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Tropical Cyclone HALEH
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone HALEH Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9S 77.2E TO 15.5S 72.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.2S 76.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4S 80.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 76.9E, APPROXIMATELY 315
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 010531Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTING CONVECTIVE BANDING
PRESENT TO THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION ALSO PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER.
A 010359Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
PRIMARILY 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER, BUT 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SOUTH BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 KNOTS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SHOW
INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR//
HI/020551ZMAR2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 12.1S 75.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 75.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.4S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.6S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.9S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.1S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.9S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.4S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.4S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 75.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN STRUCTURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
020408Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED A PARTIAL 020409Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A
SWATH OF 40 KNOT WINDS. THE INTENSITY IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AN T3.0
(45 KNOTS) FROM KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE TO
NEUTRAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
17S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
STR WILL BE THE STEERING FEATURE THROUGH TAU 48 AND ALLOW TC 17S TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER, THE STR WILL WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48
AND GIVE WAY TO A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) WHICH WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48. THIS WILL ALLOW TC 17S TO SLOW IN FORWARD
SPEED. BEYOND TAU 72, AN ADDITIONAL STR WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH
ALLOWING TC 17S TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
POOR AGREEMENT AND IS INDICATING A BIFURCATION. THE AFUM AND EGRR
TRACKERS INDICATE A MORE SOUTHWARD, SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NER, WHILE THE REMAINING CONSENSUS
MEMBERS INDICATE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD TRACK
FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. AFUM AND EGRR HAVE
MORE ACCURATELY CAPTURED THE SOUTH-SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE MOST
RECENT STORM MOTION. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING
THE AFUM AND EGRR SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND
030900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 74.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 74.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.7S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.0S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.1S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.2S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.9S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.6S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.9S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 74.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP POCKETS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 021225Z 37GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF
T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TC 17S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15
KNOTS) AND HAS FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29
AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 17S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE
LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR WILL BE THE STEERING FEATURE
THROUGH TAU 48 AND ALLOW TC 17S TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER, THE
STR WILL WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 AND GIVE WAY TO A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) WHICH WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48 AND A SECOND STR
WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH. TC 17S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE WIND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 17S TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF
110 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR
AGREEMENT, INDICATING A BIFURCATION. THE AFUM AND EGRR TRACKERS
INDICATE A MORE SOUTHWARD, SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NER, WHILE THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS
INDICATE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO THE RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD
STORM MOTION THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 74.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 74.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.5S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.6S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.6S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.6S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.4S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.7S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.3S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 73.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST-CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH EXPANSIVE
RAIN BANDS WRAPPING IN MOSTLY FROM THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 021756Z GPM NEAR-SURFACE 36GHZ COLORIZED
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC 17S WILL CONTINUE
ON ITS CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR WILL BUILD WESTWARD AND
DRIVE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP TO
115KTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL
PROMOTE A STEADY WEAKENING AND, BY TAU 120, TC HALEH WILL BE DOWN TO
90KTS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
MINIMAL SPREADING UP TO 245NM BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 73.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 73.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.3S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.6S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.5S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.4S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.8S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 25.8S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 73.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 433 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT, FOR THE MOST PART, THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED ITS TC SIGNATURE WITH
EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS WRAPPING IN MOSTLY FROM THE EQUATORWARD SIDE.
HOWEVER, THE EIR LOOP ALSO SHOWS SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE RAGGED BUT DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 022307Z
SSMIS 91GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND A
SATCON DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.8/62KTS AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC 17S WILL CONTINUE
ON ITS CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR WILL BUILD
WESTWARD AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION
UP TO 115KTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS
WILL PROMOTE A RAPID WEAKENING AND, BY TAU 120, TC HALEH WILL BE DOWN
TO 75KTS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL
SPREADING UP TO 250NM BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 73.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 73.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.8S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.8S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.8S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.7S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.8S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.2S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 26.0S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 73.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
IMPRESSIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A BROAD EYE FEATURE FORMING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 030521Z 37GHZ GMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 17S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 17S
IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 17S WILL
CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK TROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36,
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 17S TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD.
