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Tropical Cyclone OWEN
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Tropical Cyclone OWEN Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 301530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7S 154.8E TO 15.0S 150.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.9S 154.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 155.6E IS NOW LOCATED AT 10.9S 154.6E, APPROXIMATELY 333
NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301102Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND SCATTERED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS).
MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AND AGREE ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY IN THE NEAR TERM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011530Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 011530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301521ZNOV18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0S 154.4E TO 15.6S 154.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 154.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 153.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 154.3E, APPROXIMATELY
345 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011124Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A 011123Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 5-10 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER AND A LIMITED AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH IN THE
CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND THEN MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
TO GO EITHER SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHWEST. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021530Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011521ZDEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 154.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 154.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.8S 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.3S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.7S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.0S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.0S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.8S 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 154.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE RAINBANDS PRIMARILY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION FLARING
OVER THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON A 012232Z ASCAT PASS THAT REVEALS A
SWATH OF 30 KT WINDS AND A SMALLER AREA OF 35 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CENTER, IN THE CONVECTION. TC 05P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS
BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DUE
TO AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND
WRAPPING, ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO SUSTAIN ITSELF.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM, 28-30 CELSIUS, SUPPORTING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TC 05P IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES ALMOST IMMEDIATELY, WITH GALWEM
AND THE UKMET MODEL MOVING TC 05P TO THE EAST AFTER TAU 12, AND
NAVGEM INSCRIBING A LOOP TOWARDS THE EQUATOR THEN MOVING TC 05P EAST
AFTER TAU 96. THESE EASTWARD TRACKS CONTRAVENE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
STEMMING FROM RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 72.
GFS, ECMWF, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, HWRF, AND CTCX PREDICT A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK INITIALLY, WITH VARYING DEGREES OF A SHARP TURN
TO WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 36, STEERED BY THE RIDGING
AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD MOTION UNTIL AFTER TAU 24 AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR
BUILDS IN EQUATORWARD OF TC 05P, THEN TURNS TC 05P ALMOST DUE
WESTWARD. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEAR TERM
DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SSTS, REACHING A PEAK OF 45 KTS
BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND DRIER AIR ADVECTED
IN FROM HIGHER LATITUDES BY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ERODE THE
SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. THE EASTWARD-TRACKING
MODELS, WHICH DO NOT ACCURATELY CAPTURE THE STEERING FLOW, MAINTAIN
A HIGHER INTENSITY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY AND MULTIPLE FORECAST SCENARIOS PORTRAYED BY NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 011530).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 020900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 14.1S 154.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 154.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.6S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.1S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.6S 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.9S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.0S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 154.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 536 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SMALL (90 NM DIAMETER) AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER;
HOWEVER, THE SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE BROADER
SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI
AMD A 020613Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE SMALL
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED
JUST ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.5 (35 KTS) SUPPORTED BY A CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KTS). TC 05P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DUE TO AN ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND SOME EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT DUE TO A COL REGION
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THERE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM, 28-30 CELSIUS, SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 05P IS
NOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AN STR ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER
TAU 12, TC OWEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN WESTWARD
AS THE 700MB STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS, UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND VWS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TC 05P PUSHES INTO THE UPPER LEVEL COL
REGION CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOW IN AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWARD AND THEN WESTWARD RECURVATURE;
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL LARGE DISAGREEMENT (175 NM SPREAD AT TAU
72) ON TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
ARE EASTWARD OUTLIERS WHILE GALWEM AND UKMET ARE NORTHWESTWARD
OUTLIERS SHOWING A SHARP AND IMMEDIATE RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND AFOREMENTIONED MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED TRACK DIRECTION AFTER
TAU 12 TO WESTWARD INSTEAD OF EASTWARD.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 14.6S 154.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 154.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.3S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.7S 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.9S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.0S 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.9S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 154.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL (100 NM DIAMETER) MASS OF
DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS FLARED UP OVER THE LLCC WITHIN THE LAST 6
HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING IS WRAPPING INTO THE MASS OF CONVECTION
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 021103Z METOP-A
MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED JUST ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND A CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF
T2.3 (33 KTS) BASED ON GOOD CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 05P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE (10-20 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS
INHIBITED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SUPPORTING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TC 05P IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NER TO THE NORTHEAST AND A STR TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 12, TC OWEN IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN WESTWARD AS THE 700MB STR BUILDS
IN TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 24, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AND VWS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TC 05P PUSHES
INTO THE UPPER LEVEL COL REGION CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD RECURVATURE; HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL LARGE DISAGREEMENT (180 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72) ON THE
TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE ARE EASTERN
OUTLIERS WHILE GALWEM AND UKMET ARE NORTHWESTERN OUTLIERS SHOWING A
SHARP AND IMMEDIATE RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF AND THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z
AND 031500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 154.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 154.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.9S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.1S 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.2S 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.0S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 154.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 534 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BURGEONING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) COVERING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CDO. A 021724Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS TO THE EAST OF THE
LLCC, WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS AGREES WITH THE KNES AND ABRF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND A 021007Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 46 KTS, AND IS ABOVE THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS).
