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Tropical Cyclone MONA
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone MONA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 11.1S 177.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 177.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 12.7S 177.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 13.4S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 13.9S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.8S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.6S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.9S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 22.1S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 177.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM NORTH OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND EARLY HIGH RESOLUTION
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CDO
OBSCURATION, BUT IS SUPPORTED PRIMARILY BY AN 021810Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEVELOPING LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A
JTWC DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG
OUTFLOW BEING PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND WARM (29-30 DEG CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, SUPPORTING NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. TC 09P IS
TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTER FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT
MOVES INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING STR TO THE SOUTHWEST, LEADING TO SLOW
SOUTHWARD MEANDERING THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, A RELATIVELY
STRONG DYNAMIC MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH AND WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PULL TS 09P TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST OF VANUA LEVU. THE TROUGH FILLS AND PULLS RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 72, AND A STRONG STR BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, TURING TS 09P ONTO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. TS
09P IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW VWS,
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH OHC VALUES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU 48, BEFORE BEGINNING A
WEAKENING TREND DUE TO INCREASED VWS AND DECREASING SSTS TO THE SOUTH
OF FIJI. THERE IS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IN WHICH THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS DEEPER AND MORE INTENSE THAT CURRENTLY PREDICTED, WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TC 09P TO BE CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH AND MAINTAIN A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS SHOWING WIDELY
DIFFERENT TRACKS. THE GFS AND NAVGEM AGREE ON THE SLOW SOUTHWEST
MEANDER DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST, BUT THEN SEPARATE
WITH GFS SHOWING A SHARP TRACK SOUTHEAST FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER SHARP
TURN TOWARDS THE WEST AFTER TAU 72. NAVGEM CONTINUES THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF FIJI AFTER TAU 72 AND DOES NOT TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST. THE GALWEM AND EGRR MODELS DEPICT THE ALTERNATE
SOLUTION WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AND BY TAU 120 LYING SOME 2000 NM TO THE EAST OF THE GFS
SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE CONSENSUS, WHICH IS BEING UNREALISTICALLY PULLED TO THE EAST BY
THE GALWEM AND EGRR TRACKERS, AND BETWEEN THE NAVGEM AND GFS
SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE VERY WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AT THIS
TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P
(PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 002A RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 11.4S 178.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 178.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 12.3S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 13.2S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.0S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.6S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.4S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.2S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.2S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 178.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM NORTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED PREDOMINANTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT POSITION IS TO THE EAST OF
EARLIER FIX POSITIONS WHICH WERE FOCUSED ON A DIFFERENT FEATURE IN
THE INFRARED LOOP. THE POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 022125Z 89GHZ MHS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS VERY WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL
REFLECTIVITY AREA WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, BASED
ON A JTWC DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND
IS HEDGED ABOVE THE KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30KTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-
15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE
LOCATED OVER THE LLCC. TC 09P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE COMPETING STEERING FEATURES WILL
CAUSE A SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, A
PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL TRANSIT TO THE SOUTH AND PULL TS
09P TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE TROUGH FILLS, A STRONG STR BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, TURING TS 09P ONTO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
AFTER TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL
NORTH COAST OF VANUA LEVU AT TAU 72. TS 09P IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY, THOUGH NOT AS RAPIDLY WAS EARLIER FORECASTS. THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS SUPPORTED BY A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
SSTS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW VWS, AND STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS
AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND DUE TO
INCREASED VWS AND DECREASING SSTS AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE REMAINS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IN WHICH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
IS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED. THIS STRONGER TROUGH CAUSES TC
09P TO BE CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS
PRODUCING WIDELY VARIED TRACKS. THE GFS AND NAVGEM AGREE ON THE SLOW
SOUTHERN MOTION THROUGH TAU 72, BUT THEN SEPARATE WITH GFS SHOWING A
SHARP TRACK SOUTHWEST THAT BECOMES MORE WESTWARD BY TAU 120. NAVGEM
CONTINUES THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF FIJI AFTER TAU 72 AND DOES NOT
TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE GALWEM MODEL DEPICTS A
THIRD SCENARIO WHERE THE TROUGH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAPTURE THE
SYSTEM EARLIER IN THE RUN WHICH CAUSES THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. COLLECTIVELY, THERE IS A 1000 NM
SPREAD BETWEEN CONSENSUS OUTLIERS AT TAU 120. THE OFFICIAL JTWC
TRACK FORECAST LIES WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE
GFS SOLUTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY TURN. DUE TO THE VERY WIDE SPREAD
IN THE MODELS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z AND 040300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P
(PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 12.6S 178.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 178.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 13.6S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.5S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.1S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.1S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.4S 178.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.9S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.4S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 178.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 030600Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A JTWC
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND HEDGED
ABOVE THE KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30KTS). TC 09P IS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
TOWARD THE SOUTH IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS, TC 09P WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTH. THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS FOR THE TROUGH TO PULL AWAY TO THE
EAST AS THE STR BUILDS IN BEHIND IT, EVENTUALLY DRIVING TC 09P
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BEYOND TAU 48. GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF
DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MOVE INTO
STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT MOVES SOUTH, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN REDUCED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. A
PEAK INTENSITY OF APPROXIMATELY 60 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO BE REACHED
BY AROUND TAU 72. THEREAFTER, A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE
WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THERE REMAINS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IN WHICH THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH IS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED, THUS
RESULTING IN TC 09P TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BIFURCATE, WITH THE GFS, AEMN, AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST, WHEREAS THE EGRR, GALWEM,
AND NAVGEM SUGGEST THE LATTER SCENARIO OF TURNING TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY PREFERS THE FORMER SCENARIO,
SO THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE EXTREME SPREAD IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z,
040900Z, and 041500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 13.5S 177.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 177.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.3S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.8S 177.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.4S 177.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.9S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.6S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.9S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.7S 176.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 177.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 278 NM NORTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 031000Z METOP-
A ASCAT PASS, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWING SEVERAL 40-KNOT WIND BARBS.
ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, TC 09P IS IN AN AREA
OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS) WITH EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND EVIDENCE OF SOME SOUTHWARD TILTING OF THE
VORTEX WITH HEIGHT GIVEN THAT THE EIR CIRCULATION CENTER IS SOUTH
OF THE ASCAT CENTER. THUS, EVEN THOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM (29-30 CELSIUS), ONLY MODERATE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, TC 09P WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ERODES THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF
SUGGEST A CLOCKWISE LOOP AS THE LLCC REORGANIZES, WHEREAS OTHER
MODELS MOVE THE CIRCULATION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL JTWC
FORECAST TRACK SLOWS THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOME SHORT-TERM, ERRATIC MOTION. BEYOND TAU 48, DYNAMIC MODELS
GREATLY DIVERGE AND BIFURCATE, WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO
SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST, WHEREAS THE EGRR, GALWEM,
AND NAVGEM CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO OF TURNING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY PREFERS THE
FORMER SCENARIO AND FOLLOWS THE ECMWF CLOSELY, WITH THE OFFICIAL
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TC 09P, BUT
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED BY TAU 72,
WITH WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE
EXTREME SPREAD IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 14.5S 177.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 177.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.1S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.4S 177.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.9S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.6S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.1S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.1S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.6S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 177.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
031706Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT SATELLITE
POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AGENCY FIXES AND
AUTOMATED SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATES. TC 09P IS TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
WRAPPED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, COMMENSURATE WITH A STEADY UPWARD
INTENSITY TREND. FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO INFLUENCE STORM MOTION. STEADY TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-TERM DUE TO FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER.
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, BUT THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY
THROUGH TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE. THE GFS, GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, HWRF AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT TC
09P WILL MOVE SLOWLY POLEWARD IN THE NEAR-TERM BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BUILD. THE NAVGEM, COAMPS-TC,
UKMET AND GALWEM MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK IN THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD, WITH LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS THE GFS, GEFS, HWRF AND
ECMWF SOLUTION SET BASED ON A WESTWARD TREND IN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES. HOWEVER, IN LIGHT OF
ONGOING MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 040300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 006A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 006A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 177.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 177.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.2S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.6S 177.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.2S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.9S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.4S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.5S 177.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.9S 173.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 177.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
032105Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AGENCY
FIXES AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATES. TC 09P CONTINUES
TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING IN THE STEERING
FLOW AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REORIENTS TO THE EAST. CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS WANED SOMEWHAT IN RECENT HOURS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. TC
09P WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND PRESENTS A COMPETING
STEERING INFLUENCE. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEAR-TERM DUE TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE, BUT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED
RANGE. THE LATEST NAVGEM SOLUTION HAS JOINED THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS, WHICH INDICATE THAT TC 09P WILL MOVE SLOWLY POLEWARD IN
THE NEAR-TERM BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH BECOMES THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS THE MAJORITY MODEL SET BASED ON AN
ONGOING WESTWARD TREND IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES. HOWEVER, IN LIGHT OF ONGOING MODEL SPREAD,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED AMPLIFYING REMARKS.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 176.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 176.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.1S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.2S 176.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.8S 177.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.8S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.5S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.5S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.2S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 176.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
NEARLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND A 040633Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO T2.0
(PGTW), SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO
40 KNOTS. TC 09P HAS TRACKED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN THE LAST 6
HOURS AND IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 25
KNOTS) WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST,
BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE
DEVELOPED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OF TC 09P, BUT
ASSUMING THE CURRENT LLCC HOLDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE A
CLOCKWISE LOOP IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD, WHICH SHOULD FORCE TC 09P TO TRACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR AND THEN AWAY FROM FIJI. GIVEN THE RECENT LACK OF