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TC 17S TO
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE MODEL SPREAD IS NOW ONLY
110 NM BY TAU 96 WITH A LARGER ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 120 BUT A
SMALL ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 73.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 73.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.8S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.8S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.8S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.7S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.9S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.6S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.7S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 73.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTLY WRAP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 031032Z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS
IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF
T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC
17S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
AND IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 17S IS TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD WHILE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 17S WILL MOVE ON A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 17S TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TC 17S TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 60. BEYOND TAU 60, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
LESS OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A LOW ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD BUT A MODERATE
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. HOWEVER, OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 29
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 73.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 73.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.4S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.4S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.3S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.5S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.7S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 25.4S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 28.7S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 73.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EXPANSIVE SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE RAIN BANDS WRAPPING IN MOSTLY FROM
THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED BUT DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN
THE 031620Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77KTS FROM PGTW. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC
17S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR WILL
BUILD WESTWARD AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL FUEL STEADY THEN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION UP TO 115KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS WILL PROMOTE A STEADY WEAKENING AND, BY TAU 120, TC
HALEH WILL BE REDUCED TO 70KTS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING UP TO 350NM BY TAU 120, LENDING AN OVERALL
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 29
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 73.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 73.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.0S 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.1S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.1S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.2S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.6S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.5S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 30.2S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 73.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 602 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EXPANSIVE SYSTEM WITH RAIN BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE EQUATORWARD SIDE,
WRAPPING IN TIGHTER INTO A DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A
FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 032255Z 37GHZ
NEAR-SURFACE COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW. ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). TC 17S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU
24, THE STR WILL BUILD WESTWARD AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION UP TO 115KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL PROMOTE A STEADY WEAKENING AND,
BY TAU 120, TC HALEH WILL BE REDUCED TO 60KTS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 WHERE NAVGEM DEVIATES
SIGNIFICANTLY LEFT OF THE MODEL CLUSTER INTO THE STR, SPREADING THE
ENVELOPE UP TO 380NM BY TAU 120. DESPITE THIS SINGLE MODEL DEVIATION,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID TO
THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48 TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY
NAVGEM SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 73.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 73.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.9S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.9S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.0S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.1S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 24.7S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 28.3S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 32.7S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 72.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN APPROXIMATELY 30 NM WIDE EYE IN ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS
BETWEEN PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102
KTS) AND A 040436Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 107 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS VERY FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, FAIR EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC 17S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THIS STR WILL
CONTINUE TO GUIDE TC 17S IN A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHED OUTFLOW WILL
CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL TAU 72, WHEN INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY. BY TAU 120, TC 17S SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST, LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 72.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 72.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.6S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.6S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.6S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.9S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.1S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 30.0S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 34.8S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 72.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 25-30 NM WIDE EYE HAS PERSISTED FOR THE
PAST SIX HOURS AND THE CLOUD FIELD HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SYMMETRIC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON THE MSI LOOP
AND AN EYE FEATURE IN A 041130Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST). FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 17S WILL TRACK ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AROUND TAU 96, THE TRACK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AS TC 17S ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THROUGH
TAU 48, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE AND THE
INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN AT 100 KTS OR GREATER THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
AFTER TAU 48, A COMBINATION OF DIMINISHED OUTFLOW, INCREASED VWS,
AND COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO STEADILY
WEAKEN, FALLING TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, TC 17S
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH
LIES EAST OF THE OTHER MEMBERS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF
NAVGEM, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS
TRACK, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE BULK OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 43
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 72.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 72.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.1S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.3S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.6S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.9S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 27.2S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 32.1S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 37.0S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 72.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE 25-30 NM WIDE EYE HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SIX
HOURS AND THE CLOUD FIELD HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON THE EYE FOUND IN THE EIR
LOOP AND A 041600Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115
KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS) AND A 041707Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 116
KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 17S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) BUILDS IN TO ITS
NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTH SHIFTS
EASTWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE
THROUGH TAU 36, AT WHICH POINT VWS INCREASES AND SST DECREASES
ABRUPTLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, CORRELATING WITH A
STEADY INTENSITY DROP TO 55 KTS AT 120 HOURS. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER TAU 72 (PAST 30 DEGREES SOUTH)
AS TC 17S PASSES THE 26 DEGREE SST ISOTHERM BEFORE IT MEETS AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST, PULLING ITS TRACK EASTWARD
AFTER TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
96 HOURS, HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE TO THE EAST AFTER
THIS POINT VARIES BY MODEL DEPENDING ON HOW THE MODELS PORTRAY THE
PASSING OF THE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS
35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 72.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 72.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.7S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.8S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.1S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.6S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.4S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 33.8S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 38.4S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 72.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE 20-25 NM WIDE EYE HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH A
THINNING CLOUD FIELD ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON THE EYE FOUND IN THE EIR LOOP AND ON
THE 042243Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS) GIVEN THE 042058Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 110
KTS AND THE DEVELOPING ASYMMETRY IN THE CLOUD FIELD. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). TC 17S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) BUILDS IN TO ITS NORTHEAST AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 36.
