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Tropical Cyclone WALLACE
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Tropical Cyclone WALLACE Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 040130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9S 131.2E TO 11.2S 126.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.1S 130.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2S
133.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 160.4E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM NORTH
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH OF A
DEVELOPING NOTCH FEATURE. A 032117Z WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS DEFINITIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLC
FROM THE SOUTH. 97S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE WHILE INTENSIFYING TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050130Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040121APR2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 11.4S 128.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 128.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 11.9S 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 12.4S 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.8S 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.4S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.9S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.9S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.8S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 128.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST-CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, ALBEIT WITH ITS DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC AND ON A RAGGED AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION
FEATURE IN THE RADAR LOOP FROM DARWIN WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY OF
T2.5/35KTS FROM ADRM AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RECENT SMAP IMAGE
SHOWING 32KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET
BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL.
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH (STH) TO THE SOUTHEAST ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC 23S
WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER
TAU 72 AS THE STH ADJUSTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70KTS BY
TAU 96, AIDED BY SSTS RISING UP TO 30C IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN OFF
PORT HEDLAND. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL TRIGGER A WEAKENING
TREND DOWN TO 50KTS BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK WITH ECMWF THE RIGHT-OF-
TRACK OUTLIER BEYOND TAU 48 AND NAVGEM THE LEFT-OF TRACK OUTLIER
BEYOND TAU 36. IN VIEW OF THESE AND GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF
THE CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC WARNING
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 040130).//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 127.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 127.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 12.3S 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 12.9S 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 13.4S 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.9S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.7S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.4S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.2S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 126.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207
NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
DEPICTS ISOLATED, DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND SHALLOW RAIN BANDS.
THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A NOTCH FEATURE SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION IN MULTIPLE CHANNELS OF A 050539Z ATMS MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH APRF AND
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET
BY HIGH (25-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IS SUPPORTIVE (29-30 CELSIUS). TC 23S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). BY TAU 72, THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR
AXIS. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. BY TAU 96, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY CAUSING WEAKENING TO 50 KTS BY TAU 120.
SEVERAL MEMBERS IN THE CONSENSUS DEPICT A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE STR
AXIS, CAUSING A SIMILAR SHIFT IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECASTS.
NAVGEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A POLEWARD TURN AROUND TAU 24 AND REMAINS
AN OUTLIER. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH SPREAD
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 11.8S 126.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 126.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 12.1S 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.6S 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.0S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.8S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.5S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.8S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.9S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 126.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261
NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 050955Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BEING OBSCURED
BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
SSMIS IMAGE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND APRF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). DESPITE EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE,
THE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES ARE MARGINAL OVERALL THANKS TO HIGH (25-
30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 23S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU
48, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE TC ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VWS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 BUT THERE IS A CHANCE VWS WILL REMAIN
STRONG, SUPPRESSING INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND MODERATE-TO-STRONG VWS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
WEAKENING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT, BUT SPREAD REMAINS HIGH (ABOUT 468 NM BETWEEN ECMWF AND
NAVGEM AT TAU 120). ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
WHILE NAVGEM DEPICTS A MORE POLEWARD TRACK, OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN
THE EXTENSION OF THE STR AXIS BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH
SPREAD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 11.5S 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 11.9S 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.5S 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.0S 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.7S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.3S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.3S 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.8S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 125.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311 NM WEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 051647Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BURGEONING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)
FEATURE THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE LLCC IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO, AS HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS PUSHING THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE ON THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS BETWEEN THE PGTW
AND APRF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND
T3.0 (45 KTS), WHILE A 051244Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 45 KTS. DESPITE
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, HIGH (25-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
CONVERGENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE HINDERING
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. TC 23S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS
THE STR RE-ORIENTS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. AFTER TAU 96, LOW-LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BUILD
IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, PUSHING TC 23S TO A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VWS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
MODERATE-TO-STRONG VWS, AND MARGINAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS CONSISTENTLY
PREDICTED A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND IS NORTH OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. NAVGEM IS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND THE ONLY MODEL
TRACK THAT NOW DEPICTS LANDFALL INTO NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA.
