[Index]
Tropical Cyclone TOMAS
[Southern Hemisphere Summary][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone TOMAS [Southern Hemisphere Summary][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTPS22 PGTW 20100310 22:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1S 172.8W TO 12.4S 176.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 101800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2S 173.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4S
172.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 173.4W, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
THROUGHOUT THE SAMOAN ISLANDS GENERALLY RANGES FROM 1006 TO 1007 MB
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 24-HOUR PRESSURE TRENDS. THE DISTURBANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE MARGINAL CONDITIONS ALOFT. A TROUGH
THAT HAD BUILT INTO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LESS THAN 12 HOURS AGO
IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSING CLOUD GROWTH IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
HOWEVER, A DIFFLUENT SOURCE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST IS PROVIDING
FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
112230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100311 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102221ZMAR10//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 11.0S 175.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 175.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 11.1S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.7S 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 12.6S 178.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 13.8S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.0S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.3S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 28.5S 173.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 175.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 110655Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BAND OF
30-KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE THAT IS STARTING TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
HAS A POINT-SOURCE ALOFT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW THOUGH IT HAS ALSO
SUPPRESSED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM
PGTW, PHFO AND NFFN. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 19P WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. BY TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE, ENABLING
THE SYSTEM TO RE-CURVE AFTER TAU 72. BY TAU 120, TC 19P SHOULD START
TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS FOR THE
INTENSITY FORECAST, TC 19P WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS DUE TO VERY GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH
A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE
JETSTREAM. AFTER THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS, IT WILL START TO
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 102230). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z AND 121500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100312 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 10.6S 177.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 177.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.0S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 11.5S 178.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 12.3S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.4S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.1S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.2S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 25.5S 176.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 177.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BENEATH
BUDDING CENTRAL CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED IN
NEARLY ALL QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION, THOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS
STILL LIMITED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, WHICH
BOTH INDICATE A 35 KNOT SYSTEM. NFFN IS ASSESSING THE INTENSITY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 40 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE TRACK WILL BEND TOWARDS FIJI AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DEEPENS EQUATORWARD AND WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. BEYOND FIJI THE
CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE WITH THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE MID-
LATITUDES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 72. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR 30C AND
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT THIS INTENSIFICATION. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES/OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLOWED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE ADDITION OF THE ECMWF TRACKER TO THE CONSENSUS
(WHICH IS NOW THE SLOWEST MEMBER AVAILABLE) AND A SLOWER GFS RUN.
EGRR REMAINS MUCH FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODEL PACKING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED TO REFLECT THE CONSENSUS. BECAUSE
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS BEEN
DELAYED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z AND 130300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P
(TWENTY) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100312 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 11.4S 177.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 177.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 12.0S 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 12.9S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.9S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.1S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.3S 179.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.3S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 25.1S 176.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 177.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
120716Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE
BANDING AS WELL AS CONTINUED SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. DIRECTLY ALOFT OF TC 19P, HOWEVER, AN ANTICYCLONE IS
PROVIDING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ACCORDINGLY, THE SYSTEM HAS
INTENSIFIED BY 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND PHFO. TC
TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW AND
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES. AROUND TAU 72, TOMAS SHOULD
ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AS A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STEERING RIDGE AND ENABLES A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. AT THE SAME TIME,
TOMAS SHOULD ALSO REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO
THE MID-LATITUDES INCREASES. BEYOND TAU 72, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS OHC VALUES FALL OFF AND UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE NOGAPS, GFDN AND UKMO
MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST BEFORE THE
SYSTEM RE-CURVES. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PUSHING QUICKLY EASTWARD, ENABLING THE RIDGE TO TEMPORARILY BUILD
BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE A SECOND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PULLS THE
SYSTEM INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. THE FORECAST COMPENSATES FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY BY KEEPING THE SYSTEM SLOW AS IT APPROACHES AND ROUNDS
THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100313 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 11.7S 178.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 178.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 12.9S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.9S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.2S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.6S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.3S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.4S 179.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.6S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 178.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE THAT IS ENHANCING EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED IN SATELLITE ANIMATION WITH A HIGH
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON
DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND PHFO. TC TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH TAU 72, THE SYSTEM
WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) VALUES. AFTER TAU 48, TOMAS SHOULD ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
AS A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE AND
ENABLES A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDES
INCREASES. BEYOND TAU 72, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS OHC VALUES DECREASE AND WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE NOGAPS, GFDN AND UKMO
MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST BEFORE THE
SYSTEM RE-CURVES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100313 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 12.4S 178.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 178.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.3S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.2S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.2S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.2S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.4S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 21.3S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.8S 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 179.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND
A 130703Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INTENSITY
HAS NOT INCREASED AS EXPECTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS
AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW, ABRF, AND CPHC DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 19P IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), BENEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE
PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 19P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THAT IS
WEAKENING DUE TO A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW TOMAS TO ROUND
THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 72 AND THEN BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE AND VWS WILL INCREASE AS TOMAS
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO, HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THE RECURVE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. THE GFS MODEL IS AN OUTLIER
WITH A SHARPER TURN AND A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TRACK SPEED THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHICH INDICATES A TRACK OVER VANUA LEVU, FIJI
WITH SPEEDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS AT THE EXTENDED TAUS TO
ACCOUNT FOR GFS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100314 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 179.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 179.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.6S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.5S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.3S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.4S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.0S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.1S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 27.8S 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 179.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC
19P HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE THAT IS ENHANCING GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 19P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE THAT IS WEAKENING DUE TO A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE,
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
ALLOW TOMAS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 48 AND THEN BEGIN TO
RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE AND VWS WILL
INCREASE AS TOMAS BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO, HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THE
RECURVE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. THE GFS MODEL IS AN OUTLIER WITH A SHARPER
TURN AND A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TRACK SPEED THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE,
WHICH INDICATES A TRACK OVER VANUA LEVU, FIJI.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 141500Z AND 150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100314 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 179.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 179.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.6S 179.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.7S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.2S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.0S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 24.3S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 28.1S 170.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 33.3S 161.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 179.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THIS TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND PHFO DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 100 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TOMAS IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
THROUGH TAU 48. AT THAT TIME, TC 19P WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE STR, INTENSITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
WITH LOW VWS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). AFTER TAU 48, TC 19P
WILL ENCOUNTER HIGHER VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND DECREASING OHC, WHICH WILL CAUSE INTENSITIES TO
DECREASE. BY TAU 96, TOMAS WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THEN BY TAU 120 WILL TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100315 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 179.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 179.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.7S 179.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.2S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.0S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.6S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 28.2S 171.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 179.3W.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100315 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 179.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 179.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.2S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.0S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.0S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 26.6S 174.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 33.6S 164.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 179.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
A 10 NM EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, PHFO, KNES, AND
ABRF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TOMAS IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDE (STR) IN AN AREA
OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>27 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AFTER TAU 24 WHEN IT WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 48 AND FULLY
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72 AS TOMAS INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. INTENSITIES WILL WEAKEN AS TC 19P APPROACHES THE
WESTERLIES WITH INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING OHC. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160300Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100316 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 179.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 179.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.5S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.3S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 27.2S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 31.4S 169.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 41.4S 155.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 179.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST
OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS
STILL WELL ORGANIZED WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A 20-NM RAGGED
EYE. TC TOMAS IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND MAY BE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD AND
STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 36 THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 161500Z AND 170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100316 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 179.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 179.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.9S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 25.2S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 29.6S 171.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 34.6S 164.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 179.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TOMAS HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AS IT ROUNDS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN PREPARATION FOR ENTRANCE INTO THE MID-
LATITUDES. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISTORTED AND ALIGNED
NORTH-TO-SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED, ASYMMETRIC AND
CLOUD-FILLED AS WELL. ACCORDINGLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
WEAKENED TO REFLECT A DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL ELEVATE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DRAMATICALLY
FALL NEAR 25S, OR TAU 24, ALLOWING FOR RAPID DECAY PRIOR TO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET). ET WILL BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 AS
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT UPSTREAM TROUGH. ET WITH WILL BE
COMPLETE NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100316 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 23.0S 177.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 177.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 27.2S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 32.2S 168.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 177.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 161637Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW TC TOMAS HAS INTENSIFIED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HAS RE-ESTABLISHED A
PARTIAL EYEWALL THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO HAVE COME UP TO 115 KNOTS. TC TOMAS HAS
INTENSIFIED DUE TO AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST CAUSED BY A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC TOMAS IS SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ACCELERATING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENCOUNTERS HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE JETSTREAM, TRACKS OVER
UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STARTS TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 170900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100317 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 27.0S 174.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 174.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 32.5S 168.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 28.4S 173.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TOMAS HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
AND IS ACCELERATING POLEWARD. CONVECTION IS BECOMING BIASED TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A JET RUNNING ALONG 30S. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW
SUSTAINABLE LEVELS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE
PLUMMETED TO A 3.5/4.5 (55-77 KNOTS) FROM A 5.0/6.0 (90-115 KNOTS)
APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS AGO. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A STRONG
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 23 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P
(ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_tomas.htm | Updated: 23 March 2010 |