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Tropical Cyclone VERONICA
Southern Hemisphere Summary
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Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1S 121.3E TO 16.0S 116.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 121.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 121.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 121.0E, APPROXIMATELY
231 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190105Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 181359Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING IN FROM
THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING
WATERS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 18-30
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200300Z.
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190251ZMAR2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 119.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.2S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.5S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.9S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.9S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.9S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.6S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.3S 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 119.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 546 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191743Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC, WHICH IS POSITIONED UNDER OR JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE CORE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5
TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EVIDENT NEAR 95E IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS WILL SHIFT THE STR
EAST OF THE SYSTEM IN A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION, WHICH WILL
TURN TC 21S ON A MORE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 120. AFTER
TAU 72, A STRONG, BROAD LOW-LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, WHICH WILL SERVE TO SLOW THE SYSTEM ALONG
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND PRODUCE A WESTWARD TRACK CHANGE
AFTER TAU 120. THIS COULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER OR NEAR LEARMONTH.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS ERRONEOUSLY RECURVING THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL HIGH, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 175NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 120 DUE TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING, COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TC 21S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105
KNOTS EXPECTED BY TAU 72 THEN SLIGHT WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM NEARS
THE COAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 190300).//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 15.4S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.0S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.5S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.9S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.3S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.5S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.0S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.5S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 118.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
RECENT PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 192142Z SSMIS PASS SHOWING A
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 21S HAS
STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AIDED BY PASSAGE OVER
WARM WATER, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING AROUND THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, TURNING POLEWARD BY TAU
72. STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR-TERM AS
THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND
RESPONDS TO FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 72, VERTICAL
WINDS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, ARRESTING THE INTENSIFICATION
TREND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
REGARDING A STEADY POLEWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACH TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICT MORE WEAKENING
OFFSHORE AND A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE
WITH A RESULTANT TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST AROUND TAU 120. THE
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE
SCENARIO. GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD, CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 118.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.1S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.6S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.0S 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.4S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.7S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.3S 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 21.9S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 118.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE
BANDING WHICH IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS
BASED ON A 200556Z 36 GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A
FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED
ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES
AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.5. TC 21S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TC 21S TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY TAU 24,
THE STR WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW TC 21S TO BEGIN TO
TURN SOUTHWARD BY TAU 36. FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 21S TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACKERS
SHOW A WESTWARD TURN AT TAU 96 WHILE THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS
SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED TO THE
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND HAS A SPREAD OF 75 NM. HOWEVER, BY TAU
120 THE SPREAD INCREASES TO 280 NM. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z,
210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 117.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 117.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.4S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.9S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.3S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.7S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.3S 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.4S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.1S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 117.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS RAIN
BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER TOWARD A PINHOLE FORMATIVE EYE, ALBEIT
CLOUD-FILLED, THAT HAS BECOME APPARENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EIR SIGNATURE.
TC 21S IS UNDER WEAK (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 29-30C ARE ALSO
CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL ABOUT 100
NM WEST OF PORT HEDLAND JUST AFTER TAU 96. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WILL FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP TO 110 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS THEN LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE
DOWN TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP
TO TAU 48 THEN SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARD, WITH THE ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACKERS DRIVING THE VORTEX DUE WESTWARD.
IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
UP TO TAU 48, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z,
210900Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 117.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 117.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.5S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.0S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.5S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.9S 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.3S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.3S 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.9S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 117.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING WITH TIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 20NM
WIDE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED
BY AN 201852z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWING THE EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW/KNES DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS) AND AN APRF DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102
KNOTS). THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ANALYSIS DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. TC
21S IS LOCATED IN AN EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 29-30C. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 36 AFTER WHICH IT WILL TURN
SOUTHWARD AS THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSITS EASTWARD. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 70NM WEST OF PORT
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 96. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP TO 140 KNOTS
BY TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS FOLLOWED BY LAND INTERACTION
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO AROUND 60 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48 MODEL
SOLUTIONS SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY. ALL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A
WESTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 96 WITH VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND
SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIER IS NAVGEM WHICH TRACKS
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 120. IN LIGHT OF THE SPREAD
AND VARIATIONS IN MODEL FORECASTS, THERE IS STRONG CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM
TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z
IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 16.4S 117.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 117.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.9S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.5S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.9S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.6S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.9S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.8S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.8S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 117.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MUTLISPECTRAL SATELLITE
(MSI) IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WITH STRONG DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT 20NM WIDE EYE FEATURE.