BEYOND TAU 36, VWS INCREASES AND SST DECREASES ABRUPTLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, CORRELATING WITH A STEADY INTENSITY DROP
TO 45 KTS AT 120 HOURS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFTER TAU 48 (PAST 30 DEGREES SOUTH) AS TC 17S PASSES THE 26
DEGREE SST ISOTHERM BEFORE IT MEETS AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST, PULLING ITS TRACK EASTWARD AFTER TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS, HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE RECURVATURE TO THE EAST AFTER THIS POINT VARIES BY MODEL
DEPENDING ON HOW THEY PORTRAY THE PASSING OF THE TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 72.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 72.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.6S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.8S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 24.1S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 25.8S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 30.5S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 36.4S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 42.4S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 71.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM EAST
OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A CLOUD-FILLED
14NM EYE. A 050418Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A NEAR-COMPLETE EYEWALL
SURROUNDING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 5.5 TO 6.0 (102 TO 115 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER,
CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND WESTERN PERIPHERY IS HINDERING OUTFLOW. TC
17S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WITH ANOTHER STR
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD, THE STR TO
THE SOUTH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE WITH A GENERAL
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR
TO THE SOUTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 96.
AFTER TAU 96, TC HALEH WILL RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOME
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND QUICKLY COMPLETE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN STEADILY
AFTER TAU 12 AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO STRONG (30-40
KNOTS) VWS AND COOLER SST VALUES (LESS THAN 26C INITIALLY AND
COOLING TO 17C BY TAU 120). WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z,
060300Z AND 060900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 21.1S 71.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 71.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.2S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.5S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.0S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.0S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 32.0S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 38.3S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 71.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 920 NM EAST
OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A CLOUD-FILLED 20-25NM EYE. A
051116Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
WITH A SOLID EYEWALL SURROUNDING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0 TO 6.0 (90 TO 115 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER,
CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND WESTERN PERIPHERY IS HINDERING OUTFLOW. TC
17S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WITH ANOTHER STR
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD, THE STR TO
THE SOUTH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE WITH A GENERAL
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR
TO THE SOUTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC
HALEH WILL RECURVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND QUICKLY COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER TAU 12
AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO STRONG (25-35 KNOTS) VWS AND COOLER
SST VALUES (LESS THAN 26C INITIALLY AND COOLING TO 19C BY TAU 96).
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 71.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 71.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.9S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 24.2S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 25.8S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 27.9S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 32.6S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.4S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 71.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A CLOUD-
FILLED 20-25NM EYE. A 051647Z METOP-B AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS LIMITED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A WEAKENING EYEWALL
SURROUNDING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE GIVING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS
BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T5.0 TO 5.5 (77 TO 90 KNOTS) AS WELL AS AN ADT ESTIMATE OF 92 KTS AT
051815Z. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 DEGREES
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY IS HINDERING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND LEADING TO THE CLOUD SHIELD ASYMMETRY. TC 17S IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WITH ANOTHER STR POSITIONED TO
THE SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD, THE STR TO THE SOUTH WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR TO THE SOUTH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 THROUGH AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 72, TC 17S WILL RECURVE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND QUICKLY COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OVER COOL (19-
20 DEGREES CELSIUS) SST WATERS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AS THE
EASTERNMOST OUTLIER, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 22.3S 71.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 71.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.5S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.0S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.7S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.8S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 33.8S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 70.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 777 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH AN
INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE AND OCCASIONAL WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE
BANDS. A 060041Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LIMITED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A WEAKENING EYEWALL SURROUNDING A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE AND THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER,
GIVING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO 5.0 (77 TO 92 KNOTS) AS WELL AS AN
ADT ESTIMATE OF 80 KTS AT 052345Z. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WARM (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY IS HINDERING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC 17S WILL THEN SHIFT TO A SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS ANOTHER STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS
AND MOVES EASTWARD BECOMING THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. AFTER
TAU 48, TC 17S WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND LOW (24-25 DEGREE CELSIUS) SST AS IT MOVES INTO THE PATH OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL
ALSO SUPPRESS DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THE WEAKENING
TREND AND INDUCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINNING AT TAU 48. TC
17S IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, EXCEPT NAVGEM AS
THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER LATER IN THE FORECAST, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z,
062100Z AND 070300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 23.0S 70.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 70.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 24.4S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 26.0S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.0S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 30.2S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 35.6S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 69.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 843 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 060416Z GMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO 5.0 (90 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
(20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TC 17S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND IS
FORECAST TO TURN GRADUALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS
EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AND
WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC HALEH SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE TO 20-22C
AFTER TAU 48. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 85NM AT TAU 72.
CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 23.6S 69.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 69.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.9S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.8S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.3S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 31.8S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.1S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 68.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH DECAYING,
ASYMMETRIC CORE CONVECTION. A 061103Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO TURN GRADUALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC HALEH SHOULD
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS INCREASES AND SST
VALUES DECREASE TO 20-22C AFTER TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 120NM AT TAU 72.
CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 24.4S 68.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 68.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 25.9S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.4S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 31.1S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 33.5S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 37.9S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 68.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 678 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE SWATH OF DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH THAT IS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A
061736Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MICROWAVE EYE AND ON LOW LEVEL TURNING IN THE EIR LOOP WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES, ALONG WITH AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T4.8
(85 KTS) AT 061815Z. CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
AND TC 17S MAINTAINED WELL-ORGANIZED BANDING DESPITE INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25
KNOTS) VWS OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO TURN GRADUALLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC
17S SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS INTO
AN AREA OF HIGHER VWS AND CROSSES THE 26 DEGREE SST ISOTHERM INTO
COOLER WATER BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 85NM AT TAU 72. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 25.1S 68.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S 68.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.1S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.5S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 32.1S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 34.5S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 38.9S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 25.6S 67.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 669 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION AS NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DISPLACES THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 062238Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A WELL DEFINED CENTER FEATURE, WHICH IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS OBSERVED IN THE EIR. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE CENTER FEATURE AND
THE PGTW FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS). ALTHOUGH THE MOST
RECENTLY AVAILABLE SATCON ESTIMATE IS ON THE HIGH END OF THE RANGE,
THE ADT VALUES HAVE DROPPED SHARPLY IN RECENT HOURS. WHILE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VWS AND
DECLINING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTINUED
DECAY OF 17S. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL STEERING FLOW REGIME, WITH A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE TILTED TROUGH
TO THE WEST. HALEH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BY WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE UNDERNEATH THE 200 MB TROUGH AND FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOR THE REMNANT EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW WAS MAINTAINED FOR
ONE ADDITIONAL POSIT TO INDICATE THE RECURVATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
THAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW
UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z,
072100Z, AND 080300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 26.2S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.4S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 30.8S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 33.4S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 35.7S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 40.3S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 26.7S 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS
PERSISTED, CONTINUING TO PUSH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD.
DESPITE THE SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND A 070409Z PARTIAL METOP-A
ASCAT PASS WHICH WAS ALSO USED TO ASSESS THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS
IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T4.0 (65 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
WITH MARGINAL (27 CELSIUS), COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
AND HIGH (25-30 KTS) VWS OVERCOMING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 17S WILL
TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST IS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE HIGH VWS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE, BRINGING THE INTENSITY TO 35 KTS
BY TAU 72. BY TAU 36, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL BEGIN,
WITH COMPLETION EXPECTED BY TAU 48. THE FORECAST IS EXTENDED TO TAU
72 TO SHOW THE SYSTEM RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 27.1S 67.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.1S 67.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.4S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 31.9S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 34.4S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 36.8S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 27.7S 67.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 691 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 130 NM CIRRUS SHIELD WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). LOW LEVEL RAIN BANDS ARE VISIBLE BEYOND THE CIRRUS SHIELD IN
ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LLCC IN A 071106Z SSMI
85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS AVERAGED
BETWEEN PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55
KTS) AND T4.0 (65 KTS), RESPECTIVELY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) AND HIGH (25-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSETTING A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 17S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). BY TAU 36,
TC 17S WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD.
THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING
AND THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 40 KTS BY TAU 48.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL BEGIN AROUND TAU 24 AS
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT AND THE CYCLONE
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 48, ETT
IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED AND TC 17S WILL BECOME A COLD-CORE, MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT,
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS
PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z,
080900Z AND 081500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 28.2S 67.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 67.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 30.4S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 33.0S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 35.5S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.1S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 28.7S 66.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 719 NM SOUTHEAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM, WITH DECAYING CONVECTION AND AN OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC). A 071635Z BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS SUPPORTED
PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF
T3.2 (42 KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 60 KNOTS. THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY SO
OVER TIME, WITH HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS, AND COOL SSTS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 26 CELSIUS. UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
ROBUST, BUT CONVERGENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PUTTING INCREASED
PRESSURE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYER STR TO THE EAST. A 071439Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED
THAT THE LLC IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION, INDICATIVE OF THE ONSET OF A RAPID DECAY SCENARIO.
