Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ZAKA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2010-2011 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone ZAKA Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20110206 05:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.2S 173.3W TO 27.5S 177.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 060000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 174.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.6S 173.3W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 174.2W, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL- DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH, INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS STILL SOMEWHAT SHALLOW, A 060126Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE LLCC, HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE ANALYZED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, A 051600Z AMSU RADIAL HEIGHT CROSS SECTION HINTS AT A DEVELOPING WARM CORE WITH A SMALL WARM ANOMALY CENTERED AT AROUND 40K FEET. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTSS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.DUE TO THE SEVERAL FACTORS NOW INDICATING THE DISTURBANCE IS TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM CORE CYCLONE AND DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 070530Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20110206 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ZAKA) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060521Z FEB 11// AMPN/ REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ZAKA) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 25.4S 177.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 177.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 28.5S 179.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 32.0S 179.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 35.9S 179.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 177.8W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (ZAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR TC ZAKA. ORIGINALLY A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE ZAKA HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A TC WITHIN THE PAST 06 TO 12 HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE TC DEVELOPING A MORE CLASSIC TROPICAL SIGNATURE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 060900Z ASMSU RADIAL CROSS SECTION PRODUCED BY CIRA (RAMMB) QUANTITATIVELY SUPPORTS TROPICAL TRANSITION. GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, AND THE SYSTEM'S RECENT TRANSITION TO A WARM CORE TC, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY AMONG THE FOUR FIXING AGENCIES. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS FAVORS THE LOWER END OF THE DVORAK SPREAD BECAUSE OF PERSISTENCE AND THE LACK OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO ERODE IN ADVANCE OF A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LATITUDES. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS BEFORE RECURVING INTO THE WESTERLIES DUE TO A DROP IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AMONG THE MEMBERS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 060530Z FEB 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 060530). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20110207 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ZAKA) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ZAKA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 29.3S 179.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 22 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.3S 179.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 33.3S 180.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 37.2S 179.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 30.3S 179.5W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (ZAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTHEAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS BASED ON THE TREND IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. A 070208Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ON THAT SIDE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO ERODE IN ADVANCE OF A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LATITUDES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE THE NORTHWEST, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20110207 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ZAKA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ZAKA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 32.3S 179.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 32.3S 179.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 36.9S 178.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 33.5S 179.8W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (ZAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM NORTHEAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DISSIPATING OVER WATER. A 071639Z TRMM IMAGE REVEALS CORE CONVECTION HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS RAPIDLY BECOMING CLOUD-FREE. 12P IS NOW TURNING INTO THE MID-LATITUDES, WHERE IT WILL CONTINUING DECAYING UNDER THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 14 FEET.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_zaka_jtwc_advisories.htm
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