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Tropical Cyclone 201901
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone 201901 Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 74.3E TO 11.5S 68.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3S 74.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 74.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 74.1E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 140411Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEPENED CONVECTION AND
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) AND
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A
LIMITING FACTOR AS THE SYSTEM RESIDES ON THE 26C ISOTHERM. DYNAMIC
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 90S AS A WEAK, COMPACT DISTURBANCE WITH A
WESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, WITH GFS AND ECMWF
PREDICTING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140851ZSEP2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 10.3S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 10.8S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.5S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.9S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 11.1S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 7.9S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 71.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A
COMBINATION OF THE EIR IMAGERY AND A 142250Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS CONVECTION WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A LOW
BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE REGION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KTS). TC 01S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL AT 26 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS BEING
STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER 01S WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
48. AFTER TAU 48, A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM AND THE TRACK WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, SST CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND 35 KTS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY HIGH, WITH A SPREAD OF OVER 300 NM
BY TAU 72, THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 140900).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 10.4S 71.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 71.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 10.9S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 11.5S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.1S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.2S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 10.9S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 7.6S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 70.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 150453Z ASCAT PASS. TC 01S IS TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE
COMPACT SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER, ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY 25 TO 26
DEGREES CELSIUS. THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND DURING THE INITIAL
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 48, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96.
TC 01S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE CONTINUED
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TAU 36. AROUND TAU 48, A SECOND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE AND TURN TC 01S TOWARD A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL PREDICTS A TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING. THE COMPACT CIRCULATION IS
VULNERABLE TO ANY CHANGE IN ANTICIPATED ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT EFFECT
THE STEERING LEVEL. THUS, THE OUTLIER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION IS
NOT CONSIDERED IMPLAUSIBLE IN THIS CASE. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z,
152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 10.7S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 70.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 11.1S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.8S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.3S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.1S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 10.3S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 7.3S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A MIDGET SYSTEM WITH A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A NOTCH
FEATURE IN THE 151128Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON EQUIVALENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MARGINAL AT 26 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UP TO TAU 36,
AFTERWARD A SECONDARY STR EXTENDING FROM MOZAMBIQUE WILL DRIVE THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. COOLING SSTS AND THE
INFLUX OF COOL DRY AIR FROM THE AFRICAN CONTINENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TC 01S, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z,
160900Z AND 161500Z.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 004
WTXS31 PGTW 152100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 10.6S 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 68.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 11.0S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 11.7S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.9S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 11.4S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 9.1S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 5.9S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 68.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 299 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 160300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 005 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 11.0S 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 68.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.6S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.0S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.8S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 11.1S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 8.4S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 5.6S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE SOUTHWEST. A 152105Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
SOLID MASS OF CONVECTION WITH NO SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND A WARM FEATURE IN THE 152105Z AMSR-2
37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KTS,
SLIGHTLY UNDER PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 01S HAS A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT NO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KTS). COOLER (24-25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE LIMITING DEVELOPMENT. 01S IS TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. MODELS SHOW THAT 01S WILL TURN
DUE WESTWARD AROUND TAU 24, THEN TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND
TRACK TOWARDS THE AFRICAN COAST AS ANOTHER STR BUILDS IN TO ITS
SOUTHWEST, WHILE MAINTAINING A MARGINAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS DUE
TO THE COOL SSTS. 01S WILL DROP BELOW 35 KTS AFTER TAU 72. THERE
IS A 210 NM SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU 72, WITH ECMWF
THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED REMARKS SECTION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 11.4S 66.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 66.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 11.9S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.2S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 11.8S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 10.7S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 8.0S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 66.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH LIMITED FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE SOUTHWEST. A 160432Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS MARGINAL
DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS BASED ON A
160434Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25-29 AND 30-34 KT WIND BARBS TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, AND WEAKER WINDS TO THE
NORTH. THIS INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY UNDER PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) BUT AGREES WITH THE FMEE
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 01S HAS
A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT MARGINAL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
HIGH, 25-30 KTS, SHEARING CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LLCC. COOLER (24-
25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND THE HIGHER VWS ARE
LIMITING DEVELOPMENT AND CONTRIBUTED TO THE 5 KT WEAKENING OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. 01S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. MODELS
SHOW THAT 01S WILL TURN DUE WESTWARD AROUND TAU 24, THEN TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND TRACK TOWARDS THE AFRICAN COAST AS ANOTHER
STR BUILDS IN TO ITS SOUTHWEST, WHILE MAINTAINING A MARGINAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS DUE TO THE COOL SSTS AND INCREASING VWS. 01S
WILL DROP BELOW 35 KTS AFTER TAU 48 UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A 210 NM SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU
72, WITH ECMWF THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS
11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 007
WTXS31 PGTW 161500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 11.9S 65.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 65.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.3S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.2S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 11.5S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 10.3S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 65.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 008
WTXS31 PGTW 162100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 64.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 64.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.6S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.0S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.0S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 64.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 557 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 009
WTXS31 PGTW 170300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 12.3S 63.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 63.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.2S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 63.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 592 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z
IS 8 FEET.
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_201901.htm | Updated: 24 December 2018 |