TC 05P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SUPPORTING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TC 05P HAS TURNED SOUTHWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA.
AFTER TAU 12, TC OWEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS THE 700MB STR
BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 24, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND VWS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TC
05P PUSHES INTO THE UPPER LEVEL COL REGION CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE
WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM, AND THEN A TURN TOWARDS THE
WEST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET, WHICH TURNS SHARPLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48. THERE IS STILL LARGE DISAGREEMENT (205 NM
SPREAD AT TAU 72) ON THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN AMONG
MODELS THAT FAVOR THE WESTWARD TRACK SCENARIO. GFS AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE ARE EASTERN OUTLIERS, SHOWING A JOG TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TAU 24, THEN A SHARP KINK IN THE TRACK TO A WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. GALWEM AND NAVGEM ARE NORTHWESTERN OUTLIERS
AND FURTHER RECURVE THE SYSTEM EQUATORWARD AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NAVGEM MODEL FIELDS SHOW A
CIRCULATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, AND RESULTING
DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) CAUSING RECURVATURE AND
EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR NAVGEM AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ECMWF, MEANWHILE, PREDICTS AN ALMOST DUE SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND A LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
WHICH IS PLACED BETWEEN ECMWF AND THE OTHER WESTWARD-TRACKING MODEL
MEMBERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 155.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 155.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.1S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.2S 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.3S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.4S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.1S 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 155.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 536 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A COMPACT AREA OF CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO) OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND AMBIGUITIES
FROM A BULLSEYE 022316Z ASCAT PASS. A 022315Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE
LLCC, WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS AGREES WITH MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS), AND IS CLOSE TO A 022314Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 48 KTS. THE 022316Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED 35-39 KT WIND
BARBS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER, AND SEVERAL 40-44 KT WIND BARBS;
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. TC 05P IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED BY A POINT SOURCE ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC
05P HAS MEANDERED SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD IN AN AMBIGUOUS STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 05P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT TERM UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 50 KTS AT TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24, UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND VWS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE, LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY
TAU 72. AFTER TAU 12, TC OWEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS THE
700MB STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM, AND
THEN A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET, WHICH
TURNS SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 24. THERE IS STILL LARGE
DISAGREEMENT (275 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72) ON THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS
OF THE TURN AMONG MODELS THAT FAVOR THE WESTWARD TRACK SCENARIO.