THE ANIMATED MSI LOOP SUGGESTS THAT THE EYE MAY BE WOBBLING AND THE
SYSTEM TOOK AN UN-FORECASTED SHIFT TO A SOUTHWARD TRACK DIRECTION.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY AN 202258Z 91GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 125 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS) AND AN APRF DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115
KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 210010Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 122 KNOTS.
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REFLECTS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS LOCATED IN AN EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENT FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) ALONG
TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO RESUME A SOUTHWEST TRACK DIRECTION THROUGH TAU 36,
AFTER WHICH IT WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE STEERING SUB TROPICAL
RIDGE TRANSITS EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
APPROXIMATELY 50 NM WEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 72.
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP TO 140 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS FOLLOWED BY
LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO AROUND 45 KNOTS BY TAU
120. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36 MODEL SOLUTIONS SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. ALL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A WESTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 96
WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN.
IN LIGHT OF THE LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL FORECASTS AND THE UN-
FORECASTED SOUTHWARD TURN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THERE IS OVERALL
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 49 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 117.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 117.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.4S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.8S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.3S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.1S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.4S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.9S 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.5S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 117.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 221 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A
HIGHLY SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE WITH DEEP RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
A COMPACT CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 10-NM EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE,
ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT POLEWARD TILT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T6.0/115KTS TO T6.5/127KTS AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED INTENSE
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 21S IS UNDER
LOW (5-10KT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 31C ARE ALSO HIGHLY CONDUCIVE.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL ABOUT 30
NM WEST OF PORT HEDLAND AROUND 72. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION UP TO 135 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS THEN LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE
THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 THEN SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARD, WITH
ECMWF DRIVING THE VORTEX DUE WESTWARD AND NAVGEM SOUTHEASTWARD. IN
VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
UP TO TAU 48, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z,
220300Z AND 220900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 17.3S 117.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 117.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.8S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.3S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.0S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.8S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.9S 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.1S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 117.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY AS CENTRAL CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMED AND THE EYE BECAME
OBSCURED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 211005Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLORIZED
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5/102KTS TO
T6.5/127KTS AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO
15KTS; HOWEVER, RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST AND PROVIDES AMPLE
VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT
31C ARE ALSO HIGHLY CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD,
MAKING LANDFALL ABOUT 30 NM WEST OF PORT HEDLAND AROUND TAU 66. THE
OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS THEN LAND INTERACTION
WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120 AS
IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO
TAU 48 THEN SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY VARIOUS DIRECTIONS AFTERWARD. IN
VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP
TO TAU 48, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z,
220900Z AND 221500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 116.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.0S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.6S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.4S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.1S 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.6S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.9S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 116.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF
110 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER HAVE ENABLED TC 21S TO MAINTAIN A
NEARLY STEADY STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC 21S
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STEERING RIDGE,
TOWARD THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, OVER THE NEXT
48 TO 72 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
STORM INTENSITY, PERHAPS INCLUDING SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION,
IN THE NEAR-TERM. BY TAU 72, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A RAPID WEAKENING TREND
COINCIDING WITH POSSIBLE LANDFALL TO THE WEST OF PORT HEADLAND. THE
MEDIUM TO EXTENDED-RANGE STORM TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING,
DURATION AND LOCATION OF THIS ANTICIPATED WEAKENING TREND AS THE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW DEVELOPING LOW TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW TO THE WEST AFTER IT WEAKENS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. THEREAFTER, A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN,
INDICATE WEAKENING AND A WESTWARD TURN PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE PREDICTS THAT LANDFALL WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE TRACK
DIRECTION SHIFTS. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST ANTICIPATES
LANDFALL AND SLOW MOTION WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
AFTER TAU 48, IN LINE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN
THE ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN AND NOTED MODEL
UNCERTAINTY, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48 IS
HIGH, AND LOW THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z
IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 116.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 116.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.2S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.1S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.8S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.4S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.8S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.8S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 116.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
A CLEAR EYE EVIDENT IN 212245Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 220000Z PGTW SATELLITE EYE FIX. THE INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES. TC 21S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
AIDED BY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER. THE SYSTEM IS TURNING POLEWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY
TOWARD A POTENTIAL LANDFALL TO THE WEST OF PORT HEDLAND AROUND TAU
48. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND WARM WATER WILL SUPPORT STORM
INTENSITY, PERHAPS INDUCING SOME INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM.
