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Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 202130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3S 60.6E TO 15.9S 60.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 60.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 61.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 61.2E, APPROXIMATELY 512
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 201343Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 200548Z PARTIAL METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. 93S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, WARM (29 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S
WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD, RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TO WARNING CRITERIA BETWEEN
TAU 24 AND 48, BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212130Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212121ZMAR19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 62.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 62.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 15.6S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.5S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.0S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.6S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.7S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.4S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.0S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 62.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 449 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY A 220042Z 91GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND INTO A CENTRAL
LOW REFLECTIVITY AREA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW. TC
22S IS FORECAST TO TRACK IN AN S-SHAPED CURVE. THE INITIAL SOUTHWARD
TRACK DIRECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 12, AFTER WHICH TC 22S WILL
TRACK BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. BEYOND TAU 48 THE SYSTEM
WILL RECURVE AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE IS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERTIME, THE NER WILL TRANSIT TO THE
WEST, EVENTUALLY POSITIONING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING
THE S-SHAPED TRACK. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK SHAPE HOWEVER, THERE ARE LARGE VARIATIONS
IN THE LOCATION OF THE TRACK, LEADING TO A TAU 120 SPREAD OF AROUND
400NM. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 212130).//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 62.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 62.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.3S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.0S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.7S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.4S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.1S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.6S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.0S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 62.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND A 220506Z AMSU 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW, AND IS
ABOVE THE ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) FROM KNES. TC 22S HAS TRACKED
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD, CAUGHT BETWEEN THE COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE NEAR TERM, TC 22S IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE MIDLEVEL RIDGING
TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
TO THE NORTH OF TC 22S, ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC
22S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT ALMOST RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS), REACHING A PEAK OF 95 KTS AT TAU 72, WHEN A PASSING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS ON THE HIGH END OF AVAILABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AS THERE IS NOTHING DETRIMENTAL IN THE
ENVIRONMENT TO HINDER INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE S-SHAPED TRACK, BUT THERE
ARE LARGE VARIATIONS IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AND THE INFLECTION POINTS
WHEN THE TRACK CURVES. GFS AND NAVGEM ARE TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, AND DEPICT A DUE SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM,
WHICH SEEMS UNREALISTIC DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH ON THIS STILL-WEAK SYSTEM. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
IS FASTER THAN CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM, AND SLOWER IN ALONG-
TRACK SPEED IN LATER TAUS. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 15.0S 62.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 62.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.7S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.4S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.9S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.4S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.9S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.4S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.8S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 62.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS NOW OBSCURED BY A GROWING
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE BURGEONING CDO FEATURE, AND IS ABOVE THE KNES
AND PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). TC
22S HAS TRACKED SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD, CAUGHT BETWEEN THE COMPETING
STEERING INFLUENCES OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE NEAR TERM, TC 22S IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE MIDLEVEL RIDGING TO
THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO
THE NORTH OF TC 22S, ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THOUGH IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO CONSOLIDATE THUS FAR, TC 22S IS FORECAST
TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
ALMOST RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS),
REACHING A PEAK OF 100 KTS AT TAU 72, WHEN A PASSING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE JTWC
FORECAST INTENSITY IS ON THE HIGH END OF AVAILABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE, CLOSE TO THE HWRF SOLUTION, AS THERE IS NOTHING
DETRIMENTAL IN THE ENVIRONMENT TO HINDER INTENSIFICATION UNTIL VWS
BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 96, LEADING TO SLIGHT WEAKENING AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN WITH THE S-SHAPED TRACK, BUT
THERE REMAIN VARIATIONS IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AND THE INFLECTION
POINTS WHEN THE TRACK CURVES. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED BEHIND AND
WEST OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO SLOW
RECENTLY OBSERVED MOVEMENT, AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
IN LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.1S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.5S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.9S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.5S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.1S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.9S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.4S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 221738Z 89 GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IS MAINLY LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TC 22S IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS
EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW TC 22S TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 24. TC 22S IS
TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TC 22S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36.
