Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone WILMA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2010-2011 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTPS21 PGTW 20110121 17:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0S 175.3W TO 13.8S 171.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 174.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
175.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 174.9W, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
WEST OF PAGO PAGO. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION NOW YIELDS A DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 2.0 OR 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. THE SYSTEM
LACKS PRONOUNCED BANDING IN MORE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, BUT DOES
SHOW SIGNS OF TURNING IN A 210807Z SSMIS 91H IMAGE. SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE (SLP) FROM TAFITOALA, WESTERN SAMOA (91769) HAS DROPPED 2.2
MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AS OF 1324Z SLP WAS 1003.9 MB. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION WITH SUFFICIENT
VENTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AND RANGE FROM 28
TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 221700Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110122 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 000
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 174.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 174.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.4S 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 14.8S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.6S 171.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.9S 171.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.0S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 24.8S 178.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 29.0S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 173.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM WEST OF PAGO
PAGO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH WAS BASED ON A 220047Z
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, NFFN,
AND PHFO DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. OBSERVATIONS
FROM TAFITOALA, SAMOA ARE REPORTING A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE DECREASE OF
4 MB WITHIN 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL
THEN STRENGTHEN AND REORIENT IN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN SOUTWESTWARD. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY STEADILY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LOWER
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, TC 08P SHOULD BEGIN
WEAKENING AROUND TAU 72 AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN THE
TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER, THE MODELS DEPICT DIFFERENT TIMING OF
THE TURN. GFS DEPICTS A SLOWER TURN TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN
SAMOA TO PAGO PAGO, WHILE NOGAPS AND GFDN SHOW A FASTER TURN PRIOR
TO REACHING SAMOA. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 211700Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110122 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 12.8S 172.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 172.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.1S 171.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.0S 171.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.5S 171.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.9S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.9S 175.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 25.9S 177.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 31.6S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 172.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY (220649Z 37H TRMM AND 220755Z 91H SSMIS)
DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A MAJORITY OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGES, WHICH DEPICT A POSITION SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM KNES,
PGTW, AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW (>10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO RECURVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND BECOMES
THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK, TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER AMERICAN SAMOA WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AFTER TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ET) BY TAU 96. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ET BY TAU 120, BUT
MAY DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE PRIOR TO COMPLETING
ET AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST'S AND UNFAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES POLEWARD OF 25 DEGREES SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH DEPICTS A LATER
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TOWARD NEW
CALEDONIA. THIS WESTWARD TRACK DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE LATER TAUS,
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z AND 230900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110122 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 11.6S 171.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 171.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.0S 170.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.9S 171.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.8S 172.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.7S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.1S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 28.0S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 32.7S 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 171.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A 221731Z SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE. BASED ON THE IMPROVED MICROWAVE CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN 45 KNOT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, NFFN, AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 08P IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH
IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC WILMA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS AND
BECOMES THE MAJOR STEERING INFLUENCE. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER AMERICAN SAMOA WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AROUND TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS
THE STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ET BY TAU 120. TC 08P SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS OVER UNFAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND COULD POSSIBLY
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE COMPLETING ET.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GFS AND UKMO. GFS TRACKS THE SYSTEM FARTHER WESTWARD INTO A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH AND UKMO TURNS THE SYSTEM ABRUPTLY EASTWARD INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THESE SCENARIOS DO NOT SEEM LIKELY; THEREFORE,
THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110123 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 171.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 171.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.5S 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.0S 171.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.6S 172.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.7S 175.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 22.9S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 27.8S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 33.4S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 171.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
230608Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND ENHANCED NORTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF TC 08P, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH, IS
HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH HAS TEMPORARILY STALLED
INTENSIFICATION. TC 08P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TC WILMA IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS PAGO PAGO WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH
FILLS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND SST VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24 AND BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND UNFAVORABLE OHC VALUES WHICH DROP OFF NEAR 25
DEGREES SOUTH. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) AFTER TAU 72, BUT COULD DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE PRIOR TO COMPLETING ET DUE TO UNFAVORABLE OCEANIC
CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED IN THE
INITIAL TAUS, BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MOST RECENT MODEL TRACKERS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
SHIFT FURTHER WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, DEPICTING A
STRONGER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SHIFT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, FAVORING
A TRACK MORE TO THE WEST AND RECURVING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST
JUST NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND RATHER THEN NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 232100Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110123 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 14.1S 170.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 170.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.8S 171.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.5S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.1S 176.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.0S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 23.8S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 27.3S 177.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 32.8S 176.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 171.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231604Z
SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN TO
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG (30-35 KNOT) NORTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS. THE INITIAL POSITION
WAS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAPE
MATATULA, AMERICAN SAMOA OF 986 MB AND 40- TO 47-KNOT SURFACE WINDS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALTHOUGH
A TROUGH IS LIMITING CONVECTION ON SOUTHWESTERN SIDE AND PREVENTING
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL 231200Z OBSERVATIONS FROM PAGO PAGO
INDICATE EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. TC 08P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND ALLOW TC WILMA TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
FILLS AND DUE TO HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AROUND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWARD AS A TRANSITORY, UPPER LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. TC 08P SHOULD BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
WHICH DROP OFF NEAR 25 DEGREES SOUTH. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AFTER TAU 72, BUT COULD DISSIPATE AS
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE PRIOR TO COMPLETING ET DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INCONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN SOUTHWARD. NOGAPS AND GFS
MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE AND TRACK THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTHWESTWARD.
