVERALL WEAKENING CONVECTIVE TREND OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT- WAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE EASTERN COAST OF NEW CALEDONIA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SST AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AND BECOME A GALE FORCE LOW BY TAU 72; HOWEVER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BEFORE COMPLETING ET. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20110114 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 22.0S 166.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S 166.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 23.1S 166.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 25.1S 165.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 27.2S 165.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 28.9S 165.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 32.8S 166.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 166.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) O5P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOUMEA INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS LOSING SOME ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEW CALEDONIA. A 140259Z AMSRE 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF SYSTEM CONVECTION IS NOW IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT THERE IS SOME SUBSIDENCE ACTING ON THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL ACT AS A STEERING INFLUENCE ONCE THE SYSTEM CROSSES 25 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND ABRF. TC 05P WILL MOVE INTO SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA, WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL26 TO 28 DEGREEES CELSIUS. THE EFFECTS OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE MILD INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM OVER THE SHORT TERM. AFTER TAU 24, THE EFFECTS OF THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT FACTOR IN THE DE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEASTW BETWEEN 25 AND 30 DEGREES LATITUDE. TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSTANT RATE OF MOVEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND CONSENSUS THEREAFTER. TC 05P WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL (ET) TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72; HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND INCREASED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR MAY ACT TO DISSIPATE THE STORM BEFORE IT COMPLETES ET TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z. ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20110114 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 22.8S 167.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 167.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 24.8S 167.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 26.7S 166.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 28.8S 166.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 30.8S 166.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 167.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) O5P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141354Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM NEW CALEDONIA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSRE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS WAS BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND AND A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 985MB FROM NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF TC 05P CAUSING HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT. TC 05P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ULTIMATELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AROUND TAU 36. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY ACT TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT COMPLETES ET TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20110115 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 26.3S 166.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 22 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 166.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 29.7S 165.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 165.9E. EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) O5P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER TROPICAL AND HAS SUBTROPICAL JET SUPPORT. IT IS RAPIDLY EXITING THE TROPICS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 17 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_vania_jtwc_advisories.htm
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