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Tropical Cyclone CILIDA
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Tropical Cyclone CILIDA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/182051Z DEC 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 182100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0S 61.2E TO 14.8S 57.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 61.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.3S 61.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 61.1E, APPROXIMATELY 698
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 181114Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW.
AS 92S TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, VWS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE SYSTEMS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS A DEFINED SYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CURRENT POSITION
REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30 CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE THAT 92S WILL STAY QUASI-STATIONARY FOR 12-24 HOURS,
THEN TRACK SOUTHWARD, WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTHWARD WITHOUT HESITATION. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH (35 KNOTS) AT ABOUT THE 24-48
HOUR TIME FRAME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28
TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
192100Z.
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/182051ZDEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 10.7S 60.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 60.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.3S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 12.1S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 13.0S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.7S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 15.2S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.2S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.3S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 60.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 601 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A SMAP PASS 14 HOURS AGO SUGGESTED MAXIMUM
WINDS WERE BELOW 35 KNOTS, HOWEVER, AN 182303Z SSMI 37GHZ PASS
SUGGESTS THIS LLCC HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED SINCE THAT
TIME. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMI PASS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS SET AT 35 KNOTS,
BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 WHICH WAS HELD DUE TO
CONSTRAINTS, AS WELL AS FMEE T2.5 AND OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE NOTED
MICROWAVE IMAGE. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS ARE
OFFSETTING MARGINAL 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS 07S CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST SHOULD PROVIDE
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, AFTER WHICH
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. INITIAL TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THERE IS
SUBSTANTIAL ALONG-TRACK SPREAD, PARTICULARLY AT THE EXTENDED TAUS.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 07S WILL DEEPEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH THE CONSENSUS PEAK INTENSITY AT AROUND 80
KNOTS IN THE 3 TO 4 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, HWRF AND COAMPS-TC ARE WELL
ABOVE THE CONSENSUS VALUES, AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED UPWARDS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. AS THIS IS THE FIRST
WARNING FOR TC 07S, AND GIVEN THE LARGE ALONG TRACK MODEL SPREAD,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z,
192100Z, AND 200300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 182100).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 11.0S 60.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 60.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.7S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.6S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.5S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.5S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.3S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.7S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.2S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 60.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH A WEAK, LARGE, AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE LLC
FEATURE IN THE MSI AND LINED UP WELL WITH A LLC FEATURE IN THE
190528Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
EQUIVALENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS ARE OFFSETTING
MARGINAL 20-KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WILL PROMOTE A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 85 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC 07S WILL ROUND
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD. DURING THIS
PHASE, A SECOND CYCLONE (TC 06S) WILL BE WITHIN PROXIMITY OF TC 07S
FOR A POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION THAT MAY INTRODUCE AN ERRATIC
MOTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS-TRACK,
HOWEVER, THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LATER TAUS. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS POSITIONED CLOSED TO MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 11.6S 60.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 60.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 12.3S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 13.3S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.3S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.6S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.4S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.8S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.5S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 60.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 544 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH A WEAK AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS ARE SPIRALING IN MOSTLY FROM THE
EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE LLC
FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON EQUIVALENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS ARE OFFSETTING MARGINAL 20-KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WILL PROMOTE A STEADY INTENSIFICATION,
REACHING 95 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 36, TC 07S WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STR AND RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD. DURING THIS PHASE, A SECOND
CYCLONE (TC 06S) WILL BE WITHIN PROXIMITY OF TC 07S FOR A POSSIBLE
BINARY INTERACTION THAT MAY INTRODUCE AN ERRATIC MOTION. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS-TRACK, HOWEVER, THERE IS
SUBSTANTIAL ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES, ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER TAUS. IN
VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS POSITIONED CLOSED TO MODEL CONSENSUS.MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 60.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 60.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.4S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.4S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.5S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.5S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.9S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.0S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.6S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 60.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 527 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED, FLARING
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON AMBIGUITIES SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER FROM A 191803Z ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED 40 KT WIND
BARBS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM AND SEVERAL 45 KT WIND BARBS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AGREES WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
ESPECIALLY THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND WARM (26-27 DEGREES
CELSIUS) SSTS ARE OFFSETTING MODERATE (20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TC 07S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE DUAL
STEERING INFLUENCES OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA, CAUSING THE STR TO RE-ORIENT TO THE EAST
AND PULLING TC 07S ON AN ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. DURING
THIS PHASE, A SECOND CYCLONE (TC 06S) WILL BE WITHIN PROXIMITY OF TC
07S FOR A POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION THAT MAY INTRODUCE AN ERRATIC
MOTION, THOUGH MODEL TRACKERS DO NOT CAPTURE THIS SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME. AS TC 07S MOVES POLEWARD, IT WILL ENTER A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOWER VWS, AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL IMPROVE AS TC