HWRF, GFS, AND COAMPS-GFS SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED EASTWARD JOG
THROUGH TAU 12 THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GALWEM AND NAVGEM CONTINUE TO
PREDICT A STRONG RECURVE TOWARDS THE EQUATOR THEN AN EVENTUAL
EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NAVGEM MODEL FIELDS SHOW A CIRCULATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH, AND RESULTING DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) CAUSING
THE RECURVATURE AND EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR NAVGEM AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED BETWEEN ECMWF AND THE OTHER
WESTWARD-TRACKING MODEL MEMBERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
030000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND
040300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 155.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 155.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.1S 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.4S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.6S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.6S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.0S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 155.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 563 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH A COMPACT CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) REGION OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 030600Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45 TO 55 KTS). TC 05P HAS
CONTINUED TO MEANDER SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA. ITS
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH 15 TO
20 KNOTS WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW EXTENDING TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 CELSIUS) WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LOW
AND UNFAVORABLE. AS TC 05P CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST, IT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER THESE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 55 KTS BY TAU 12. ALSO BY TAU 12,
TC OWEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS
THE 700MB STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM RECURVES, IT
WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VWS LEADING TO STEADY
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. ALTHOUGH ALL NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN IN AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD RECURVATURE
SCENARIO, THERE IS STILL LARGE VARIATION (210 NM SPREAD AT TAU
72) ON THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. IT IS ALSO WORTH
NOTING THAT SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING GALWEM AND NAVGEM BRING THE
SYSTEM BACK TO THE WEST AFTER DISSIPATION; THESE MODEL FIELDS
APPEAR TO DEPICT DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A SECOND
CIRCULATION THAT FORMS TO THE EAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE GRADUAL
RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND
040900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 155.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 155.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.1S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.4S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.7S 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.7S 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 155.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 579 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD (250 NM DIAMETER) MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING OVER THE LLCC AND EXTENDING POLEWARD AND EASTWARD. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED
EIR AND A 031043Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING AN ELONGATED LLC WITH
THE HIGHEST WINDS CONCENTRATED TO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.7 (45 TO 59 KTS).
TC 05P HAS CONTINUED SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND
ANOTHER STR TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA. ITS ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
EXTENDING TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28
CELSIUS) WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LOW AND UNFAVORABLE. AS TC 05P
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 12,
TC OWEN IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
700MB STR BUILDS IN AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. AS
THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD, IT WILL TRACK DIRECTLY INTO THE
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES, LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION
BY TAU 48. ALTHOUGH ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A
WESTWARD TURN, THERE IS STILL LARGE VARIATION (120 NM SPREAD AT TAU
48) ON THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING
THAT SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING GALWEM, UKMET AND NAVGEM FAVOR A
STRONG RECURVATURE AND CONTINUE THE SYSTEM BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
AFTER TAU 48; THESE MODEL FIELDS DEPICT BINARY INTERACTION WITH A
SECOND CIRCULATION THAT FORMS TO THE EAST AROUND TAU 60. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
GRADUAL RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND A
LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 157.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 157.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.0S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3S 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.5S 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.3S 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 157.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
OVER TOP AND OCCLUDING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDS POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OF THE
LLCC DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR LOOP AND A 031711Z
91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 05P HAS CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER STR LOCATED TO THE WEST, OVER
AUSTRALIA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HOWEVER, THERE IS NO OUTFLOW DUE A
POINT SOURCE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY TAU 12, TC OWEN IS
FORECAST TO TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST BUILDS IN AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. AS
THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD, IT WILL TRACK DIRECTLY INTO THE
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND INCREASED VWS WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THE PERSISTENT, STRONG, VWS WILL
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48. ALTHOUGH ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT THERE IS STILL LARGE VARIATION (110 NM SPREAD AT TAU
48) ON THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. SEVERAL OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS MEMBERS INCLUDING UKMET AND NAVGEM FAVOR A RE-CURVATURE
SCENARIO BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48. THESE MODEL FIELDS
DEPICT A BINARY INTERACTION WITH A SECOND CIRCULATION THAT FORMS TO
THE NORTHEAST BEYOND TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH AN INITIAL SOUTHEAST TRACK DIRECTION. DUE
TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 157.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 157.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.2S 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.6S 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.6S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.2S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 157.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 636 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
PREDOMINANTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW
RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY IS REFLECTIVE OF THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 42
KNOTS. TC 05P CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND
ANOTHER STR LOCATED TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A
ROBUST AND WELL ORGANIZED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS ENHANCED
BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05P
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE IT IS FORECAST TO TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
BUILDING AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. AS THE SYSTEM
TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD, IT WILL TRACK DIRECTLY INTO THE UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES WITH INCREASED VWS WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THE PERSISTENT VWS WILL STEADILY ERODE THE
SYSTEM, LEADING TO FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
DESPITE THE GENERAL AGREEMENT, THERE IS STILL A LARGE SPREAD (150 NM
AT TAU 48) AND THERE ARE DISTINCT VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND
SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE NAVGEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A RE-CURVATURE
SCENARIO BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48 HOWEVER NO OTHER MODELS
PROVIDE A SIMILAR SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH AN INITIAL SOUTHEAST TRACK
DIRECTION. DUE THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST, CONTRARY TO MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 155.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 155.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3S 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.4S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 155.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 571 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING
A COMBINATION OF ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND
A 040546Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. BOTH SOURCES REVEAL A FULLY
EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SMALL
SPINNER CIRCULATIONS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAKE PINPOINTING
THE LLCC MORE DIFFICULT. DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED WELL TO THE EAST
OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH
(15-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05P IS LOCATED BETWEEN A
PAIR OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR), ONE CENTERED TO THE WEST AND
ANOTHER TO THE EAST, WITH THE ONE TO THE EAST APPEARING TO DOMINATE
THE STEERING. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS TC 05P FALLING BELOW 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24,
AND RETURNING TO NEAR WARNING LEVEL BY TAU 120. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SHOWS A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS, UNDER THE COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH
POOR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE HIGH SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 154.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 154.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.4S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 154.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 519 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE USING
A COMBINATION OF ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 041126Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEAL A BROAD,
POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ALMOST NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS HEDGED
BETWEEN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T1.5-T2.5 (25-35 KTS) AND A
041042Z 50KM RESOLUTION OSCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWED 20-25 KT WIND BARBS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE WITH HIGH
(20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DESPITE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS). TC 05P IS TRACKING
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND A STR TO THE EAST.
THE CYCLONE HAS DISSIPATED BELOW 35 KTS. THERE IS A CHANCE IT WILL
REGENERATE TO 35-40 KNOTS SOMETIME AFTER TAU 48 AS IT CONTINUES TO
MEANDER BETWEEN THE STRS. DESPITE THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, LENDING
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 10 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 100100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1S 144.6E TO 14.9S 138.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S 144.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 05P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.4S 147.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 144, APPROXIMATELY 282
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. MULTIPLE MODELS
INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH A WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY. MODELS SHOW 05P TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA
THEN REGENERATING ONCE OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 110100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100100ZDEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4S 141.2E TO 14.6S 135.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 140.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 05P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.1S 144E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102350Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN
ELONGATED BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH AMPLE
FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND IN A BAND WRAPPING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. SSTS ARE FAVORABLY WARM (30-31C) IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK AS IT CONSOLIDATES FURTHER OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WNRCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110051ZDEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 138.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 138.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.7S 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.7S 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.1S 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.2S 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.1S 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.8S 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 138.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 477 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 110926Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE AND
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED, COMPACT (APPROXIMATELY 120NM DIAMETER) LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 (30
KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). ALTHOUGH TC 05P IS UNDER MODERATE TO
STRONG (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, VERY
WARM SST (30-32C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. THEREFORE, TC
05P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU
48. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTH. QUASISTATIONARY MOTION IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 24 AS THE
STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND REORIENT AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC 05P WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
CAPE YORK PENINSULA NEAR TAU 72 AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU
96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA
SUPPORTS THE REGENERATION OF TC 05P, THEREFORE, JTWC HAS RESUMED
WARNINGS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 110100Z).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 14.8S 137.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 137.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.8S 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.0S 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.2S 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.6S 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.0S 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.8S 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.1S 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 137.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 431 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM, WHICH IS CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE
WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE ASSESSED CENTER. RADAR IMAGERY
FROM THE GOVE AND MORNINGTON ISLAND RADARS INDICATE A CLEAR RADAR
EYE FEATURE, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RADAR DATA, AND
IS SUPPORTED BY A 111616Z WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE AND WELL-DEFINED BANDING. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
AND AN AUTOMATED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.6 (36 KNOTS). THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, WITH VWS DECREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE WHILE UPPER
LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. SSTS IN THE AREA
ARE EXTREMELY WARM (31-33C) WITH VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES. TC 05P HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO A COL AREA BETWEEN THE
NER, A SECOND NER OVER THE SOLOMON ISLANDS, A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA. TC
05P WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, DRIFTING
SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST THEN SOUTH AS THE WESTERN NER WEAKENS AND
RETREATS. BY TAU 24, TC 05P WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON A
SOUTHEASTERN TRACK AND ACCELERATE UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF
THE NER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN CORAL SEA AND THE DEEP TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85
KNOTS BY TAU 48. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MADE LANDFALL ALONG
THE EASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, AND DUE TO THE
DISTANCES BETWEEN FORECAST POINTS, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REACH A
HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72.
