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Tropical Cyclone IDAI
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Tropical Cyclone IDAI Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(INVEST 98S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2S 37.5E TO 20.1S 42.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3S 37.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 36.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 37.6E, APPROXIMATELY
287 NM NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081908Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS FAVORABLE (05-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM
(30 TO 31 CELSIUS) AND SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SURROUNDING
WATER. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL TRACK
BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE NEXT 18-36 HOURS AND
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092200Z.
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082151ZMAR2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 40.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 40.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.1S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.3S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 17.6S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.9S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.3S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 18.8S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.3S 34.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 40.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM
NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090338Z
WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDES CLEAR EVIDENCE THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED WHILE TRACKING BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, AND SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THIS WINDSAT
IMAGE AS WELL AS ON A 090618Z ASCAT-B AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE 25-30 KNOT WINDS WITH
AN ISOLATED 30-35 KNOT WIND OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. HOWEVER, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM FMEE AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A JET OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, AS
WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (28-29C). TC 18S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH BUT IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 36 AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH. THIS COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU
48 LEADING TO A SLOW OR POSSIBLY QUASISTATIONARY TRACK MOTION. AFTER
TAU 48, THE STR WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND TC
18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE, MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 108. DESPITE THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EARLY TAUS DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
IMPROVED AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 48. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
(HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND
WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTER LANDFALL,
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND
100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31
PGTW). THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 082200).//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 41.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 41.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.1S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.3S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.6S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 17.9S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.3S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.8S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.3S 34.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 41.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 318 NM
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091219Z SSMI
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM FMEE AND
PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A JET OVER
SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, AS WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST
(29C). TC 18S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUT IS FORECAST
TO SLOW AND RECURVE SHARPLY SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36 AS A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLOW OR POSSIBLY QUASISTATIONARY TRACK MOTION
THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE AND TC 18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 108. DESPITE THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY TAUS DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN BUT WITH IMPROVED AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 48.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 16.9S 42.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 42.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.0S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 17.1S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.5S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.8S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.5S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.1S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.9S 35.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 42.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 091847Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.0-2.5 (30-35 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, RESPECTIVELY, AS WELL AS
A 091845Z AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A JET TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, AS WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM SST (28-30 CELSIUS). TC 18S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH BUT IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND RECURVE SHARPLY SOUTHWESTWARD BY
TAU 36 AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLOW OR
POSSIBLY QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36,
THE STR WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND TC 18S WILL
ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE, MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY EAST
OF CONSENSUS AS THE SYSTEM HAS NOT REALIZED THE SOUTHEASTWARD TURN
PREDICTED IN MODELS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PAST TAU 36, NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIFURCATION WITH AFUM AND UKMET TRACKING FURTHER
SOUTH AND SLOWING, WHEREAS THE REMAINING MODELS PULL TC 18S FURTHER
NORTH AND INCREASE TRACK SPEED. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD
TURN IN THE EARLY TAUS AND THE BIFURCATION PAST TAU 36. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110
KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 42.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 42.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.4S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.7S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.0S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.4S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.1S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.3S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.7S 34.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 42.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 092244Z AMSU 183GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5-3.0 (35-45 KNOTS) FROM KNES, PGTW, AND FMEE AS
WELL AS A 100115Z AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A JET TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, AS WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM SST (28-30 CELSIUS). TC 18S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH BUT IS BEGINNING ITS RECURVE AND WILL COMPLETE ITS TURN TO
SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 24 AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE AND TC 18S WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
MOZAMBIQUE, MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FURTHER SOUTH AFTER TAU 24 AS THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE GRADUAL RECURVE BEFORE HEADING
BACK WESTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT
THE RECURVE, WITH PRIMARILY NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD BEFORE TAU 72. AFTER
TAU 72, SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PREDICTED TRACK SPEED ARISE AS TC
18S APPROACHES MOZAMBIQUE AND MAKES LANDFALL. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND WILL
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND
110300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 42.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 42.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 17.6S 42.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.9S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.3S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.8S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.6S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.9S 37.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.6S 34.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 42.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 318 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 100320Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING AND A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES, BASED ON A
100557Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING 45-50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND RANGE FROM 50 TO 58 KNOTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A JET OVER
SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, AS WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST
(29C). TC 18S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CONTINUES TO BUILD
TO THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE GRADUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU
48. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AND TC 18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 120. DESPITE THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY TAUS DUE TO THE