07S IS ABLE TO TAP INTO THE PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AID FOR 25 KTS OF INTENSITY INCREASE IN 24 HOURS HAS
BEEN TRIGGERED. ACCORDINGLY, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
PREDICTS A PEAK OF 105 KTS AT TAU 72, ON THE HIGH END OF MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. AFTER
TAU 72, VWS WILL INCREASE, OUTFLOW WILL DECREASE, AND SSTS WILL
DECREASE, AS TC 07S APPROACHES THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
CROSSES THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
TO 50 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ACROSS-TRACK, HOWEVER, THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER TAUS. ECMWF IS CLOSE TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NAVGEM, GFS, AND HWRF SOLUTIONS ARE WEST OF THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. GALWEM IS ON THE INSIDE OF AND FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 12.0S 60.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 60.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 12.7S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.7S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 14.7S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.0S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.5S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.7S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.3S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 59.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE AND WELL-ORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON INFLOW
INTO THE LLCC, WHICH IS COVERED BY THE CDO, IN THE EIR IMAGERY AND
LINES UP WITH A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE IN A 192248Z SSMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES MAINTAINED AT T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, AND WARM (26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS) SSTS ARE OFFSETTING LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KT), BUT IMPROVING, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS LONG AS
TC 07S CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT, IT WILL REMAIN IN THIS MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT. TC 07S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER
THE DUAL STEERING INFLUENCES OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36,
A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA, CAUSING THE STR TO RE-
ORIENT TO THE EAST AND PULLING TC 07S ON AN ACCELERATING
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THOUGH TC 06S TO THE EAST WILL APPROACH WITHIN
10 DEGREES OF TC 07S IN LATER TAUS, MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DOES NOT
CAPTURE ANY DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO, FAVORING THE
TROUGH SCENARIO INSTEAD. AS TC 07S MOVES POLEWARD, IT WILL ENTER A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOWER VWS, AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
IMPROVE AS TC 07S IS ABLE TO TAP INTO THE PASSING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AID FOR 25 KTS OF INTENSITY
INCREASE IN 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TRIGGERED. ACCORDINGLY, THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST NOW PREDICTS A PEAK OF 110 KTS AT TAU 72.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTED INTENSITIES HAVE INCREASED, AND
THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOW CLOSER TO THE NEW, HIGHER
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. AFTER TAU 72, VWS WILL INCREASE, OUTFLOW WILL
DECREASE, AND SSTS WILL DECREASE, AS TC 07S APPROACHES THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND CROSSES THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM.
TC 07S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120 AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS-
TRACK, HOWEVER, THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER TAUS. ECMWF IS CLOSE TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFS AND HWRF SOLUTIONS ARE WEST OF THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. GALWEM IS ON THE INSIDE OF AND FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 59.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 59.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.4S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.5S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.9S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.4S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.0S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.8S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.1S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 59.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 473 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
A RECENT SATELLITE FIX FROM PGTW AND A 200311Z GMI PASS INDICATING A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL EYE FEATURE. THE INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON A 200509Z ASCAT PASS. TC 07S IS UNDERGOING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION UNDER THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES OF
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD, TURNING THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY POLEWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD. TC
07S IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES WITH
THE TROUGH BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120. RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE NEAR-TERM AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE.
FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE INCREASED TO REFLECT THIS TREND. AFTER TAU
72, TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS INCREASING SHEAR
AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE. THE NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT DIFFER IN
THEIR DEPICTIONS OF BOTH THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THE ANTICIPATED
POLEWARD TURN AND POST-TURN ACCELERATION INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECAST BASED ON A
WESTWARD TREND OBSERVED IN RECENT CONSENSUS TRACKS. BASED ON THE
NOTED MODEL SPREAD, CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 13.2S 59.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 59.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.1S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.4S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.8S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.5S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.1S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.0S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.3S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 58.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 427 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S IS UNDERGOING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (INCREASING APPROXIMATELY 55 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS) UNDER THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES OF VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28 AND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED 18NM EYE WHILE A 201123Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE REVEALS
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD, TURNING THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY POLEWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD.
TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES
WITH THE TROUGH BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120. RAPID INTENSIFICATION
WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR-TERM AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE.
AFTER TAU 72, TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THIS
INCREASING SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL RESULT IN STEADY
WEAKENING IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. THE NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND
211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 13.8S 58.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 58.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.8S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.1S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.7S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.5S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.2S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.0S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.4S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 58.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S CONTINUES TO UNDERGO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION UNDER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS).