HOWEVER, THE NAVGEM TRACK WOULD DIRECTLY OPPOSE LOW-LEVEL STEERING
FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS THEREFORE DEEMED
UNREALISTIC. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT TRACK SPREAD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 11.7S 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.1S 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.7S 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.4S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.1S 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.6S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.7S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.4S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 124.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 344 NM WEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) IMAGE DEPICTS A STRUGGLING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BEING
SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE ON THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE SOMEWHAT OBSCURED LLCC IN THE MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS BETWEEN THE PGTW AND APRF AND KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND T3.0 (45 KTS),
WHILE A 052005Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 52 KTS. DESPITE EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONVERGENCE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE HINDERING SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. TC 23S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH.
AFTER TAU 36, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
RE-ORIENTS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 96, LOW-LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BUILD IN TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, PUSHING TC 23S TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VWS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
MODERATE-TO-STRONG VWS, AND MARGINAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. THE ECMWF, UKMET, AND GALWEM MODELS ARE
CONSISTENTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. NAVGEM IS
THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND DEPICTS LANDFALL AROUND TAU 96 NEAR PORT
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. THE LATEST RUN OF GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COAST
OF AUSTRALIA NEAR LEARMONTH. THESE MODELS DO NOT BUILD THE LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH IN AS QUICKLY AS DO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT
ARE NORTH OF CONSENSUS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED BETWEEN
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE NORTHERN MODEL GROUPING OF ECMWF,
UKMET, AND GALWEM, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT TRACK
SPREAD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 12.3S 124.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 124.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.7S 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.3S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.0S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.9S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.2S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.9S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.4S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 123.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 833 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 060502Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE
INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC WITH A DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED TO THE WEST DUE TO THE STRONG (25 TO 30
KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 40-45
KNOT WINDS, WHICH COINCIDES WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM KNES AND APRF. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PHASE OF THE
FORECAST WITH A 123NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. TC 23S SHOULD
SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS AS VWS GRADUALLY DECREASES.
AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND ERODES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SPLITS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A LARGE
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, ABOUT 430NM AT TAU 120. THE BULK OF THE MODELS
TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR
WHILE ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATE A STEADY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN
TOWARD THE BREAK, WHICH ALL MODELS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER TAU 72;
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL SERVE TO SLOW AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG WESTERLIES OVER LEARMONTH AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z
AND 070900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 123.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.0S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.7S 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.4S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.2S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.3S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.0S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 17.5S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 123.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 061253Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST WITH A 85NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 36. TC 23S SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY
TAU 48 AS VWS GRADUALLY DECREASES. AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
ERODES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SPLITS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, ABOUT 380NM
AT TAU 120 EXCLUDING NAVGEM, WHICH IS ERRONEOUSLY RECURVING THE
SYSTEM INTO THE STR. THE BULK OF THE MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR WHILE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATE A STEADY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE
JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE BREAK, WHICH
ALL MODELS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER TAU 72; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL
SERVE TO SLOW AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG WESTERLIES OVER LEARMONTH
AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 121.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 121.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.6S 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.4S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.2S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.9S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.9S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 17.6S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.0S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 121.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 709 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OBSCURED BY THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IN THE EIR LOOP. A 061730Z
AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE POSITION AND REVEALS A
RAGGED LLCC AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST WITH A 110NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 36. TC 23S SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY
TAU 36 AS VWS GRADUALLY DECREASES, SUPPORTED BY ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS).