RAPIDLY EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12
UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 17.2S 43.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 43.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.5S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 17.9S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.4S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.9S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 19.4S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.6S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.1S 34.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 43.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 101203Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
AND A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND FMEE. A 100554Z BYU HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGE SHOWS A SWATH OF
45-50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY,
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND RANGE FROM
50 TO 58 KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY A JET OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, AS WELL AS LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (29C). TC 18S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY
EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE GRADUALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND TC 18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
TAU 108. DESPITE THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EARLY TAUS DUE TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN AND
TIMING OF THE RECURVE. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH
UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 24 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND WILL
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND
111500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 43.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 43.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.6S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.2S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.6S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.0S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.5S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.2S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.5S 35.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 43.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A SMALL, NEWLY FORMED EYE. A 101552Z WSAT 37GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0-4.5 (65-77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW,
RESPECTIVELY, AS WELL AS AN 101815Z AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 75
KNOTS AND A 101544Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 75 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, ENHANCED BY TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF
MADAGASCAR, AS WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (29-
30C). TC 18S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CONTINUES TO BUILD
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE GRADUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AND TC 18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE, MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96. HOWEVER, THE LAST
SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE PREDICTED AN IMMINENT SHARP TURN TO THE
SOUTH, WHICH HAS NOT YET BEEN REALIZED AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL
TRACKING EASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE
TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN AND DIFFICULTY IN
ACCURATELY TIMING THE RECURVE. EGRR AND AFUM RECURVE TO THE WEST
SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS, AND TURN THE TRACK NORTHWARD AT LATER TAUS
WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE REMAINING MODELS TRACK WESTWARD
TOWARDS MOZAMBIQUE WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72 AS NORTH-
SOUTH SPREAD BETWEEN GFS AND NAVGEM TO THE NORTH, AND ECMWF AND THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE TO THE SOUTH, INCREASES. THE NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD AT
TAU 120 IS 123 NM. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH
UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM.
INTENSIFICATION WILL BECOME MORE GRADUAL AFTER TAU 36 AS THE TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW MOVES TO THE EAST. TC
18S WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 43.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 43.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 17.6S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.1S 42.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.7S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.1S 41.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.5S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.9S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.0S 35.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 43.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A SMALL, RAGGED EYE. A 110048Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0-5.5 (90-102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES, RESPECTIVELY, AS WELL AS AN 110145Z AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF 105 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, ENHANCED BY
TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR, AS WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM SST (29-30C). TC 18S HAS BEEN ALMOST QUASISTATIONARY
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETELY
RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL BECOME
THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND TC 18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE. AFTER TAU 72, TC 18S
WILL GRADUALLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN. THE MODEL SPREAD HAS STAYED CONSISTENTLY
LARGE AT TAU 120. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH
UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 24. INTENSIFICATION WILL
BECOME MORE GRADUAL AFTER TAU 24 AS THE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST. TC 18S
WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARDS,
DIMINISHING OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. TC 18S
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 17.3S 43.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 43.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.7S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.3S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.9S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.3S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.4S 38.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.8S 36.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.0S 34.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 42.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED (50 KNOTS) OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 50 KNOTS AT 10/06Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY
OF 100 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 15NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS INDICATED IN A 110436Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM
ALL AGENCIES. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 105 TO 115
KNOTS SUGGESTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS IMMINENT. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (29C) AND
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 36. TC 18S IS
LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, TRACK MOTION
HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TRACK SPEEDS BY TAU 36 AS THE NER BUILDS TO THE EAST AND THE STR
STRENGTHENS. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND TC 18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, AS THE STR
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH, TC IDAI WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
MOZAMBIQUE NEAR TAU 96. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 24 WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 96 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
DEGRADE. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 96 DUE TO THE
INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OVER LAND. DESPITE THE COMPLEX,
EVOLVING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 100NM AT TAU 72. HOWEVER, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72 AS THE MODELS DIVERGE, THEREFORE
THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 42.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 42.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.2S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.9S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.4S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 19.6S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.7S 36.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.1S 34.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.0S 33.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 42.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 17NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS INDICATED IN A 111059Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM
ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (29C) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 36. TC 18S IS LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE
STR STRENGTHENS. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE AND TC 18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, AS THE STR SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTH, TC IDAI WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE NEAR
TAU 96. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
TO A PEAK OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 24 WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FROM
TAU 48 TO TAU 96 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DEGRADE. RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 96 DUE TO THE INCREASED FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS OVER LAND. DESPITE THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A SPREAD OF 60NM AT TAU 72. HOWEVER, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