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED 10NM
EYE SURROUNDED BY SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRICAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED EIR AND A 201626Z GPMI 89GHZ IMAGE PINHOLE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES IN AGREEMENT OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE STR AXIS,
TURNING THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY POLEWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER
TAU 36. RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR-TERM AS
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 72, TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THIS INCREASING SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER WILL RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. TC 07S
IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE VWS
BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.2S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.4S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.2S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.1S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.9S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.9S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.9S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM NORTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY STEADILY
UNDER EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 CELSIUS). ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 10NM PINHOLE EYE SURROUNDED BY
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE COOLED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED EIR EYE FEATURE, SUPPORTED BY A 202107Z AMSR2 89GHZ
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AND T6.0 (115 KNOTS),
SUPPORTED BY A CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE
STR AXIS, TURNING THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY POLEWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 36. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THE NEAR-TERM AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO PEAK AT TAU 36, AS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SSTS
(26 TO 27 CELSIUS) AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL BECOME LIMITING
FACTORS. AFTER TAU 72, TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STEADILY
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THIS INCREASING SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL
RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. TC 07S IS EXPECTED
TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND EXPERIENCES THE UNFAVORABLE VWS BETWEEN TAU
72 AND TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 58.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 58.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.6S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.1S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.9S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.8S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.7S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.8S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, FROM 65 KNOTS AT 20/06Z TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED 15NM EYE WITH ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL CONVECTION DUE TO
LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 210522Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED SPIRAL BANDING WITH AN OBLONG EYEWALL SURROUNDING A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5/6.0 FROM PGTW AND
KNES AS WELL AS A RECENT CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 109 KNOTS. TC 07S
IS WOBBLING SLIGHTLY AS IT SLOWLY TURNS POLEWARD AND IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 155NM AT TAU 72
AND 220NM AT TAU 96, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48, TC CILIDA WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS AND TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (24-26C). THE SYSTEM
SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 57.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 57.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.3S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.9S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.7S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.7S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.9S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.9S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 57.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, FROM 90 KNOTS AT 20/12Z TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 10NM EYE. A 211214Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE INDICATES SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SYMMETRIC CORE AND A
SMALL, ROUND MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T6.5 (127 KNOTS) TO T7.0 (140 KNOTS). TC 07S IS WOBBLING
SLIGHTLY AS IT SLOWLY TURNS POLEWARD AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 110NM AT TAU 72 AND 205NM AT TAU 96,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 135 TO 140 KNOT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48, TC CILIDA WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS AND TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (24-26C). THE SYSTEM
SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 57.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 57.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.0S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.7S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.6S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.8S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.0S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.7S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 57.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 15 NM WIDE EYE EVIDENT IN ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A BULLSEYE 211755Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A RELATIVELY SMALL, SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0-T7.0 (115-140
KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 07S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, TC 07S WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT
TRACKS AROUND THE STR AXIS. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH TAU 36. AROUND TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
WILL BE COMPLETED SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 140 NM AT TAU 72 AND
210 NM AT TAU 96, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 57.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 57.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.7S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.5S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.5S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.6S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.8S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 58.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 15 NM WIDE EYE EVIDENT IN ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH WARM
(27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 07S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 07S WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE STR AXIS. TC 07S
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 36 THEN WEAKEN MORE
QUICKLY AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND EXPERIENCES INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SST.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AT TAU 36 AND WILL BE COMPLETED
AROUND TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT (SPREAD
OF 100 NM) THROUGH TAU 36 BUT THE SPREAD INCREASES TO 265 NM BY TAU
72, LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH
TAU 36 AND POOR CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z,
222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 58.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 58.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.7S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.8S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.9S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.2S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.6S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 58.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER
WEAKENED WITH SIGNS OF ELONGATION AND DISPERSION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK. HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS INTACT, INCLUDING A
WELL-DEFINED 5-NM PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI EYE THAT STACKED WELL WITH A SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 220502Z AMSU PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON EQUIVALENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115KTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES. THE SYSTEM IS IN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC
07S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES DUE TO EXPOSURE TO THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES, SSTS DECREASE, AND COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENTRAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC CILIDA WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48 AND WILL BECOME A STORM-FORCE
COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 58.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 58.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.0S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.0S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.2S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.3S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 31.4S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 59.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS EVIDENCED BY
REDUCED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ELONGATION AND DISPERSION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK. HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY
INTACT, INCLUDING A DEFINED 5-NM PINHOLE EYE THAT HAS NOW BECOME
OCCLUDED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE MSI EYE THAT STACKED WELL WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
IN THE 221051Z SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN THE CONSTRAINED DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115KTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES TO REFLECT THE WEAKER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
(28-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC 07S WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AS TC 07S TRACKS
DEEPER INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. SSTS WILL ALSO DECREASE, ALONG
WITH COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC
CILIDA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48 AND WILL BECOME
A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 72.