THUS, THIS FORECAST CHANGES THE OVERALL END-GAME SCENARIO FROM
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO DISSIPATION AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
RAPIDLY DECAY WELL NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AMSU THERMAL CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM 211400Z SHOWED THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF TRANSITION TO A SUB-TROPICAL STATE BUT IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THIS TRANSITION BEFORE DISSIPATION. TC 17S WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWWARD THROUGH TAU 24, BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS THE STR TO
THE EAST WEAKENS AND RETREATS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND
082100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 29.6S 66.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.6S 66.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 32.2S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 34.8S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.4S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 30.3S 65.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 747 NM SOUTHEAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE A VERY RAPID DECAY,
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED AS
CONVECTION AND CIRRUS DEBRIS ARE SHEARED OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
EXPOSED LLCC, AND SUPPORTED BY A 212223 SSMI 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWED A VERY WELL ORGANIZED LLCC SIGNIFICANTLY DISPLACED FROM
THE WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS)
AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF
T2.4 (34 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 17S LIES
IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH (30-40 KNOTS) VWS AND
COOL SSTS (25 CELSIUS). POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, BUT IS
BEING OFFSET BY THE OTHER UNFAVORABLE PARAMETERS. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
STR LOCATED TO THE EAST. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS FULLY DECOUPLED AND
IS PASSING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS ALREADY LESS THAN 26
CELSIUS, CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECASTED WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY
LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. THE SYSTEM DOES SHOW SIGNS OF
BECOMING EXTRA- OR SUB-TROPICAL, HOWEVER IT IS WELL NORTH OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW 35 KNOTS BEFORE
COMPLETING THE TRANSITION. TC 17S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS THE STR TO THE EAST WEAKENS AND REORIENTS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 31.0S 66.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.0S 66.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 33.6S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 36.2S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.7S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 31.6S 65.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 805 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH ALSO SHOWS
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER 70 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ABOVE THE PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BASED ON A PARTIAL 080501Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS A LARGE REGION OF 45 KT WINDS TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 CELSIUS AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KTS ARE UNFAVORABLE AND WILL
CAUSE TC 17S TO STEADILY WEAKEN, DESPITE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND
DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 36. CONCURRENTLY, TC 17S IS
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE WARNING THRESHOLD UNTIL THE CYCLONE
COMPLETES ETT PRIOR TO TAU 72. THROUGH TAU 24, TC 17S WILL FOLLOW
THE PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST. BY TAU 36, THE TRACK WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
CYCLONE ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 32.2S 65.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.2S 65.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 35.0S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.5S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 32.9S 65.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 852 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTH IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS, WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
HEDGED ABOVE PGTW/KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0-T2.5 (30-
35 KTS) BASED ON EARLIER COMPARISON BETWEEN DVORAK INTENSITIES AND
ASCAT DATA. THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE OVERALL WITH COOL (25-26
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND HIGH (30-35 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OVERCOMING A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO WEAKEN
THE INTENSITY BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 24. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE WILL LINGER AT, OR JUST BELOW, THE WARNING
THRESHOLD OF 35 KTS AS TC 17S UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AND THE WARNING DURATION MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED UNTIL TAU 48-
72 WHEN ETT SHOULD BE COMPLETED. TC 17S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. AROUND TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE STR AXIS AND BEGINS TO RECURVE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 33.6S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6S 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 36.2S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.7S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 34.3S 65.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 915 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM THE ANIMATED IMAGERY
AND A 081752Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS, WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
HEDGED ABOVE KNES/PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0-T1.5 (25
KTS) DUE TO A PARTIAL 081753Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING A LARGE
SWATH OF 40KT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. TC 17S IS SHOWING
SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
CONVECTION ARE BECOMING SIGNIFICANTLY DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL UNFAVORABLE WITH COOL (22-24 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH (25-35 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OVERCOMING A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE
INTENSITY BELOW BASIN WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 24. TC 17S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AROUND TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AND BEGINS TO RECURVE.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z AND
091500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 35.3S 65.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.3S 65.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.6S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 35.9S 65.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 999 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM THE ANIMATED IMAGERY
AND A 090008Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS, FROM A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) DUE TO LACK OF AVAILABLE DATA. TC 17S IS
SHOWING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
CONVECTION ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE WITH COOL (22-24 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND A
DIMINISHING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 17S IS ON THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z
IS 31 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_haleh.htm | Updated: 20 May 2019 |