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Tropical Cyclone OMA
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone OMA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 163.1E TO 16.8S 169.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 164.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
160.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 164.0E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 111706Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. 96P LIES IN AN AREA OF
UNFAVORABLE (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING CONVECTION AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS BRIEFLY QUASI-
STATIONARY BEFORE MAKING A LOOP OVER VANUATU AND MOVING ON A SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
122100Z.//
========================================================================
001 NOT AVAILABLE
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 13.7S 164.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 164.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.7S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.9S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.3S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.8S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.5S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.7S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.1S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 165.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE, DISORGANIZED SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING WITH THE BULK OF ITS
CONVECTION OFFSET WESTWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY TRACING
THE EXPOSED FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND LINING UP WITH A RAGGED
LLC FEATURE IN THE 120533Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG
(25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA
ARE CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU
24, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND
DRIVE TC 15P SOUTHWARD THEN, AFTER TAU 72, SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN CALEDONIA. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE
SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS AROUND TAU 36. AFTERWARD,
DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND COOLING SSTS, IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH VWS,
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120.
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH STARK DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MEMBERS IN THE
NEAR-TERM: GFS AND HWRF OFFER A SHARP REVERSAL BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND GALWEM OFFERS THE WIDEST EASTWARD TURN. IN VIEW OF
THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 165.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 165.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.0S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.3S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.7S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.4S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.3S 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.2S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.4S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 165.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITH THE BULK OF ITS CONVECTION OFFSET WESTWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BY TRACING THE FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND LINING UP WITH
A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 121038Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW,
NFFN, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER
STRONG (25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET
BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION
TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE
AREA ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS SLOWLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. AFTER TAU 12, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL
ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 15P SOUTHWARD THEN, AFTER TAU 48,
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW CALEDONIA. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS
AT TAUS 24-36. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND COOLING SSTS, IN
ADDITION TO THE HIGH VWS, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 35
BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE
GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH NOTABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MEMBERS: ECMF AND GALWEM OFFER A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION IN THE NEAR
TERM BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AND HWRF OFFERS THE WIDEST
EASTWARD TURN, A POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH A
SECONDARY CYCLONE (92P) APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. IN VIEW OF THESE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST
WEST OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET HWRF. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND
131500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 166.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 166.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.2S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.6S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.1S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.9S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.5S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.6S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.1S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 166.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH THE BULK OF ITS CONVECTION OFFSET WESTWARD
OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FROM THE TIP OF THE CONVECTION SEEN
WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST IN THE 121910Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG (25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING
VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE
IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 12, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 15P SOUTHWARD THEN,
AFTER TAU 48, SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW CALEDONIA. THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS AT TAUS 24-36. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW
AND COOLING SSTS, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40 KTS BY
TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL TRACK CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
UNTIL THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INCREASE SPEED AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 14.4S 166.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 166.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.6S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.0S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.6S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.3S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.1S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.3S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.3S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 166.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH WITH THE BULK OF ITS CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHWESTWARD OF AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FROM MSI WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG
(30-35 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA
ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST IS CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
THEN, AFTER TAU 36, SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW CALEDONIA. THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS AT TAUS 12-36. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW
AND COOLING SSTS, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40 KTS BY
TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL TRACK CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
UNTIL THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INCREASE SPEED AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 006 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 006 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 165.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 165.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.8S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.3S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.0S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.7S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.4S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.6S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.3S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 165.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE, DISORGANIZED SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING WITH THE BULK OF ITS
CONVECTION OFFSET WESTWARD AND SPLIT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OF AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BY TRACING THE EXPOSED FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
LINING UP WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC FEATURE IN THE 122218Z AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG (25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS LODGED IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST THAT IS POISED TO ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 15P
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN, AFTER TAU 48, SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN
NEW CALEDONIA. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS AT TAUS 12-24. AFTERWARD,
DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND COOLING SSTS, IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH VWS,
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST
TRACK BUT WITH STARK DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MEMBERS IN THE NEAR-TERM:
GALWEM AND HWRF OFFER A CONTINUED REVERSE MOTION BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND THE REST AT VARYING ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS. IN VIEW OF
THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 14.0S 165.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 165.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.3S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.8S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.4S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.1S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.4S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.0S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.6S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 165.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM THAT HAS CONTINUED
TO DEEPEN WITH THE BULK OF ITS CONVECTION OFFSET WESTWARD OF AND
SPLIT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE 131050Z ASCAT DIRECT PASS SHOWING NUMEROUS 50- TO
55-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INTENSITY IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG
(25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A
ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE HIGHLY
CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS IN A QUASI-STATIONARY/LOOPING
MOTION IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE STR IS POISED
TO ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 15P SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER
TAU 36, SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW CALEDONIA. THE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
60 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND COOLING SSTS,
IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH VWS, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO
40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH STARK DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MEMBERS IN THE NEAR-TERM: HWRF OFFERS A WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24
AND THE REST HAVE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AND AT VARYING ALONG-TRACK
SPEEDS. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.2S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.7S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.2S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.9S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.7S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.0S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.8S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 15P IS CLASSIFIED AS A VERY LARGE
SYSTEM WITH A DIAMETER OF APPROXIMATELY 560NM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE REGIONS OF DEEP CONVECTION
ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
131857Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTER, WHICH PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE POSITION AND ITS TRACK REFLECTING THE QUASISTATIONARY NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 28-30
DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS STILL SHOW STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS WEAK WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. SHEAR VALUES HAVE DECREASED DOWN TO 15-
20KTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO 10-15KTS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 131050Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING 50-55KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0-4.0 (45-65KTS).