HOWEVER, JGSM AND EGRR RECURVE THE SYSTEM FASTER, WHICH IS UNLIKELY
BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110124 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 171.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 171.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.3S 172.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.0S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.3S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 22.6S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 24.8S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.3S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 32.8S 174.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 171.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
240555Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PERIPHERY. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
SIGNATURE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE PASS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO
65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS JUST WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CAUSE SUBSIDENCE AND HINDER WESTWARD OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR). AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD, TC 08P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH FILLS.
BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS SST AND OHC
VALUES BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY 25 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. TC 08P IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 72, BUT
COULD DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE COMPLETING
ET NEAR TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH TAU 48, BUT DEVIATES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN
TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TENDENCY HAS ALSO INDICATED A SHIFT WESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHIFT IN THE STR TO THE WEST, WHICH HAS DELAYED
THE TIMING OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THE SHIFT IN MODEL TRACKERS AND IS
WITHIN THE AIDS ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110124 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 172.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 172.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.7S 175.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.0S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.3S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 24.8S 175.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 28.6S 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 34.6S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 39.5S 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 173.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241550Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS A SMALL, COMPACT LLCC WITH A DIAMETER OF 120-180NM AND A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77 KNOTS AS WELL AS THE
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY WHERE A BROAD UPPER LOW IS POSITIONED; THIS UPPER LOW IS
HINDERING OUTFLOW TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BUT IS AIDING OUTFLOW TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. TC 08P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TC 08P SHOULD
BEGIN TO RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHILE BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE MODELS NOW SUPPORTING THE RE-CURVE
SCENARIO. THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF RE-
CURVATURE AND TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 72 WITH GFS AND NOGAPS SHOWING
A MORE GRADUAL TURN AND SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS. HOWEVER, THE MODELS
REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED FASTER THAN
THE CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 36 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND IS ALSO
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER SST. TC 08P SHOULD COMPLETE ETT
BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110125 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 177.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 177.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.5S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 25.3S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 26.9S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 28.8S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 32.8S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 39.1S 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 178.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250422Z
SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A 25-NM DIAMETER RAGGED EYE WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A UNIFIED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0 FROM
PHFO, KNES, AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TC 08P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVE SCENARIO WITH THE NOTED EXCEPTION OF GFS
SHOWING SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE.
TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT 95 KNOTS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER
ALONG-TRACK SST'S. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 72 AND
96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P
(ANTHONY) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110125 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 22.8S 178.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 178.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.9S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 25.0S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 26.4S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 29.1S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 34.6S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 39.3S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 177.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SMALL, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A DIAMETER OF 120-180 NM AND A
20 NM ROUND EYE. A 251837Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC, INTENSE
EYEWALL WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. TC 08P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TC 08P SHOULD
BEGIN TO RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHILE BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED EXCEPT FOR THE
EGRR (UKMO) TRACKER WHICH SHOWS A WESTWARD TRACK THEN DISSIPATION BY
TAU 72. THE 25/12Z UKMO MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE MODEL IS
POORLY INITIALIZING THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND ALSO APPEARS TO
ERRONEOUSLY INTERACT TC 08P WITH A LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
FIJI. THE UKMO SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY AND IS THE SOLE OUTLIER. THIS
FORECAST IS POSITIONED FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 36. TC
08P MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OR REMAIN STEADY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER SST. TC O8P SHOULD
COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96 NEAR NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 260900Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110126 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 176.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 176.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 24.3S 173.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 25.9S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 27.9S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 30.2S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 35.6S 175.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 175.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM
EAST OF OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL CYCLONE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE THAT HAS
CONTRACTED TO 10 NM IN DIAMETER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 260554Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM EXHIBITING SIGNS OF
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON UNIFIED DVORAK FIXES FROM KNES, PHFO, NFFN, AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION SHOWING EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 08P IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG ITS TRACK BUT SHOULD BEGIN SLOWING DOWN A BIT BEFORE
RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TAU 24, IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AT THAT POINT, HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM
AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET).
ADDITIONALLY, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HELP WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. TC WILMA WILL COMPLETE ET BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110127 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 25.3S 173.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 173.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 27.1S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 29.4S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 32.2S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 35.2S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 173.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL EYE (5 NM) AND A 262111Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION . THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 77 TO 115 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. TC 08P IS CURRENTLY
STEERING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AN
UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING
RIDGE AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 48, TC WILMA IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (BELOW 26
DEGREES CELSIUS) AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110127 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 27.2S 172.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 172.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 29.3S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 32.4S 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 36.1S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 27.7S 172.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 9TC) 08P (WILMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A 27/1132Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DECREASING DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
65 TO 77 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT WHILE TC 08P
IS STILL EXPERIENCING SOME ENHANCED OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. TC 08P IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND WILL
BEGIN TO RECURVE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TC WILMA IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) BY 28/06Z AND WILL COMPLETE ET
BY 29/00Z. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280300Z AND 281500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110128 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 30.0S 171.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.0S 171.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 33.5S 173.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 37.4S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 30.9S 172.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION WITHIN
THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 990 MB SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATION LOCATED 60NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 08P IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS) AND
LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (< 26 DEGREES CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN TRANSLATION SPEED ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY IN THE
INITIAL STAGE OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC WILMA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ROUNDING THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL,
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BECOME FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTENSITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 281500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110128 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 34.0S 174.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0S 174.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 38.3S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 35.1S 175.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTH OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 26
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
AND COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 08P IS LOCATED UNDER THE
LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITH STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MODERATE (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE SYSTEM WILL SUCCUMB TO INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT COMPLETES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OVER
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 12 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_wilma_jtwc_advisories.htm
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