THE LATE-TERM STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX, WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR
TO THE EAST AND BRINGING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM,
WHILE ANOTHER STR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST; HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT
THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAKENED, AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO SOUTHEASTERLY
LOWER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE
SOUTHEAST, AND LATER, RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BRING INCREASED VWS AND CONVERGENCE
ALOFT, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48 WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS, ABOUT 310NM AT TAU 120 EXCLUDING NAVGEM, WHICH
ERRONEOUSLY RECURVES THE SYSTEM INTO THE STR. GALWEM, THE UKMET
MODEL, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE BREAK BETWEEN THE STRS WHILE ECMWF, THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND NOW GFS INDICATE A STEADY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE BREAK IN THE STRS TO DEVELOP BY TAU
72 EXCEPT FOR ECMWF, WHICH DOES NOT PREDICT THE BREAK UNTIL AFTER
TAU 96. THE GFS SOLUTION, HOWEVER, DOES NOT TURN THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE BREAK, FAVORING THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW OR SOUTHERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW FROM THE STR TO THE WEST AS
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCES INSTEAD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST SLOWS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLIES, AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, POSITIONED
BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS. IT IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTHWARD BY THE OUTLIER
NAVGEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 12.8S 120.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 120.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.2S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.1S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 14.9S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.5S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.4S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.0S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.8S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 120.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DIMINISHED DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO
THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP, AND ON A 062232Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE
OF A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES, THOUGH THE APRF ESTIMATE INCREASED TO T3.5 (55
KTS) AND A 062233Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 48 KTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU
36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PHASE
OF THE FORECAST WITH A 100NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. TC 23S
SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS VWS
GRADUALLY DECREASES, SUPPORTED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS). THE LATE-TERM
STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX, WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO THE EAST
AND BRINGING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM, WHILE ANOTHER
STR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST; HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE WEAKENED, AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW FROM A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST,
AND LATER, RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BRING INCREASED VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48 WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, ABOUT
310 NM AT TAU 120 EXCLUDING NAVGEM, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY RECURVES THE
SYSTEM INTO THE STR. GALWEM, THE UKMET MODEL, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE
TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE BREAK BETWEEN
THE STRS WHILE ECMWF, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND GFS INDICATE A STEADY
WESTWARD TRACK, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS TRENDED NORTH TOWARDS
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE BREAK IN THE
STRS TO DEVELOP BY TAU 72 EXCEPT FOR ECMWF, WHICH DOES NOT PREDICT
THE BREAK UNTIL AFTER TAU 96. THE GFS SOLUTION, HOWEVER, DOES NOT
TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE BREAK, FAVORING THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OR SOUTHERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW FROM THE
STR TO THE WEST AS DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCES INSTEAD.
ADDITIONALLY, THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS STAY NORTH OF THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND MAINTAIN A FASTER TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, POSITIONED BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS, AND SLOWS AT
LATER TAUS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES MOVING
OVERHEAD. IT IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
WHICH IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTHWARD BY THE OUTLIER NAVGEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 12.9S 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 119.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.5S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.5S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.4S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.1S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.7S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.1S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 119.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 648 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 070545Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A
DEFINED LLCC WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER
THE CENTER AND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
(20-25 KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). OVERALL,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. DUE TO THE SHEARED
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
CONSERVATIVELY AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T3.0 TO T3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY WITH DECREASING VWS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IN
ADDITION TO WARM SST (30-31C). TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 48, TC 23S SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD
AND SLOW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 105NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96.
CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TC 23S IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS
BY TAU 36, HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO
DEGRADE AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW, HIGHER VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THUS, A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND WILL BEGIN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 13.2S 118.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 118.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.0S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.0S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.7S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.1S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.1S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.0S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 118.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070956Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LLCC WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE CENTER AND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0 TO
3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY
WITH DECREASING VWS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO WARM
SST (30-31C). TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU
48, TC 23S SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD AND SLOW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING
TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO
ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA,
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 48. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 23S IS STILL EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36, HOWEVER,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO DEGRADE AFTER TAU 36 AS
THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, HIGHER VWS AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THUS, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND
081500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 117.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 117.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.8S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.7S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.1S 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.2S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.4S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.9S 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 117.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 557 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST PERSISTING OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 071531Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-REFLECTIVITY LLCC WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE CENTER DUE TO MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). OVERALL, THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATING THE LLCC IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE, AS THE
LLCC IS STILL OBSCURED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE
OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO 3.5 (45
TO 55 KNOTS), AND A 071343Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH DECREASING VWS AND ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-
31 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU
36, TC 23S SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD AND SLOW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING
TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO
ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA,
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 48.
CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU
24, HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEGRADE AFTER
TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW,
INCREASING VWS, DRIER AIR, AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THUS, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36, AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY
TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 116.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 116.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.2S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.8S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.2S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.4S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.2S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.7S 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 116.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 464 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PERSISTING OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 072220Z SSMIS COLORPCT 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS BETTER
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATING THE LOW-
REFLECTIVITY LLCC IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO 4.0 (45 TO 65
KNOTS) FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF, A 072220Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 53
KTS, AND A 072340Z AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 61 KTS.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH DECREASING VWS
AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS), ALLOWING FOR THE SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. TC 23S HAS A NARROW WINDOW TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. IT IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO
60 KTS BY TAU 12, THEN BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 24 AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, INCREASING VWS, DRIER
AIR, AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. TC 23S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, TC 23S SHOULD TURN
MORE WESTWARD AND SLOW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-
TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 48. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTH
BY NAVGEM. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS THEREFORE PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AHEAD OF AND NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, HEDGED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, AT LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z,
082100Z AND 090300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 116.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 116.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.2S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.7S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.1S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.3S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.3S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 116.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 434 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 080446Z GMI
37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES AN ORGANIZED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO 4.0 (65 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH DECREASING VWS (10-15 KNOTS)
AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO WARM SST (29-30C). TC
23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 36 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU
36, TC 23S SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO
ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 50NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TC 23S IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS
BY TAU 12, HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO
DEGRADE AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW, HIGHER VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THUS, A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND WILL BEGIN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 16.1S 115.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 115.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.8S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.3S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.6S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.8S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 17.7S 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 115.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DEVELOPING
EYE. A 081055Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLORPCT MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A
SMALL, APPROXIMATELY 50-60NM, SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE
THE SYSTEM HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A MIDGET WITH A DEVELOPING EYE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS, WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END
OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO
4.0 (65 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH DECREASING
VWS (15 KNOTS) AND A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, IN ADDITION TO
WARM SST (29-30C). TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, TC 23S SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH
CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD, NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 45NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 72. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TC 23S IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A
PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 12, HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECASTED TO DETERIORATE BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, HIGHER VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THUS, A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU
72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 115.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 115.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.1S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.4S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.8S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 17.9S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.8S 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 114.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 342 NM NORTH OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081728Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES A SMALL, APPROXIMATELY 50-60NM, SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE
WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS, WHICH IS ABOVE THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES AND THE 081728Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS, HOWEVER, IT IS BELOW THE 1930Z ADT
ESTIMATE OF 74 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE MAINTAINED WITH
LOW VWS (15 KNOTS) AND A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, IN
ADDITION TO WARM SST (29-30C). TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, TC 23S SHOULD TURN
MORE WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-
LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 50NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO DETERIORATE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, HIGHER VWS AND CONVERGENCE
ALOFT. THUS, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH DISSIPATION
EXPECTED BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 114.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 114.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.5S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.8S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.0S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.3S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.9S 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 114.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 090000Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 082112Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS. TC 23S IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 23S IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. AS TC 23S TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE TC 23S TO
STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z
IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 114.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 114.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.4S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.8S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 17.0S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 114.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITHIN AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH ASCAT
DATA FROM 090101Z AND 090213Z, WHICH INDICATED 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LLCC. TC 23S HAS
RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH HAS DISPLACED THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. TC 23S IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SITUATED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND DISSIPATE UNDER
PERSISTENT VWS. BASED ON OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND AND EXPECTED VWS
PATTERN, THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 36 HOURS. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH DEPICTS A MORE INTENSE SYSTEM
TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGHOUT AND BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN
THE CURRENT INTENSITY TREND AND ANTICIPATED IMPACT OF PERSISTENT VWS,
THE NAVGEM OUTLIER SCENARIO IS CONSIDERED VERY UNLIKELY. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND CURRENT
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z,
100300Z AND 100900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 113.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 113.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.2S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 17.6S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.7S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 112.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A
BROAD MICROWAVE EYE IN A 091521Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND T3.5 (55 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW. ADDITIONAL ESTIMATES SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH A
091710Z SATCON OF 41 KNOTS AND AN 091910Z ADT OF 39 KNOTS. TC 23S
WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG (20-30 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TC 23S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
RIDGE PERIPHERY. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS
TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT DISSIPATES. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 113.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 113.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.2S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 17.6S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.7S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 112.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A
BROAD MICROWAVE EYE IN A 091521Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND T3.5 (55 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW. ADDITIONAL ESTIMATES SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH A
091710Z SATCON OF 41 KNOTS AND AN 091910Z ADT OF 39 KNOTS. TC 23S
WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG (20-30 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TC 23S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
RIDGE PERIPHERY. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS
TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT DISSIPATES. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.2S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.5S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 111.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 344 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALED THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED, WITH
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DATA-T
OF T2.5 AND T2.5 CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES FROM KNES AND APRF.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 20-25 KNOTS, AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS TO 35 KNOTS OR HIGHER.
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SHEAR, TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z
IS 13 FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_wallace.htm | Updated: 20 May 2019 |