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING
STEERING INFLUENCES, WHICH IS PRODUCING AN ERRATIC, QUASISTATIONARY
TRACK MOTION. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
AFTER TAU 72, A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO TURN MORE POLEWARD. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK ORIENTATION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE TO
THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. SYSTEM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO A PEAK
OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 165.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 165.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.1S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.6S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.2S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.7S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.6S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.9S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.7S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 165.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 242 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 15P IS CLASSIFIED AS A VERY
LARGE SYSTEM WITH A DIAMETER OF APPROXIMATELY 530NM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE REGIONS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 132156Z METOP-A MHS 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTER WITH
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, WHICH PROVIDES FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
CONDUCIVE AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS STILL
SHOW STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS WEAK WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 25-
30KTS, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO 15-20KTS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED OFF OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 3.5-4.0 (55-65KTS). ADDITIONALLY, A RECENT SMAP IMAGE
INDICATES 50-55KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES, WHICH IS PRODUCING AN ERRATIC, QUASISTATIONARY TRACK
MOTION. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER
TAU 72, A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
TURN MORE POLEWARD. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK ORIENTATION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC
15P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO A
PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND
150300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 165.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 165.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.1S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.5S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.0S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.2S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.8S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.5S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.4S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE SHIELD OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH MOST
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. A 140516Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED BANDING AND THE LLCC TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 140516Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS). A 140733Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS
HIGHER, AT 66 KTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT
28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. A POINT SOURCE TO THE EAST IS PROVIDING FOR
GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT OUTFLOW IS WEAK IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR V(VWS) VALUES ARE HIGH (25-
30 KTS), HINDERING NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES,
LEADING TO A MEANDERING, QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK. OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. AFTER TAU 24,
THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF ANOTHER STR
OVER AUSTRALIA BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, A SERIES OF MID-
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE STR EXTENSION TO
THE SOUTH, AND RE-ORIENT THE STR TO THE EAST, LEADING TO THE SYSTEM
TAKING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK ORIENTATION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE TO
THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS TC 15P MOVES POLEWARD.
AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE TO IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING MIDLATITUDE TROUGHS TO
A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND
150900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 165.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 165.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.8S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.1S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.4S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.6S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.7S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.6S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.2S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 165.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SHIELD OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH
MOST CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. A 141028Z AMSU
89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED BANDING, THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DEFINITIVELY DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU
IMAGE AND UPPER LEVEL ROTATION IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.5 (55 KTS). THE AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES T3.8 (61
KTS) AT 141340Z. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 28-
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. A POINT SOURCE TO THE EAST IS PROVIDING FOR GOOD
WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT OUTFLOW IS WEAK IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES ARE HIGH (25-
30 KTS), HINDERING NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES,
AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THE SHORT-TERM
TRACK FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING ECMWF,
GALWEM, AND THE UKMET, SHOW A KINK IN THE TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
BEFORE SETTLING THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, WHILE OTHER
MODELS PREDICT AN ACCELERATING SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FROM THE ONSET.
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST IS
FORECAST TO BUILD AT THE SAME TIME THAT AN EXTENSION OF ANOTHER STR
OVER AUSTRALIA FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 15P. AFTER TAU 72, A SERIES
OF MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE STR
EXTENSION TO THE SOUTH, AND RE-ORIENT THE STR TO THE EAST, LEADING
TO THE SYSTEM TAKING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND ACCELERATING. THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST
TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK ORIENTATION AND
TIMING OF THE RECURVE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE AS TC 15P MOVES POLEWARD AND IS ABLE
TO TAP INTO THE PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGHS. AS A RESULT, TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 48, REACHING A PEAK OF 75 KTS AT TAU
120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 165.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 165.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.7S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.0S 164.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.2S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.5S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.8S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.6S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.5S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 165.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE REGIONS OF DEEP CONVECTION ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 141628Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH PROVIDES IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 27-29
DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS STILL SHOW STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SHEAR VALUES
HAVE INCREASED TO 25-30KTS, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO 20-25KTS AS
THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 3.5 (55KTS) FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING
STEERING INFLUENCES, WHICH IS PRODUCING AN ERRATIC, QUASISTATIONARY
TRACK MOTION. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, A
SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE
POLEWARD. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK
ORIENTATION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO A PEAK
OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 165.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 165.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.3S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.5S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.7S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.1S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.1S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.2S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.7S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 165.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED CENTER. A 142246Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 55-60KT
WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS STILL SHOW STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH
DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SHEAR VALUES ARE CURRENTLY AT 20-25KTS,
BUT WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO 15-20KTS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 3.5 (55KTS) TO 4.0 (65KTS), AND A 142243Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 62 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES, WHICH IS PRODUCING
AN ERRATIC, QUASISTATIONARY TRACK MOTION. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE POLEWARD. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO A PEAK OF
90 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 165.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 165.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.1S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.3S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.0S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.2S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.9S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.1S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 165.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTHWEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN 150503Z SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED
SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES. TC 15P HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER.