BEYOND TAU 36, THE NER WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND
ALLOW TC 22S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE SHARPLY DIVERGES AFTER THAT. BY TAU 72 THE MODEL SPREAD IS
NEARLY 255 NM AND BY TAU 120 THE SPREAD IS 305 NM. DUE TO THE WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.4S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.8S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.3S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.0S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.6S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.3S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.0S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 222351Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM FMEE AND AN ADT CI OF T3.6 (57
KNOTS). TC 22S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO
10 KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS
BY TAU 24. THE 222351Z 37 GHZ COLOR MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A
CYAN RING, AN INDICATOR OF POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TC 22S IS
SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 22S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND
TAU 24, THE NER WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW
TC 22S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE SHARPLY DIVERGES AFTER THAT. BY TAU 72 THE MODEL SPREAD IS
NEARLY 290 NM AND BY TAU 120 THE SPREAD IS 380 NM. DUE TO THE WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 62.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 62.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.6S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.1S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.6S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.1S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.8S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.0S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.9S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 62.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 823 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS AT TIMES OBSCURED BY
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND
IS BASED ON A 230446Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED LLCC, AND A 230516Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING A TIGHT
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWS A SWATH OF 50-54 KT WIND
BARBS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. HOWEVER, DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE LARGELY INCREASED, WITH FMEE AND KNES AT
T3.5 (45 KTS), AND PGTW AND FIMP AT T4.0 (65 KTS). A 230156Z SATCON
ESTIMATE IS 59 KTS, AND A 230615Z AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE IS 57
KTS, CLOSE TO THE PGTW INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. TC 22S IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR
29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 100 KTS AT 72 HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING
VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS TC 22S MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AND SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
AT TAU 120. TC 22S IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE
POSITIONED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 22S WILL TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24, THE NER WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 22S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND
THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SHARPLY DIVERGES
AFTER THAT. BY TAU 120, THE SPREAD IS 300 NM. NAVGEM IS A FAR
SOUTHERN OUTLIER, AND GALWEM AND UKMET ARE NORTHERN OUTLIERS. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 16.7S 61.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 61.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.1S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.5S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.9S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.5S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.0S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.4S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.7S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 856 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS CYCLING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE ON THE LLCC IN MSI IMAGERY WHICH IS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED
BY CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) FROM FMEE, FIMP, PGTW.
A 230943Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 65 KTS, WHILE A 231215Z AUTOMATED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE IS T3.6 (57 KTS), MORE IN LINE WITH THE
PGTW ESTIMATE. TC 22S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 100 KTS AT 72 HOURS. AFTER TAU
72, INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS TC 22S MOVES UNDER UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AND SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION AT TAU 120. TC 22S IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH
AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 22S WILL TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24, THE NER WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 22S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND
THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
TIMING OF THE RECURVE, THEN DIVERGES SHARPLY BOTH IN NORTH-SOUTH
SPREAD AND ALONG-TRACK MOTION. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 61.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 61.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.2S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.6S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.1S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.8S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.1S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.9S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 22.2S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 61.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 231745Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBLONG LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE BANDING OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A WEAKER BAND OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (28-29C) ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
4.0-4.5 (65-77 KNOTS) AS WELL AS A 231715Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 62
KNOTS. A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, REACHING AN
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
TO 105 KTS AT 72 HOURS. AFTER TAU 96, INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE
ALOFT AS TC 22S MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A
WEAKENING TREND AND SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 120. TC 22S IS
SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE, THEN DIVERGES SHARPLY WITH A
290NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z,
241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 61.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 61.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.4S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.9S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.5S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.1S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.3S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.2S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.7S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A DEVELOPING EYE. A
232341Z GMI 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE EYEWALL WITH A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (28-29C) ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM
ALL AGENCIES AS WELL AS A 232052Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 74 KNOTS. A
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF
95 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 115 KTS
AT 72 HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS
TC 22S MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING
TREND AND SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. TC 22S IS SLOWLY
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE, THEN DIVERGES SHARPLY WITH A
320NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z,
242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 61.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 61.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.2S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.8S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.3S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.0S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.3S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.3S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 23.1S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE. A
240454Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE EYEWALL WITH A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH NEAR RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (28-
29C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS DUE TO THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE, BETWEEN A RANGE
OF MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T4.5 (77
KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KTS), ALTHOUGH THE 240417Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS
LOWER, AT 69 KTS. A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING,
REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 115 KTS AT 72 HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING
VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS TC 22S MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AND SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
BY TAU 120. TC 22S HAS BACKTRACKED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS,
UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE NORTH. THE NER WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH, CAUSING TC
22S TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE DID NOT CAPTURE THE CURRENT QUASISTATIONARY PERIOD AND
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERS IN NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST SPREAD AS WELL AS ALONG-
TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED BEHIND AND WEST OF
CONSENSUS, TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 61.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 61.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.4S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.1S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.9S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.6S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.8S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.0S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 24.0S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 61.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION MOSTLY PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND OCCASIONALLY THE BANDING WRAPS AROUND
