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Tropical Cyclone FUNANI
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone FUNANI Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0S 67.7E TO 17.9S 64.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
042030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
67.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 67.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 67.1E, APPROXIMATELY 645
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 041721Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
041722Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-
30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 051400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 190 NM RADIUS OF 12.6S 54.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 051300Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 54.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.7S 54.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 54.2E, APPROXIMATELY 499
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050105Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-
15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
(29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061400Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
051351ZFEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 64.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 64.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.4S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.0S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.2S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.0S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.9S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 31.9S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY WRAPPED BANDING WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
IMPROVE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 051042Z
37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
FMEE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 12S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
(5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW
WHICH CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 12S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH TAU 24, THE STR WILL
BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT, TC 12S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 24 AS IT INTENSIFIES. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TC 12S TO REACH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72. TC 12S WILL QUICKLY TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72
AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND INDICATES A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND
061500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS PGTW 042100).//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 64.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.8S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.6S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.0S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.9S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.5S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 34.7S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 64.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 463 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE.
A 051439Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (MI) SHOWS A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A CYAN RING, WHICH TYPICALLY SIGNALS AN
IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE. BASED ON THE MI, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE,
CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM
FIMP. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST (30C). TC FUNANI IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 12, A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL REORIENT THE STR AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DUE TO THE EXCELLENT VENTING, TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. AFTER TAU
60, TC 12S SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VWS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. AFTER TAU 96, TC FUNANI WILL REMAIN A STRONG COLD-
CORE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITH STORM-FORCE WINDS. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 64.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 64.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.2S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.0S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.7S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.9S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.5S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 35.0S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 64.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A TIGHT
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 052332Z
SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT 50 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) IN LIGHT OF AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 55
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VWS, VERY WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS) AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING
PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE NEARBY. TC FUNANI IS
TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC FUNANI IS FORECAST
TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
STR BEGINS TO REORIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE WEST. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS RADIAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES AND BECOMES ENHANCED
BY A TAP INTO THE POLEWARD FLOW AHEAD OF THE DIVERGENT TROUGH,
PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS AT TAU 48. BEYOND TAU 48, INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO PUT THE SYSTEM ON A WEAKENING TREND.
BY TAU 72, TC FUNANI BEGINS TO INTERACT DIRECTLY WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ALOFT AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96,
AS IT GAINS COLD CORE BAROCLINIC TRAITS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH SOME MARGINAL SPREAD AFTER TAU 72, WITH
NAVGEM AND ECMWF DEFINING THE WESTERN AND EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE RESPECTIVELY. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z,
062100Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 64.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.4S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.8S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.6S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.2S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 29.9S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 39.3S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING SPIRALING
INTO AN EMERGING WARM EYE VISIBLE IN THE MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AMBIGUITIES FROM A
060518Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT 55 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) TOWARDS THE KNES
AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A 060515Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 58 KNOTS. THE FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATE IS T4.0 (65
KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VWS, VERY WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS) AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING
PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE NEARBY. TC 12S IS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST, AND IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STR BEGINS TO REORIENT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. TC
12S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
RADIAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES AND AS OUTFLOW ADDITIONALLY TAPS INTO
POLEWARD FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, PEAKING
AT 100 KNOTS AT TAU 48. BEYOND TAU 48, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING
SSTS WILL COMBINE TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 72, TC 12S
BEGINS TO INTERACT DIRECTLY WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGINS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH
SOME MARGINAL SPREAD AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS ETT AND IS
PULLED QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE TROUGH. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES
CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 17.5S 64.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 64.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.6S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.1S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.1S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.8S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.4S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 64.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION
IN AN ORGANIZING EYEWALL SURROUNDING AN EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN MSI IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT 65 KNOTS
BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65
KTS). A 060936Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 73 KTS REMAINS ABOVE THE JTWC
INTENSITY ESTIMATE, ALTHOUGH THE AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE RETURNS
65 KTS AT 261145Z, IN LINE WITH THE JTWC INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, VERY WARM SSTS (30
CELSIUS) AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
POINT SOURCE NEARBY. TC 12S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE EAST, AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE STR BEGINS TO REORIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS RADIAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES AND AS OUTFLOW
ADDITIONALLY TAPS INTO POLEWARD FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS AT TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 48,
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO BEGIN A WEAKENING
TREND. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROUGH AFTER TAU 48 AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 12S
IS EXPECTED COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72, STILL AS A
STRONG SYSTEM WITH EXPANSIVE WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND
071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 062100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 006A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 64.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 64.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.0S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.8S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.1S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.8S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 31.8S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 39.7S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 65.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 447 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED
TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A SHARPLY
OUTLINED 12-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP
PERFECTLY WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 1425Z SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. TC 12S IS TRACKING OVER WARM
WATERS (30 CELSIUS) ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
110 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW FURTHER IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS
WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. CONCURRENTLY, TC 12S WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, EVENTUALLY BECOMING A STRONG STORM-FORCE
COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED PEAK INTENSITY IN
REMARKS.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.8S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.9S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.4S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.2S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.2S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 65.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 464 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS RAIN BANDS WRAP
TIGHTER INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A PINHOLE 10-NM
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE
IN THE 062108Z GCOM 36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS AND T5.5/102KTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. TC 12S IS TRACKING OVER
WARM WATERS (30 CELSIUS) ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW FURTHER IMPROVES AHEAD OF
THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS
WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY TAU 48, TC 12S WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, EVENTUALLY BECOMING A STRONG STORM-FORCE
COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 19.0S 66.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 66.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.6S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.7S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.3S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.7S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 34.1S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 66.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 502 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A THICK EYEWALL SURROUNDING A PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 070455Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 107 KTS AND IS BELOW THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS THAT IS
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. TC 12S IS TRACKING OVER WARM
WATERS (30 CELSIUS) ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. TC 12S WILL ACCELERATE TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
INCREASE FURTHER AS TC 12S TAPS INTO THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO 115 KTS BY TAU 12.
AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL CAUSE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. BY TAU 48, TC 12S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING A STRONG STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN
EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 19.9S 66.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 66.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.5S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.9S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.5S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.0S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 35.5S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 67.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TC 12S HAS MAINTAINED A THICK EYEWALL
SURROUNDING A SMALL EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AGREES WITH MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T6.0 (115 KTS) AND CLOSE TO A 070916Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 119 KTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH LOW (10-
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A
STRONG POLEWARD BIAS THAT IS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION.
TC 12S IS TRACKING OVER WARM WATERS (26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS) ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. TC 12S WILL ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AS IT IS PULLED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL INITIALLY INCREASE AS TC 12S TAPS
INTO THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION TO 120 KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS,
DECREASING SSTS, AND DECREASING OUTFLOW AS TC 12S MOVES UNDER THE
WESTERLY JET, WILL CAUSE WEAKENING. BY TAU 48, TC 12S WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, EVENTUALLY BECOMING A STRONG STORM-FORCE
COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 20.6S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.8S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.2S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.8S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.7S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 39.3S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 68.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 586 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND
A SEMI-CLOUD FILLED BUT DEFINED 10-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP
THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 071725Z AMSU IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115KTS
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. TC
12S IS TRACKING OVER WARM WATERS (30 CELSIUS) ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND
WILL REMAIN ON THIS TRACK FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
120 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW FURTHER IMPROVES AHEAD OF
A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY
TAU 48, TC 12S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY
TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 56 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z,
081500Z, AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 21.7S 68.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 68.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.9S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.6S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.4S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 32.7S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 41.7S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 69.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 646 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR) IMAGERY
DEPICTS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED 10 NM DIAMETER EYE,
WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES ON THE IR
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS MAINTAINED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS),
HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MODERATING DEVELOPMENT AS
FUNANI CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD. TC 12S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST, AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT
THIS TRACK MOTION WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, AFTER WHICH VWS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AS A
MID-LATITUDETROUGH APPROACHES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO COOL. FUNANI IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
48, AND THIS TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE PRIOR TO TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z, AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 22.8S 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.4S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.2S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 31.3S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.3S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 70.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 722 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 080600Z METEOSAT 8 VISIBLE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 12S HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE,
BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS, BUT TC 12S IS TRACKING TOWARD
COOLER WATER. TC 12S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE STR WILL BE THE
MAIN STEERING FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE. AS A RESULT, TC 12S WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY,
REACHING 90 KNOTS BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 12S WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 53 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z,
090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 24.4S 71.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 71.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.1S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.2S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.5S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 37.9S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 71.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 813 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED BUT CONTINUES TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 081130Z METEOSAT 8 VISIBLE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 12S HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS, BUT TC 12S IS
CONTINUING TO TRACK TOWARD COOLER WATER. TC 12S IS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE STR WILL BE THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. AS A RESULT, TC
12S WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING 75 KNOTS BY TAU 24.
BY TAU 36, TC 12S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 25.6S 72.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 72.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.4S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 31.6S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.5S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 73.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 918 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 081703Z AMSU
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
BASED ON THE MARKED WEAKENING TREND AND DECAYING STRUCTURE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS). TC 12S
IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, AND IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOL SST (LESS THAN 24C) BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS AS
IT COMPLETES ETT AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS NEAR TAU 36.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 26.9S 73.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 73.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.8S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.2S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 38.2S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 74.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 974 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 082255Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER TILTED ABOUT 40NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON THE
DECAYING STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.0 (65
KNOTS) TO 4.5 (77 KNOTS). TC 12S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND DEEP
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL SST (LESS THAN
24C) BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS AS IT COMPLETES ETT AND
GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS NEAR TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND
100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 28.1S 74.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1S 74.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.8S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.1S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 28.8S 75.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1056 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH
WARMING, INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION BEING SHEARED
POLEWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE INTERMITTENTLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE
DECAYING STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS,
BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 (55
KTS) TO T4.0 (65KTS). A 090415Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 67 KTS, ALTHOUGH
THE AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE RETURNS AN ESTIMATE OF 61 KTS. TC 12S
IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, AND IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT COMES UNDER THE WESTERLY JET AND UNDERGOES EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM HAS CROSSED THE 26 CELSIUS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC
12S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE IT UNDERGOES ETT, BUT WILL REMAIN
AN EXPANSIVE STORM WITH FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND A BROAD WIND
FIELD AFTER IT COMPLETES ETT BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 29.3S 75.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3S 75.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 32.8S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 37.9S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 30.2S 75.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1124 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 091124Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH REMNANT, WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE 291124Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE DISINTEGRATING, SHEARED STRUCTURE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KTS, BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 (55 KTS) TO T3.0 (45 KTS). THE
AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE RETURNS T3.4 (53 KTS). TC 12S IS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
IT COMES UNDER THE WESTERLY JET AND UNDERGOES EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM HAS CROSSED THE 26 CELSIUS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A
DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT (25-30 KTS). IT
MAINTAINS A GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND IS NOT YET SITUATED
UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE JET. TC 12S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT UNDERGOES ETT, BUT WILL REMAIN AN EXPANSIVE STORM WITH FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND A BROAD WIND FIELD AFTER IT COMPLETES ETT BY TAU
24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 30.8S 76.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8S 76.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.0S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 31.9S 77.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1210 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND LIMITED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST DUE TO STRONG (40 TO 50 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A
091641Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35
KNOTS). TC 12S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
12 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_funani.htm | Updated: 7 March 2019 |