HOWEVER, BY TAU 48, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, BUT DIVERGES
THEREAFTER. THE TRACK BEYOND TAU 48 IS DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING TREND. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK
FORECAST ANTICIPATES LANDFALL AND SLOW MOTION WITHIN A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 48, IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS JTWC
FORECASTS AND THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN AND NOTED MODEL
UNCERTAINTY, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48 IS
HIGH, AND LOW THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z
IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 116.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 116.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.4S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.3S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.1S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.6S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.9S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 116.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND A 10NM PINHOLE EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE EYE THAT LINED UP PRECISELY WITH A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE PORT HEDLAND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T5.5/102KTS TO T6.0/115KTS FROM REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 21S IS UNDER MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST AND PROVIDES
AMPLE VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT 31C ARE ALSO HIGHLY CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL NOW TURN SOUTHWARD THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL
ABOUT 35 NM WEST OF PORT HEDLAND AROUND TAU 42. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS THEN LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO
TAU 36 THEN SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY IN VARIOUS DIRECTIONS AFTERWARD.
IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
UP TO TAU 36, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z,
230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 18.1S 116.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 116.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.8S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.7S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.4S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.5S 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.6S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 116.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AS CONVECTIVE TOPS
ALONG THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WARMED AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
DIMINISHED, ALBEIT MAINTAINING TIGHT RAIN BANDS AND A 10NM PINHOLE
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE EYE THAT STACKED WELL OVER
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE PORT HEDLAND COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T5.0/90KTS TO T5.5/102KTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF AND REFLECTS
THE WEAKENED EIR SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 21S IS
UNDER MODERATE 15KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET
BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT CAUSED BY TIGHT TROUGHING IS MINIMIZING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND CAUSING CONVECTIVE DEGRADATION. ON THE PLUS SIDE, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT 31C REMAIN HIGHLY CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONE WILL NOW TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR
RECEDES EASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL ABOUT 30 NM WEST OF PORT HEDLAND
AROUND TAU 36. INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION, IN ADDITION TO
THE DIMINISHING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. NUMERIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36 THEN SPREAD OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY IN VARIOUS DIRECTIONS AFTERWARD. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 36, THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS
41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 116.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.9S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.6S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.0S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.3S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.3S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 117.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221414Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT TIGHTLY-
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LARGE CLOUD-FILLED EYE.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE PORT HEDLAND RADAR SHOWS A 15NM SYMMETRIC EYE
WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0 TO 5.5 (90 TO 102
KNOTS). TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK INDUCED STEERING
RIDGE, WHICH IS POSITIONED BETWEEN TC 21S AND TC 20P. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, TC 21S IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANTS MAY TRACK
CLOSE TO LEARMONTH, HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGH CERTAINTY THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A WEAK REMNANT LOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA
AFTER TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEEDS AND TIMING OF THE
WESTWARD TURN WITH A 160NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 18.7S 117.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 117.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.6S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.2S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.5S 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.5S 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.6S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 117.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A LARGE 41NM EYE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.5 TO 5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT
PORT HEDLAND SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. TC 21S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK INDUCED STEERING RIDGE, WHICH IS
POSITIONED BETWEEN TC 21S AND TC 20P. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, TC 21S IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO TRACK WESTWARD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANTS MAY
TRACK CLOSE TO LEARMONTH, HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGH CERTAINTY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A WEAK REMNANT LOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER NORTHWEST
AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 48. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEEDS AND TIMING OF