TO CREATE A FORMATIVE BUT EPHEMERAL EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE MSI IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 241213Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (28-29C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS, BETWEEN
A RANGE OF MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T4.5
(77 KNOTS) TO T5.5 (102 KTS), WHILE A 240924Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 88
KTS. A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, REACHING AN
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
TO 105 KTS AT 72 HOURS. THE PREDICTED PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN SCALED
BACK, AS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS SLACKENED. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING
VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS TC 22S MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AND SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
BY TAU 96. TC 22S HAS MOVED SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE NER WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH, CAUSING TC 22S TO
ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERS IN NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST SPREAD AS WELL AS ALONG-
TRACK SPEED, WITH A 295 NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS HEDGED CLOSED TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 61.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 61.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.7S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.4S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.1S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.7S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.4S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.4S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.9S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 62.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 10NM IRREGULAR EYE. A 241724Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A RAGGED CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER SMAP IMAGE (24/0152Z) FROM REMSS INDICATED 85-
90 KNOT WINDS AND, DESPITE THE WEAK EYE FEATURE, DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE TO T5.0-5.5 (90-102 KNOTS),
THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS. ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE VALUES OF 5.3 (ABOUT 95 KNOTS) AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 81-93 KNOTS ALSO SUPPORT THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. TC 22S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
WITHIN THIS STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE
TO THIS COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE AND NAVGEM INDICATING FASTER TRACK
SPEEDS INTO THE STR, WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY. ECMWF AND THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE INDICATE A SLOWER TRACK. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
SUPPORT HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A WIDE SPREAD
OF SOLUTIONS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH FAVORS SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND IS POSITIONED SLOWER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO
A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 36 TO TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 31 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 62.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 62.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.0S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.6S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.3S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.7S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.5S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.7S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.1S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN INCIPIENT EYE. A
250011Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A BROAD MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0-5.5 (90-102 KNOTS). TC
22S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WITHIN THIS STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS
TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THIS COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE AND
NAVGEM INDICATING FASTER TRACK SPEEDS INTO THE STR, WHICH APPEARS
UNLIKELY. ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATE A SLOWER TRACK. THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH FAVORS SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND IS
POSITIONED SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 22S IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 36 TO TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 72, SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z,
252100Z AND 260300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 62.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 62.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.4S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.3S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.9S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.5S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.3S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.3S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 25.2S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 62.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN INCIPIENT EYE. A
250433Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE THAT
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0-5.5 (90-102 KNOTS) AND A 250405Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 98 KTS, BASED ON THE NASCENT EYE AND ORGANIZING EYEWALL.
TC 22S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WITHIN THIS STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS
TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THIS COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE AND
NAVGEM INDICATING FASTER TRACK SPEEDS INTO THE STR, WHICH APPEARS
UNLIKELY. ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATE A SLOWER TRACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLOWER THAN
AND WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION,
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO A
PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 36 TO TAU 48, DUE TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING
ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTER TAU 72, SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 96 AS IT MOVES UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 62.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 62.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.1S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.8S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.6S 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.9S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.8S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.7S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 26.4S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 63.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DEEPENING EYEWALL
SURROUNDING A RAGGED BUT PERSISTENT 20 NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0-5.5 (90-102 KNOTS), BETWEEN A
250953Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 97 KTS AND AN 251145Z AUTOMATED DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T5.8 (110 KTS). TC 22S IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM
(28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 22S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WITHIN THIS STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, CAUSING THE
STR TO THE EAST TO RE-ORIENT. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. DUE TO THIS COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE DYNAMIC MODELS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE AND NAVGEM INDICATING
FASTER TRACK SPEEDS INTO THE STR, WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLOWER THAN AND WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 12 IN THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, SLOW MOTION IN A LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL. AFTER TAU
72, SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AT
TAU 96 AS IT MOVES UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 18.5S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.3S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.1S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.6S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.0S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 22.3S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 24.6S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 26.7S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 63.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
NORTH OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN OVERALL STRONG CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE INCLUDING A RAGGED PERSISTENT 20 NM EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE, ADJUSTED
FOR TILT BY LINING UP WITH DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURES IN
THE 251437Z CORIOLIS AND 251703Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5/102KTS
FROM PGTW ANS KNES. TC 22S IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 22S IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL TURN
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 115KTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, IT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AROUND TAU 96, IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 19.1S 63.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 63.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.8S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.3S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.8S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.2S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.6S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.8S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 27.1S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 63.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 39 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED AS RAIN BANDS
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTION
WITH A DEFINED 20-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE, ADJUSTED FOR TILT BY LINING UP WITH A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 252237Z SSMIS NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ PASS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T5.5/102KTS TO T6.0/115KTS FROM KNES AND PGTW, RESPECTIVELY. TC 22S
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER
TAU 48, THE TC WILL TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSUMES STEERING. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 120KTS BY TAU 24.