A POSSIBLE PEAK NEAR 100 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE BASED ON AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 05P WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD, REMAINING OVER LAND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE EASTERN
AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN OVER LAND, IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS
A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH, WHICH WOULD ALLOW IT TO TRACK OVER WATER
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREEING ON EARLY QUASI-
STATIONARY MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT AFTER TAU 24. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
BEYOND TAU 36 AS MODELS HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE STEERING RIDGE
AND ITS ORIENTATION. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 111800Z IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 137.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 137.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.8S 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.0S 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.4S 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.9S 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.0S 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.6S 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 25.3S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 137.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 407 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM, WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)
FEATURE, WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN. RADAR
LOOPS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS
BECOME LESS DISTINCT SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, THOUGH THE BROAD
OUTLINES OF THE CIRCULATION ARE STILL CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE RADAR DATA, IN
LIGHT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING OBSCURED BY THE CDO. A
112124Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE GENERALLY
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE LLCC, BUT DOES PROVIDE SUPPORT TO THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AT 45 KNOTS, AND IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (35 KNOTS), AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0,
AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS. TC 05P REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
VERY HIGH SSTS (31-33C). TC 05P IS SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD UNDER A
WEAK STEERING FLOW, IN THE COL REGION BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA, A SECOND NER
OVER THE SOLOMON ISLANDS, AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM PAPUA
NEW GUINEA TO SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 05P HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY
AS IT HAS ENTERED THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WESTERN NER WEAKENS AND
RETREATS WESTWARD, ALLOWING THE EASTERN NER TO BECOME THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM. BY TAU 24, TC 05P WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON A
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND ACCELERATE UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE
OF THE NER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN CORAL SEA AND THE DEEP TROUGH
OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 48, JUST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA.
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN TAU 48 AND LANDFALL.