HOWEVER, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 20-25
KNOTS, HAS RESTRAINED THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. TC 15P IS MOVING
SLOWLY WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND THIS SLOW MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE NEAR-TERM. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND ESTABLISH ITSELF AS
THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, MOVING TC 15P ON A SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY BY TAU 48. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED AS NEAR-TERM MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOLLOWED BY
COOLING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET THE POSITIVE
INFLUENCE OF AN IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL STEERING SCENARIO,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TRACK DIRECTION. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND A
GROUPING OF MODEL TRACKERS THAT INCLUDES THE ECMWF, UKMET AND GALWEM
GLOBAL MODELS. GIVEN THE NOTED MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z
AND 160900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 164.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 164.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.5S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.7S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.9S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.8S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.0S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.5S 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.8S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 164.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A DEVELOPING RAGGED EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 151008Z ASCAT PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 15P HAS
CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER.
HOWEVER, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 15-20
KNOTS, HAS RESTRAINED THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. TC 15P HAS TURNED
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THAT
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ALTHOUGH FORWARD TRANSLATIONAL
SPEED WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLOW DUE TO COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF
AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AFTER TAU 36, PUSHING THE SYSTEM
ON A MORE RAPID, POLEWARD TRAJECTORY. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED AS NEAR-TERM MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOLLOWED BY
COOLING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET THE POSITIVE
INFLUENCE OF AN IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL STEERING SCENARIO,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TRACK DIRECTION. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THE
PREVIOUS TWO JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECASTS AND A GROUPING OF MODEL
TRACKERS THAT INCLUDES THE A MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE NOTED MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND
161500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 164.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.7S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.0S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.4S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.2S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.3S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.6S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.8S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 164.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RELATIVELY RAGGED SYSTEM, WITH WEAK
FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SEQUENCE OF HIGH RESOLUTION 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGES BETWEEN 151548Z AND 151815Z, EACH DEPICTING A LOWER-LEVEL
EYE FEATURE SLIGHTLY DECOUPLED FROM A WEAK CYCLONIC SIGNATURE AT THE
UPPER-LEVELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER BASED ON A 151542Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 15P LIES IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE AREA, WITH MODERATE VWS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND WARM (29
CELSIUS) SSTS. THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND HAS STOPPED, DUE TO
SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS DUE TO THE
SLOW FORWARD MOTION, AND THE OFFSETTING OF THE OUTFLOW BY VWS. TC
15P IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 15P WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT REMAINS IN A WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. DURING THIS PERIOD, INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
STAGNANT AS COOLER UPWELLED WATERS AND VWS CONTINUE TO OFFSET ROBUST
OUTFLOW. BEYOND TAU 36, A STR BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST AND
RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD LEADING TC 15P TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWEST AND OVER WARMER WATERS, VWS ALSO
WEAKENS, ALLOWING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION PEAKING AT 90 KNOTS AT
TAU 96. THEREAFTER EXPECT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST AS VWS INCREASES, SSTS APPROACH 27 CELSIUS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT ALL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREEING ON
THE OVERALL SLOW SPEED THROUGH TAU 36 AND SUBSEQUENT ACCELERATION
SOUTHWEST AFTER THIS POINT. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WIDENS IN THE
LATER TAUS HOWEVER, WITH A 320 NM SPREAD BETWEEN OUTLIERS NAVGEM AND
GFS AT TAU 120. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK AND CLOSE THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD IN LATER TAUS THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND
162100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 163.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 163.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.6S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.9S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.7S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.7S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.0S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.4S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 163.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-
SPECTRAL DEPICTS A BROAD SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO
THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH POOR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED INFRARED LOOP. NO
MICROWAVE IMAGES WERE AVAILABLE SO THE POSITION WAS PLACED TO THE
EAST OF MID-LEVEL TURNING BASED ON THE EARLIER OBSERVATION OF
DECOUPLING BETWEEN THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 70 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON A 160040Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 72 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THAT TC 15P IS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING
OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE OVER ALL
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS PREVENTING ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION AT THIS TIME. TC OMA IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT CAUSING SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.
THE SLOW, GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALSO CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWEST SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASE WHILE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AROUND TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THE WILL
PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS
SHOWING SLOW SPEED THROUGH TAU 24 AND SUBSEQUENT ACCELERATION
SOUTHWEST AFTER THIS POINT. BEYOND TAU 48, THE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO DIVERGE, REACHING A SPREAD OF OVER 300NM BY TAU 120.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, AND THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD IN
THE LONG TERM, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 164.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 164.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.1S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.0S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.9S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.0S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.5S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.2S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 164.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 15P HAS BECOME GENERALLY MORE ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH FLARING CONVECTION BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED INTO SYMMETRICAL BANDS. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
OBSCURED BY HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 160455Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTS A BROAD LLCC, WHICH HAS BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER-LEVELS SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 70 KNOTS, AND IS ASSESSED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A KNES CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T4.5 (77 KNOTS), A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS), AN AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS AND A SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
POINT SOURCE THAT WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST, NOW SETTLING IN NEARLY
DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. THIS HAS HAD THE EFFECT OF REDUCING
THE VWS, WHILE ALSO IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW, COMBINING TO EFFECT
THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, THESE POSITIVE FACTORS ARE BEING
OFFSET BY THE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER FORWARD TRANSLATION, WHICH IS
ALLOWING FOR THE UPWELLING OF MUCH COOLER WATERS, RESULTING IN A
STEADY INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. THE CURRENT MOTION IS A VERY SLOW TWO
KNOTS, OR QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT IN A COL REGION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
WEAK STEERING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WHILE MAINTAINING INTENSITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
OFFSETTING ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. BEYOND TAU 24, A DEVELOPING
STR TO THE EAST WILL SERVE TO EJECT TC 15P ONTO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK AND ALLOWING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO WARMER
WATERS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 90 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AS IT
BEGINS TO TAP INTO A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH.
THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS AND VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TAU 36, WITH ALL
CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOWING THE SLOW INITIAL MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN
ACCELERATION TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 24. THERE IS HOWEVER A
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK FORECASTS AFTER TAU 48, WITH THE
NAVGEM MODEL TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST BY TAU 120, AND THE GFS
INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SYSTEM AND TURNING TC 15P
SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE
TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS
TRACK. OVERALL DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAUS, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z,
162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 164.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 164.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.6S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.2S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.3S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.4S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.3S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.9S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.8S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 164.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 15P CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED, WITH STRONG
BANDING FEATURES FORMING AND WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 161056Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWING A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
70 KNOTS, IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND NFFN, AND A PGTW CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A 161240Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 69 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28-
29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW LOCATED
OVERTOP OF THE LLCC PROVIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DESPITE
THE ENVIRONMENT BEING GENERALLY FAVORABLE, THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS CAUSING THE UPWELLING OF
COOLER WATERS PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION. THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION
OF THE SYSTEM IS THE RESULT OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 12, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER
WARMER WATERS AND INTENSIFYING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO
PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AS IT DEVELOPS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS AND VWS INCREASES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS
SHOWING THE SLOW INITIAL MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 12. AFTER TAU 48, MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE
EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO OVER 400 MILES BY TAU 120. THE PRINCIPLE
OUTLIER IS NAVGEM, WITH A SOLUTION THAT TRACKS SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER
WEST THAN THE OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND HEDGED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. DUE TO THE INITIAL QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OF THE SYSTEM,
COMBINED WITH THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LATER TAUS LENDS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z,
170900Z AND 171500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 164.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 164.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.7S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.6S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.8S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.0S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.9S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.4S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.4S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 164.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED
SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 161803Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T4.0
(65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND HEDGED BETWEEN A DVORAK CI ESTIMATE OF T4.5
(77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 63 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 15P IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS). THE EAST TO WEST SHEAR IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND ENHANCING CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE LLCC. TC 15P ALSO HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 27 AND 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 15P IS DRIFTING EASTWARD AS A RESULT OF A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BUILD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND ALLOW TC 15P TO BEGIN TO TRACK
TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE AS TC 15P TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. BY TAU
24 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE, ALLOWING
FOR TC 15P TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY, EVENTUALLY REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, DUE
TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND
172100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 164.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 164.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.1S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.3S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.5S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.6S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.6S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.4S 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 26.6S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 164.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 162204Z METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITY
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 15P IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS). THE EAST TO WEST SHEAR
CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND ENHANCE
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LLCC. TC 15P CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 15P REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
AND HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD AS A RESULT OF A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BUILD OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND ALLOW TC 15P TO INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AS TC 15P TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, TC 15P WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 18, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE, ALLOWING TC 15P TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY,
EVENTUALLY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A
SPREAD OF ONLY 58 NM. HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT BY TAU 120 WITH A SPREAD OF NEARLY 510 NM. DUE TO THE WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 164.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.1S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.4S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.7S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.9S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 22.9S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 25.4S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 29.6S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 164.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE TC WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH OF A RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
CIRCULATION IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE
IN THE 170437Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS AND T4.0/65KTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD
BIAS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 27-28 CELSIUS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TC 15P HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD FROM A
COL AREA AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSUMED STEERING.
AFTER TAU 96, TC 15P WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD. VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND ALLOW A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN
TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 120. AT THAT STAGE, TC OMA WILL ALSO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AFTERWARD THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS SPREAD OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 164.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.2S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.4S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.8S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.9S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.9S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.8S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 30.3S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 164.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC OMA HAS, FOR THE MOST PART, MAINTAINED ITS EXPANSIVE
FEEDER BANDS WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A
LARGE, RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
CIRCULATION IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE LLC
IN THE 171034Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS AND T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND
REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 27-28
CELSIUS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND ALLOW A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN
TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 120, TC OMA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AFTERWARD THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. ONE NOTABLE OUTLIER IS ECMWF THAT
TRACKS THE VORTEX DUE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 164.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 164.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.3S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.5S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.0S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.2S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.9S 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 25.7S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 30.3S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 164.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH AN EXPOSED
LLCC AND POCKETS OF FLARING BUT WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE WELL
DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC, AND SUPPORTED BY A 171727Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH ALSO SHOWED THE GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF THE
LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO
55 KNOTS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
KNES AND PGTW OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE
OF 59 KNOTS. TC 15P LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW
TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE NEARBY. HOWEVER, A DAY AND A HALF OF
QUASISTATIONARY MOVEMENT HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT UPWELLING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT A LARGE COOL POCKET OF SSTS (AS LOW AS 24 CELSIUS) AROUND
THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO THE DOWNTREND IN INTENSITY. TC 15P IS TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR
TO THE EAST. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE ON THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STR. DURING THIS PERIOD, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
FROM THE COLD POOL INTO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WATERS AND BEGINS TO TAP
INTO THE DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH,
EXPECT IT TO INTENSIFY STEADILY, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS AT TAU
48. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE STR
AXIS AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO COMBINED INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM BEGINS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF, WHICH REMAINS THE
SINGLE OUTLIER TAKING THE TRACK WEST TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN COAST
BEYOND TAU 72, LEADING TO A 700 NM SPREAD BETWEEN OUTLIERS AT TAU 120.
DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE HISTORICALLY WELL-PERFORMING
ECMWF AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 164.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 164.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.3S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.4S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.5S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.7S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.5S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 26.7S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 30.9S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 163.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM WEST OF PORT
VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
WEAKENED SYSTEM WITH WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
INTO A VERY BROAD PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED
AT WARNING TIME TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC, BUT IS GROWING IN
EXTENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EXPOSED LLCC AND SUPPORTED BY A 172214Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED AGAIN TO A GENEROUS 50
KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ANALYSIS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES, PHFO AND NFFN AND
T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE
SHOWED T2.9 (39 KNOTS) WHILE A SATCON ESTIMATE INDICATED 52 KNOTS AT
1720000Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE AREA, WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW. THE ONLY INHIBITOR AT THE CURRENT TIME IS THE SST, WHICH IS
STILL RELATIVELY COOL (24-25 CELSIUS) DUE TO UPWELLING. HOWEVER, AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE COOL UPWELLED POOL, SSTS WILL
INCREASE TO 27-28 CELSIUS AND SUPPORT REINTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF SAMOA. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BEYOND THIS POINT, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES
WEST OF FIJI AND REORIENTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PUSH TC 15P ONTO A
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT INTO WARMER WATERS, IT IS EXPECTED TO
REINTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48 UNDER FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW AND VWS CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT
RAPIDLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THOUGH TAU 48,
WITH ONLY THE NAVGEM AND ECMF SOLUTIONS DIFFERING SIGNIFICANTLY, LYING
TO THE WEST OF THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. BEYOND TAU 72, THE BULK OF
THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, WITH SOME
VARIATIONS IN THE SPEED OF ADVANCE AFTER THE TURN SOUTHEAST. ECMWF AND
NAVGEM HOWEVER SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST, AWAY FROM
THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE, LEADING TO A 850NM SPREAD BY TAU 120.
DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 163.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 163.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.3S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.4S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.3S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 22.1S 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.7S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 26.2S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.9S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 163.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO UNRAVEL AND WEAKEN AS
EVIDENCED BY WARMING CONVECTIVE TOPS AND EXPANDING FRAGMENTED RAIN
BANDS. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE MAINTAINED A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS FROM
PGTW AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15P IS UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN A POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 24-25 CELSIUS, A RESULT OF TC-INDUCED
UPWELLING. THE NET ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECT IS WEAKENING INTENSITY. TC
OMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL ROUND
THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING SSTS AND INCREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65
KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL
ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 45 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST.
CONCURRENTLY, AROUND TAU 96, TC 15P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AND BY TAU 120 WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD
CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 THEN SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTERWARD. NOTABLE OUTLIERS INCLUDE NAVGEM TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE, AND ECMWF SUGGESTING A 180 DEGREE EQUATORWARD TRACK
REVERSAL AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 163.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 163.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.5S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.4S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.1S 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 24.0S 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.3S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 29.0S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 162.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO RE-CONSOLIDATE AS
RAIN BANDS WRAP TIGHTER TOWARD A BROAD AND RAGGED, BUT DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE TC REMAINS EXPANSIVE WITH THE BULK OF
THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE LLC FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP AND
LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE IN THE 181044Z AMSU IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 181014Z 25KM
RESOLUTION PARTIAL PASS THAT SHOWS NUMEROUS 50-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TC 15P IS UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS
PARTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OUT
OF A POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND IS
NOW TRACKING OVER 26-27 CELSIUS SSTS. TC OMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARMING SSTS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL A
MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE CYCLONE
DOWN TO 45 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. CONCURRENTLY, AROUND TAU 96, TC
15P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 120 WILL
TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND
FIELD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48
THEN SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARD. NOTABLE OUTLIERS INCLUDE
NAVGEM TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, AND ECMWF SUGGESTING A 180
DEGREE EQUATORWARD TRACK REVERSAL AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THESE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 162.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.8S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.6S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 22.2S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 24.3S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 26.3S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.3S 161.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 28.1S 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 162.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS
CONVECTION INTENSIFIES AND RAIN BANDS WRAP INTO A RAGGED EYE-LIKE
FEATURE SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE TC
REMAINS EXPANSIVE WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION WITHIN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON A 181717Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF PGTW 4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND KNES 4.5 (77 KNOTS), THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 60 KNOTS, GIVEN THE
RAGGED NATURE OF THE LARGE EYE-LIKE FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 15P IS UNDER LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER FAVORABLE (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC 15P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE ALONG AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING SSTS AND
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL A MODEST INTENSIFICATION THAT
WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SSTS WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO 50 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AROUND TAU 96, TC 15P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND BY TAU 120 WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL AS A STORM-FORCE COLD-
CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48, BUT SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTERWARD. SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS INCLUDE THE ECMI, WHICH INDICATES A
TRACK OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA AND EGRI, WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM TO THE
EAST. THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP
TO TAU 48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z
AND 192100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 162.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.5S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3S 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.1S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.3S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 25.3S 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 26.9S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.8S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 162.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES AND RAIN BANDS WRAP INTO A
RAGGED EYE FEATURE SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A
182303Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF PGTW 4.5
(77 KNOTS) AND KNES 5.0 (90 KNOTS), THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED
TO 75 KNOTS AS IT ENTERS A PHASE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, BUT THE
PERSISTANTLY RAGGED STRUCTURE OF THE EYE AND CONVECTION WILL SERVE
AS A LIMITING FACTOR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15P IS UNDER
LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER
FAVORABLE (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC 15P
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL ROUND THE
STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE ALONG AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING SSTS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
FUEL AN INTENSIFICATION TO 85 KTS AT TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO 50 KNOTS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AROUND TAU 96, TC 15P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 120 WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL
AS A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48, BUT
SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
ACCOUNTS FOR THIS WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION BEYOND TAU 72.