AFTERWARD, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS.
AROUND TAU 96, IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS
IT APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY
DIVERGE TO OVER 650NM BY TAU 120, OFFERING VARYING SOLUTIONS RELATIVE
TO THE TRANSITION IN STEERING MECHANISMS WITH ECMWF ON THE EXTREME
RIGHT AND AFUM ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE. IN VIEW OF THIS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 19.2S 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 64.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.8S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.2S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.7S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.2S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.7S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 25.1S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 27.6S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 64.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 10-NM EYE IN
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII ARE SUPPORTED BY A 260526Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5-T6.0 (102-115 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING TC 22S IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
IS FAVORABLE AT 28-29 CELSIUS. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BY TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CAUSE A POLEWARD TURN IN THE TRACK. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO MAINTAIN STRONG
INTENSITY, WITH THE PEAK ESTIMATED AT 115 KTS BY TAU 12, UNTIL TAU
48 WHEN INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. BY TAU 96, TC
22S SHOULD BEGIN TO UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BEGINS
INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE SPREAD EXCEEDING 375 NM BY TAU
120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(VERONICA) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM (WTXS32 PGTW).//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 19.5S 65.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 65.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.9S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.3S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.7S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.3S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.2S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.6S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.7S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 65.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 86 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A 15-NM WIDE EYE AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING THE MSI AND
AN EYE FEATURE IN A 261146Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 22S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
AFTER TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE
TRACK POLEWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BY TAU 96,
INCREASED BAROCLINIC INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TC 22S TO BEGIN
TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 100 KTS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, HIGH VWS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING AND THE INTENSITY SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 45 KTS BY TAU 120.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD (OVER 450 NM BY TAU 12) IN THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH ECMWF AND GALWEM BEING THE WESTERNMOST AND
EASTERNMOST MEMBERS, RESPECTIVELY. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) FOR FINAL WARNING
ON THAT SYSTEM (WTXS32 PGTW).//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 65.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 65.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.1S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.4S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.8S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.3S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.3S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 25.1S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 27.6S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 65.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN OVERALL INTENSE CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE WITH RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT AND
SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A PINHOLE 05-NM EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE, ADJUSTED
FOR TILT BY LINING UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 261418Z
CORIOLIS NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115KTS IS
BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. TC
22S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER
TAU 36, THE TC WILL TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSUMES STEERING. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 120KTS
BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN MAINLY DUE TO
INCREASING VWS. AROUND TAU 96, IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
NUMERICAL MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE TO OVER 450NM BY TAU 120,
OFFERING VARYING SOLUTIONS RELATIVE TO THE TRANSITION IN STEERING
MECHANISMS WITH AEMN ON THE RIGHT AND AFUM ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE
ENVELOPE. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 66.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 66.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.4S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.7S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.2S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.8S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.5S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 25.6S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 28.7S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 66.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM EAST OF
PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN OVERALL INTENSE
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT
AND SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A PINHOLE 04-NM EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE,
ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT TILT BY LINING UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
IN THE 262300Z SSMIS NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 115KTS IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED EIR SIGNATURE. TC 22S IS IN A LOW
(10-15 KT) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AREA DUE TO THE STORM
MOTION BEING IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. OUTFLOW REMAINS
EXCELLENT, ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AND CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE TC WILL TURN
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST SLOWLY ASSUMES STEERING. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROMOTE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 120KTS BY TAU 12.
AFTERWARD, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS.