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z,
230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 59.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 59.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.7S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.8S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.7S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.7S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.5S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 59.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S HAS LOST ITS EYE
IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT STILL HAS
SIGNIFICANT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 221732Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS THE
EYEWALL STILL EXISTS DESPITE THE EYE BEING OBSCURED IN THE EIR LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 59.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 59.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.6S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.6S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.4S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.2S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.3S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 60.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 149 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE USING A 222314Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS
A FAINT EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0-T6.0 (90-115
KTS) AND MATCHES A 222148Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 101 KTS. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND MARGINAL (26-27
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WILL STEER TC 07S
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. ONCE THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AROUND TAU 36, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
BEGIN, WITH COMPLETION EXPECTED PRIOR TO TAU 72. THIS ALSO MARKS A
PERIOD WHERE VWS INCREASES AND SST DECREASES, ACCELERATING THE RATE
OF WEAKENING THAT HAS BEEN ON-GOING FOR THE LAST 24-30 HOURS. THE
BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 61.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 61.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.1S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.0S 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.1S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.0S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 61.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND CONTINUED TO
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS EVIDENCED BY UNRAVELING FEEDER BANDS,
WARMING CLOUD TOPS, AND ELONGATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON A 20-NM RAGGED EYE
IN THE MSI THAT CONTINUED TO BE MORE CLOUD-FILLED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.7-T5.5. POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
WESTERLIES REMAIN STRONG BUT IS OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE COLD MID-LATITUDES ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU
36, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 48
WILL BECOME A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD.
DUE TO THE OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TC CILIDA WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BY TAU 48, WILL BE REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z,
240300Z AND 240900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 62.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 62.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.4S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.2S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.2S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.7S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 62.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 299 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS
EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS ALONG WITH DISPERSION AND ELONGATION
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. FEEDER BANDS, HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO BE
WRAPPED TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON A CLOUD-FILLED 20-NM RAGGED
EYE IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T4.6-T5.5. POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES REMAIN STRONG BUT IS
OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE COLD MID-LATITUDES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO THE OVERALL UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, TC CILIDA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ERODE. BY TAU
36, THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU
48 WILL BECOME A 45-KNOT STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE
WIND FIELD. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND
241500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 23.4S 62.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 62.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.3S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.2S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.1S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.4S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 63.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION THAT IS
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS VERY LIMITED. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE USING A 231710Z MHS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF AN EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP
PRECIPITATION ON THREE SIDES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS AN
APPROXIMATE AVERAGE OF KNES AND PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
T4.5-T5.5 (77-102 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND MARGINAL (26-
27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) BEING OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AS TC 07S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AND TC 07S WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AS IT ENTERS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, NO LATER THAN TAU 24, WITH COMPLETION EXPECTED BY
TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY GROUPED, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z,
241500Z AND 242100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 24.3S 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S 64.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.1S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.0S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.1S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 64.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 459 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BECOME ISOLATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
SUGGESTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL BEGIN SOON. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING A 232302Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS AN APPROXIMATELY 20 NM WIDE
PARTIAL MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ROUNDED UP SLIGHTLY FROM PGTW AND
FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS). HIGH (25-
30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND UNFAVORABLE (25-26 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE HAVE MADE THE ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO
TROPICAL CYCLONES AND ETT IS EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR BY TAU 12 AND
COMPLETE BY TAU 36. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY, FALLING TO AN INTENSITY OF 40 KTS BY
TAU 36 WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY GROUPED, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 25.3S 65.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 65.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.0S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.1S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.5S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 65.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
532 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TC 07S IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST, AWAY FROM
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A PARTIAL 240530Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS
HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TC 07S IS
EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS) WHICH
IS OFFSET BY AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE, BETWEEN 25 TO 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 07S TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AND TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE. TC 07S WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 12 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 26.3S 66.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 66.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.0S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.3S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 26.7S 66.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (TC) (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
616 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TC 07S CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 240948Z
36GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70
KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T4.0
(65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND A 241145Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 68 KNOTS. TC
07S IS STILL EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30
KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNFAVORABLE, BETWEEN 25 TO 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 07S TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AND TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE. TC 07S WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 12 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 27.1S 67.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.1S 67.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.4S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 27.7S 67.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 696 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241754Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY-
EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON A 241649Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A SWATH OF 50-55
KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
POLEWARD WITHIN STRONG SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE 200MB JET
AND APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. A RECENT
AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS-SECTION INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL WARM
ANOMALY WITH A COLD ANOMALY NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE, TYPICAL OF
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS. TC CILIDA IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY GAIN FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT FURTHER EMBEDS WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS TO A STORM-FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY TAU 12. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 24
FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_cilida.htm | Updated: 27 December 2018 |