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS INCLUDE THE ECMI, WHICH INDICATES A TRACK OVER
EASTERN AUSTRALIA AND EGRI, WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM FAR TO THE EAST.
THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU
48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND
200300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 20.0S 162.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 162.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.9S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.6S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.3S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.3S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.5S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.8S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.7S 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 161.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, RAGGED EYE. A 190551Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5
(77 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST, NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED
BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN
SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPENS OVER
NEW ZEALAND. THIS ALLOWS THE STR TO QUICKLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM LEADING TO SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND, POTENTIALLY, A PERIOD OF
QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE
(HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL, CONVERGENT
WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN
26C). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 162.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 162.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.0S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.9S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.9S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 25.9S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.5S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.6S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 161.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, RAGGED EYE. A 191132Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 75
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.5
TO 5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST, NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST AND DEEPENS OVER NEW ZEALAND. THIS ALLOWS THE STR TO QUICKLY
BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LEADING TO SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND,
POTENTIALLY, A PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS
LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85
KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL,
CONVERGENT WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST
(LESS THAN 26C). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 161.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.7S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.4S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.2S 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.2S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 26.0S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 26.1S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.0S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 161.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 606 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, RAGGED EYE. A 191705Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KNOTS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
4.5 TO 5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS STILL
HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
AND DEEPENS OVER NEW ZEALAND. AT TAU 72, THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY IN A MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, CONVERGENT WESTERLIES AND HIGHER SHEAR CAUSING IT TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE
(HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY AFTER
TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 21.4S 161.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 161.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.0S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
ADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.7S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.6S 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.8S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 26.3S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.5S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.3S 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 161.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEGRADING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LARGE,
RAGGED AND POORLY STRUCTURED EYE. A 192243Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS HEDGED BELOW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) BASED ON A WEAKENING
TREND IN THE STORM STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5
TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE STR
REORIENTS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT TAU 72,
THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME QUASISTATIONARY IN A MORE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, CONVERGENT WESTERLIES
AND HIGHER SHEAR CAUSING IT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE A WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST RECURVATURE AFTER TAU 72 WHILE
THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU
72. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 161.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 161.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.2S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.9S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.8S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 24.9S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.1S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.9S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.3S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 160.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286 NM WEST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LARGE (ABOUT 40 TO 45NM
DIAMETER) RAGGED EYE. A 200537Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES A WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT
70 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.0/4.5 (65/77
KNOTS). TC 15P CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DESPITE GENERALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW). ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (26 TO
27C) WITH A SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND NO EVIDENCE OF DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. THEREFORE, IT IS LIKELY THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO
INTENSIFY DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE EYE. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST AND DEEPENS OVER NEW ZEALAND. THIS ALLOWS THE STR TO QUICKLY
BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LEADING TO SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND,
POTENTIALLY, A PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS
LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS DUE TO THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
AFTER TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS DEGRADE WITH INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL, CONVERGENT
WESTERLIES, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND
POTENTIALLY DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 120. DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 72, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
TRACK EQUATORWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z,
202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 21.9S 160.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 160.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.6S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.3S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.2S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 25.2S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.2S 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.1S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.7S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 160.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECAYING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 201111Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD,
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
60 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.5/4.0 (55/65
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO. TC 15P CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DESPITE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW). ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE (26C) WITH A SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND NO
EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THEREFORE, IT IS LIKELY THE SYSTEM
IS STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE EYE. TC 15P
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURN
WESTWARD AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. TC 15P WILL WEAKEN
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLE DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 72 WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. INCREASING ENTRAINMENT
OF COOLER, DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEAKENING
INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 22.1S 160.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 160.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.8S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.6S 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 24.7S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 25.0S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.7S 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.7S 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.6S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 160.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM NORTHEAST
OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD AND RAGGED EYE FEATURE. A 201652Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDED AN EXCELLENT VIEW OF THE LOWER LEVEL EYE
FEATURE, AND PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND
IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, IN LIGHT OF A
SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 61 KNOTS. TC 15P LIES IN AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DUE TO MARGINAL SSTS JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 26 CELSIUS AND THE LARGE NATURE OF THE CENTRAL
CIRCULATION. TC 15P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF FIJI. THIS
SOUTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 36 HOURS, AFTER
WHICH THE WILL SLOW AND BEGIN TRACKING WEST AS A STRONG RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 72, THIS RIDGE MOVES UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA, DRIVING TC 15P ONTO A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
15P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE LOW VWS AND STRONG OUTFLOW OFFSET THE COOL SSTS, WHICH
WILL HOVER AROUND 26 CELSIUS. THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS COOL, DRY AND STABLE AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN INTO THE
SYSTEM, ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 22.5S 160.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 160.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.2S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.9S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.7S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 25.3S 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.8S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.1S 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 23.4S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 159.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM NORTHEAST OF
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A VERY RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SUPPORTED BY A 202222Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON
ANALYSIS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS), A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS AND AN ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (33 KNOTS). TC 15P IS RAPIDLY
DECAYING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF FIJI. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE AND COOL