AFTER LANDFALL, TC 05P WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD, SKIRTING THE
EASTERN AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER LAND, BUT STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN IT AT
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO REEMERGE INTO THE CORAL SEA BETWEEN TAUS 96 AND 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH ALL
CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATING A PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT,
FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE REMAINS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF ALONG TRACK SPREAD BUT THIS HAS DECREASED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS RUNS, LENDING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 136.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 136.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.1S 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.4S 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.7S 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.4S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.0S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.6S 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 26.3S 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 136.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
HOWEVER, A 120430Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO T3.5 (55 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SST (30-31C) AND HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. THEREFORE, TC 05P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 36. INCREASING VWS
AFTER TAU 24 MAY HINDER INTENSIFICATION SLIGHTLY, HOWEVER, ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD OFFSET THE VWS. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER
TAU 12, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH. TC 05P WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA NEAR TAU 48 AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120 WHILE WEAKENING RAPIDLY. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASING SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW AFTER TAU 72 AND
SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH WEAK
BAROCLINICITY AND GALE FORCE WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
IMPROVED AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING
INFLUENCES, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 136.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 136.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.9S 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.0S 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.1S 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.8S 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.5S 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.9S 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 25.3S 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 136.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
HOWEVER, A 121000Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH, ALONG
WITH RADAR IMAGERY, SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SST (30-31C) AND HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. THEREFORE, TC 05P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 36. INCREASING VWS
AFTER TAU 24 MAY HINDER INTENSIFICATION SLIGHTLY, HOWEVER, ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD OFFSET THE VWS. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER
TAU 12, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH. TC 05P WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA NEAR TAU 48 AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120 WHILE WEAKENING RAPIDLY. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASING SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW AFTER TAU 72 AND
SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH WEAK
BAROCLINICITY AND GALE FORCE WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
IMPROVED AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING
INFLUENCES, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 136.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 136.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.1S 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.1S 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.5S 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.5S 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.0S 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 23.3S 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 25.8S 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 136.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING A 121754Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE WHICH
REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T3.5-T4.0 (55-
65 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 36,
ALLOWING TC 05P TO INTENSIFY TO 90 KTS BEFORE EXITING THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN, RAPIDLY AT FIRST THEN MORE SLOWLY AS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD AND REMAINS ON
SHORE. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TURNING TOWARD AN EASTWARD
TRACK UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE TRACK WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE TRACK REFLECTS A CHANGE IN THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE FROM A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST TO A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY WHILE UNDERGOING SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR TC 05P TO DISSIPATE BY
TAU 120 BUT AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE
TO REMAIN ABOVE WARNING THRESHOLD AS IT COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT WILL BE EMBEDDED IN A REGION WITH WEAK
BAROCLINICITY AND WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, PARTICULARLY IN THE EARLY TAUS, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.2S 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.3S 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.9S 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.2S 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.5S 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.6S 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 136.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 333 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A ROUND 6 NM EYE AT 122010Z THAT HAS
SINCE BECOME RAGGED AND PARTIALLY CLOUD-FILLED WHILE THE RADIUS
INCREASED TO 20 NM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE EVIDENT IN THE EIR AND MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE 122040Z PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77
KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 05P IS CURRENTLY STRADDLING
THE COAST BUT WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA WILL FAVOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER
WATER AND TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 90 KTS BY TAU 24. JUST
AFTER TAU 36, THE CYCLONE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA AGAIN AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY, DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS VERY COMPLEX WITH A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST, A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTH, AND AN EASTWARD MOVING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. ULTIMATELY, ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE NER AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE TC 05P EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE TURNING ONTO A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 96. AROUND TAU 96, A STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, TURNING THE
REMNANTS OF TC 05P INLAND. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR TC 05P TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 BUT A SHIFT IN THE TRACK COULD CAUSE THAT TO
CHANGE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE EARLY
TAUS BUT SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LATER TAUS. BASED ON
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND
140300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 15.1S 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 136.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.0S 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.2S 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.9S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.4S 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 20.2S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.9S 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 136.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 130600Z HIMAWARI
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS HEDGED
BETWEEN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T4.8 (85 KNOTS). TC 05P IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS A GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE AND
ARE GREATER THAN 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 05P IS TRACKING EASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
LOCATED TO THE NORTH. IN THE SHORT TERM THE NER WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER TC 05P TO THE EAST. FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 05P TO INCREASE TO AN INTENSITY OF
90 KNOTS BY TAU 12. BY TAU 36 AN NER TO THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO STEER
TC 05P TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ALSO HELP TO STEER TC 05P TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 05P WILL BE OVER LAND
BY TAU 36 AND WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION WILL ALLOW FOR TC 05P TO
REACH AND INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AND DISSIPATE TO 30 KNOTS
BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT,
INDICATING A EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 15.0S 136.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 136.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.9S 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.3S 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.3S 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.6S 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.2S 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 21.5S 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 137.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
130947Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A PARTIAL MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND KNES AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 73 KNOTS AT 130947Z. TC 05P IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS A
LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE AND
ARE GREATER THAN 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 05P IS TRACKING EASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
LOCATED TO THE NORTH. IN THE SHORT TERM THE NER WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER TC 05P TO THE EAST. FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 05P TO INCREASE TO AN INTENSITY OF
80 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, AN NER TO THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO
STEER TC 05P TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ALSO HELP TO ACCELERATE TC 05P TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 05P WILL
TRACK OVER LAND BY TAU 30 AND WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION. CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION WILL ALLOW FOR TC 05P
TO REACH AND INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AND DISSIPATE TO 30
KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 96, TC 05P WILL SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED AND
BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, INDICATING A EASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER TAU 36.
DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE MODEL SPREAD AFTER
TAU 36 THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 137.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 137.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.1S 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.6S 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.7S 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.9S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 20.0S 148.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.2S 148.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 137.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 406 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A 120 NM WIDE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT IS OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, RADAR DATA FROM
MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA HAS PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS
ALSO FAVORABLE (30-31 CELSIUS). THE INITIAL INTENSIFY OF 75 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS).
TC 05P IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). AFTER TAU 24, INTERACTION WITH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WILL SHIFT
THE CYCLONE TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTER TAU 72, A STR WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURN THE TRACK WESTWARD. TC 05P
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON CAPE
YORK JUST AFTER TAU 24. ONCE OVER LAND, THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AT FIRST, THEN MORE SLOWLY, FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. THE
LATEST MODEL RUN HAD SEVERAL MEMBERS BRINGING THE LLCC BACK OVER
WATER BRIEFLY BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, BUT NO INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND EVERY MEMBER TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK
WESTWARD SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 96. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED JUST WEST OF CONSENSUS, HEDGED TOWARD THE ECMWF TRACK, WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
WESTWARD TURN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 138.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 138.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.4S 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.2S 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.3S 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.5S 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.5S 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.1S 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 138.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 444 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A DIMPLE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING RADAR DATA
FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA WHICH CLEARLY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AND IS ABLE TO GET A LITTLE
RETURN ENERGY TO DISCERN THE LOCATION OF THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. WITH
LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL AROUND TAU 18.
THE INITIAL INTENSIFY OF 75 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS). TC 05P IS TRACKING EASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). AS
THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL OVER CAPE YORK, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTER TAU
72, A STR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS
TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH AND CAUSE TC 05P TO TRACK WESTWARD. TC OWEN
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL THEN WEAKEN
RAPIDLY, FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. SEVERAL NUMERICAL MODELS (MOST
NOTABLY, GFS AND UKMET) BRING THE LLCC BACK OVER WATER BETWEEN TAU
48 AND 72 BEFORE TURNING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED ON CONSENSUS, WHICH MIRRORED THE PREVIOUS JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, INCREASING SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS LENDS
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z,
141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 15.1S 139.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 139.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.4S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.2S 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.2S 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.2S 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.3S 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.9S 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 139.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 140600Z HIMAWARI
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE ALONG WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KNES ALONG WITH AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T4.8 (85
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05P IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS). TC 05P ALSO HAS WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 05P IS
TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTH. IN THE SHORT TERM THE NER WILL CONTINUE
TO STEER TC 05P EASTWARD. TC 05P WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU
12 AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. ALSO BY TAU 24, A NER TO THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO STEER
TC 05P TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
HELP TO ACCELERATE TC 05P SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 05P WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTENSITY. TC
05P WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AND DISSIPATE TO 30 KNOTS BY
TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH EGRR AND
AFUM INDICATING A MORE EASTWARD TRACK WITH THE REMAINING CONSENSUS
MODELS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR BUT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 140.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 140.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.8S 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.6S 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.4S 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.2S 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.3S 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 141.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 141216Z 36GHZ GMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALONG WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM ABRF ALONG WITH A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 66 KNOTS AT
141140Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05P IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS). TC 05P ALSO HAS WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 05P IS
TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTH. IN THE SHORT TERM THE NER WILL CONTINUE
TO STEER TC 05P EASTWARD. TC 05P WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 6 AND
DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 12 DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
ALSO BY TAU 12, AN NER TO THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO STEER TC 05P TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO
ACCELERATE TC 05P SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 05P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTENSITY. TC 05P WILL BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AND DISSIPATE TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NVGM
WHICH INDICATES A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND LAND INTERACTION THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 141.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 141.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.9S 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.8S 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.8S 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 142.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS THAT HAS JUST MADE
LANDFALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND A 141722Z
SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS
BELOW THE KNES AND PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES PRIOR TO
LANDFALL OF T4.5 (77 KTS), BASED ON DIMINISHING CONVECTION AND
UNIMPRESSIVE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOWANYAMA AND NORMANTON AIRPORTS,
LOCATED 50-80 NM FROM THE BEST TRACK POSITION, THAT READ LESS THAN
15 KTS AND GREATER THAN 999 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC
05P IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS).