THE WESTWARD TURN WITH A 95NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 19.0S 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 117.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.8S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.2S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.3S 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.4S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.8S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 117.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RE-ORGANIZING DEEP
CONVECTIVE EYEWALL SURROUNDING A LARGE 60NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.5 TO 5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS), BUT IS BELOW THE
230528Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 94 KTS AND A 230600Z AUTOMATED DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T5.1. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15
TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT SUGGESTED IN THE MSI AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK INDUCED STEERING
RIDGE, WHICH IS POSITIONED BETWEEN TC 21S AND TC 20P. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE SHORT TERM, THEN WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
INCREASING VWS AS IT APPROACHES LAND. AFTER TAU 24, TC 21S IS
FORECAST TO SLOW THEN TRACK WESTWARD AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH
BUILDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANTS
MAY TRACK CLOSE TO LEARMONTH, HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGH CERTAINTY
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A WEAK REMNANT LOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED HIGH VWS
PERSISTING OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 48. OVERALL, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK SPEEDS AND TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN WITH A 235NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS
29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 117.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 117.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.9S 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.2S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.2S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.2S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.7S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 117.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION ENCIRCLING A WIDE
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON
MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5
(102 KTS), 231140Z AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5, AND A 231106Z
SATCON ESTIMATE IS 91 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
THAT HAS EASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION.
TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK INDUCED STEERING RIDGE, WHICH IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TC 21S AND TC 20P. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
INCREASING VWS AS IT APPROACHES LAND. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE MODELS.
AFTER TAU 24, TC 21S IS FORECAST TO SLOW THEN TRACK WESTWARD AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANTS MAY TRACK CLOSE TO LEARMONTH, HOWEVER,
THERE IS A HIGH CERTAINTY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A WEAK REMNANT
LOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED HIGH VWS PERSISTING OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU
48. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEEDS AND TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN
WITH A 130NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THE GFS SOLUTION IS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS, CLOSER TO LAND, WHILE NAVGEM
AND GALWEM ARE TO THE NORTH OF CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z,
240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 19.8S 117.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 117.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.2S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.5S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.6S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.8S 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.0S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 117.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 242 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 25-30NM IRREGULAR EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. DESPITE DRY AIR ENTRAINING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND ERODING DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING, BOTH RADAR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
CORE AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION. CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND CURRENTLY RANGE FROM T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO
T6.5 (127 KNOTS). ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES JUMPED BRIEFLY
TO 6.1 (ABOUT 115 KNOTS) BUT HAVE DECREASED BACK TO 5.3 (ABOUT 100
KNOTS) THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY ASSESS
AND IS CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 105 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST SURFACE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT LEGENDRE ISLAND, ABOUT 50NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER, AND ARE CURRENTLY SUSTAINED AT 57 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS
WITH A SLP VALUE OF 981.8MB. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST WITH
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK INDUCED STEERING RIDGE, WHICH IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TC 21S AND TC 20P. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, TC 21S IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO TRACK WESTWARD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANTS MAY
TRACK CLOSER TO LEARMONTH, HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGH CERTAINTY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A WEAK REMNANT LOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER NORTHWEST
AUSTRALIA (LEARMONTH SOUNDING CURRENTLY SHOWS WESTERLY WINDS OF 45
KNOTS NEAR 300MB). OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEEDS AND TIMING OF
THE WESTWARD TURN WITH A 144NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 20.1S 117.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 117.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.4S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.5S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.6S 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.9S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.5S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 117.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 231 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 15-20NM IRREGULAR EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. DESPITE DRY AIR ENTRAINING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND ERODING DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING, BOTH RADAR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A MOIST