AROUND TAU 96, IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS
IT APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY
DIVERGE IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS AND ACROSS TRACK TO A SPAN OF OVER
350NM BY TAU 120, OFFERING VARYING SOLUTIONS RELATIVE TO THE
TRANSITION IN STEERING MECHANISMS WITH ECMWF ON THE RIGHT AND NAVGEM
ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z,
272100Z AND 280300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 20.2S 66.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 66.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.5S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.8S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.3S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.1S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 23.9S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 27.4S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 31.3S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 66.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN APPROXIMATELY 15-NM DIAMETER EYE IN
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
110 KTS IS BETWEEN PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T5.5 (102 KTS) AND T6.0 (115 KTS), RESPECTIVELY. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 22S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AFTER TAU
24, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE TRACK TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE SLOW WEAKENING IN
INTENSITY UNTIL TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, HIGH VWS WILL LEAD TO MORE
RAPID WEAKENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BY TAU 96,
INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TC 22S TO
BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE WEST AND COME INTO GENERALLY
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES, HOWEVER, TWO MEMBERS
OF THE CONSENSUS (GALWEM AND UKMET) DO NOT PREDICT THE ALONG-TRACK
SPEED TO INCREASE IN THE LATER TAUS. TO OFFSET THESE OUTLIERS, THE
TAU 96 AND 120 JTWC TRACK FORECAST POSITIONS ARE PLACED FURTHER
POLEWARD THAN THE CONSENSUS TRACK POSITIONS. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST IS LOW DUE TO THE HIGH SPREAD CAUSED BY THE OUTLIERS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 66.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 66.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.6S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.1S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.7S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.5S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 24.6S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 28.2S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 32.6S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 67.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS AN APPROXIMATELY 15-NM DIAMETER RAGGED EYE AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE IN A 271133Z SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
DVORAK FIX INTENSITIES BETWEEN T5.5 AND T6.0 (102-115 KTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL OVERALL WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 22S IS
TRACKING ALONG BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). IN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, THE STR WILL BECOME DOMINANT AND CAUSE A
POLEWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK. AFTER TURNING POLEWARD, THE ALONG-TRACK
SPEED WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. BY TAU 96, INTERACTION WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TC 22S TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION
INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. TC 22S HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY BUT
A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN, SLOWLY AT FIRST THEN MORE
RAPIDLY, AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL VWS BECOMES MORE HOSTILE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GALWEM AND UKMET, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GOOD
ALONG-TRACK SPEED BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CROSS TRACK SPREAD.
GALWEM AND UKMET FOLLOW THE OTHER MEMBERS EARLY IN THE FORECAST BUT
FAIL TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AFTER MAKING THE TURN. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS FOR TAU 96 AND 120
TO MORE CLOSELY FOLLOW THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. BASED ON HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS
37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z./
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 20.5S 67.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 67.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.9S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.6S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.3S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.1S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 25.2S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 29.0S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 34.0S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 67.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
A RECENT PGTW SATELLITE EYE FIX AND A 271734Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF RECENT
AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND CIMSS AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TC 22S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT AIDED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS TURNING POLEWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL
BECOME THE PRIOR STEERING MECHANISM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
22S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY IN THE NEAR-TERM AS STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OFFSETS THE IMPACT OF INCREASING WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STEADIER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM CONTENDS WITH INCREASING VWS. BY TAU 96,
TC 22S WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CUT OFF FROM
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET AND UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.
TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU
120. THE CYCLONE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL, BUT AFTER TAU 120. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST
GUIDANCE. THE UKMET AND GALWEM MODELS PREDICT A SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER,
MEANDERING TRACK RELATIVE TO THE OTHER CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
REMAINING MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK SPEED,
BUT NOT DIRECTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS, WHICH BEST REFLECT THE ANTICIPATED
EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN AS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE EAST. GIVEN NOTED MODEL FORECAST SPREAD, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z,
281500Z AND 282100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 67.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 67.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.1S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.8S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.7S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.6S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 26.0S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 30.1S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 35.2S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 67.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
A MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT IN 272247Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGERY. THE
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. TC 22S HAS
MAINTAINED INTENSITY WHILE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING
EYE, NOW ESTIMATED AT AROUND 30 NM IN DIAMETER. STORM INTENSITY HAS
BEEN SUPPORTED BY PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT,
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST. DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD, INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY DRIVE
STEADY WEAKENING AS TC 22S TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY TAU 96, TC 22S IS EXPECTED
TO MERGE WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CUT OFF FROM THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLY JET AND UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. THE MAJORITY OF
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE UKMET AND GALWEM SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SLOWER POLEWARD TRACK AND TRANSITION THAN THE
OTHER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, AND THE HWRF AND COAMPS-TC DEPICT A TRACK
FARTHER TO THE EST OF THE PRIMARY GROUPING. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRIMARY GROUPING, CONSISTING OF THE
NCEP, ECMWF AND NAVGEM MODELS, AS WELL AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN THE NOTED, PERSISTENT MODEL SPREAD,
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z,
282100Z AND 290300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 67.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 67.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.6S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.3S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.1S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.0S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 26.4S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 30.5S 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 35.9S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A THICK EYEWALL MOSTLY SURROUNDING A RAGGED EYE.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE, AS
WELL AS A 280147Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 114 KTS. TC 22S HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSITY WHILE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS).
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL COMPETE WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THAT TROUGH TO
PRODUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS TC 22S TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST, AS ECMWF
MAINTAINS THE STR IN SPITE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND PUSHES TC
22S WEST IMMEDIATELY, WHILE GFS, GALWEM, NAVGEM, AND UKMET WEAKEN
THE STEERING RIDGE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, ALLOWING FOR A SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM. THE STR WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST, PUSHING TC 22S TO
A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND ACCELERATING IT. BY TAU 96, TC
22S IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CUT OFF FROM
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET AND UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.
AFTER TAU 48, UKMET AND GALWEM VEER DRAMATICALLY WESTWARD AND BECOME
THE WESTWARD OUTLIERS AND ALSO PREDICT A SLOWER ALONG-TRACK MOTION
THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER MODELS. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE
CENTERED AROUND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH GFS SLIGHTLY RIGHT
OF TRACK WITH A FASTER ALONG-TRACK MOTION. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 67.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 67.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.2S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.0S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.9S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 24.8S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.2S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 32.0S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 37.2S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 67.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 584 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE SURROUNDED BY AN INCREASINGLY
RAGGED EYEWALL. THE CURRENT POSITION IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE CLOUD-
FILLED EYE IN THE MSI IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 281106Z GMI
37GHZ IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE, AS
WELL AS A 280857Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 121 KTS. HOWEVER, THE JTWC
INTENSITY IS ABOVE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND FIMP OF T5.5
(102 KTS). TC 22S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY WHILE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
EAST IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE (26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD,
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE WITH
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THAT TROUGH TO PRODUCE A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND AS TC 22S TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE STEERING STR IN THE SHORT TERM, ALLOWING FOR
A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH TAU 24. THE STR WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST, PUSHING TC
22S TO A SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND
ACCELERATING IT AFTER TAU 24. BY TAU 96, TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CUT OFF FROM THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
JET, AS WELL AS CROSS THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SST ISOTHERM, AND
UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 22S WILL BECOME A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD ONCE IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, AFTER TAU 120. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF HWRF, AN EXTREME OUTLIER TO THE EAST, AND THE
PREVIOUS RUNS OF UKMET AND ECMWF, WHICH ARE WESTERN OUTLIERS, MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK. THE CURRENT
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS
38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 22.0S 67.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S 67.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.8S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.6S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.6S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 25.7S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.6S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 33.1S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 38.2S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 67.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 599 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE DATA FIX FROM
PGTW AND A COMPACT CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 281712Z METOP-B 89 GHZ
MHS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AND A 281604Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 94 KNOTS. TC 22S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM
HAS STEADILY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND THE
