Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ZELIA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2010-2011 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone ZELIA Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20110113 10:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS OF 14.0S 149.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 149.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 150.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 149.7E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 130356Z AMSR-E 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL- DEFINED CENTER. RECENT WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE LLCC WHICH HAS RESULTED IN IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE-DERIVED SST RANGE FROM 30 TO 32 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE 24 HR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE AREA ARE APPROXIMATELY 03 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 141000Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20110114 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130951JAN2011// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 12.2S 150.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 150.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 12.7S 151.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 13.9S 153.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 15.7S 154.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.7S 157.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 24.0S 164.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 22 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 30.1S 171.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 36.2S 174.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 151.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (< 15 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MAKE AN EASTWARD TURN AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU 12 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72, BUT MAY INTENSIFY MORE SLOWLY IN THE EARLIER TAUS DUE TO SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 130951Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20110114 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 152.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 152.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.2S 153.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.1S 155.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 18.5S 158.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 23 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 21.7S 162.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 29.3S 169.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 35.3S 172.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 152.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM NORTH OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VIGOROUS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE WESTERN QUADRANT. A 140811Z 37GHZ WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWS A CLEAR MICROWAVE EYE WITH THICK AND WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS BY PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF, AS WELL AS THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RADIAL OUTFLOW DURING THE PAST 12 HRS. SSTS ARE 29-31 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (< 15 KNOTS). TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BEFORE BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20110115 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 14.6S 152.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 152.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 15.9S 154.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.9S 157.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 21.3S 160.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 24 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 25.1S 164.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 33.6S 168.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 152.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM NORTH OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL- DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 141941Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION WAS INTERPOLATED FROM THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS WAS HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND ABRF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS DUE TO THE GOOD MICROWAVE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE HIGH (APPROXIMATELY 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 07P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 36, LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. BY TAU 48, TC ZELIA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND BECOME FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20110115 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 152.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 152.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.2S 156.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 20.2S 159.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 24.4S 162.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 26 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 29.0S 165.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 38.2S 171.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 153.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM NORTH OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AFTER MAINTAINING 55 KNOTS FOR THE PAST DAY THE CYCLONE HAS NOW BEGUN TO INTENSIFY. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF. A 150753Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CLEAR CUT MICROWAVE EYE AND SHEDS FAIR TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE 12Z POSITION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN FAVORABLE WATERS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TRACK. THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF EX TC 05P IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR 30S AND COMPLETE TO THE WEST OF NEW ZEALAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20110116 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 156.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 25 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 156.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 20.9S 160.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 24.8S 164.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 29.1S 167.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 26 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 33.6S 170.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 157.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS STORM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY, AND THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, ABRF, AND KNES. A 160001Z MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINITIVE EYE, WHICH GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z POSITION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF 26-28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TRACK, AND THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR 30S AND BECOME COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL NORTHWEST OF NEW ZEALAND IN A REGION OF UNFAVORABLE (23-25C) SSTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20110116 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 160.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 24 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 160.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 24.6S 164.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 29.1S 167.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 33.9S 170.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 161.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ZELIA CONTINUES TO RACE DOWN THE MONSOON TROUGH IN A MODIFIED HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN AS A MIDGET CYCLONE. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED A 5.0 DVORAK EYE FIX FROM PGTW. THE EYE HAS MORE RECENTLY BEGUN TO FILL AND ENLARGE, WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF SHORT TERM WEAKENING AS THE CONVECTION CYCLES. AFTER TAU 12 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NO LONGER SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION AND THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS. BY TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL REST JUST SHY OF 30.0S AND BEGIN TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. ZELIA WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BEFORE REACHING NEW ZEALAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20110117 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 24.8S 164.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 32 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S 164.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 30.3S 168.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 35 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 36.4S 172.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 165.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 880 NM NORTHWEST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 31 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ZELIA HAS INCREASED IN SPEED AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK DOWN THE MONSOON TROUGH IN A MODIFIED HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN AS A MIDGET CYCLONE. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON A 4.0/4.5 DVORAK EMBEDDED CENTER FIX FROM PGTW. AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. AFTER TAU 12, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNFAVORABLE, AND ZELIA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 12, AND ZELIA WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BEFORE REACHING NEW ZEALAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20110117 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 29.9S 169.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 32 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.9S 169.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 35.9S 172.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 31.4S 170.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 32 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE ITS LATITUDE AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ZELIA MAINTAINS MOST OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ACCELERATES POLEWARD IN THE MOIST WAKE (VERIFIED BY CIMMS TPW) OF THE FORMER TC 05P. A 06Z CIRA AMSU RADIAL CROSS SECTION INDICATES A WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ALOFT, CONFIRMING THE SYSTEM IS STILL TROPICAL. BECAUSE OF WHICH ZELIA DOES NOT MEET THE JTWC CRITERIA FOR A FINAL WARNING AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS CONVECTION IS QUICKLY DEPLETING NEAR THE CENTER, AND AS A RESULT THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW HAS DROPPED TO A 3.0/4.0 OR 45 TO 65 KNOTS. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS THE AVERAGE OF THESE TWO VALUES. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL COMPLETE THIS TRANSITION OFFSHORE OF NEW ZEALAND WITHIN 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 24 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 20110117 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) FINAL WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 33.3S 169.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 32 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 33.3S 169.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 39.6S 171.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 34.9S 170.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTHWEST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 32 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171727Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOW A FULLY EXPOSED BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 07P IS LOCATED UNDER THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD, DEEP TROUGH WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. TC 07P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER COLD SST (20-22C) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 24 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_zelia_jtwc_advisories.htm
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