AFTER TAU 72 AS THE MODELS DIVERGE, THEREFORE THERE IS MODERATE
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z,
120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 42.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 42.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.2S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.9S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.3S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.5S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.4S 36.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.4S 34.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.5S 32.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 42.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 15 NM WIDE EYE FEATURE IN ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111756Z GMI 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE GMI 89 GHZ CHANNEL ALSO SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY
BE UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
105 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS). TC 18S IS IN AN AREA WITH RADIAL
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS
COMPLEX, WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH CONTRIBUTING TO THE SYSTEM
REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY. IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE STR SHOULD
BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD. A NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED AFTER TAU 72 AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE UNTIL TAU 36 BEFORE
DIMINISHED OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, LENDING TO FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 111800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND
122100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 18.0S 42.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 42.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.7S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.3S 40.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 19.6S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.8S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.3S 35.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.3S 33.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.4S 32.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 42.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF AN APPROXIMATELY
15 NM WIDE EYE, HOWEVER, THE EYE HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY FILLED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. NOTABLY, RECENT FRAMES ALSO SHOW SURROUNDING
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED AND DRY AIR IS WRAPPING INTO THE
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE POORLY-DEFINED 15 NM EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
T5.0-T5.5 (90-102 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH
WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND
LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY THE DRY
AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION. COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES
FROM A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH ARE CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD. AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, THE
ALONG-TRACK SPEED SHOULD INCREASE AS THE STR BECOMES DOMINANT. TC
18S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NORTH OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE PRIOR TO
TAU 72 ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BECAUSE THE STR IS EXPECTED TO RE-
ORIENT. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
SOME INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, DIMINISHED
OUTFLOW SHOULD CAUSE SLOW WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL AT WHICH POINT TC
18S SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT THE SPREAD INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 48 AND FAIR CONFIDENCE AS
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z,
121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 41.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 41.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.8S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.3S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.6S 38.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.7S 37.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.1S 34.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.1S 33.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.6S 34.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 41.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AS EVIDENCED BY A
WARMING CENTRAL CONVECTION; OTHERWISE, THE OVERALL STRUCTURE REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A
CLOUD-FILLED EYE IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A DEFINED
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE NEAR-SURFACE 120248Z SSMIS COLORIZED 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE
WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, RADIAL OUTFLOW,
AND LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DRY
AIR FLOWING IN FROM CONTINENTAL AFRICA. TC 18S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST, CENTERED OVER MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 24, A SECONDARY STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD
THEN NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 72, AS THE STR BUILDS. THE OVERALL
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSITY INCREASE UP TO
AND SUSTAINED AT 100 KNOTS FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, A RAPID
DECAY WILL ENSUE AFTER TC IDAI MAKES LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120, MOSTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 41.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 41.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.2S 40.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 19.6S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.7S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.6S 36.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.9S 33.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.7S 32.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.8S 34.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 41.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 219 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE WITH COMPACT RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEEP AND
SYMMETRIC CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
A CLOUD-FILLED EYE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY DRY AIR FLOWING IN FROM CONTINENTAL AFRICA. TC 18S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, CENTERED OVER MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 24, A
SECONDARY STR TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE
CYCLONE WESTWARD, THEN AFTER TAU 72, NORTHWARD THEN EASTWARD AS A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH ASSUMES FINAL STEERING. THE
OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION UP TO 110
KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, A RAPID DECAY WILL ENSUE AFTER TC IDAI
MAKES LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120
MOSTLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME MODELS, INCLUDING ECMWF, EGRR, AND
NAVGEM CONTINUING WITH A WESTWARD TRACK. DESPITE THE MODEL SPLIT AT
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TRACK THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 40.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 40.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.4S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.7S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.8S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.7S 35.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.8S 33.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.0S 32.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.7S 33.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 40.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188 NM NORTH
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON A 14 NM WIDE RAGGED EYE IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS HEDGED
BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0-T5.5
(90-102 KTS) AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE EVIDENT
IN EIR IMAGERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE OVERALL WITH RADIAL
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DRY AIR
FLOWING IN FROM THE SURROUNDING LANDMASSES. THROUGH TAU 72, TC 18S
WILL TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE INTENSITY TO REACH 120 KTS BY TAU 36 BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY, FALLING BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD BY
TAU 120. AFTER TAU 72, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND
A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. AT THIS POINT, THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION MAY TRACK EASTWARD, BACK TO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT UNTIL TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72,
TRACK UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS ECMWF CONTINUES TO
DEPICT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE OTHER MEMBERS EITHER
TURN THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD OR, IN THE CASE OF GFS, TURN IT BACK
EASTWARD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE EASTWARD TURN BECAUSE
SEVERAL MODELS DEPICT THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY TURN THE SYSTEM EASTWARD. BASED ON THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
THROUGH TAU 72, AND LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z,
130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 19.3S 40.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 40.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 19.5S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.7S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.7S 36.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.5S 34.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.8S 33.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.2S 32.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 39.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM NORTH