PREVIOUSLY-OBSERVED RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUING TRACKING POLEWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 72, THE
CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER A CUTOFF MIDLATITUDE LOW DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES WITH THIS
LOW. FOLLOWING THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND
BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TAU 96 DUE TO PERSISTENT VWS AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER. HOWEVER,
FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICIPATED
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION WILL ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST
SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THE IS SIGNIFICANT LATERAL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
LEFTMOST MEMBER OF THE CONSENSUS, THE UKMET GLOBAL MODEL, AND THE
RIGHTMOST MEMBER, GFS. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE MODEL FORECAST ENVELOPE, AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN MODEL-BASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK DIRECTION, CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 22.4S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.3S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.1S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.1S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 26.3S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 29.7S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 34.1S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 67.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 598 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA, INCLUDING A 282234Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH AGENCY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO
T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND COMMENSURATE AUTOMATED DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TC 22S IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS IMPACTED THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, YIELDING DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND STEADILY DECREASING
INTENSITY. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUING TRACKING GENERALLY
POLEWARD ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AROUND TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION FROM A
TROPICAL TO SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH EXPANSIVE, ASYMMETRIC WIND
RADII AS IT MERGES WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 96. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE FORECAST DUE TO VWS AND COOLER WATER BUT WILL NOT
KILL THE STORM. INSTEAD, BAROCLINIC SUPPORT WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO
MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AS IT COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
LATERAL SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST
LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL FORECAST ENVELOPE, AND CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN MODEL-BASED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK DIRECTION, CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS
33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 23.0S 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 68.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.8S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.7S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 25.7S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 26.6S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 30.6S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 34.3S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 68.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 622 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS STRUGGLING CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED
AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND
AN EXTRAPOLATED 290218Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS), BUT IN
AGREEMENT WITH A 290320Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 70 KTS. TC 22S IS
TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A STEERING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE SYSTEMS STRUCTURE, LEADING TO RAPID
WEAKENING. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUING TRACKING GENERALLY
POLEWARD ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS INCLUDING INCREASING VWS, COOLER SSTS AS THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM AT TAU 72, AND DIMINISHING
OUTFLOW FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED ABOVE THE SYSTEM. AROUND
TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION FROM A TROPICAL TO
SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH EXPANSIVE, ASYMMETRIC, GALE FORCE WIND RADII
AS IT MERGES WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 96, TC
22S WILL BE THOROUGHLY EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE JET AND
WILL TRANSITION FROM SUBTROPICAL TO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT LATERAL SPREAD
AMONG THE MEMBERS. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED WEST OF
CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN THE NEAR TERM GIVEN THE
STRONG STR TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL PUSH TC 22S DUE SOUTHWARD. IN
LATER TAUS, THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND
300900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 23.4S 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 68.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.2S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.1S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 26.1S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.3S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 31.7S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 35.2S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 68.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS STRUGGLING CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC IN THE MSI
LOOP AND AN EXTRAPOLATED 291106Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THERE IS A NOTICEABLE TILT EMPHASIZING THE SHEAR BETWEEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED 37GHZ IMAGE AND THE SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS ALIGNED WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS), BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW A 291159Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 69 KTS. TC 22S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ABOVE 30 KTS CONTINUES
TO DISRUPT THE SYSTEMS STRUCTURE, LEADING TO RAPID WEAKENING. TC
22S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUING TRACKING GENERALLY POLEWARD ALONG THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE, WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AS THE STR BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST, FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS INCLUDING INCREASING VWS, COOLER SSTS AS THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM AT TAU 72, AND DIMINISHING
OUTFLOW FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED ABOVE THE SYSTEM. AROUND
TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION FROM A TROPICAL TO
SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH EXPANSIVE, ASYMMETRIC, GALE FORCE WIND RADII
AS IT MERGES WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 96, TC
22S WILL BE THOROUGHLY EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE JET AND
WILL TRANSITION FROM SUBTROPICAL TO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT LATERAL SPREAD
AMONG THE MEMBERS. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED IN
AGREEMENT WITH OR JUST EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVED SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IMPLYING
A WEAKER STR THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THERE REMAINS MODERATE
LATERAL SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 23.9S 68.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 68.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.8S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 25.7S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 26.7S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.1S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 31.6S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 35.3S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 68.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 679 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS
ORGANIZED AND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 291652Z METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF
T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY IS HEDGED BETWEEN A 291159Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS AND A KNES DVORAK CI OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS).