TC 05P HAS WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, TC 05P RECENTLY MADE LANDFALL ON CAPE YORK, AUSTRALIA,
WHICH HAS LED TO WANING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 05P HAS DIPPED
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AS IT BEGAN TO INTERACT WITH LAND.
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TC
05P TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE NEAR-TERM, THEN WILL TURN TC 05P TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NER RE-ORIENTS. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ALSO HELP TO ACCELERATE TC 05P
SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 05P WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND WILL
LOSE FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA. DESPITE RE-EMERGING OVER WARM WATERS JUST AFTER TAU 24, TC
05P WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 36, HAVING BEEN WEAKENED BY LAND AND
DWINDLING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 136 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 36. AFTER IT EMERGES
OVER WATER IN THE CORAL SEA, GFS PREDICTS A MORE EASTWARD TRACK
FURTHER OUT TO SEA, WHILE NAVGEM DEPICTS A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
THAT SKIRTS THE COAST. ECMWF IS BETWEEN NAVGEM AND THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, AND PREDICTS FASTER ALONG-TRACK MOTION. HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND LAND INTERACTION THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z
AND 152100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 142.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 142.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.0S 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.1S 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.7S 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 143.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM WEST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) DESPITE TRAVERSING THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA OF
AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE EDGE OF THE SMALL CDO FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE SMALL BUT PERSISTENT CDO
FEATURE, IN WHICH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SINCE THE SYSTEM WAS OVER
WATER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05P IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS). TC 05P HAS EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO IMPINGING ON
THE SYSTEM, LIMITING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 05P HAS MOVED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE PAST 6 HOURS, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST. THE NER WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER TC 05P TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL ALSO HELP TO
ACCELERATE TC 05P SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 05P WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER
LAND AND WILL LOSE FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA. DESPITE RE-EMERGING OVER WARM WATERS AROUND TAU 18,
TC 05P WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 36, HAVING BEEN WEAKENED BY LAND AND
DWINDLING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH 136 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 36. AFTER IT EMERGES OVER
WATER IN THE CORAL SEA, GFS PREDICTS A MORE EASTWARD TRACK FURTHER
OUT TO SEA, WHILE NAVGEM DEPICTS A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THAT
SKIRTS THE COAST. ECMWF IS BETWEEN NAVGEM AND THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, AND PREDICTS FASTER ALONG-TRACK MOTION. HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND LAND INTERACTION THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED SOUTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, HEDGED BETWEEN THE ECMWF TRACK AND CONSENSUS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 144.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 144.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.6S 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.2S 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 144.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 106 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE CAIRNS RADAR AND A 150555Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT FRAGMENTED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM GEORGETOWN AIRPORT, APPROXIMATELY 50NM SOUTHWEST,
WHICH SHOWED A MINIMUM SLP VALUE NEAR 999MB (WIND PRESSURE
RELATIONSHIP CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 31 KNOTS SUSTAINED). TC 05P IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN 25-30 KNOT WINDS AS
A WEAK SUBTROPICAL LOW AS IT TRACKS OVER THE CORAL SEA AFTER TAU 12.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_owen.htm | Updated: 27 December 2018 |