CORE AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, THE CORE HAS REMAINED
OVER WATER AND THE TERRAIN OVER THIS COASTAL REGION IS RELATIVELY
FLAT AND MOIST. CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
INCREASED AND CURRENTLY RANGE FROM T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T6.0 (115
KNOTS). ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES JUMPED BRIEFLY TO 6.2
(ABOUT 118 KNOTS) BUT HAVE DECREASED BACK TO 5.7 (ABOUT 110 KNOTS)
THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY ASSESS AND IS
CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS
OCCURRED AT LEGENDRE ISLAND AT 232103Z, ABOUT 40NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER, WITH PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) AT 61
KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS (NOTE THAT OBSERVATION REPORTS CEASED AT
232230Z LIKELY DUE TO SENSOR PROBLEMS). POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
ROBUST WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE WESTERLIES TO
THE SOUTH AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12 ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK INDUCED STEERING RIDGE, WHICH IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TC 21S AND TC 20P. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
TC 21S IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE REMNANTS MAY TRACK CLOSER TO LEARMONTH, HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGH
CERTAINTY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A WEAK REMNANT LOW DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA (LEARMONTH SOUNDING CURRENTLY SHOWS WESTERLY
WINDS OF 45 KNOTS NEAR 300MB). OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEEDS AND
TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN WITH A 206NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 117.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 117.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.6S 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.7S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.9S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.4S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.9S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 117.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 231 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DEFORMING SYSTEM
WITH DEEP, BUT INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL CONVECTION, THAT IS
MAINTAINING A SMALL EYE. THE EYE REMAINS OVER WATER, AND THE NEARBY
TERRAIN IS FLAT AND RELATIVELY MOIST WITH MANY RIVER BASINS, BUT
CONVECTION IS STILL STRONGEST IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM
THAT REMAINS OVER WATER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE ON THE PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, RADAR LOOP AND SMALL EYE
IN MSI SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105
KTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE LAND INTERACTION AND
STRUCTURAL DEFORMATION. MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T5.0 (90 KTS) TO T6.0 (115 KTS), THOUGH THE
FINAL T NUMBERS ARE DROPPING. A 240559Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 110 KTS.
OBSERVATIONS FROM PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER, READ SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KTS AND SURFACE
PRESSURE OF 993MB. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST WITH A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH AND LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THEN BEGIN A TURN TO THE WEST AND ACCELERATE AFTER
TAU 12 AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
WILL SKIRT THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, POSSIBLY EVEN
BRIEFLY MAKING LANDFALL, AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AS IT MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES LEARMONTH, STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE
SYSTEM AND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK SPEEDS, SOME NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD, AND TIMING OF THE WESTWARD
TURN, WITH A 144NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THE ECMWF, UKMET,
AND GALWEM SOLUTIONS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS TO THE SOUTH. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z,
242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 20.7S 117.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 117.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.0S 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.2S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.5S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.8S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.5S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 117.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRUGGLING, COMPACT BALL
OF CENTRAL CONVECTION, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST ON
LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE ON THE
EMBEDDED CENTER IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 85 KTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE LAND INTERACTION AND
CONTINUALLY DIMINISHING CONVECTION AND STRUCTURE. A 240559Z SATCON
ESTIMATE PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL AT 241052Z WAS 79 KTS.
241200Z OBSERVATIONS FROM ROEBOURNE AERO STATION READ 46 KTS
SUSTAINED WIND AND 994MB MSLP. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST WITH
A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO ITS SOUTH, AND LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND HAS NOT YET REALIZED THE PREDICTED TURN TO THE WEST.
THE SYSTEM WILL NOW TRACK FURTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED,
LEADING TO FASTER WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND INCREASING VWS, THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. WHILE
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES LEARMONTH, STRONGER WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT
FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEEDS, SOME NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD, AND TIMING
OF THE WESTWARD TURN, WITH A 210NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 20.4S 117.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 117.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.7S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.0S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.4S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.9S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 117.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 231 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO HIGH (25 TO 30 KNOTS)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 241946Z GMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT POSITION HAS BEEN
RELOCATED SLIGHTLY (ABOUT 30NM) NORTH-NORTHWEST FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING AT 24/12Z. THIS IS BASED ON EXTENSIVE ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA.