TC 22S IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35
KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE BETWEEN 26 AND 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS. HOWEVER, TC 22S WILL TRACK OVER UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 22S IS TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST. BEYOND TAU 24, INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING
DEEP LAYER LOW WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO TEMPORARILY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SHAPE OF THE TRACK,
INDICATING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 12, THEN A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN A SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. DESPITE THE GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK
SHAPE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD OF 250 NM AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS
BY TAU 72. THE SPREAD INCREASES TO 360 NM BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. INTERACTION WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO BEGIN
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 24.4S 69.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 69.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.3S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 26.2S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.5S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 29.2S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 32.0S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 35.5S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 24.6S 69.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 709 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF TC 22S
CONTINUES TO DEGRADE GRADUALLY WITH TIME. THE INITIAL POSITION OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 292314Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN ELONGATED LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW/FMEE/FIMP AND T3.0
FROM KNES, COMBINED WITH EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATING A
POSSIBLE LOW BIAS IN THE DVORAK VALUES. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND TC
22S IS BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE, WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(30 TO 35 KNOTS) ACTING TO DISRUPT THE STRUCTURE OF THE CIRCULATION
AROUND TC 22S. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN MARGINAL (26 TO
27 DEGREES CELSIUS). HOWEVER, SST WILL DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK AS TC 22S CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. COOLER SST, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC COLD-CORE LOW WILL
RESULT IN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION COMMENCING BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETED
BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SHAPE OF THE TRACK, BUT THE SPREAD REMAINS SIGNIFICANT BEYOND TAU
24. GIVEN THE UPCOMING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND THE SPREAD IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 25.3S 69.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 69.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 26.1S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 27.2S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.1S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 29.4S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 32.2S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 35.2S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 748 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) HAS DISPLACED THE CIRRUS SHIELD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING
FROM A CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN A 300404Z METOP-
B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS HEDGED ABOVE MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0-T3.5 (45-55 KTS)
BASED ON THE METOP-B PASS WHICH SHOWED A SWATH OF 60 KT WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE LLCC. MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE,
HIGH (30-40 KT) VWS, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. AROUND TAU 48-72, AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL, COLD CORE LOW WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
TC 22S, CAUSING IT TO BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE. UNTIL COMPLETING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96, TC 22S
WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
ALTHOUGH EVERY MEMBER OF THE CONSENSUS SHOWS A GENERALLY POLEWARD
TRACK, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE,
LARGELY DUE TO ECMWF AND NAVGEM DEPICTING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN
THE NEAR TERM WHILE THE OTHER MEMBERS MAINTAIN A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE CONSENSUS, HEDGED AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF ECMWF AND NAVGEM, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 26.0S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 70.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 26.8S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.7S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 28.9S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 30.1S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 32.4S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 35.6S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 70.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT HAS
FORCED THE CONVECTION AND CIRRUS SHIELD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 301101Z GMI 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
VIEW OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY
EXCEEDS THE KNES/PGTW DVORAK AVERAGE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) WITH THE
HEDGING BASED ON A TREND FROM A 300404Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS.
UNFAVORABLE VWS AND COOL (26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL
NEGATE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO CAUSE SLOW WEAKENING FOR THE
DURATION OF THE WARNING. TC 22S IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST. BY TAU 48, TC 22S SHOULD SLOWLY START TO
DEVELOP SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL, COLD CORE LOW. BY TAU 96, THAT TRANSITION SHOULD BE
COMPLETE. THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. UKMET AND ECMWF ARE THE RIGHT-OF-TRACK AND
LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIERS AND CAUSE THE SPREAD TO EXCEED 180 NM BY TAU
48. AFTER TAU 72, THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONVERGE WITH
THE OTHER MEMBERS AND THE SPREAD REDUCES SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE
HIGH SPREAD IN THE EARLY FORECAST TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 26.7S 70.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 70.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 27.5S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.5S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 29.9S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 26.9S 69.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 803 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF DEEP BUT COLLAPSING CONVECTION
SHEARED EAST AND POLEWARD OF AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A BROAD LLC FEATURE
IN THE 301657Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS. TC 22S
HAS DRIFTED INTO HIGH (40KTS+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER,
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE STRAYED
CONVECTION. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO GET WORSE AND RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, POSSIBLY SOONER. CONCURRENTLY, THE
CYCLONE IS NOW UNDERGOING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND WILL BECOME
FULLY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 24, IF NOT SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 26.8S 69.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 69.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.6S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE INUNDATED
BY STRONG (40KTS+) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DISPLACING AND
ERODING THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION MORE THAN 50NM SOUTHEASTWARD
AND PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS BECOME RAGGED
AND ELONGATED. ADDITIONALLY, THE JTWC TC PHASE CLASSIFICATION
WORKSHEET SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SUBTROPICAL. TC 22S WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ERODE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 20
FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_joaninha.htm | Updated: 20 May 2019 |