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TC 18S HAS DEGRADED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR
INTRUSION RESULTING IN A DISCONTINUOUS AND RAGGED EYEWALL. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T5.0 (FMEE) TO T5.5 (PGTW), TOGETHER WITH THE RAGGED
EYE, SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS). HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF
DRY AIR FROM SURROUNDING LANDMASSES AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED OUTFLOW ARE
ACTING TO CONSTRAIN THE INTENSIFICATION OF TC 18S. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THEN WEST
AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHILE MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
WITH SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 100 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL AROUND
TAU 72. THEREAFTER, RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE, WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER AS
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 39.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 39.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.6S 38.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.7S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.6S 35.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.3S 33.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.4S 32.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 39.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH
COMPACT RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A RAGGED 20NM CLOUD-FILLED
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE IN
THE MSI LOOP, ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT TILT BY LINING UP WITH A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 130426Z GPM 36GHZ NEAR-SURFACE COLORIZED
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0/90KTS TO
T5.5/102KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DRY AIR FLOWING IN
FROM CONTINENTAL AFRICA. TC 18S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AFTER
TAU 36, THE STR WILL REORIENT AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MAY
STRENGTHEN TC 18S UP TO 100KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS; AFTERWARD,
LAND INTERACTION WITH MOZAMBIQUE, ESPECIALLY AFTER LANDFALL, WILL
RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36 THEN SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD
AFTERWARD. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST UP TO TAU 36, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//
========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 018
WTXS32 PGTW 131500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 19.5S 39.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 39.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.6S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.6S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.4S 34.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.9S 33.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.0S 32.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 38.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 019
WTXS32 PGTW 132100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 38.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 38.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.6S 37.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.5S 35.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.2S 34.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.7S 32.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.8S 30.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 38.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 37.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 37.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.7S 36.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.6S 34.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.2S 33.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.5S 32.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.6S 29.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 37.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM WITH A BROAD (25-30NM) EYEWALL. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE IN THE MSI
LOOP AND LINES UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 132318Z
AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED ON THE
LOW SIDE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5-6.0 (102-115KTS) FROM KNES AND
PGTW, RESPECTIVELY, AS WELL AS A 132221Z SATCON OF 109KT AND A
140045Z ADT OF 102KT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (05-10KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED
BY THE TROUGH TO THE EAST IS NOW BECOMING DETACHED. FURTHERMORE, DRY
AIR IS FLOWING INTO TC 18S FROM CONTINENTAL AFRICA, FURTHER
DIMINSHING ITS DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. TC 18S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL REORIENT AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL SUSTAIN
TC 18S AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS; AFTERWARD,
LAND INTERACTION WITH MOZAMBIQUE, ESPECIALLY AFTER LANDFALL PAST TAU
24, WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36 THEN SPREAD
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARD. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 36, THEN GOOD CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 19.8S 37.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 37.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.8S 35.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.5S 34.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.0S 33.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.5S 31.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 36.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 221 NM
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 140358Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
EYEWALL CONVECTION BUT CONTINUE TO DEPICT A 45NM ROUND EYE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW DESPITE THE WEAKENING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST. SST VALUES (27-28C) HAVE
COOLED SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
THROUGH TAU 24 BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
24 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18, TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO
INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS
35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 19.9S 36.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 36.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.7S 34.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.3S 33.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.8S 31.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.3S 30.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 35.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 141129Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
EYEWALL CONVECTION BUT CONTINUE TO DEPICT A 45NM ROUND EYE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO 5.5 (102 KNOTS). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW DESPITE THE WEAKENING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST. SST VALUES (27-28C) HAVE
COOLED SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
THROUGH TAU 12 BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
12 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 BUT
DIVERGES AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS OVERLAND. OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR TAU 12, TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU
48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 35.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 35.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.2S 34.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.7S 33.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.3S 31.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.7S 30.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 35.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 141631Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF EYEWALL CONVECTION BUT CONTINUES TO DEPICT A 40NM ROUND
EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED ON THE HIGH SIDE OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS)
FROM FMEE, KNES, AND PGTW, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A SATCON ESTIMATE OF
90 KNOTS AND AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 97 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH CONDUCIVE SST VALUES (27-28C) AND LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DESPITE WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 18S HAS BEGUN TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 BUT DIVERGES
SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND AFTER TAU 6. OVERALL, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL, TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, DISSIPATING BY TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 34.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 34.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.0S 33.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.6S 32.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.2S 31.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 34.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 142252Z SSMIS GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKENING
SYSTEM WITH A SMALL, RAGGED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED ON
THE SMALL EYE IN EIR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KNOTS DUE TO THE DIMINISHING EYEWALL
CONVECTION AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
INDICATES MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW (10-
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, TC 18S HAS MADE LANDFALL AND WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN. TC 18S HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 BUT DIVERGES
SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS OVER LAND. OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 36. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 22 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_idai.htm | Updated: 20 May 2019 |