ORGANIZATION AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY, THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60
KNOTS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED BY TAUS 36 TO 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT, WITH ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING AN EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN AND POOR CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF TC 09P, THERE IS STILL OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND
050900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 14.0S 176.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 176.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.7S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 14.1S 177.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.9S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.2S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.3S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.2S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.6S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 176.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 040937Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS GOOD BANDING BUT ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED ABOVE
THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND AN ADT CI OF T3.2 (49 KNOTS). TC 09P IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND HAS A MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 09P IS IN THE
PROCESS OF SLOWLY COMPLETING A CLOCKWISE LOOP WHILE LOCATED BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE EAST. THROUGH TAU 36, THE NER WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY
STEERING FEATURE AND CAUSE TC 09P TO TRACK EASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 36, TC 09P WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 60
KNOTS DUE TO FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 48, THE NER WILL BUILD WESTWARD AND CAUSE
TC 09P TO BEGIN TRACKING WESTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AND THE INTENSITY WILL DECREASE TO 45 KNOTS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING AN
EASTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A MODEL SPREAD OF 335NM BY TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
MEMBERS AGREE ON THE GENERAL SHAPE OF THE TRACK BUT DIFFER IN TIMING
AND THE SHARPNESS OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z,
050900Z AND 051500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 176.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 176.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 13.2S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.8S 177.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.2S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.0S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.6S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.0S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.7S 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 176.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 051816Z HIGH
RESOLUTION WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED LOW LEVEL
CONVECTIVE BANDS, PARTICULARLY ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM,
WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (35 KNOTS) IN LIGHT OF AN AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T3.2 (49 KNOTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 09P LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE VWS (15-20 KNOTS), WARM SSTS (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 09P HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST 18 HOURS, MEANDERING IN A CLOCKWISE LOOP IN A WEAK STEERING
PATTERN BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY, IT APPEARS THAT IT HAS BEGUN TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST, AND SHOULD TURN EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY TAU 24 AND SOUTH
BY TAU 36 AS THE NER BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. BY TAU
48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING ONTO A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK,
PASSING OVER VITI LEVU, AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH TAKES OVER AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. TC 09P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF
DECREASING VWS, IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS, PEAKING AT
65 KNOTS AT TAU 36. AFTER PASSING OVER VITI LEVU, INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO STEADILY WEAKEN TC 09P. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT, WITH THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS INDICATING THE TURN TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
NEW CALEDONIA, WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG TRACK
SPEED AND THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THE EGRR AND GALWEM TRACKERS
REMAIN THE FAR EASTERN OUTLIERS, TURNING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD WELL
EAST OF FIJI. DUE TO THE OVERALL HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL DATA,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR, THOUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER BEYOND TAU 72, THAN
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z,050900Z, 051500Z AND
052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 176.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 176.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.8S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.7S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.0S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.7S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.4S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.1S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 23.0S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 176.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A BROAD, DIFFUSE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SCATTERED FLARING
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIALLY OBSCURED CIRCULATION CENTER
VISIBLE AT TIMES IN ANIMATED IMAGERY BETWEEN FLARE UPS OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A 042151Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWED THE BROAD AND DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND
SUPPORTED THE PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION, WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON A 042152Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
WHICH INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE
REMAINED AT T2.0 (35 KNOTS), BUT AUTOMATED ESTIMATES AND
SATELLITE CONSENSUS VALUES OF 49 KNOTS AND 50 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY
WERE BASED ON THE FLARING CONVECTION AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE ACTUAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. TC 09P LIES IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VWS,
WARM SSTS (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) AND MODERATE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TC 09P LOOKS TO HAVE COMPLETED ITS CLOCKWISE LOOP AND
STARTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 09P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH THROUGH TAU
36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 48 ALONG THE COAST OF VITI
LEVU THEN BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWEST AS THE STEERING PATTERN
SHIFTS TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. WHILE
TC 09P HAS SO FAR FAILED TO INTENSIFY AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, IT
IS CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 AS VWS SLACKENS SOMEWHAT, WHILE OUTFLOW
IMPROVES AND THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS. AFTER PASSING
OVER VITI LEVU, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE
TO STEADILY WEAKEN TC 09P. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO COOLER WATERS (24 TO 26 CELSIUS) AND MOVE UNDER A
DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW, LEADING TO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
INCREASED WITH THIS MOST RECENT RUN, WITH A 275 NM SPREAD
BETWEEN GALWEM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AT TAU 36. WHILE ALL
MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK, A ROUGHLY
300 NM SPREAD PERSISTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK LIES TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AND MOST CLOSELY TO THE GFS SOLUTION. DUE
TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTH AND THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE FORECAST, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 176.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 176.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.2S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.6S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.4S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.7S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.9S 175.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.4S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.2S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 176.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 278 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE ON A 050430Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING SOME
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO 35 KTS BASED ON PERSISTENT EXPANSIVE
CONVECTION AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS T1.5 (25 KTS), ALTHOUGH THE SATCON ESTIMATE AT 050159Z
WAS 47 KTS. TC 09P LIES IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING AIDED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND WARM SSTS (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS), ALTHOUGH
THERE IS ALSO HIGH (25-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 09P IS
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER HAVING COMPLETED A LOOP, ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. TC 09P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH THROUGH TAU 36
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 18 ALONG THE COAST OF VANUA
LEVU THEN BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWEST AS THE STEERING PATTERN SHIFTS TO
A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 09P HAS
CONSOLIDATED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AND IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 50 KTS AT TAU 24 AS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT AND VWS IS FORECAST TO SLACKEN IN THE NEAR
TERM. AFTER PASSING OVER VANUA LEVU, INCREASING VWS, DIMINISHING
OUTFLOW, AND DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO STEADILY WEAKEN TC 09P.
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT LATER TAUS, THE SYSTEM WILL FLIRT WITH THE
26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM, AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE AREA AROUND TAU 96, WHICH
WILL CAUSE TC 09P TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. MOST MODELS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF STILL PREDICT THE RECURVE SCENARIO, WITH A
205 NM SPREAD AT TAU 36. ECMWF MOVES TC 09P TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
THEN LOSES THE CIRCULATION AT TAU 36, BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO
RECURVE. THE LAST SEVERAL MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUSES HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE RIGHT, WITH ECMWF AND GALWEM TO THE EAST OF CONSENSUS, AND GFS
ON THE INSIDE AND WEST OF CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE EAST, BUT STILL LIES TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE
FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 177.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 177.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.5S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.0S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.8S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.1S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.1S 176.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.8S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.0S 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 177.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 051023Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND AN ADT CI OF
T3.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 09P IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
09P IS IN THE PROCESS OF COMPLETING A CLOCKWISE LOOP AND WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 WHILE POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 09P TO
REACH AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 09P TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE AND CAUSE TC 09P TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AFTER TAU 36. BY TAU 96, TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.
TC 09P WILL BECOME FULLY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH SPREAD OF
150 NM. HOWEVER, THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TO 490 NM BY TAU 120. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z,
060900Z AND 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 13.8S 177.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 177.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.8S 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.5S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.2S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.7S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.5S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.7S 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.8S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 177.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM NORTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVERTOP OF A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND A 051638Z
91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A CENTRALLY LOCATED AND ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW T3.0 (45
KNOTS) FROM KNES. TC 09P IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND HAS A WELL ORGANIZED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 09P IS COMPLETING
A CLOCKWISE LOOP AND IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INCLUDING LOW SHEAR, GOOD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 09P TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 24, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL TAKE OVER AS
THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO THE SOUTHWEST, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE AND CAUSE TC 09P TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER TAU 48. BY TAU 96, TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. PERSISTENT INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL CAUSE TC 09P TO BECOME FULLY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TRACK DIRECTION THOUGH
INDIVIDUAL CONSENSUS MEMBERS VARY ON THE SHARPNESS AND TIMING OF THE
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A SPREAD OF AROUND 500NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 051800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z
AND 062100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 178.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 178.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.1S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.1S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.6S 179.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.6S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.2S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 23.3S 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 179.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM NORTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD AREA OF DEEP FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A NOTCH FEATURE IN
THE 052130Z MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW. TC 09P IS
CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) REMAIN WARM AT 29-30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTER
TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH WILL ASSUME PRIMARY
STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDING LOW SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND
WARM SSTS WILL ALLOW TC 09P TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS AT
TAUS 24-36. AFTERWARD, AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO THE SOUTHWEST,
VWS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU
96. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 72, TC 09P WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, BECOMING FULLY
SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK WITH THE LARGEST SPREAD (330 NM) DURING THE
TRANSITIONAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND
070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 179.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 179.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.9S 178.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.5S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.8S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.8S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.1S 175.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 179.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS ISOLATED, PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE USING A 060518Z SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SUGGESTS THE LLCC TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK FIX INTENSITIES OF T2.5-T3.0 (35-45 KTS). EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ARE
BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (15-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. TC 09P IS BEING STEERED BY A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL TURN THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD AND
MAINTAIN THAT TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL TAU 48 WHEN HIGH VWS AND COOLING SST SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD AS IT BEGINS TO
TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, BUT THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P
(PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 177.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 177.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.2S 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.6S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.7S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.6S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.9S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 177.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 061004Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE LLCC
AND INCLUDES SEVERAL 45 KT WIND BARBS TO THE NORTH. COMPARING THE
ASCAT PASS TO THE CORRESPONDING AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PLACES
THE LLCC NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ABOVE THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BASED ON THE ASCAT
IMAGE. DESPITE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), INTENSIFICATION IS BEING HINDERED BY
MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE STEERING
FOR TC 09P IS TRANSITIONING FROM A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO UNFAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR. BY TAU 72,
IF NOT SOONER, TC 09P SHOULD FALL BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z,
070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 177.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 177.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.1S 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.5S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.4S 178.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.8S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.5S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 177.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ERODING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EIR LOOP. A 061437Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC IS UNDER THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 45 KTS AGREES WITH THE KNES AND NFFN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS), BUT IS ABOVE THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KTS). DESPITE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), INTENSIFICATION IS BEING
HINDERED BY HIGH (25-40 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 09P IS
TRANSITIONING FROM BEING STEERED BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL RECURVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU
12. VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN THE NEAR TERM, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC
09P TO MAINTAIN A 45 KT INTENSITY FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU
36, TC 09P WILL CROSS THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SST ISOTHERM, VWS WILL
INCREASE, AND OUTFLOW WILL DIMINISH, LEADING TO FURTHER WEAKENING
AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AND MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST, TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 19.3S 176.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 176.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.5S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.7S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.5S 178.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.0S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 176.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) UNDER
WANING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND A 062111Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS BANDING, BUT MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS AGREES WITH THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS),
BUT IS ABOVE THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). DESPITE EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST), INTENSIFICATION IS BEING HINDERED BY HIGH (25-30 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 09P IS TRANSITIONING FROM BEING STEERED BY A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL RECURVE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 12. VWS HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY, WHICH WILL
ALLOW TC 09P TO MAINTAIN A 45 KT INTENSITY FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS.
AFTER TAU 24, TC 09P WILL CROSS THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SST ISOTHERM,
VWS WILL INCREASE, AND OUTFLOW WILL DIMINISH, LEADING TO FURTHER
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST, AND IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS
19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 177.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 177.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.8S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.6S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.3S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 177.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE USING THE
ANIMATED EIR AND A 070324Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC AND THE DEEPEST PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS BETWEEN PGTW
AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T2.5-3.0 (35-45
KTS) AND REFLECTS THE DIMINISHED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) BEING
OFFSET BY HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST IS BEGINNING TO DOMINATE OVER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND TC 09P
WILL ESTABLISH A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 12. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE DUE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLING SST AND TC
09P IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36, IF NOT SOONER. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS TO COMPENSATE FOR
NAVGEM, WHICH IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS LOW DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 20.0S 177.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 177.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.0S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.7S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.4S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 178.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DISAPPEARED BUT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS STILL OBSCURED BY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS BEING HELD ABOVE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) DUE TO RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWING PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATES AS TOO LOW WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODERATE (15-
25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), A WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
AND TEPID (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) MAKE THE
ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN OR INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM. FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL KEEP TC 09P ON A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL CAUSE TC 09P TO DISSIPATE BY TAU
36, IF NOT SOONER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS, BASED ON STRONG
AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND
081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 20.6S 178.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 178.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.3S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 178.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 231 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A. EXTREMELY ELONGATED AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT IS COMPLETELY VOID OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO
T2.0 AND REFLECTS THE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM IS NOW IN AN AREA OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (GREATER THAN
30 KNOTS) AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
WEST WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSE OF ITS FURTHER DETERIORATION. TC
09P IS DISSIPATED AND NOW BELOW THE JTWC WARNING THRESHOLD. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 13 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_mona.htm | Updated: 7 March 2019 |