Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone LILI Southern Hemisphere Summary

WTXS21 PGTW 071730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.3S 129.5E TO 8.3S 128.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.4S 129.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.3S 129.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4S 129.2E, 378 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING, WELL-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN. A 071326Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND SHOWS WINDS OF 30-35
KTS IN THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER, ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY WRAPPED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE
SYSTEM AND THE LLCC IS STILL ELONGATED. INVEST 93S IS CURRENTLY IN
AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE
TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
081730Z.
========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 081730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071730Z MAY 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 071730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2S 129.2E TO 8.7S 127.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.6S 129.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.4S 129.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6S 129.1E, 313 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BALL OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS
OBSCURED BY THE CONVECTION. A 081304Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE
LLCC IS STILL BROAD, WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE CENTER AND WRAPPING IN. ROBUST DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29 TO
30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE OFFSETTING MODERATE
(15-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD, ALTHOUGH THE MODERATE SHEAR MAY SLOW THE TIMELINE
OF CONSOLIDATION AND DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091730Z.
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081721ZMAY2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z --- NEAR 8.7S 128.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S 128.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 9.0S 128.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 9.2S 128.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 9.2S 126.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 8.7S 124.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 8.8S 128.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LLCC. A 090615Z SSMI 85GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED LLCC POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE INTENSE CORE
CONVECTION. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE MSI AND THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER,
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INTERACTION WITH LAND ARE EXPECTED TO HINDER
DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND
PGTW. A 090113Z ASCAT IMAGE, HOWEVER, SHOWS STRONGER WINDS (35-40
KNOTS) TO THE SOUTH ENHANCED BY THE GRADIENT. TC LILI IS FORECAST TO
TURN WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH, AND
WILL TRACK OVER EAST TIMOR AFTER TAU 36. TC 26S WILL INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT WILL WEAKEN STEADILY
AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY TO TRACK POLEWARD DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 081730).//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z --- NEAR 9.1S 128.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.1S 128.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 9.3S 128.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 9.3S 127.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 9.1S 125.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 8.7S 123.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 128.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
091244Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS
35-40 KNOT WINDS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT POSITION AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 40 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
INTERACTION WITH LAND ARE EXPECTED TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT. TC LILI IS
FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE
SOUTH, AND WILL TRACK OVER EAST TIMOR NEAR TAU 36. TC 26S WILL
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT WILL WEAKEN
STEADILY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY TO TRACK POLEWARD DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z --- NEAR 9.4S 129.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S 129.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 9.7S 128.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 9.6S 127.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 9.4S 126.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 9.2S 126.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 9.5S 128.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH WEAKENING DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 091816Z
GMI IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED
ON T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. A 091241Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 45
KNOTS FURTHER SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AFTER TAU 12 ARE EXPECTED TO HINDER ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AT
45 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12, BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER
TAU 12 DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z,
100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 129.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 129.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 10.1S 128.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 10.1S 127.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 10.2S 126.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 129.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 092155Z SSMIS
IMAGE SHOWS LIMITED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND A 092155Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO HINDER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 26S
IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED
TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE UNTIL DISSIPATION AT TAU
36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z --- NEAR 9.3S 128.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 128.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 9.2S 127.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 9.0S 126.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 128.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH RAPIDLY
DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION. A 100541Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY,
THIS IMAGE PROVIDES SOLID EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND
TURNED WESTWARD AS FORECAST. BASED ON THE RAPID WEAKENING AND DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS), THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS EVIDENT IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS
IN THE VICINITY, WHICH SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVELS. TC LILI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH, AND WILL TRACK OVER EAST
TIMOR NEAR TAU 24. TC 26S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z AND
110300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z --- NEAR 9.3S 128.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 128.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 9.1S 127.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 9.0S 126.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 128.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101248Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 (30
KNOTS) BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS
EVIDENT IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN UPPER-
AIR SOUNDINGS IN THE VICINITY, WHICH SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS. TC LILI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS
IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH, AND WILL TRACK OVER EAST
TIMOR NEAR TAU 24. TC 26S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z AND
110900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z --- NEAR 9.2S 127.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 127.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 9.0S 126.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 127.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
OTHER THAN A SINGLE DEEP CONVECTIVE AREA JUST SOUTH OF, AND
PARTIALLY OBSCURING, THE LLCC NO DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KTS) BASED ON A
101330Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWING A FEW 35-40 KT WIND BARBS UNDER THE
DEEP CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE,
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC
26S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY THE CONVECTION AND CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO WEAKEN, WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, LENDING TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET.//