Updated: 17 June 2020
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[Index] | Tropical Cyclone YASI : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2010-2011 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTPS21 PGTW 20110129 17:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3S 173.2E TO 15.4S 166.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 172.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
172.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 172.4E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 291408Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 291031Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTED
A SYMMETRIC, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, THE LLCC HAS STRENGTHENED AND BECOME WELL-DEFINED. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN
EXTENSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. OVERALL, THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED WITH CONTINUED GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF FIJI. NUMERICAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
301700Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110130 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291651Z JAN 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 13.2S 170.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 170.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 12.6S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 12.4S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 12.4S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.1S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.3S 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.0S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.3S 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 169.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS UNAVAILABLE, HOWEVER, A
291814Z CORIOLIS 36H IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTED THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND
DEPICTED MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. A 292139Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED 30-35 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE AS WELL AS THE CORRESPONDING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND PHFO. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
LOCATED UNDER AN ANTICYCLONE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC
11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 THEN TURN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LATER TAUS. THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL SHIFT EAST AND RE-
ORIENT AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT
IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THEREFORE THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK. THE ECMWF TRACKER IS UNAVAILABLE BUT THE 29/12Z MODEL FIELDS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST TRACK
IS BASED LARGELY ON THE CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND,
TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A 20-25 KNOT RATE PER DAY THROUGH
TAU 72 AND AT A SLOWER RATE UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 96. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO PEAK HIGHER THAN 110 KNOTS AND MAKE
LANDFALL AS A VERY STRONG, LARGE SYSTEM. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 291651Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 291700). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110130 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 13.2S 167.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 167.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 13.5S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.9S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.5S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.4S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.9S 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.3S 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.9S 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 166.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (YASI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1280 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND WRAP MORE TIGHTLY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AS RADIAL OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A 301011Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PHFO, NFFN, AND PGTW.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER AN ANTICYCLONE
WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 36 THEN TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS EAST WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST AFTER TAU
60. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 301200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110131 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 164.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 164.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.9S 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.6S 157.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.5S 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.6S 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.7S 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.9S 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 163.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM KNES AND
PGTW. TC 11P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL SHIFT EAST AND RE-
ORIENT AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 72. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120,
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
BASED LARGELY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 11P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, INCREASING FROM 35 TO 65 KNOTS, AND IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A 20-30 KNOT RATE PER DAY THROUGH
TAU 48, PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A 100+ KNOT, LARGE SYSTEM. TC 11P SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110131 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 13.4S 160.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 160.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.9S 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.9S 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.0S 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.2S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.3S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 159.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (YASI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 875 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, FUELED BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SOLID DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS
FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES INCLUDING KNES, PHFO, NFFN, AND PGTW. TC 11P
IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WEST- BECOMING SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IN VIEW OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TC YASI
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS BY TAU 36. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF CAIRNS AS A LARGE 100+ KNOT SYSTEM AFTER TAU
48 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110201 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 156.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 156.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.0S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.0S 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.2S 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.3S 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.3S 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.7S 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 155.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (YASI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS PERSISTED DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS FUELING IMPRESSIVE DEEP CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ABRF AND PGTW RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS.
FURTHERMORE A CLOUD-FILLED RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON VISIBLE
AND INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, OF WHICH THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD CAIRNS,
AUSTRALIA. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, AND TRACK CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110201 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 153.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 153.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.9S 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.1S 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.5S 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.7S 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.7S 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 152.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (YASI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A 10 NM EYE, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW AND ABRF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH, ALONG WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
HAS ALLOWED FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC
11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS. AROUND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF CAIRNS AND BEGIN
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS INLAND. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND TRACK CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110202 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.4S 149.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 149.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.7S 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.2S 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.9S 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.6S 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 149.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (YASI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE TC TRACKED OVER WILLIS ISLAND AT AROUND
2200Z WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS LOGGED IN EXCESS OF 70 KNOTS
GUSTING TO OVER 100 KNOTS. AN IMPRESSIVE EYEWALL HAD BEEN VISIBLE ON
THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR THAT HAS SINCE BECOME INOPERABLE. THE
CYCLONE WILL MOVE WITHIN RANGE OF THE CAIRNS RADAR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND WILL PASS BETWEEN HOLMES REEF AND FLINDERS REEF BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CAIRNS. THE TC SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS (OR POSSIBLY EVEN STRENGTHEN SOME) BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE.
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 115 TO 127
KNOTS. YASI WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE INTERIOR OF AUSTRALIA AFTER
COMING ASHORE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 38 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110202 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 17.5S 146.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 146.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.6S 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.9S 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.1S 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 146.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (YASI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A 30 NM EYE AND THE CAIRNS RADAR DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS. TC 11P HAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWED IN TRANSLATION SPEED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
SOUTH OF CAIRNS WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 42
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110203 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 19.3S 143.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 143.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.9S 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.0S 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 142.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (YASI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT DESPITE CROSSING THE GREAT DIVIDING RANGE, THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED CLEAR ORGANIZATION. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY, HOWEVER,
INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS AND A MARKED
DECREASE IN CONVECTION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM GEORGETOWN
AIRPORT, APPROXIMATELY 40 NM NORTH OF STORM TRACK, DECREASED TO
BELOW 35 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM PASSED. TC 11P IS CROSSING THE NORTHERN
END OF THE GREGORY RANGE AND WILL MOVE OVER FLATTER MARSHLANDS,
WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE AUSTRALIAN
INTERIOR. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON TRACK, SPEED,
AND INTENSITY. THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL
HARBOR, HI). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_yasi_jtwc_advisories.htm
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