SSTS HOVERING AT OR JUST ABOVE 26 CELSIUS ARE COMBINING TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AT ROUGHLY
4 TO 5 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR.
BEYOND TAU 48 A STRONG STR BUILDS IN OVER TASMANIA BLOCKING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. TRAPPED BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST, TC 15P BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER TAU 72, GENERALLY
DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE OVER TASMANIA MOVES
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN EXPERIENCE A SHORT INTENSIFICATION PHASE
BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 AS IT TAPS INTO A DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AND BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS. THEREAFTER,
INCREASED VWS COMBINED WITH ENTRAINMENT OF COOL, STABLE AIR FROM THE
SOUTH WILL SERVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED, WITH THE NAVGEM, EGRR AND
GALWEM MODELS SHOWING A TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48, WITH
NAVGEM BRINGING THE SYSTEM IN A BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP BACK TO
THE CENTRAL CORAL SEA BY TAU 120. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. EVEN HERE HOWEVER THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT, WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION TAKING THE SYSTEM
WELL TO THE NORTH TOWARDS CAIRNS BY TAU 120, WHILE GFS PERFORMS A
CLOCKWISE LOOP BACK TO THE SOUTH ENDING UP EAST OF BRISBANE BY THE
SAME TIME. IN LIGHT OF THE BIFURCATION AND EXTREME VARIANCE IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 038//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 159.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 159.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.3S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.3S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 25.8S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.2S 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.0S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.8S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 159.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS
EVIDENCED BY UNRAVELING RAIN BANDS LEADNING TOWARD AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LLC IN THE 210524Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5-10 KNOT) VWS AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE
AND MARGINAL SSTS AT 26 CELSIUS ARE OFFSETTING THE FAVORABLE VWS AND
OUTFLOW, RESULTING IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINED INTENSITY.
TC OMA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU
24, A SECONDARY STR APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR
STEERING AND RESULT IN YET ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STORM
MOTION. AFTER TAU 48, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SSTS TO
DECREASE, EXACERBATED BY UPWELLING AS A RESULT OF THE QS MOTION. THIS
COMBINATION WILL ACCELERATE THE DETERIORATION OF TC OMA, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD
AFTER TAU 24 WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS IN RESPONSE TO THE COMPETING
STEERING MECHANISMS. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 24.1S 159.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S 159.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 25.1S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.0S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 26.6S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.4S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.3S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 159.6E.
TROPICAL (TC) CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 418 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTIVE TOPS ALONG THE FEEDER BANDS AND IN THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAVE WARMED; HOWEVER, A 211051Z ASCAT DIRECT PASS STILL
SHOWS WIND BARBS UP TO 45 KNOTS IN THE IMMEDIATE OUTER PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW (5-10 KNOT) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER,
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND MARGINAL SSTS AT 26 CELSIUS ARE OFFSETTING THE FAVORABLE VWS AND
OUTFLOW, RESULTING IN A WEAK ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, LEADING TO
SUSTAINED INTENSITY AT BEST. TC OMA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK
POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, A SECONDARY STR APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND RESULT IN YET
ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STORM MOTION. CONCURRENTLY, THE VWS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE, EXACERBATED BY UPWELLING
AS A RESULT OF THE QS MOTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL ACCELERATE THE
DETERIORATION OF TC OMA, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AFTER TAU 24 WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS
IN RESPONSE TO THE COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS. IN VIEW OF THIS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS HELD
SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND
221500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 24.7S 159.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 159.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.8S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 26.4S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.8S 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 26.3S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.8S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 159.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 376 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL SHALLOW CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 211640Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE, WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL CENTER NOW DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 25NM TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOWER-LEVEL CENTER, WHICH CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG
WEST-NORTHWEST VWS VECTOR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 15P LIES IN AN OVERALL MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS)
VWS, BEING OFFSET BY LOW (LESS THAN 26 CELSIUS) SSTS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE WEST. TC 15P CONTINUES
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STR CENTERED TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH, BLOCKING FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT BEYOND TAU 24. AFTER TAU
24, THE SYSTEM TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEW
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN
AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, INCREASING VWS AND MASS CONVERGENCE FROM THE
WEST COMBINE TO ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU 72.
ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS AGREE ON THE LIMITED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT
AND SUBSEQUENT TURN TO THE NORTH, WITH VARIATIONS ON WHICH WAY THE
TRACK WILL TURN (CLOCKWISE OR COUNTERCLOCKWISE). THE JTWC OFFICIAL
TRACK LIES JUST INSIDE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, AND TURNS THE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST THEN NORTH AS THIS SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, IN VIEW OF
THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND
222100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 25.7S 159.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 159.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.8S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 27.4S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.9S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.2S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.7S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 159.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 346 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 15P HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
WITH A DISTINCT DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVELS, EVIDENCED BY
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. A 212233Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS. WHILE A 212204Z ASCAT-A PASS
INDICATED AN AREA OF 45 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER,
THESE ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A FLARE OF CONVECTION IN THE AREA AND
NOT DIRECTLY INDICATIVE OF THE STORM INTENSITY. ADDITIONALLY, A BROAD
BAND OF 45 KNOT WINDS WAS PRESENT ABOUT 100NM TO THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER BUT AGAIN THESE ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
ACTUAL STORM INTENSITY BUT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW. THE PGTW
AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T2.5 (35 KNOTS) WHILE AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE WAS 2.4 (34 KNOTS) AT THE ANALYSIS
TIME, ALL OF WHICH SUPPORT THE 40 KNOT INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 15P IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH
OFFSETTING FACTORS OF LOW VWS (10-15 KNOTS) AND STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW VERSUS COOL SSTS (25-26 CELSIUS), ENTRAINMENT OF DRY, STABLE
AIR AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP,
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR CENTERED FAR TO THE EAST. OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, TC 15P HAS STARTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A STRENGTHENING STR BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK FURTHER POLEWARD
MOVEMENT AND SHIFT THE TRACK OF TC 15P TO THE NORTH. AS THIS DEEP
RIDGE BUILDS IN, BY TAU 36 IT BEGINS TO CHOKE OFF THE ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING VWS AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AND ULTIMATELY
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT
THOUGH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE IN THE GENERAL SCENARIO WITH NAVGEM
BEING THE SOLE REMAINING WESTWARD TURNING MODEL. WITH THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 042//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 27.0S 159.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 159.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.6S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.0S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 27.5S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.2S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 159.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM EAST OF
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS RAIN BANDS UNRAVELED AND CENTRAL
CONVECTION COLLAPSED, PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE
PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A DEFINED LLC
FEATURE IN THE 220425Z SSMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 15P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN STR OVER COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THAT FOR NOW, ARE
PARTLY OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY TAU 24, A SECONDARY
STR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND SLOWLY NUDGE THE
CYCLONE EQUATORWARD. THE RESULTING QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION WILL
RESULT IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 36, POSSIBLY SOONER,
DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AS THE SECONDARY STR ASSUMES STEERING AND COOLING
SSTS AS A RESULT OF QS UPWELLING WILL WEAKEN TC OMA, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 27.7S 159.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 159.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 28.3S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 28.0S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.1S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 27.8S 160.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367 NM EAST OF
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME ALMOST FULLY
EXPOSED WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE
LLC. RAIN BANDS CONTINUED TO UNRAVEL AND HAD BECOME MORE FRAGMENTED.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EXPOSED LLC
IN THE EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A RAGGED AND ELONGATED LLC FEATURE
IN THE 221059Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T2.0/30KTS TO T2.7/37KTS. TC 15P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN STR OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THAT FOR NOW, ARE PARTLY OFFSET BY A
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY TAU 12, A SECONDARY STR FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND SLOWLY TURN THE CYCLONE
EQUATORWARD. THE RESULTING QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION WILL RESULT
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, POSSIBLY SOONER, DIMINISHING
OUTFLOW AS THE SECONDARY STR ASSUMES STEERING AND COOLING SSTS AS A
RESULT OF QS UPWELLING WILL WEAKEN TC OMA, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH AN EVENTUAL
EQUATORWARD TRACK BUT DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DEGREE OF TURN AND
ALONG TRACK SPEEDS. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 044//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 27.4S 160.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
255 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 160.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 27.2S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 26.4S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 161.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM EAST OF
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM DEVOID OF CONVECTION AND
A FULLY EXPOSED, BROAD AND DIFFUSE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A 221832Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING WEAK
RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) IN LIGHT OF A PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS FROM 221039Z WHICH INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF 35-40 KNOT
WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15P LIES IN A
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS, LOW
SSTS OF 26 CELSIUS AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSETTING THE CONTINUED ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC
15P IS NOW TRACKING EASTWARD AS STEERING HAS SHIFTED TO THE STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
SYSTEM WILL CURVE EQUATORWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS DEEP RIDGE WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY,
LEADING TO A FURTHER WEAKENINGM, WHICH COUPLED WITH ENTRAINMENT OF
DRY, STABLE AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER
BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH SOME VARIANCE IN THE WIDTH OF THE EQUATORWARD
TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES JUST EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 045//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 28.2S 161.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 161.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 27.9S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 161.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED CONVECTION AND A
FULLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC. THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALLER CIRCULATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LLCC HOWEVER THEY ARE LESS DEFINED THAN THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) DUE TO THE 221039Z
ASCAT IMAGE THAT SHOWED 35-40 KNOT WIND BARBS. IN THE HOURS SINCE
THE ASCAT PASS THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF
STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS, IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE, AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH COOL (26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL THAT CONTINUES TO PREVENT A RAPID DISSIPATION TREND. TC 15P
IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AS STEERING HAS SHIFTED DUE TO THE STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THE
SYSTEM WILL CURVE EQUATORWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE STR BUILDING IN WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS PREVENTING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE. ADDITIONAL FACTORS INCLUDING DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SUSTAINED STRONG VWS WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION
OVER WATER BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EQUATORWARD TURN WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING
AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 19 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_oma.htm | Updated: 7 March 2019 |