Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone VINCE : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2010-2011 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone VINCE Track Map and Data |
WTXS22 PGTW 20110112 08:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110751JAN2011// NAR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS OF 14.8S 107.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY- CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120532Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 107.6E. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 107.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 107.5E, APPROXIMATELY 575NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 120214Z AMSU PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST, BUT WITH SOME INDICATION OF CURVATURE. THE CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY BEING DRIVEN BY AN EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND BURST, AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS STILL TOO HIGH FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SUSTAINED CONVECTION TO FURTHER INTENSIFY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING IT TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UNDER THE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL REDUCE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BETWEEN TAU 0 AND 12. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 130800Z. ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20110112 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751JAN2011// NAR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 108.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 108.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.4S 110.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.9S 112.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.3S 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 17.1S 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 18.1S 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 18.6S 111.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.7S 106.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 108.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BUILDING TOWARDS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), BUT STILL SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST. A 121151Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH UNORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFFSET TO THE WEST, WITH SOME WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), BUT CURRENT MOTION BRINGS THE SYSTEM INTO A REGION OF LOWER VWS. TC 06S WAS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE APPROACH OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE STR AND NOW SYSTEM MOTION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG WESTERLIES NEAR THE EQUATOR. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48, FOLLOWING WHICH THE STR WILL BUILD BACK IN AND ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE AND STEER THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE WEST. DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD BE GREATLY IMPROVED. OUTFLOW, LOWER VWS, AND INCREASED OCEAN HEAT SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE THE REBUILDING OF THE STR INCREASES VWS AND REDUCES OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN BACK TO THE WEST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING TROUGH. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 120751Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20110113 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 108.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 108.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.9S 109.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.1S 111.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.5S 112.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 16.8S 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.4S 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.2S 112.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 18.9S 108.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 109.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT WHILE CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED IN THE EAST-WEST DIRECTION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WITH A 130031Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTING A CENTER WEST OF CURRENT AGENCY FIXES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 T0 45 KNOTS FROM APRF, PGTW, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND BURST EQUATORWARD OF THE CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUING TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 06S WILL TURN SHARPLY WESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS POLEWARD OF THE CYCLONE, BEHIND A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND GFS, WHICH HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY PULLED BACK ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. BECAUSE THE NOGAPS AND GFS ARE WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM AND DECREASING THE STEERING LEVEL MORE THAN EXPECTED, THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND SLOWER THEN MODEL CONSENSUS TO FAVOR THE ECMWF, GFDN, WBAR, AND EGRR MODEL GROUPING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20110113 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 110.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 110.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.2S 112.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.3S 113.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 16.2S 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.3S 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.9S 111.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.2S 108.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 19.5S 103.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 110.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION IS WANING AND BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. A 131025Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS SYSTEM CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35-45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND APRF. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 60, HOWEVER, THE STEERING INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND PUSHES NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS WIDE DISPARITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM'S TURN FROM EASTWARD TO WESTWARD, BUT GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SCENARIO. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY ALONG ITS EASTWARD TRACK AS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR REMAINS STEADY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20110114 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 112.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 112.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.2S 113.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 16.3S 114.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.4S 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.6S 113.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.4S 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 18.2S 108.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 19.6S 105.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 112.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 132250Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, APRF, AND KNES. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND LOOP BACK TO THE WEST BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC VINCE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE SST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE EAST, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISPARITY BETWEEN A POLEWARD OR EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE TURN. THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20110114 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 114.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 114.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 16.1S 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.0S 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.2S 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.6S 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.6S 108.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 17.8S 102.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 114.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 140618Z 37GHZ AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWS GOOD ORGANIZATION AND TIGHTLY CURVED CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS ENHANCED THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE TROUGH IS ACTING TO SUPPRESS OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN REGION. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 20-30 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. TC 06S IS BEING STEERED BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM. AS THIS OCCURS, TC 06S WILL REVERSE COURSE AND TRACK WESTWARD. 26-28 DEGREE SST ALONG TRACK WILL ACT TO SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM AT MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN IT WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER COOLER WATER. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TC EARLIER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SWITCH FROM AN EASTWARD TO A WESTWARD TRACK, AND ON THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20110115 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 114.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 114.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 15.9S 114.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.1S 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.4S 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.0S 109.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 18.4S 104.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 114.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED PARTIALLY UNDER THE INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION. THERE WAS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TURN WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTH, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS DECREASED. ADDITIONALLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, DUE TO PERSISTENT SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND MODERATE VWS, TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO ONLY GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AFTER TAU 12, VWS SHOULD INCREASE AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20110115 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 114.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 114.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.9S 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.5S 112.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.3S 110.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.8S 106.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 114.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE CLASSIFICATION. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF AN IMPRESSIVE YET UNORGANIZED EXPANSE OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LLCC HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN AVAILABLE INFRARED IMAGERY. NONETHELESS IT STILL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT EXPOSED, WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) EVIDENCED IN RECENT METSAT IMAGERY. A 150111Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS A WELL-DEFINED 30 TO 35 KNOT LLCC DESPITE HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GAIN SPEED AND TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH. IF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT EASE SOON IT APPEARS UNLIKELY VINCE WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN A 35 KNOT LLCC. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VWS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 20110116 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 113.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 113.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.3S 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 113.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHALLOWER AND HAS DECOUPLED FURTHER FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO 90 NM TO THE WEST. THIS IS EVIDENT ON A 152225 SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTING A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE 30-KT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC VINCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN VIEW OF THE REDUCED CENTRAL WIND SPEED AND UNFAVORABLE ALONG-TRACK VWS, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 10 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_vince_jtwc_advisories.htm
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