SPECIFICALLY, A 241400Z BYU HIRES ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER OVER WATER WITH 50-60 KNOT WINDS; A 241400Z ASCAT NORMALIZED
RADAR CROSS SECTION IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC IN THE SAME
LOCATION; RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE
POSITION OVER WATER WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE COAST
AND WINDS FROM PORT HEDLAND AND BEDOUT ISLAND LINED UP WITH THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT
HEDLAND AND ROEBOURNE AIRPORT INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS AT 30-35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 40-45 KNOTS, REFLECTING THE RAPID DECAY OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY HIGHER
BASED ON DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.5 TO 4.0 (55 TO 65
KNOTS), HOWEVER, THE GMI IMAGE SUGGESTS LOWER INTENSITY VALUES. TC
21S IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES WITH HIGH VWS AND
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPID WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLY, LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF LEARMONTH, THE
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE ENHANCED EASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS OF 25-30
KNOTS OVER LEARMONTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND TRACK SPEEDS WITH
A 150NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z,
251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 20.5S 117.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 117.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.8S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.2S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.6S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.0S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 117.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. BOTH THE 242206Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND RADAR
IMAGERY FROM THE PORT HEDLAND RADAR REVEAL SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
RAINBANDS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED PRIMARILY ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM ROEBOURNE AIRPORT, APPROXIMATELY 25NM SOUTHWEST OF
THE CURRENT CENTER, WHICH ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHEASTERLY AT 41 KNOTS
SUSTAINED (10-MINUTE AVERAGE). TC 21S IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLIES WITH HIGH VWS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPID
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE ENHANCED EASTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS OVER LEARMONTH. OVERALL, THERE IS NOW
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 75NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS
11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 117.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.6S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.1S 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.6S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 116.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WITH CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 75 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
FULLY EXPOSED LLCC SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED
PRIMARILY ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ROEBOURNE AIRPORT,
APPROXIMATELY 20 NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC, WHICH REPORTED 36 KTS
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 250600Z AND WERE 40 KTS SUSTAINED WINDS AT
250300Z. TC 21S IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES WITH
HIGH VWS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPID WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLY, LAND INTERACTION AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF
LEARMONTH, THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE ENHANCED EASTERLY GRADIENT
WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS OVER LEARMONTH. OVERALL, THERE IS NOW HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 110NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 116.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.8S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.4S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.1S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 116.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 75 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FULLY
EXPOSED LLCC SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, BETWEEN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ROEBOURNE AIRPORT AND OTHER LOCAL STATIONS
APPROXIMATELY 20-25 NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC WHICH REPORT 33-35 KTS OF
SUSTAINED WINDS, AND MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KTS). TC 21S IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES WITH HIGH VWS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPID WEAKENING
AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED TO
THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, LAND INTERACTION, HIGH VWS, AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTH OF LEARMONTH, THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE ENHANCED
EASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS OVER LEARMONTH. OVERALL,
THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 100NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND
261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 20.4S 116.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 116.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.1S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.6S 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 116.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
WEAKENING BUT STILL FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER LAND 70 NM
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLC IN THE EIR ANIMATION THAT MATCHED WITH
THE LLC FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM PORT HEDLAND. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUSTAINED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON ASSESSMENT OF
AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND REFLECTS AN LLC THAT REMAINS INTACT DESPITE BEING VOID OF
CONVECTION. TC 21S IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES WITH
HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE
SAME STRONG WESTERLIES ARE PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE
SHEARED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE VWS WILL GET EVEN
STRONGER, DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM BY TAU 24, POSSIBLY SOONER. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF LEARMONTH, THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE
ENHANCED EASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS OVER LEARMONTH.
NUMERIC TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 026A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 026A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 20.9S 115.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 115.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.5S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.0S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 115.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS FULLY
EXPOSED AND STRIPPED OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DEFINED LLC IN THE EIR THAT
MATCHED PERFECTLY WITH AN LLC FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
FROM LEARMONTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH
END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND NEARBY SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS,
INCLUDING THOSE FROM VARANUS ISLAND, 153M TO THE NORTHWEST, AND
KARRATHA AIRFIELD, 15NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE MAINLY DUE TO STRONG (GREATER THAN 30KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED WARNING NUMBER FROM
WARNING NR 27 TO WARNING NR 26.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_veronica.htm | Updated: 20 May 2019 |